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20240516_海通证券_有色金属行业：全球降息周期序幕已拉开_25页.pdf

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20240516_海通证券_有色金属行业：全球降息周期序幕已拉开_25页.pdf

SAC S0850522120002 SAC S0850520010002 2024 5 16 81094 5 10 2372.45/28.64/3.40%8.08%556.34/7.40/1.93%5.67%5 15 25 3.75%5 ISM PMI 49.4 51.4-0.4%5 3-5 10 LME 1.3%-1.2%1.3%SHFE-1.5%0.7%3.1%5 10 LME 10040/2521/2945/23.1 2023 8 5 9 SMM 0.25 40.22 4 24%SMM 4 52893 24%1-4 17.0 35%SMM 5 60688 15%SMM 4 35570 30%1-4 10.3 11%SMM 5 35290 1%5 10 40.63/4 30-5 10 0.6%1.3%4.0%2 0YAZwPrMpMqRrPnOqNpQrQ7NcM8OsQoOmOmQfQqQrMlOqRoQaQnNwPxNoOrNxNnMsO3 Wind 2024/5/3 2024/5/10/12.05 11.80-2.1%/11.30 11.10-1.8%/10.04 10.01-0.4%LME/1.92 1.91-0.9%SHFE/14.31 14.48 1.1%/3.24 3.24 0.0%/970.00 970.00 0.0%/21.60 20.50-5.1%MB/13.08 12.93-1.1%MB/16.50 16.50 0.0%LME/9914 10040 1.3%LME/2551 2521-1.2%LME/2908 2945 1.3%LME/2219 2226 0.3%LME/3.20 3.21 0.3%SHFE/8.22 8.10-1.5%SHFE/2.06 2.07 0.7%SHFE/2.35 2.37 0.9%SHFE/1.74 1.81 4.1%SHFE/26.00 26.81 3.1%A00/2.05 2.06 0.6%/3466.00 3603.00 4.0%2024/5/3 2024/5/10/2294.45 2372.45 3.4%/26.50 28.64 8.1%COMEX/2310.10 2366.90 2.5%COMEX/26.79 28.40 6.0%/40.37 40.63 0.6%:45%-50%/3585.00 3765.00 5.0%/10.01 10.40 4.0%/0.21 0.21 0.0%/0.66 0.66-0.3%:55%/13.95 14.55 4.3%:50/9950.00 9950.00 0.0%:99.999%/7000.00 7000.00 0.0%99.6%/52.70 52.70 0.0%/2300.00 2270.00-1.3%/1.39 1.44 3.6%/1.98 2.01 1.7%:99.99%/5.80 5.80 0.0%:99.995%/2675.00 2925.00 9.3%1.5/3-5/10 4.17%2.2.1 5/3-5/10 2.1%2.2 LME 5/3-5/10 1.3%2.3 5/3-5/10 3.40%2.4 5/3-5/10 0.6%3.4.4 HyaZU3nAWOMopOKij3yCbZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MOxYijuHFxf4Jm5xfkZdtas 1.5/3-5/10 4.17%2.2.1 5/3-5/10 2.1%2.2 LME 5/3-5/10 1.3%2.3 5/3-5/10 3.40%2.4 5/3-5/10 0.6%3.4.5 6 Wind 2024.5.3-2024.5.10 5/3-5/10 4.17%2024.5.3-2024.5.10 2024.5.3-2024.5.10 4.17%1.62%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%A 0%2%4%6%8%10%0%2%4%6%8%7 Wind 2024.5.3-2024.5.10 5/3-5/10 4.17%2024.5.3-2024.5.10 2024.5.3-2024.5.10 0%4%8%12%16%20%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%-5%0%5%Allkem Pilbara SQM 8 1.5/3-5/10 4.17%2.2.1 5/3-5/10 2.1%2.2 LME 5/3-5/10 1.3%2.3 5/3-5/10 3.40%2.4 5/3-5/10 0.6%3.4.9 Wind 5/3-5/10 2.1%/010203040506022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04 10.210.410.610.811.011.211.411.6M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+82024/05/10 2024/05/0361014182222/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM81148121620102030405022/10 22/12 23/02 23/04 23/06 23/08 23/10 23/12 24/02 24/04NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 10 Wind/LME SHFE LME 5/3-5/10 0.9%MB 0102022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04LME SHFE 9001100130015001700345622/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04/10203040502030405022/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02/MB/MB/01020300.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.522/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02 24/05LME/SHFE/14.014.114.214.314.414.514.614.714.8M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/05/03 2024/05/10 11 1.5/3-5/10 4.17%2.2.1 5/3-5/10 2.1%2.2 LME 5/3-5/10 1.3%2.3 5/3-5/10 3.40%2.4 5/3-5/10 0.6%3.4.12 Wind LME 5/3-5/10 1.3%/LME SHFE 5678960008000100001200022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05LME/SHFE/020406022/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/12 22/12 22/12 22/12 22/12 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/12 23/12 23/12 23/12 23/12 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/05 24/05LME SHFE SHFE COMEX 7.588.5M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/05/03 2024/05/10 13 Wind LME 5/3-5/10 1.2%A00/LME SHFE 1.41.82.22.615002500350022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05LME/SHFE/0408012016022/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/12 22/12 22/12 22/12 22/12 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/12 23/12 23/12 23/12 23/12 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/05 24/05LME SHFE COMEX 20003000400012322/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05A00/1.801.851.901.952.002.052.10M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+82024/05/03 2024/05/10 14 Wind LME 5/3-5/10 1.3%LME SHFE LME SHFE LME SHFE 1.52.53.5200030004000500022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05LME/SHFE/020406022/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/12 22/12 22/12 22/12 22/12 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/12 23/12 23/12 23/12 23/12 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/05 24/05LME SHFE 102030401234522/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05LME/SHFE/0400080001200016000200002400022/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/12 22/12 22/12 22/12 22/12 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/12 23/12 23/12 23/12 23/12 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/05 24/05LME SHFE 1.31.41.51.61.71.81.915002000250022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 24/05LME/SHFE/01020304022/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/05 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/06 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/07 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/08 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/09 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/10 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/12 22/12 22/12 22/12 22/12 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/01 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/02 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/03 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/04 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/05 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/06 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/07 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/08 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/09 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/10 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/11 23/12 23/12 23/12 23/12 23/12 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/01 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/02 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/03 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/04 24/05 24/05LME SHFE 15 1.5/3-5/10 4.17%2.2.1 5/3-5/10 2.1%2.2 LME 5/3-5/10 1.3%2.3 5/3-5/10 3.40%2.4 5/3-5/10 0.6%3.4.16 Wind CPI%COMEX SHFE 5/3-5/10 3.40%35037039041043045047049051053055057059015001700190021002300250022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03COMEX/SHFE/8090100110120160017001800190020002100220023002400250022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04/3500450055006500750085001520253022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03COMEX/SHFE/0123456024681022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11 CPI 17 Wind 5/3-5/10 83.36 SPDR iShares ETF%34566070809010022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04/-3-2-1012322/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04 10Y-2Y 10Y-3M 01002003004005006007008009000123456789102004 2009 2014 2019 2024:3804304805308001000120022/05 22/11 23/05 23/11SPDR ETF iShares ETF 18 1.5/3-5/10 4.17%2.2.1 5/3-5/10 2.1%2.2 LME 5/3-5/10 1.3%2.3 5/3-5/10 3.40%2.4 5/3-5/10 0.6%3.4.19 Wind 5/3-5/10 0.6%/355575951150.00.51.01.52.022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04/567891010002000300040005000600022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04:45%-50%/910111213148000850090009500100001050022/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04:5 0/:5 5%/1800200022002400455565758522/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04 99.6%/024601222/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04 1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003456722/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04:9 9.9 9%/:9 9.9 9 5%/20 1.5/3-5/10 4.17%2.2.1 5/3-5/10 2.1%2.2 LME 5/3-5/10 1.3%2.3 5/3-5/10 3.40%2.4 5/3-5/10 0.6%3.4.21 60()Mali Lithium 2024-5-8 3.427 Leo Lithium Mali Lithium 40%Mali Lithium 5%Mali Lithium 100%2024-5-8 5 3.5 4 1.5 2.5 2024-5-10 60%1 60%3000 100%22 1.5/3-5/10 4.17%2.2.1 5/3-5/10 2.1%2.2 LME 5/3-5/10 1.3%2.3 5/3-5/10 3.40%2.4 5/3-5/10 0.6%3.4.23 SAC S0850522120002 021-23219406 Email SAC S0850520010002 021-23154394 Email 24 021-23219383 Email 021-23185845 Email 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%25

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