银 行 角 度 看 央 行 1 季 度 货 币 报 告:重 信 贷 质 量 而 非 数 量；增 加 对 通 胀 考 量 行业名称 银行 证 券 研 究 报 告/行业点评报告 2024 年 5 月 12 日 Table_Main S0740517030004 Email S0740519050002 Email Email Table_Profit 42()11,374,770()7,789,832-Table_Report Table_Finance()EPS PE PEG 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 江苏银行 8.07 1.57 1.71 1.90 2.10 4.89 4.49 4.04 3.65 买入 农业银行 4.37 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.75 5.79 5.87 5.95 5.87 增持 招商银行 35.62 5.75 5.96 6.12 6.20 5.62 5.42 5.28 5.21 增持 宁波银行 24.40 3.75 4.05 4.38 4.73 6.11 5.66 5.24 4.85 增持 苏州银行 7.47 1.25 1.41 1.55 1.70 5.68 5.07 4.61 4.19 买入:2024/05/10 Table_Summary 1 1 2 2 1 2 1Q24 4bp 6bp 3 4 3 -2-1ZEVyRnQoNpOpRpMrMtMpOaQ8Q7NsQnNtRmQkPqQqNjMmNpQaQpPwONZqNsQxNmMnQ-3-.-4-1.-4-2“”“”.-4-3-4-5-1.-6-2.-6-3.-6-.-8-.-9-1.-5-2%.-5-3.-6-4%.-7-5.-8-6.-9-4-2024 5 12 2024 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 66%33%10%2017 3 23 Q4 SIUJIQaGTxblBlYxGbaTpJKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MPDSXw7aOPwilyfSxuMAb+c-5-1 2%Wind 季度中长期贷款房地产业中长期贷款基础设施普惠小微贷款中长期高技术制造业中长期贷款工业绿色贷款绿色贷款:基础设施绿色升级绿色贷款:清洁能源绿色贷款:节能环保2021-09 0.2 27.4 39.7 24.1 27.9 25.7 22.82021-12-0.5 15.3 27.3 32.8 22.6 33.0 28.3 31.7 46.72022-03-1.5 13.2 24.6 31.9 20.7 38.6 31.3 39.3 58.02022-06-1.4 12.5 23.8 21.2 40.4 32.2 40.8 62.82022-09 1.1 12.5 24.6 23.3 41.4 34.0 40.9 63.22022-12 4.0 13.0 23.8 26.5 38.5 32.8 34.9 59.12023-03 6.4 15.2 26.0 42.5 31.7 38.3 34.2 32.12023-06 7.1 15.8 26.1 41.5 32.4 38.4 34.3 35.0 49.22023-09 6.2 15.1 24.1 38.2 30.9 36.8 32.8 36.2 42.32023-12 4.3 15.0 23.5 34.0 28.0 36.5 33.2 38.5 36.52024-03 5.0 13.4 20.3 27.3 23.6 35.1 31.4 39.4 36.4-6-1 2023 12 4.27%3.69%3.73%2023 12 8bp 28BP 2BP 26bp 45bp 22BP 4Q23 2 1Q24|42:1Q24 4bp 1Q24 6bp 3 4 4|42:4 3 -7-4%wind 3.003.504.004.505.005.506.006.502018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-03中国:金融机构人民币贷款加权平均利率中国:金融机构人民币贷款加权平均利率:一般贷款中国:金融机构人民币贷款加权平均利率:个人住房贷款中国:金融机构人民币贷款加权平均利率:企业贷款-8-5 4Q23 全国银行存款结构境内存款:个人存款境内存款:个人存款:活期储蓄存款境内存款:个人存款:定期储蓄存款境内存款:个人存款:结构性存款境内存款:单位存款境内存款:单位存款:活期存款境内存款:单位存款:定期存款境内存款:单位存款:保证金存款境内存款:单位存款:结构性存款境内存款:国库定期存款境内存款:非存款类金融机构存款境内存款:非存款类金融机构存款2017-12 38.4%15.6%17.2%1.8%49.1%22.2%10.2%2.9%2.8%0.8%10.0%0.5%2018-12 39.3%15.8%16.3%2.7%47.1%20.5%9.3%2.8%3.3%0.7%10.3%0.5%2019-12 40.7%16.1%16.8%2.4%45.4%19.1%8.7%2.7%3.1%0.4%10.1%0.5%2020-12 42.6%16.3%19.3%1.4%44.2%17.8%8.5%2.6%1.9%0.2%9.7%0.5%2022-12 45.4%15.8%23.0%0.7%40.4%14.4%8.5%2.9%1.3%0.3%10.2%0.5%2023-01 46.5%15.8%23.3%0.7%39.1%13.5%8.5%2.8%1.4%0.3%10.4%0.5%2023-02 46.2%15.0%23.8%0.7%39.6%13.4%8.8%2.8%1.4%0.4%10.0%0.6%2023-03 46.0%14.9%23.7%0.7%39.9%13.7%8.8%2.7%1.3%0.4%9.9%0.5%2023-04 45.8%14.3%24.1%0.6%40.0%13.4%9.0%2.7%1.3%0.4%10.1%0.5%2023-05 45.8%14.2%24.4%0.6%39.9%13.2%9.1%2.7%1.3%0.4%10.1%0.5%2023-06 46.1%14.5%24.4%0.6%40.1%13.3%9.3%2.6%1.2%0.4%9.9%0.5%2023-07 46.1%14.3%24.8%0.6%39.8%12.9%9.5%2.6%1.3%0.5%10.1%0.5%2023-08 46.3%14.2%25.1%0.6%40.0%12.8%9.7%2.7%1.3%0.4%9.7%0.5%2023-09 46.7%14.4%25.1%0.6%39.8%12.6%9.8%2.7%1.2%0.4%9.5%0.5%2023-10 46.7%14.2%25.5%0.6%39.7%12.5%10.0%2.7%1.2%0.4%9.6%0.5%2023-11 46.6%14.1%25.5%0.5%39.3%12.3%10.0%2.7%1.1%0.4%10.2%0.5%2023-12 47.2%14.5%25.7%0.5%38.9%12.3%10.2%2.7%1.0%0.4%10.0%0.5%2024-01 47.3%14.5%25.8%0.5%38.9%12.3%10.3%2.6%1.1%0.4%10.0%0.5%2024-02 48.1%14.4%26.5%0.5%37.7%11.6%10.2%2.5%1.0%0.4%10.3%0.5%2024-03 48.1%14.3%26.4%0.5%38.0%11.9%10.2%2.5%1.0%0.4%10.1%0.5%-9-6 -10-612 15%612 5%15%612-10%+5%612 10%612 10%612-10%+10%612 10%612 A 300 500 -11-