20191112_艾瑞咨询_2019年中国物流行业投资赛道梳理报告-简版（27页）.pdf
2019 22019.11 iResearch I B2C B2C B C B 6 24 SMS31234 542019.11 iResearch I 2019.11 iResearch I 2018 283.1 6.4%2018 13.3 6.9 52%4.6 34%2013-2018 6.7%5.8%7.9%6.4%9.5%6.1%197.8213.5219.2229.7252.82017 2015 2016 2014 2018 2013%2013-2018 1.3 1.31.5 1.41.61.83.6 3.73.83.73.94.65.45.65.5 6.06.66.912.12016 201510.22018 2017 201410.611.110.89.2%2.9%9.3%2.8%9.8%6.9%13.32013%283.152019.11 iResearch I 2019.11 iResearch I GDP 2013 18%2019 14.6%7.5%-8%2025 12%2019 State of Logistics Report by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals;2013-2019 GDP 2013-2018 GDP-2.0%5.1%6.3%2.1%7.4%18.0%16.6%9.5%5.1%2018 20141.9%8.0%2.0%2.2%5.0%8.1%5.7%2.3%5.8%8.2%1.9%2013 201516.0%7.7%2019H114.9%4.7%14.6%201714.8%8.8%14.6%2016 2013 2014 2015 2017 2016 20187.9%8.0%14.6%14.9%7.5%18.0%7.5%8.0%7.9%16.6%16.0%14.8%62019.11 iResearch I 2019.11 iResearch I75.1%74.7%75.4%76.2%76.7%76.8%13.7%14.6%15.0%15.6%16.3%17.1%9.7%9.3%8.2%8.1%9.0%9.8%41.041.7 41.843.948.051.52013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 76.8%65%U.S.Department of Transportation,Bureau of Transportation Statistics;2013-2018 2013-2017 63.9%64.0%64.5%65.3%64.6%16.6%16.8%16.9%16.8%17.1%10.8%10.7%10.2%9.6%9.8%4.2%4.2%4.3%4.2%4.3%4.5%4.2%4.2%4.1%4.2%17.1 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.82013 2014 2015 2016 20177 1 2345 82019.11 iResearch I MRO 3PL/ETC：1.2.3.RDC/+DC 92019.11 iResearch I 2019 仓 储 供 应链 服务 商发货方收货方跨境/国际供应链 冷链物流园区即时 快递 零担快运 整车运输 车 货 匹 配平台物流科技同城货运车 后 市 场服务及其他延伸服务10 12 345 112019.11 iResearch I 12 4 8 GDP 12 123 45 132019.11 iResearch I优势 劣势 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 50 50-500 500-1,000 1,000-3,000 3,000 0-5%5-10%10-20%20%18-23 CAGR 2018 142019.11 iResearch I优势 劣势(1/6)(1)5%90%10-15%3 1 9,000 5-7%2B C 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 15-20%18-23 CAGR 2018 152019.11 iResearch I(2/6)(2)6,000 15-20%2C 2B 25-30%2,500 20-25%2018 27.2 20%1 2 3 4 5 6 1 18-23 CAGR 2018 优势 劣势16 1234 5 172019.11 iResearch I 0-30KG 30-500KG 500KG-3T 1 3T 182019.11 iResearch I CR10 40%CR10 3.6%CR10 SJ Consulting;5.1 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.82020e 2017 2021e 2018 2016 2019e+5%1.31.72.12.5 2.8 3.12020e 2019e 2021e 2018 2016 2017+14%0.91.31.61.92.1 2.32021e 2018 2017 2016 2020e 2019e+13%3.1%2.5%2.2%3.6%20183.1%2015 2017 2014 20132.8%2016 CR10 12018 2017 1987 1980 201655.0%36.0%64.8%66.9%66.1%CR8 192019.11 iResearch I O2O B 3 RDC/FDC 24 1 O2O C B 202019.11 iResearch ITop1081.2%18.8%Top103.5%96.5%C B B 90%C B C 2018 3%2019e 2020e 2018 201792%92%20163%20142%3%201594%201392%3%93%3%95%3%94%92%3%B-(%)C(%)B(%)vs.7.2%7.7%6.1%7.5%10.3%0.3%-0.7%-7.8%1064990919857777733 7382020e 2019e 2018 20177362016 2015 2014 2013%2018 212019.11 iResearch I 2016 3 100 72 2B 2C 2C 0.430.900.79 0.83 0.770.680.3720161.050.4020141.161.2620151.272018 20171.190.38 0.39 89.2 90.898.8 102.4133.42017 2016 2014 2018 2015 222019.11 iResearch I 2016 CR8 2019 70%EMS 31.3 40.150.763.477.392.8108.6 124.92019e2020e2021e 2023e 2018 2022e 2017 2016+20%2022e 2021e 2018 2016 2019e 2023e 2020e 201712.7 12.4 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.0 X=78.5%64.5%68.0%70.8%14.3%2019H17.3%13.8%5.3%10.8%15.6%20187.6%6.9%66.6%16.8%14.7%13.2%20177.6%6.8%9.4%12.6%11.8%72.3%8.2%201511.5%14.3%10.4%10.1%14.4%9.5%15.5%9.7%12.4%13.7%16.5%201410.8%11.2%10.3%10.3%19.3%13.0%201611.7%13.3%2014-2019H1 CR6 0.880.740.600.500.401.0520171.382023e 2021e2022e 2020e1.212019e 2018+18%2016232019.11 iResearch IB2C B2C B2C/TP+70%/=WMS/OMS 12 242019.11 iResearch IB2C B2C B2C 2.73.85.57.39.512.315.318.42021e 2020e 2018 2017 2016 2019e 2022e 2023e+27%B2C 8.07.59.210.09.59.08.5 8.52022e 2020e 2019e 2023e 2021e 2018 2017 2016B2C X21.928.750.473.090.2111.0130.2156.12021e 2018 2017 2016 2023e 2019e 2022e 2020e+25%B2C 12.5 12.813.514.014.815.816.6 17.32020e 2021e 2018 2022e 2019e 2023e 2017 2016+3.8%=25 Keep Learning 400-026-2099 26
