20191115_艾瑞咨询_2019年中国商业航天发展研究报告（60页）.pdf
2019 2 2019.11 iResearch I 1 2 3 SMS COTS SoC 3 1 2 3 4 54 iResearch I iResearch I/5 2019.11 iResearch I(1)2014 2014 9 2014 6 iResearch I iResearch I(2)/Oneweb Wafer LLC 15 7 iResearch I iResearch I(3)2015 2015 24 2018 90 244251902015 2016 2017 20182015-2018 B KuiperBlueJet ViaSatBlueOrigin AWS Ground StationBlackSky 8 2019.11 iResearch I 2018 2774 4.2%2010 2009 2010 2016 2009 45 2018 62 3.5%2017 16%2015 2017 1287 70%10.8%2018 1252 2019 2012-2016 310-320 SIA 135 108 119 146 157 159 160 139 15519545 43 4858 54 59 54 55 46 62930 10131077113511861229 1274 1277 12871265499516529754921101810601134119812522009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182009-2018 9 1 2 3 4 510 2019.11 iResearch I 1.2.3.4.2015 C B&11 2019.11 iResearch I12 2019.11 iResearch I A+2019.07 8 B+2018.11 8 B 2018.08 8 Pre A 2019.10 3 B 2018.07 2.5 A+2019.09 Pre A+2019.02 3 2018.10 30 A 2019.01 Pre A1 2018.09 B 2019.09 9 A+2018.09 2.5 5013 2019.11 iResearch I UCS 2012 2017 16 1.2.3.4.1000kg 500-1000kg 100-500kg 10-100kg 1-10kg 0.1-1kg 0.1kg 57101162562012 20172012&2017 16 14 iResearch I iResearch I 2018 2014 2018 264436 36871438252014 2015 2016 2017 20182014-2018 680280015009200342002014 2015 2016 2017 20182014-2018 15 2019.11 iResearch I 16 2019.11 iResearch I 2014.11 2015.05 2025 2015.10 2015-2025 2016.19 2016.11 2016.12 2016 17 2019.11 iResearch I XX/18 2019.11 iResearch I OS-M OS-M2(LEO)300(200km)6000(200km)300(300km)1900 300km 205(300km)460(400km)350 200km 4000 200km(SSO)200(500km)4000(500km)260(500km)1100 500km 112(500km)300(500km)230(700km)2000(700km)0/1 N/A 1/1 N/A 0/1 N/A N/A N/A 1.10kg-200kg 500kg-1.5t 2.SpaceX 9 11 3.19 2019.11 iResearch I 2013 24%1.2018 18 2.2018 12 2017 200%3.FAA Space Launch Report 5.43 5.33 9.25 9.85 7.14 15.99 1516192218392013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182013-2018 20 2019.11 iResearch I 21 2019.11 iResearch I 2019 06 2002.12 9 6 2014.11 2016.12 2016 2019.06 22 2019.11 iResearch I 1.2.3.4.20/23 2019.11 iResearch I A 2 12.8%12.2%92.8 132.5 143.8 162.2 182.0 42.8%8.6%12.8%12.2%2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e2016-2020 A A%24 2019.11 iResearch I 1993 2013 2013 2016 2016 3000 5000MHz 2018 5G 2020 25 iResearch I iResearch I SES Intelsat C/Ku Ka 5-10 13 L S C X Ku Ka SES 60 15 33 28Intelsat 49 40 39 3Eutelsat 39 10 37 9EchoStar 21 2 13 8Telesat 16 1 6 1 16 5Inmarsat 13 8 1 9Ananti 4 4Viasat 3 3 300 L/Ka 500-1200km Ka/V/QOneweb 600 1200km KuSpaceX 4425 1100-1325km Ku/KaLeoSat 108 1432km KaIridium Next81 780km L/KaO3b 22 8062km Ka/VOrbcomm 64 700-775km VHF/UHF26 2019.11 iResearch I 2018 21 2016 8 012017 3 2018 1 2022 17.4 17.6 18.1 19.4 21.0 1.2%3.1%6.8%8.3%2014 2015 2016 2017 20182014-2018%27 2019.11 iResearch I/28 2019.11 iResearch I(ITU)/2015 2015.05 2025 2015.10 2015-2025 2016.12 2016 2016.12 2016-2020 2017.01 2018.4 50%2019.06 29 2019.11 iResearch I Oneweb 600 67.5 130kg SpaceX 5000/65 4.05 3.9 7.95 30 iResearch I iResearch I 2 0.8 3 SAR 1 6 1 2 Landsat 1-7 SPOT QuickBirdIKONOS 31 2019.11 iResearch I 1 2014.1 2 2014.11 3 2015-2025 2015.10 4 2016.10 5 2016.11 2014 2-3 32 2019.11 iResearch I 33 2019.11 iResearch I ICG CNSS Galileo GLONASS GPS GPS 1958 1994 2016 2020 35 2018 12 27 RNSS 2019 9 23 47 48 1994 2000 2004 2012 14 2009 2018 19 34 2019.11 iResearch I 134317352118255030163473400029.2%22.1%20.4%18.3%15.2%15.2%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e2014-2020%2019 2018 3016 2014 2018 17.56%2013 2020 4000 15.16%35 2019.11 iResearch I PNT 1958 PNT 20 90 2007 BDS 1994 2019 9 39 21 18 1 2 GPS 1973 2019 10 31 1 3 GLONASS 1972 2019 10 24 1 1 12 Galileo 2002 2019 10 30 22 2 5 36 iResearch I iResearch I13101648194780890210692016 2017 20182016-2018 37 2019.11 iResearch I 2006 2013 2020 4000 60%80%2014 2016 2016 2018 9 38 2019.11 iResearch I 21375358512014 2015 2016 2017 20182014-2018 GPS 2016 2017 4 2017 2018 1 39 iResearch I iResearch I6130 292518149641 1 1 1 1 0 1963-2019 1 C-2 S-/3 M-S 10 1960 30 2018 76 2019 2012 Arkyd 2015 Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act 1967 Outer Space Treaty NASA NASA 40 iResearch I iResearch I(105 110)2001 4 Dennis Tito 2000 ISS Dennis Tito 7 ISS Charles Simonyi 2007 2009 ISS B2B2C G2B2C Virgin Galactic Space Adventures VR Virgin Galactic Space Adventures Virgin Galactic 2000 Space Adventures 1998 2019 7 8 Virgin Galactic Space Adventures 41 1 2 3 4 542 2019.11 iResearch I/43 iResearch I iResearch I SoC SoC System on Chip CPU FPGA SoC SPA 44 1 2 3 4 545 iResearch I iResearch I 2019 7 25 2018 9397 2019 7 153 15 SOC MOS web bug 95%90%80%211 985%46 2019.11 iResearch I 2022 350kg 200kmLEO 230kg 700kmSSO 4t 200kmLEO 2t 700kmSSO+RCS+/10-200kg 500-1500kg700km SSO 230kg 700km SSO 2000kg 2018 09 2018 02 2018 03 2018 05 2018 10 200N 2018 11 2018 12/2019 1 25N 2019 1 2019 4 2000N 2019 9 2020 3 2019 7 2022 12 2020 10 Pre A 347 iResearch I iResearch I/17 FMEA/60 3 8 9 Blocck5 2300/48 iResearch I iResearch I 10 07 6 6 8312016-2019 Full Mission Partial Mission Early Loss 1.2.Early Loss 3.3 Partial Mission 24-2022 480 550km 2023 144 550km 2025 144 550km 2025 288 1000km 2025 400-500 1000km 202549 iResearch I iResearch I 2019 4 2022 72 LTE NB-IOT 2015 6 2017 8 72 2018 2 2018 12 7 2019+GPRS 4G NB-IOT 50 2019.11 iResearch I 2016 2017 6000 A Doll 51 iResearch I iResearch I9.5411.0816.1722.0430.5116.1%45.9%36.3%38.4%2014 2015 2016 2017 20182014-2018%80,330.61 95,484.97 153,412.25 186,445.98 204,584.38 2455.213148.143742.6218721.7992926.2612020.9 9956.671849.2614399.667592.9598.632195.57 2714.73859.28 02014 2015 2016 2017 20182014 2018+2000+2018 30.51 2014 2018 26.2%8.0 9.5 15.3 18.6 20.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.9 9.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 20182014-2018 52 1 2 3 4 553 iResearch I iResearch I SpaceLogistics MEV-1 SpaceX 60 500kg 100kg 54 iResearch I iResearch I 2012-20182016 2016 65 2015 53.6%2013 2018 2019 5 SpaceX 60 100%30%23%16%16%16%18%22%20%21%9%10%2%3%4%15%17%51%54%51%49%39%6%6%10%6%10%6%6%4%2%3%15%7%18%6%5%6%6%18%11%5%5%7%10%2%8%7%10%3%4%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182012-2018%/%811072082021263453142012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182012-2018 55 2019.11 iResearch I+OTT/Oneweb Starlink ITU 3GPP PNT 56 2019.11 iResearch I 2022 2022 3t/5 57 2019.11 iResearch I 60 58 Keep Learning 400-026-2099 59
