深度报告-20221230-华创证券-瑞晨环保-301273.SZ-深度研究报告_高效节能离心风机龙头_产品_行业双维度_扩张未来可期_33页_1mb.pdf
2009 1210 2022 12 30 301273 57.3 40.30 2010-1 2022 8 11 2000 2 200 50+150 1%22Q3 2010 200 3 7%20%60%-70%85%2023 57.3 2022-2024 0.85 1.37 1.84 PE 34/21/16 2023 30 PE 57.3 ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()408 495 686 930(%)36.6%21.4%38.6%35.5%()83 85 137 184(%)20.9%3.0%60.7%34.2%()1.54 1.19 1.91 2.56()27 34 21 16()6.6 7.0 5.4 4.2 2022 12 27 010-63214656 S0360518070002()7,164.18()1,698.53()28.87()6.85(%)48.51()7.06 12/44.30/32.02(12)-20%-10%0%10%22/10 22/11 22/11 22/11 22/12 22/122022-10-252022-12-27 300 301273 2009 1210-1 2022-2024 23%/42%/38%2022-2024 41%/44%/44%2 2022-2024 10%/16%/21%50%/55%/55%3 EMC 2022-2024 10%/20%/15%55%/62.5%/63%4 22 22 2023 57.3 2022-2024 0.85 1.37 1.84 PE 34/21/16 2023 30 PE 57.3 301273 2009 1210 3.6.6.6&.7.10.11.11 1.11 2.12 200.13.14.15.17.19.19.21.21.22.23.24 301273 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.7 4 2018&.7 5.7 6 2018&%.8 7.8 8 2018.9 9 2018.9 10%.9 11 2018.9 12.9 13 2018.10 14 2018.10 15.10 16 2021.11 17.11 18.11 19 2018%.11 20.12 21.13 22 2016-2020.13 23 2016-2020.13 24 2020.14 25.14 26.14 27.15 28.16 29.16 30.16 31/.16 32.17 33 2010-2022Q3/.17 301273 2009 1210 5 34.17 35.18 36.20 37.20 38 IRR.20 39.20 40.21 41.21 42.22 43.22 44.23 45.24 46.24 1.26 2.28 301273 2009 1210 6 2010 2015 2019 2021 4 1 2022 10 6.05 2.99 1 2220.75 31%14.76%12-36 2 Wind 301273 2009 1210 7 3 Wind&CAGR 40%2018-2021 1.44 4.08 41.50%2022Q3 3.00 21.23%2018 3111.85 2021 8272.5 38.53%2022Q3 4551.3 4.47%&3 6 4 2018&5 Wind Wind 22 45%-50%20%2022Q3 22-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.502018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000 2021 2020 2019 2021 2020 2019 301273 2009 1210 8 6 2018&%Wind 70%2019-2021 55.60%57.14%53.83%45.62%18.12%IPO 7 2021 2020 2019 3,885.15 18.12%5,483.02 29.54%4,963.67 45.62%6,762.02 31.53%4,573.31 24.64%914.71 8.41%2,448.92 11.42%3,169.53 17.08%1,522.09 13.99%5,098.48 23.78%2,928.05 15.78%2,262.21 20.79%1,161.49 5.42%1,149.63 6.19%377.21 3.47%895.2 4.17%548.89 2.96%170.81 1.57%638 2.98%390.66 2.10%515.69 4.74%554.47 2.59%317.38 1.71%153.32 1.41%21,443.74 100.00%18,560.48 100.00%10,879.71 100.00%2018-2021 26.54%22.68%2022 8.98%0.03pct 6.65%2.51pct 0.80%0.11pct 70 67 37.03%2021 2000 7.16%73 7 66 52.7249.74 49.9846.0941.0521.5718.0722.9420.2915.1901020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 301273 2009 1210 9 8 2018 9 2018 Wind Wind 10%Wind 2019-2021 7965.37 9736.33 1.34 11 2018 12 Wind Wind 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 7.74%7.29%6.27%7.16%6.85%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%05001000150020002500300035002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 01234567892018-12-31 2019-12-31 2020-12-31 2021-12-31 2022Q3 301273.SZ 300950.SZ 300091.SZ 688096.SH0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 00.511.522.533.544.52018-12-31 2019-12-31 2020-12-31 2021-12-31 2022Q3 301273.SZ 300950.SZ 300091.SZ 688096.SH 301273 2009 1210 10 4-6 2018-2022Q3 0.19 0.47 1.14 1.51 1.58 13 2018 14 2018 Wind Wind/15 Wind 90.37%2021 85.48%2021 2200 1600 0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.40-200002000400060008000100002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 301273 2009 1210 11 2021 3.21 80%2021 0.68 16 2021 17 Wind Wind 44%53%2021 62.87%18 19 2018%Wind Wind 1 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,0002018 2019 2020 2021()0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450002018 2019 2020 2021 0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 301273 2009 1210 12 20 2 1 301273 2009 1210 13 2 21 200 2020 739.38 42.8 5.79%22 2016-2020 23 2016-2020 24.70%25.86%929908.03744.92799.72739.3853.27 52.71 40.05 43.57 42.8-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%020040060080010002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2398.44 2621.47 3441.27 3619.76 4169.92 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%0.00500.001000.001500.002000.002500.003000.003500.004000.004500.002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 301273 2009 1210 14 740*0.25=185 24 2020 2009 2014 150-170 25 26 Wind Wind 1 20%1 2 26%5%2%10%6%25%16%1%5%4%0200004000060000800001000001200002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021:050001000015000200002500030000:301273 2009 1210 15 Howden Group Ltd 2019 1/3 40%-50%2021 5.51/80%12%70%27=/0.5/30%20%=5.51*0.5*30%*20%*88%=1455 12%80%301273 2009 1210 16 28 29 30-50 7-10 50%+75-125 40%3-5 30 31/2021 1 2 15%2022 40 2010 200 2 1%2 600 100 12 2 100 200 50%,10%50%-60%,16%60%-70%,31%70%-80%,31%80%,12%60%77%60%40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%水泥 电力 铝&碳 钢铁,46.1,23%,112.74,55%,12.66,6%,12.14,6%,19.7,10%301273 2009 1210 17 32 33 2010-2022Q3/34 GB19761-2009 GB28381-2012 GB 32284-2015 2022(2021-2023)2022 8 2022 11 2030 2000,66.73%,15.72%,13.17%,4.37%301273 2009 1210 18 35 2018 2020 2020 GBT 33652 GB/T 26281 GB/T 27977 80%2%10%2030 301273 2009 1210 19(2006-2020);:)(2020)(2021-2023)2010 7%1 80%1-2 2021“”301273 2009 1210 20 36 37 IRR 1 7200 2 20%110KWh/h 3 7%4 15 5 2%6 7 1KWh 840 8 2%IRR 20%38 IRR 60%-70%6 12 39 2021 2020 2019 17.73 700 17.57 386 16.19 81 67.42 135 69.75 84 73.07 75 129.45 103 128.39 81 127.92 59 66.69 215 41.82 551 37.15 938 301273 2009 1210 21 2,200 1,600 42 81 73 7 66 40 9 2 3 3 13 3 4 30%41 2021 12,421.46 30.47%2,685.84 6.59%2,468.86 6.06%2,219.84 5.45%1,793.48 4.40%301273 2009 1210 22 42 85%20-30 100 C919 1%0.1%-0.3%43 2021/01 700 NOX NOX 2021/07 250-301273 2009 1210 23 44 1 2022-2024 23%/42%/38%2022-2024 41%/44%/44%2，我们认 为未 来多 与风 机配 套销售，2022-2024 10%/16%/21%50%/55%/55%3 EMC 2022-2024 10%/20%/15%55%/62.5%/63%4 22 22 301273 2009 1210 24 45 2023 57.3 2022-2024 0.85 1.37 1.84 PE 34/21/16 2023 30 PE 57.3 46 2022/12/26)EPS PE X PEG 2023E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 11.20 0.50 0.59 0.73 0.93 26.22 19.11 15.31 12.06 0.62 30.10 1.57 1.47 1.90 2.37 29.53 20.51 15.84 12.68 0.54 5.68 0.13 0.16 0.20 0.26 66.26 34.69 27.78 22.21 1.12 19.64 40.11 1.54 1.19 1.91 2.56 25 34 21 16 2.89 Wind EPS PE Wind 1 2 2019-2021 55.60%57.14%53.83%业务 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E收入（万元）14,339 23,041 34,846 42,978 60,942 84,089y o y（%）61%51%23%42%38%收入占比（%）73%77%85%87%89%90%毛利（万元）6,788 10,686 15,388 17,621 26,815 36,999毛利率（%）47.3%46.4%44.2%41.0%44.0%44.0%收入 1,790 1,764 1,994 2,198 2,539 3,066yoy-1%13%10%16%21%收入占比 9%6%5%4%4%3%毛利 955 1,104 1,080 1,099 1,397 1,686毛利率 53.4%62.6%54.2%50.0%55.0%55.0%收入 3,411 4,377 3,428 3,771 4,525 5,204yoy 28%-22%10%20%15%收入占比 17%15%8%8%7%6%毛利 1,987 2,792 2,155 2,074 2,828 3,279毛利率 58.3%63.8%62.9%55.0%62.5%63.0%收入 19,675 29,838 40,766 49,495 68,609 92,992yoy 52%37%21%39%36%毛利 9,786 14,914 18,789 20,986 31,278 42,230毛利率 49.7%50.0%46.1%42.4%45.6%45.4%风机水泵合同能源管理合计 301273 2009 1210 25 3 2019-2021 7,965.37 9,736.33 13,397.65 4 2022 12 29 301273 2009 1210 26 1 81.54%83.7%30.7%14.08%14.40%34.87%13.42%27.49%20%28.4%34.9%81.2%81.5%1#2#15%25%83.17%83.67%80%83.44%15%20.4%82.7%85.1%88.0%87.21%85.7%20.2%16.7%23.5%35.3%19.7%27.8%23.0%18.0%15.88%45.6%19.7%20.4%21.7%21.3%2#27.7%22.9%25.7%3200t/d 80%301273 2009 1210 27 21.3%28.7%15.68%44.68%21.0%12.0%80.7%81.6%25.5%20.0%15.2%16.1%16.0%12.1%13.5%9.5%2#J1P01 16.20%2#J1J03 24.93%2#J1P01 40.52%82%31.6%70%52.7%87 16%78 33.1%100 25.4%102 9 15 126 26.18%12 27 83-84%31%()A547 KSB 88%-90%15.2%83 28.1%18 24%40 32.7%3 9 23.9%301273 2009 1210 28 14 22 30.1%2 2,500 10,000 301273 2009 1210 29 301273 2009 1210 30 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 42 126 195 237 408 495 686 930 6 39 17 28 220 285 373 508 134 176 243 317 3 4 5 7 9 18 24 26 32 38 53 72 151 158 231 333 29 36 50 67 36 22 39 66 29 35 49 67 143 155 223 314 2 1 2 2 485 672 933 1,255-5-5-5-5 14 17 24 32-3-3-3-3 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 88 92 94 96 0 0 0 0 9 10 11 12 6 6 6 6 64 58 52 47 91 94 153 206 21 18 18 18 3 3 3 3 201 200 204 210 0 0 0 0 686 872 1,137 1,465 94 97 156 209 83 119 154 190 11 12 19 25 0 0 0 0 83 85 137 184 46 71 96 125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 83 85 137 184 105 127 176 239 NOPLAT 85 86 138 185 1 1 1 1 EPS()1.54 1.19 1.91 2.56 0 0 0 0 77 94 130 174 312 412 557 729 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36.6%21.4%38.6%35.5%41 41 41 41 EBIT 18.5%1.8%60.2%34.0%41 41 41 41 20.9%3.0%60.7%34.2%353 453 598 770 333 419 539 695 46.1%42.4%45.6%45.4%0 0 0 0 20.3%17.2%20.0%19.8%333 419 539 695 ROE 24.8%20.3%25.4%26.4%686 872 1,137 1,465 ROIC 19.8%16.0%20.1%21.3%51.4%51.9%52.6%52.5%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 37.4%38.1%36.2%33.2%18 65 54 38 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 103 108 160 207 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3-37-6-74-102-42-82-47-86 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 3 25 25 28 102 113 110 108-10 20-10-10 70 74 81 78-67-19-19-19 218 195 188 200-76-20-19-19()-4 0 0 0 1.54 1.19 1.91 2.56 13 1 0 0 0.25 0.91 0.75 0.53 45 38 34 23 4.65 5.85 7.52 9.70 35 35 35 35-3-19-29-39 P/E 27 34 21 16 0 0 0 0 P/B 7 7 5 4 13 22 28 27 EV/EBITDA 34 33 22 17 301273 2009 1210 31 2017 2019 2022 2022 301273 2009 1210 32 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572554 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 301273 2009 1210 33(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
