深度报告-20230104-华创证券-基础化工行业深度研究报告_地产复苏_化工看好纯碱_PVC和钛白粉_22页_1mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 01 04 PVC PVC PVC 37%50%+30%PVC PVC 91.2%8.7%+PVC 69.1%50.2%7.5%PVC 10 20%2021-2024 PVC 5.8%PVC PVC 74.2%77.9%16.5%2009 S0360522050001 S0360522100004%()438 0.06()46,265.53 5.29()35,839.42 5.40%1M 6M 12M-4.2%-18.0%-21.7%-4.6%-4.3%-0.4%20221224-1231 2023-01-02 20221226-20230102 2023-01-02 20221219-20221225 2022-12-25-30%-20%-10%0%22/01 22/03 22/05 22/08 22/10 22/122022-01-042022-12-30 300 2009 1210.4.6+.6 1 000683.SZ.9 2 600328.SH.10 PVC+.10 1 000422.SZ.13 2 600075.SH.14 3 002092.SZ.14+.15 1 002601.SZ.18.18.19 2009 1210 3 1.4 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.6 6-.7 7%.7 8.8 9.8 10 2022.8 11/.8 12.9 13.9 14/.9 15/.9 16 PVC.11 17 PVC.11 18 PVC.11 19 PVC.12 20 PVC.12 21 PVC%.12 22 PVC.12 23 PVC/.13 24.15 25.16 26.16 27%.16 28.16 29.17 30.17 31.17 32.17 2009 1210 4 22 7 11 1 2022.11.23 6 16 2022.11.8 2500 2022.11.28 REITs IPO 2022.12.14 2022-2035 2022.12.19 PVC 63.4%PVC 91.2%PVC 69.1%50.2%74.2%77.9%21-24 9.1%2009 1210 5 6.1%PVC 5.8%147 615 314 PVC 84 89 162 40 131 2 Wind 3 2021/2021-2024 37%7.2%2789 63.4%28.4 8.7%91.2%6.1%PVC 50%9.2%5934 7.5%31.0 50.2%69.1%5.8%25%-30%39.8%15083 16.5%26.1 77.9%74.2%9.1%Wind 2022.12.29 2022 2018.1.1-2022.12.29 4 PB/500 1000 2000 2.3 281.41 147 0.52 5.53 1.5 167.42 314 1.88 10.42 PVC 2.8 130.37 84 0.64 5.58 0.9 93.22 89 0.95 5.91 0.8 196.88 162 0.74 10.75 1.5 167.42 40 0.24 2.65 2.2 454.13 131 0.29 17.39 Wind 2022.12.29-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22年前11个月:PVC:2009 1210 6+21 47%5 50%70%2009 1210 7 6-2020 22 2022 11-19%7 7%Wind 20 23 17.48/16.16/148-30-20-1001020304050-10-50510152015-02 2016-02 2017-02 2018-02 2019-02 2020-02 2021-02 2022-02:2009 1210 8 4.13/7.37/23H2 8 9 2022 22 11 186.5+165%200 90%25 10 2022 11/Bloomberg Wind 012345678121314151617182021/3 2021/6 2021/9 2021/12 2022/3 2022/6 2022/9 2022/12 05101520253035402021/7 2021/10 2022/1 2022/4 2022/7 2022/10 05101520252019/1 2019/7 2020/1 2020/7 2021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7 05001000150020002500300035004000 2009 1210 9 12 13 2021 2700 22Q3 14/15/Wind 1 000683.SZ 1 2021 180/147/110/84/50%154/117/2 130 22 23 2025 320 50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12022 2021 20200204060801001201401601802001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12022 2021 2020 2019050010001500200025003000350040002019/12019/42019/72019/102020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10(Q:5500):05001000150020002500 2009 1210 10 90%3 60%860/500 40 23 280 40 2025 12 2 600328.SH 1 2021 9 390 40 PVC 8 36 PVC 2 16 6.5 36.4%2 90 PVC PVC 3 PVC PVC+PVC PVC PVC 50%2009 1210 11 16 PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC 2017 PVC PVC 5 PVC 1.4%PVC 2657 2023 240 2021 10.14+11.2%PVC 2022 2022 11-19%7 PVC 17 PVC 18 PVC Wind Wind-60.0-40.0-20.00.020.040.060.080.02006-012006-112007-092008-072009-052010-032011-012011-112012-092013-072014-052015-032016-012016-112017-092018-072019-052020-032021-012021-112022-09:%PVC:%01000200030004000500002000400060008000100001200014000160002016-06 2018-06 2020-06 2022-06价差：电石法PVC-1.45*电 石（元/吨，右轴）电石法PVC 价格（元/吨）2009 1210 12 19 PVC 20 PVC PVC PVC 2016 2022 PVC Q2 80%PVC 2022 10 2 PVC 70%10 20%PVC 21 PVC%22 PVC PVC PVC 3500 2017 2022 5217 3660 PVC BDO PBAT 2-3 PBAT 475 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%200021002200230024002500260027002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022PVC-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%1001201401601802002202019/12019/42019/72019/102020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10PVC 30405060708090100PVC 010203040506070020406080100120140160180PVC 2009 1210 13 325+3780/1 PVC 1.4-1.45 PVC 1 PVC 5300-5500 PVC 6000/PVC PVC PVC PVC 23 PVC/Wind PVC 1 000422.SZ 1 84 PVC 105 63 156 126 1.6 10 6 2017 2018 4 2 2020 2-3 1.3 30 150/3 BDO 2 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000电石法PVC乙烯法PVC电石法-外 购电石 成本乙烯法-外 购甲醇 成本乙烯法-外 购乙烯 成本乙烯法-外 购煤成 本电石法-自 备电石 成本 2009 1210 14 4 2 600075.SH 1 PVC 2020 3 5 PVC 89 69 10 10 65 134 405 2 2022 a 100%24 PVC+18 b 30 25+22.5 VCM PVC 2024 c(49%)10 PBAT 45 PVC 32 64 3 PVC 3 002092.SZ 1 PVC 205 162 146 116 280 73 2 2020 9 2022 12 10-20 2009 1210 15 PVC 3 130 LNG 100 PVC 75+PVC+58%23.8%16.8%9.3%8.1%24+83%17%2009 43.6%2016 9.5 15.7 7.4%2017 2021 17.9 2017-2021 3.3%8-12 2009 2017 2009 1210 16 9 11 74%25 26 Wind Wind 27%28 2022 11 127.9 39.8%2017 28.9%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002006-012006-112007-092008-072009-052010-032011-012011-112012-092013-072014-052015-032016-012016-112017-092018-072019-052020-032021-012021-112022-09:():(/)-40.0-20.00.020.040.060.080.02006-012006-112007-092008-072009-052010-032011-012011-112012-092013-072014-052015-032016-012016-112017-092018-072019-052020-032021-012021-112022-09:%:%505560657075808590951001 月 2月 3 月 4月 5 月 6月 7月 8月 9 月 10 月 11月 12月2022 2021 2020 2019 20180510152025302022 2021 2020 2019 2009 1210 17 29 30 7.0 5 6.2%2019 11 2020 1 1 2019 3 2023 140 2015 590 2025 890 4.2%31 32 1 2 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%024681012141618 0500100015002000250030003500-2500-2000-1500-1000-50005001000150020002500-/0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%01002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 18+1 002601.SZ 1 131 65 66 2 3 91.2%8.7%+PVC 69.1%50.2%7.5%PVC 10 20%2021-2024 PVC 5.8%PVC 2009 1210 19 PVC 74.2%77.9%16.5%2009 1 2 3 4 2009 1210 20 4 6 2022 2019 2021 2 2022 2 2022 2022 2022 2022 2009 1210 21 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 2009 1210 22(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
