深度报告-20230117-东海证券-丽珠集团-000513.SZ-公司深度报告_创新发展_多元前进_35页_1mb.pdf
HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN Table_Price 34.86 Table_Reportdate 2023 01 17 Table_invest Table_NewTitle 000513 Table_Authors S0630522040001 S0630522080001 Table_cominfo()93,555 A/B()60,586(%)38.43()2.43()11.34 12/35.44/32.55 Table_QuotePic Table_Report 2023 000513-table_main 10 13%17%2021 120.6 17.8 50 PPI 5 11%3%10 5 NDA 10 86 21 OTC V-01 2022 9 Omicron V-01 2017 5.76 2021 15.23 6.75%12.63%IL-6R IL-17A/F-33%-26%-20%-14%-8%-1%5%11%22-01 22-04 22-07 22-10 300 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/35 2022-2024 18.20 21.43 24.25 EPS 1.95 2.29 2.59 PE 17.9/15.2/13.4 Table_profits 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()9385 10520 12,064 12,814 15,180 17,262(%)5.9%12.1%14.7%6.2%18.5%13.7%()1303 1715 1,776 1,820 2,143 2,425(%)20.4%31.6%3.5%2.5%17.7%13.2%(%)63.9 64.9 64.7 63.6 63.4 62.8()1.39 1.82 1.89 1.95 2.29 2.59 ROE(%)11.9 15.6 13.6 13.3 14.6 15.4 PE()25.0 19.2 18.4 17.9 15.2 13.4 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 3/35 1.6 1.1.6 1.2.9 2.11 2.1.11 2.2.17 2.3.21 3.24 3.1.24 3.2.27 3.3.V-01.27 4.30 4.1.30 4.2.32 5.33 6.33 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 4/35 1.6 2.6 3.7 4 ROE.7 5.7 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.10 10 PPI.12 11 PPI.12 12 PPI.12 13 PPI/.16 14 PPI.16 15/.16 16.16 17 PPI/.17 18 PPI.17 19/.17 20.17 21-HPG.18 22.19 23.19 24 GnRH.20 25.21 26.21 27.21 28.22 29.22 30.23 31 NDA.25 32 V-01.28 33.30 34.32 35.33 1.9 2 2022.9 3.10 4.11 5.11 6 PPI.12 7.13 8.13 9.13 10 PPI.13 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 5/35 11 PPI.14 12 PPI.14 13 PPI.14 14.15 15.17 16.18 17.20 18.22 19.22 20.23 21.24 22.25 23.26 24.27 25.27 26.28 27.29 28.30 29.31 30.32.34 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 6/35 1.1985 A+H 600380.SH 30 8000 2021 120.6 17.8 1 2022 1.1.2012 39.44 2021 120.64 13%2012 3.96 2021 13.66 17%10 2 Wind HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7/35 3 Wind ROE 2021 13.49%ROE 12.51%60%4 ROE Wind 5 Wind HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 8/35 30%6%2021 10%45%6 Wind 2017 85-100 30-40%2017 1 7 Wind HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 9/35 8 Wind 1.2.2020 10 2018 2019 2028 2020 2029 10 80 9 2022 10 2022 2000 31.31/A 1034 2021 2022-2024 15%2021 2 2022 2021 2022 15%2021 2023 15%2021 2024 15%15%1 X 15%X 15%0 15%X 20%25%20%X 35%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 10/35 3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 9.47 10.89 12.52 14.40 16.56 19.05 21.90 25.19 28.97 33.31 38.31 11.92 14.32 16.27 19.52 22.45 25.82 29.69 2019 2019-2021 80%Wind 2017-2021 50 9 Wind 11.068.6310.7511.6812.15024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021年度累计分红总额（亿元）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 11/35 2.2.1.1.2 PPI H2 2021 51.5%30%P-CAB P-CAB PPI P-CAB 4/5 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 9.8 12.5 17.6 24.7 37.2 17.8/26.4%29.4%35.6%45.8%51.5%48.5%/11.5%14.1%18.7%23.5%30.8%28.2%PPI PPI PPI HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 12/35 60%6 PPI 10 PPI 11 PPI 12 PPI HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 13/35 1.1 5mg/2007 2017 2017 10-15/7 2007 5-10mg 4 2017 10mg 4 10mg/2017 258/10mg 20mg 10mg 3 2019 156/10mg 2021 71/10mg 8/10mg 2017 258 2019 156 2021 71 PPI PPI 5mg/10mg 10mg 3-4 PPI PPI CYP450 CYP2C19 CYP2C19 9/20mg 10mg 40mg 30mg 15mg 30mg 40mg 20mg 40mg 20mg 10mg 20mg 20mg 40mg 20mg 40mg 5mg 10mg 5mg 10mg 2020 10 PPI h)0.5-1 1.3-1.7 1 1-2h 1-1.5 3-4h HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 14/35 11 PPI CYP2C19 CYP3A4 CYP2C19 CYP2C19 CYP2C19 CYP3A4 CYP3A4 CYP2C19 CYP3A4 CYP3A4 CYP3A4 2020 PPI PPI 1-24 PPI PPI 4-8 PPI 3 4 71 284 13 PPI 40mg 13.83 1-2 69-138 5 30mg 39.98 2 7 400 5 40mg 18 1-2 7 90-180 5 20mg 97.78 1 489 5 40mg 59.73 1 7 299 5 10mg 71 4 284 3 PPI CYP2C19 PPI CYP2C19 12 PPI/20mg 1.1 30mg 2.8 40mg 2.5 20mg 6.4 20mg 40mg 7.9 15.8 5mg 10mg 12 24 2020 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 15/35 CYP2C19 PPI 2022 2/CYP450 CYP2C19 CYP2C19 PPI 50%PPI H2 CDE 2.4 CDE CDE PPI 2022 PPI 2022H1 2022 PPI 11%PPI 25%14 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 16/35 2022 71 3 4 300 13 PPI/14 PPI 15/16 PPI 2018-2021 12.7%PPI 2018-2021 19%2-3%PPI 2021 24%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 17/35 17 PPI/18 PPI 19/20 2.2.2021 34.0%20.3%10 15 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 5.5 7.61 9.26 11.76 13.44 16.13 18.23 19.12 24.54 13.44/36.30%38.06%36.97%35.39%33.97%36.58%/15.75%18.20%19.42%18.17%20.34%21.32%(gonadotropin-releasing hormone GnRH)-(hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadalaxis,HPG)GnRH GnRH GnRH 10 GnRH LH FSH HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 18/35 21-HPG GnRH GnRH GnRH GnRH GnRH GnRH GnRH 3 2003 3 1.88mg,3.75mg 11.25mg 2 3 3.75mg 3.75mg 1650 1300 2021 35%35%30%16 1.88mg 1000 3.75mg 1650 11.25mg 4600 3.75mg 1300 3.75mg 1300 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 19/35 22 23 4 3.75mg 3-6/10%4 1.88mg 3.75mg GnRH 3-6 4 3.75mg 12 11.25mg 2015 2020 60%89%2020 11.5 5.1 AR GnRh 60%GLOBOCAN 2020 41.63 9.1%17.9%12.2%10.5%HR+70%4 30-180 g/kg GnRH 1/5000-1/10000 5-10 GnRH 02468101214160%20%40%60%80%100%武田 丽珠 博恩特 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 20/35 GnRH GnRH GnRH 24 GnRH 2018 16.0%2023 18.2%35 2021 2016 451 2020 536 2021 2022 16 17 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 21/35 25 26 2014-2019 23 44 13.85%2023 75 2020-2023 14.47%27 GnRh GnRh 2021 2021 2.3.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 22/35 1 1600 16.6%2016 140.2 2021 295.1 16%28 29 2021 4.12 18 19 sunovion Sumitomo CDE FGA AD SGA AD 5-HT 5-HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 23/35 20 D2 D2 5-1A 5-HT1A 5-2A 5-HT2A 2002 11 FDA 2006 2015 60 2015 2013 1 FDA 2021 10 2022 9 FDA 2 2023 2.2 30 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 24/35 2019 3.3.1.2022 3 2025 21 2019 10 2021 1 2021 12 25%2022 3 2022 6 2022 9 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 25/35 2022 11 2021 11 5 31 NDA 1 2 86 21 22 1 2 3 4 5 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 26/35 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 23 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 参芪扶正 注射液 15.73 10.02 8.17 6.06 抗病毒颗 粒 3.00 3.33 3.04 4.62 中药收入 亿元）20.45 15.32 12.81 12.07 10.71 4.91 yoy-25.09%-16.38%-5.78%-11.27%-19.60%中药收入/总营 业收入 23.97%17.29%13.65%11.47%8.88%7.79%2017 5 OTC 2020 2022 3-2022 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 27/35 8 SXSHL 1.1 TGDX 3.2.(2019 2022 17.29+18.3%37.7%27.4%50%GMP 2022 6 30 17 49 FDA 9 CEP 14 2 50%24 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 21.03 23.54 23.5 24.4 29.09 17.29 23.6%24.0%31.0%32.2%29.6%37.7%/24.7%26.6%25.0%23.2%24.1%27.4%3.3.V-01 V-01 2022 9 V-01 2020 7 2022 9 2 25 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 28/35 32 V-01 V-01 Pan RBD Fc V-01 II 2021 7 V-01 2021 10 V-01 III 2 36 18 10722 1:1 V-01 V-01 V-01 6.73%12.80%P=0.0012 V-01 61.35%V-01 WHO Omicron 60 Omicron V-01 Omicron COVID-19 V-01 P3 GMP V-01 2-8 35 15/13 2021 2022 12 60 9 3+1 CHO 26 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 29/35 Alpha+Beta 2022 11 28 34 4345.1 13 463.1 12 7283 92.54%90.28%8 1117.6 4722.7 60 2 3940 2 2816.5 90.68%86.42%1 8151.1 11 28 4.62 60 1.82 6.44+6.44 60%V-01 10%3 5 8 1.16 1.93 3.09 6.44 27 6.44 3 5 8 40%2.58 5%0.13 0.39 0.64 1.03 10%0.26 0.77 1.29 2.06 15%0.39 1.16 1.93 3.09 60%3.86 5%0.19 0.58 0.97 1.55 10%0.39 1.16 1.93 3.09 15%0.58 1.74 2.90 4.64 80%5.15 5%0.26 0.77 1.29 2.06 10%0.52 1.55 2.58 4.12 15%0.77 2.32 3.86 6.18 V-01 Beta Delta Omicron HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 30/35 V-01 4.2017 5.76 2021 15.23 6.75%12.63%75%2017 586 2021 936 8.42%10.91%3 8 28 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021H1 586 721 729 911 936 8.42%9.40%8.08%10.89%10.91%5.76 6.87 8.28 9.90 15.23 6.39 19.42%20.44%19.55%53.93%17.22%85.31 88.61 93.85 105.20 120.64 63.03 6.75%7.76%8.82%9.41%12.63%10.14%5.49 7.33 8.84 11.46 5.55 79.88%88.56%89.33%75.23%86.85%4.1.1-300 m 6 33 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 31/35 IQVIA 2017-2019 72.26 78.56 4.27%2015-2019 22.3 47.4 20.8%2000 9 2013 1 2015 3 2017 7 1 1 1 3 BE 29 1 1 2 1 3 1 BE 4 3 BE 5 3 6 1 7 1 8 1 1998 4 2003 40 125 3 4 SRLs GH 2018 BE 2018 7911/30mg 5800/20mg HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 32/35 34 4.2.CAR-T 2 GE 2 200L 1 500L 1 2000L ABEC 1 500L 1 1500L 2021 V-01 4 30 1 2 3 IL-6R)4 PD-1 II 5 IL-17A/F II 6 I 7-2b Fc I 2013 2019 2021 7000 2021 11 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 33/35 35 5.2022-2024 18.20 21.43 24.25 EPS 1.95 2.29 2.59 PE 17.9/15.2/13.4 6.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 34/35 Table_FinchinaDetail Wind HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 35/35 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%1928 87 D 15F Http:/Http:/8621 20333619 8610 59707105 8621 50585608 8610 59707100 200215 100089
