深度报告-20230116-国海证券-申联生物-688098.SH-公司报告_市场化转型显成效_加速拓展第二增长曲线_48页_1mb.pdf
(688098)()()S0350521070001 S()2023 01 16 1 2 300 1M 3M 12M-3.9%14.3%-26.0%300 3.3%8.6%-14.5%2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 358 334 463 644(%)6-7 39 39 110 87 144 223(%)-15-21 66 55 0.27 0.21 0.35 0.54ROE(%)7 6 9 13P/E 40.89 39.72 23.93 15.44P/B 3.07 2.24 2.12 1.94P/S 12.65 10.29 7.43 5.34EV/EBITDA 28.30 24.09 15.86 10.81 Wind-0.4034-0.3201-0.2368-0.1536-0.07030.0130 300 3 2010 6-O O A O A 2007 2021 O A 4+2018 2020 500 42.9%2017 10.2 2021 686 2018-2021 14.35%2013-2017 GAGR=4.10%3.5 2019 2020 2021 10%2021 19.14%2022 17.05%20%2021 75.78%2021 63 30 800 30 2021 3.58 3.05 7.3%5243.6 556.7%14.7%2023 2023-2024 2022-2024 0.87/1.44/2.23 PE 39.72/23.93/15.44 4 5 61.1 2001 6 2019 10 2600+2700+2800 O A 2600+2700+MM13 2018 62.8%2021 O A Re-O/MYA98/JSCZ/2013+Re-A/WH/09 O 2004 2007 O GMP O O 2001 2004 2007 2009 2017 OA OA 2018 GMP 2020 OA 2021 2010 1 O 2600+2700+2800 O A 2700+2800+MM13 O A Re-O/MYA98/JSCZ/2013+Re-A/WH/09 2 71.1 99%2021 3.58 99.82%0.18%2021 85.34%2018 9.46 3 2021 4 2021 81.2 2022H1 31.96%wind UBI 0.01%23.42%5.04%21.93%12.13%7.31%1.54%90%10%52.05%5 2022H1 91.3 2013-2021 8.04%12.87%2017-2019 2020 23 24 2 OKM CHO-133D 22Q3 2022 2.87 5.2%0.72 21.25%22Q3 24/1.48 24.24%0.49 3.39%wind 302.08 275.14 253.81 337.73 358.43-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0501001502002503003504002017/12/31 2018/12/31 2019/12/31 2020/12/31 2021/12/31 6 2017-2021 98.6887.5877.96129.51110.2-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0204060801001201402017/12/31 2018/12/31 2019/12/31 2020/12/31 2021/12/31归母净利润 同比 7 2017-2021 101.3 2017-2021 80.37%32.53%2021 22Q3 22 77.20%21 3.74 wind 8 9 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2017/12/31 2018/12/31 2019/12/31 2020/12/31 2021/12/31 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2017/12/31 2018/12/31 2019/12/31 2020/12/31 2021/12/31 11 122.1 2021 2018 2018 Q4 2019-2020 2019 Q3 3000 4100 26.83%2019 2020 5.44 5.27 1 2019 Q4 2021 6.7 wind 10 11-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%010000200003000040000500006000070000800002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 132.1 2017 500 53.1%2020 500 42.9%2017 10.2 2021 12 9569.51 14.26%2017 9.05 2016-2021 1.05%6%2022 6100 2021 9%wind 12 130.5%1.1%1.6%1.9%3.4%6.0%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 4%5%7%8%11%14%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 142.2 2020 28.37/20.59/7.78/35.14/11.17/2020 63.09 27.95/14/15 2017-2021/051015202530 104.35106.4279.9163.0979.200204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 152.2 2018 459 5.18%2019 2021 686 2018 49.5%2018-2021 14.35%2013-2017 CAGR=4.10%3.5 2018-2021 8.59%16 2018 17 2018 412 435 452 472 484 459 504 621 686-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01002003004005006007008002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 94 104 107 131 134 133 118 162 170-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0204060801001201401601802013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 16 173.1 2012 2012-2020 2022-2025 2022 2022-2025 2025 2007 2021-2020 2012 2016 2021 2022-2025 2022 2022 2025 18 183.1 2018 132.92 41.97%58.03%2018 52.51 38.74%61.26%2013 2018 18.79%61.26%19 2013-2018/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20 2013-2018/193.1 2022 10 1 2 3 21 1 1.1/1.2/1.3 1.4/1.5 DNA RNA 1.6 1.7 2 2.1/2.2 2.3/2.4 2.5 2.6 20 214.1 VLP 22 224.1 80 2021 75.78%2021 23 2021 O A 2700+2800+MM13 O A PO98+PA13 O TC98+7309+TC07 2 OKM 2 2 CP08 HN1201-gE gE HNX-12 2426.41%28.38%75.87%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%234.1 2009 13 2010 2014 2018 2021 47.25%38.97%13.77%52.75%25 26 2021 2010-2014 2 LG 2010 2 SH 2010 2 DBN-SX07 2011 2 WH 2012 2014-2018 2 2014 2 CP08 2014 2 2017 2018-2 SH+HN0613 2018 2 CP08+JM 2019 2 cap+SY 2020 244.2 VLP virus-like particle,VLP VLP 2006 4 human papillomavirus,HPV VLP 2017 VLPs 27 254.2 DNA RNA DNA RNA mRNA 1 mRNA 2 mRNA 3 mRNA mRNA 28 mRNA 29 mRNA 30 LNP mRNA 264.2 mRNA mRNA mRNA RNA mRNA mRNA 31 mRNA mRNA FMDV P1-2A 3C RNA mRNA mRNA mRNA CV7201 G mRNA mRNA mRNA mRNA+40 C mRNA2019 PRRSV GP5-Mosaic DNA PRRSV 27 28 2019-2021/10%2021 19.14%2021 5.1 2 OKM CHO-133D SD14+HuN16+HeN17 0 2600+2700+2800 0 A 2700+2800+MM13 O A Re-O/MYA98/JSCZ/2013+Re-A/WH/09 O A 0506+0708 A ELIS VP1 PCR ELISA 26.5633.8068.590%5%10%15%20%25%010203040506070802019/12/31 2020/12/31 2021/12/31/32 2019-2021 33 29 2021 3 O A 2023 2024 2 OKM 2022 12 O A 0506+0708 CHO-133D 2024 SD14+HuN16+HeN17 2023 5.1 O A 2000 SD14+HuN16+HeN17 3000 2 OKM 1000 CHO-133D 2800 2024 2 500 0 A 0506+0708 3000 2024 1800 2024 A ELISA 300 2024 ELISA 240 34 2022Q2 30+2021 63 30 800 30 2016 30 30 60 30 28 5.2 35 2021 31 2019 46 2021 63 2021 2548 43.55%531 59.77%2021 85.34%14.66%2021 2018 9.46 5.2 3794.61%94.80%85.34%5.39%5.20%14.66%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2021 13.25.3117.7525.480510152025302020 2021 36 2021+45.55%32 5.3 38 Fmoc/tBu O O A O A 2021 5 2022 1 1456S O A 2 OKM E2 2 O A VP1 PCRj VP1 33 90 3 60 30 80 5.3 39 34 O VP1 G-H Th 2004 5.3 40 41 35-Fmoc/tBu 2014 T B 5.3 42 2014-O 2600+2700+2800 2600 201210301038.3 201310048322.9 2700 2800 T-help O A 2700+2800+MM13 2700 201210301038.3 201310048322.9 2800 T-help MM13 A 201510388212.6 36 146s 2021 5 2022 1 2 OKM CHO-133D SD14+HuN16+HeN17 5.3 O A 10%99.5%146S 43 5 37-20 20 GE 99.5%5.3 44 i-MoISta 45 38 2021 67,702 2.5 2021 5 GMP DCS 2020 7 34,152 2 2022H1 32,000 9,600 5.4 46 39 GMP A B GMP 5.4 47 4 O O A O A 2.5 O A 7000-7000/2 40 41 2021 99.82%1 2022 5 2023 2 2 2023 2024 3 2022-2024 3.33 4.61 6.42 72.03%77.90%82.54%21 1%2022-2024 50%100%2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 337.39 357.79 333.02 461.23 642.06yoy 32.99%6.05%-6.92%38.50%39.21%55.10 86.99 93.14 101.94 112.12 83.67%75.69%72.03%77.90%82.54%0.34 0.64 0.96 1.44 2.16yoy 209.29%88.24%50%50%50%0.34 0.64 0.96 1.44 2.16 100%100%100%100%100%48 wind 42 2022 2023 2023 1 2021 O A 2023 2024 2 OKM CHO-133D 2 2022-2024 0.87/1.44/2.23 PE 39.72/23.93/15.44 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 358.43 333.98 462.67 644.22(%)6.13-6.82 38.53 39.24 110.20 86.52 143.63 222.64(%)-14.91-21.49 66.00 55.00 0.27 0.21 0.35 0.54ROE(%)7.45 5.65 8.84 12.55P/E 40.89 39.72 23.93 15.44P/B 3.07 2.24 2.12 1.94P/S 12.65 10.29 7.43 5.34EV/EBITDA 28.30 24.09 15.86 10.81 Wind 43 441234567 8 45 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 468 429 527 617 155 239 198 231 103 104 95 80 7 10 10 14 733 780 831 943 634 727 759 789 134 67 74 88 95 105 116 131 2 2 2 2 1598 1680 1782 1953 0 0 0 0 11 15 11 14 0 0 0 0 102 129 145 171 114 144 156 185 0 0 0 0 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 125 156 168 197 411 411 411 411 1473 1525 1614 1756 1598 1680 1782 1953 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 358 334 463 644 87 93 102 112 4 3 4 6 63 61 86 119 58 53 72 100-2-1 0-1/-35 33 46 71 129 103 168 259-3-3-3-3 126 100 165 256 22 15 25 40 104 85 140 216-6-2-3-7 110 87 144 223 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 90 71 246 268 110 87 144 223-6-2-3-7 44 47 52 56-2 0 0 0-50-57 61 7-127-78-96-105-188-85-106-119 49 0 0 0 11 7 10 13-32-33-51-74 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0-40-33-51-74-69-40 99 90 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024EEPS 0.27 0.21 0.35 0.54BVPS 3.60 3.73 3.96 4.32P/E 40.9 39.7 23.9 15.4P/B 3.1 2.2 2.1 1.9P/S 12.6 10.3 7.4 5.3 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024EROE 7%6%9%13%76%72%78%83%33%34%34%34%31%26%31%35%6%-7%39%39%-15%-21%66%55%0.22 0.20 0.26 0.33 2.37 1.40 2.33 2.79 3.47 3.23 4.89 8.08 8%9%9%10%6.46 5.43 5.34 5.09 5.54 4.68 4.71 4.65 688098 8.37()20230113 wind 46,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%2022 Choice 2 2022 4 2022 5 4 2020 5 2022 5 2022 20 6 47 R3/28F 518041 0755 83706353 8 7F 200010 021-60338252 168 25F 100044 010-88576597 48
