深度报告-20230117-华安证券-国能日新-301162.SZ-布局储能能量管理系统_业务持续高增长_24页_1mb.pdf
Table_Summary 10+2019 22.10%18.8%2025 30.00%26.00%+10 60 50%2022-2024 3.92/5.36/7.12 30.5%/36.9%/32.8%0.74/0.96/1.38 25.1%/29.9%/43.2%2021-2024 CAGR 33.4%2022-2024 EPS 1.04/1.36/1.94 2022-2024 EPS PE 100/77/54 1 2 3 4 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 300 392 536 712 20.9%30.5%36.9%32.8%59 74 96 138 9.2%25.1%29.9%43.2%63.4%64.7%65.7%66.7%ROE(%)27.3%26.1%26.1%28.4%0.83 1.04 1.36 1.94P/E 125.67 100.49 77.34 54.01P/B 30.19 23.21 17.85 13.42EV/EBITDA 111.22 90.35 69.56 47.86 Table_StockNameRptType 301162/Table_Rank 2023-01-17 Table_BaseData 104.90 12/113.58/45.87 70.89 17.73%25.01 74.37 18.60 Table_Chart 300 Table_Author S0010522070003 S0010522060002 S0010121090040-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%300 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 1.4 1.1.4 1.2.5 1.3.6 2.9 2.1.9 2.2.11 2.3.13 2.4.15 3.16 3.1.16 3.2.18 4.20 4.1.20 4.2.21.22 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 3/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 1.4 2.5 3.6 4.6 5.7 6.7 7.8 8.9 9 2021-2025.10 10 2021-2026.11 11.12 12 2019.14 13 2019.14 14.15 15.16 16.17 17.18 18.18 19.19 20.21 21 2023 1 16.22 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 4/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 1 1.1 2008 2 2011 2012-2014/AGC/AVC 2013 1 iFinD 2022 4 AI 12 100GW 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 5/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 2 AGC/AVC/1.2 26.83%2008 8.87%2015 2 6.51%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 6/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 3 iFinD 1.3 2018 2019 4 iFinD 0500010000150002000025000300002018 2019 2020 2021H1/敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 7/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 2019 2020 2021 1-6 2018 5.31 2019 5 iFinD 2020 6 1.51 1.69 2.48 3.00 5.63%12.12%46.46%20.92%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.502018 2019 2020 2021 27.8828.3728.740.840.151.76%1.13%42.18%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%0510152025303540452018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 8/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 iFinD 2018 2021 CAGR 42.2%SaaS 7 iFinD 20.5936.4354.2159.1736.3176.90%48.81%9.16%28.58%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 9/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 2 2.1,;,;8 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 10/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162,9 2021-2025 CPIA 0.892.74.510.95 10.615.134.553.0644.2630.148.254.887580859010010554.889095100110122128020406080100120140 GW GW 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 11/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 10 2021-2026 CPIA 2.2,2025 CAGR=15.75%15.25 7.95 7.30 2025 CAGR=17.61%17.27 9.76 7.51 30.7 46.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 53.0 16.9 6.3 8.9 12.4 17.4 24.3 01020304050607080902021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E GW GW 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 12/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 11 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 204.3 252.5 306.0 381.0 461.0 546.0 636.0 GW)75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 GW 141.6 174.3 198.5 247.2 301.5 361.8 427.0 3933 4841 5514 6865 8376 10051 11860/5.77 5.27 5.30 5.40 5.50 5.60 5.70 2.27 2.55 2.92 3.71 4.61 5.63 6.76/8.88 8.86 8.84 8.82 8.80 8.78 8.76 0.80 0.59 1.19 1.33 1.47 1.58 3.36 3.52 4.90 5.94 7.10 8.35 GW 210.1 281.5 328.5 376.1 428.4 487.3 549.7 2694 3609 4212 4822 5493 6248 7048/7.72 6.53 6.60 6.70 6.80 6.90 7.00 2.08 2.36 2.78 3.23 3.74 4.31 4.93/28.76 29.53 29.53 29.53 29.53 29.53 29.53 2.70 1.78 1.80 1.98 2.23 2.36 5.06 4.56 5.03 5.72 6.54 7.30+8.42 8.08 9.93 11.55 13.39 15.25 3.36 3.52 4.90 5.84 6.85 7.95 5.06 4.56 5.03 5.72 6.54 7.30+4.35 4.91 5.70 6.94 8.30 9.82 11.47 2.27 2.55 2.92 3.71 4.57 5.51 6.53 2.08 2.36 2.78 3.23 3.74 4.31 4.93+3.51 2.37 2.99 3.25 3.57 3.78/0.80 0.59 1.19 1.27 1.34 1.42 2.70 1.78 1.80 1.98 2.23 2.36 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 204.3 252.5 306.0 396.0 491.0 591.0 701.0 GW)90.0 95.0 100.0 110.0 GW 141.6 174.3 198.5 256.9 321.1 391.7 470.1 3933 4841 5514 7136 8920 10882 13058/5.77 5.27 5.40 5.50 5.60 5.80 6.00 2.27 2.55 2.98 3.92 4.99 6.31 7.83/8.88 8.86 8.86 8.86 8.86 8.86 8.86 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 13/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 0.80 0.60 1.44 1.58 1.74 1.93 3.36 3.57 5.36 6.58 8.05 9.76 GW 210.1 281.5 328.5 376.1 428.4 487.3 549.7 2694 3609 4212 4822 5493 6248 7048/7.72 6.53 6.60 6.70 6.90 7.10 7.30 2.08 2.36 2.78 3.23 3.79 4.44 5.14/28.76 29.53 29.53 29.53 29.53 29.53 29.53 2.70 1.78 1.80 1.98 2.23 2.36 5.06 4.56 5.03 5.77 6.66 7.51+8.42 8.13 10.39 12.35 14.71 17.27 3.36 3.57 5.36 6.58 8.05 9.76 5.06 4.56 5.03 5.77 6.66 7.51+4.35 4.91 5.70 7.08 8.60 10.27 12.13 2.27 2.55 2.92 3.85 4.87 5.96 7.20 2.08 2.36 2.78 3.23 3.74 4.31 4.93+3.51 2.37 3.23 3.49 3.81 4.10/0.80 0.59 1.43 1.51 1.58 1.74 2.70 1.78 1.80 1.98 2.23 2.36 CPIA 2.3 2019 22.10%18.80%17.70%16.20%6.90%;14.90%13.30%11.70%6.30%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 14/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 12 2019 13 2019,;400 22.10%17.70%16.20%6.90%37.10%18.80%14.90%13.30%11.70%6.30%35.00%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 15/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 2.4 14 2006 2011 2012 2018 2018-2020 2018 2020:2021 2035:20%:2023 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 16/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 3 3.1 3.1.1 15 1.2./3.敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 17/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 3.1.2 16 3.1.3(AGC)(AVC)AGC/AVC 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 18/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 17/18 3.2 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 19/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 EMS+19 1.2.3.AGC 4.AGC/AVC/敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 20/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 4 4.1 1 2 1/2 1 2 3 1 2 1 25%2 1 2 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 21/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 20 4.2 2022-2024 3.92/5.36/7.12 30.5%/36.9%/32.8%0.74/0.96/1.38 25.1%/29.9%/43.2%2021-2024 CAGR 33.39%2022-2024 EPS 1.04/1.36/1.94 2022-2024 EPS PE 101/77/54 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 1.70 2.48 3.00 3.92 5.36 7.12 9.40 12.12%46.46%20.92%30.53%36.89%32.75%32.04%0.49 0.95 1.10 1.38 1.84 2.37 3.07 1.20 1.53 1.90 2.54 3.53 4.75 6.33 70.87%61.70%63.40%64.73%65.74%66.75%67.33%1.15 1.62 1.87 2.40 3.13 3.96 4.93 13.18%40.12%15.80%27.98%30.78%26.50%24.25%0.37 0.71 0.79 0.98 1.25 1.55 1.92 0.79 0.91 1.09 1.41 1.88 2.42 3.00 68.29%56.27%58.00%59.00%60.00%61.00%61.00%16.70%35.80%45.57%60.74%83.15%106.82%131.64%-42.30%113.72%27.29%33.28%36.89%28.47%23.24%0.04 0.14 0.16 0.22 0.31 0.41 0.51 0.12 0.22 0.30 0.39 0.52 0.66 0.80 74.14%60.69%65.00%64.00%63.00%62.00%61.00%0.11 0.14 0.17 0.21 0.27 0.33 0.42 482.20%26.22%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.10 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.25 0.31 0.39 91.48%97.13%97.00%96.00%95.00%94.00%93.00%0.16 0.29 0.41 0.59 1.00 1.61 2.57 49.49%74.74%41.84%45.00%70.00%60.00%60.00%0.02 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.19 0.31 0.50 0.14 0.24 0.34 0.48 0.82 1.30 2.07 87.80%82.55%82.50%82.00%81.50%81.00%80.50%0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02-21.71%-44.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 59.71%56.32%56.00%55.00%54.00%53.00%52.00%0.06 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.15 65.79%2.23%22.03%20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 34.74%35.61%36.00%36.00%36.00%36.00%36.00%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 22/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 SaaS 2022 PE 165/134/106 21 2023 1 16 iFinD 1 2 3 4 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 600588.SH 23.88 0.21 0.18 0.28 0.38 116 134 85 62 688111.SH 278.99 2.26 2.64 3.64 4.92 124 106 77 57 688248.SH 61.80 0.25 0.38 0.86 1.32 244 165 72 47 301162.SZ 104.90 0.83 1.04 1.36 1.94 126 100 77 54 PE 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 23/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 410 527 692 877 300 392 536 712 83 130 134 202 110 138 184 237 198 227 340 413 2 3 4 5 3 4 5 7 66 93 129 173 2 3 4 5 59 85 114 154 68 91 121 153(0)(2)(2)(2)55 163 208 251 6(4)(6)(7)22 31 48 78 1(3)(16)(10)0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 8 17 34 63 65 83 107 154 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 14 14 14 14 0 0 0 0 432 559 740 955 65 83 107 154 183 236 321 398 6 8 11 16 3 0 2 1 59 74 96 138 149 197 268 331(0)0(0)0 31 39 52 67 59 74 96 138 2 2 2 2 EBITDA 67 82 107 154 0 0 0 0 0.83 1.04 1.36 1.94 2 2 2 2 185 238 323 400 0 0 0 1 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 53 71 71 71 24 32 41 55 20.92%30.52%36.89%32.75%169 218 304 429 7.41%26.95%29.54%43.62%246 320 417 554 9.16%25.06%29.93%43.19%432 559 740 955 63.39%64.73%65.74%66.75%19.72%18.89%17.93%19.34%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE(%)27.30%26.12%26.10%28.37%44 73 30 105 ROIC(%)37.32%34.29%37.38%37.94%59 74 96 138 1 1 2 3 42.90%42.60%43.68%41.90%(0)(2)(2)(2)-32.22%-40.54%-31.76%-36.21%(1)(1)(2)(2)2.24 2.23 2.15 2.20(22)1(64)(32)1.86 1.85 1.78 1.82 8(0)0 0 23(24)(30)(39)0.79 0.79 0.83 0.84(6)(10)(18)(33)1.75 1.84 1.89 1.89 26(14)(11)(6)0.82 0.80 0.79 0.79 3 0 0 0(8)(1)3 1 0.83 1.04 1.36 1.94 3(3)1(1)0.84 1.03 0.43 1.48 0 0 0 0 4.63 4.52 5.88 7.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P/E 125.7 100.5 77.3 54.0(11)2 2 2 P/B 30.2 23.2 17.9 13.4 60 48 4 68 EV/EBITDA 111.22 90.35 69.56 47.86 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 24/24 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 301162 Table_Introduction 2 14,7,2022 2021 8 Table_Reputation Table_RankIntroduction 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%
