深度报告-20230116-国海证券-凯伦股份-300715.SZ-公司深度研究_行业底部回升_差异化战略抢占先机_26页_2mb.pdf
2023 01 1 6()S0350521080005 S0350121080056 T ab l e_T i t l e 3 0 0 7 1 5 300 2023/01/13 1M 3M 12M-1.8%8.7%-15.6%300 3.3%8.6%-14.5%2023/01/13 14.43 52 10.97-19.58 5,554.25 4,010.62 38,490.96 27,793.61 55.43%0.50 300715*2022-11-25 1 2022 11 2 2022 11 3 50%4 1 2024 50%2 3000 3 2022-2024 0.41 1.31 2.34 EPS 0.11 0.34 0.61 PE 137X 42.54X 23.71X-0.3841-0.2986-0.2131-0.1276-0.04200.043522/1 22/2 22/3 22/4 22/5 22/6 22/7 22/8 22/9 22/1122/12 23/1 300 2 Table_Forcast1 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2586 2221 2699 3281(%)29-14 22 22 72 41 131 234(%)-74-44 222 79 0.19 0.11 0.34 0.61 ROE(%)3 2 5 8 P/E 92.60 137.00 42.54 23.71 P/B 2.57 2.16 2.05 1.89 P/S 2.79 2.50 2.06 1.69 EV/EBITDA 43.03 32.10 21.23 14.54 Wind 3 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.5 1.2.1.6 1.2.2.7 1.2.3.8 2.10 2.1.10 2.2.12 2.3.13 2.3.1.14 2.3.2.15 3.16 3.1.16 3.2.16 3.2.1.16 3.2.2.17 3.2.18 3.3.18 4.20 5.22 6.23 4 1.5 2.6 3 2018 2022.7 4.7 5.10 6.10 7%.10 8.11 9.11 10.11 11.11 12.13 13.13 14 400mm.14 15/.16 16“”.17 17 2021.17 18 2015-2020.17 19 2018-2022.20 20 2018-2022.20 21 2018-2022 ROE.20 22 2018-2022.20 1.8 2“”.12 3.13 4.15 5 2022.18 6.22 5 1 1.1 2011 7 13 2012 MBP 2017 10 26 A 1.2 1 1/25 6 2 1.2.1 2018-2021 2022 2217.02 5032.72 10591.60 13877.83 8777.53 3.58%4.32%5.28%5.37%5.73%CE REACH BBA FM LARR SGS 7 3 2 0 18 202 2 Wind 1.2.2 2022 5200 5G 4 8 1.2.3 TPO PVC G GL TPO PVC TMP CSPV CSPV 25 25 25 50%1 CSPV CSPV 25 TPO(G)(GL)10000 25 PVC 8000 6.5Kpa,9 TMP/PMP TPO PVC 10 2 2022 2022 5 6 Wind Wind 7%Wind 2.1 2022 11 2022 1-11 12.39 9.8%23.3%38.9%19%8 9 Wind Wind 10 11 Wind Wind 2022 11 5 12 2 16 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.“”8.9.10.11.12.13.14.15.16.2500 5 REITs 2.2 2022 11 11 2022 12 7 2023 2023 13 12 13 2.3 2022 10 24 3 1.400mm 2.80%-85%14 50%-100%1.5mm 1.2mm 1.8mm;1.5mm;1.2mm 20 10 20 2.3.1 400mm 80%-85%50%-100%50%-100%50%1 X X 1 50%-100%X*50%-100%50%14 40 0mm 15 2.3.2 0 2025 50 1800 120 2022-2025 28.52%30.79%32.76%34.92%2025 25.19%7.54%2.19%4 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 20.20%20.39%22.17%23.63%25.19%6.16%6.36%6.72%7.08%7.54%2.05%1.76%1.90%2.05%2.19%71.59%71.48%69.21%67.24%65.08%Wind 16 3 3.1 2021 7 45%2022 6 5700 2022 10 2022 12 30 4390/15/Wind 3.2 2022 1-6 18.37%HDPE LLDPE 6.15%7.17%2024 50%3.2.1 17 80%3-5 8-10 60 2 40-50%16 2021 9.92%2015-2020 2020 3.5 19%17 2 021 18 2 015-202 0 3.2.2 GB50345-2012 18 1.5mm 1.8mm 1.2mm 1.5mm 3.2 2022 700 3000 3.3 2022 1-6 42.07%5 20 22 2022 2022 G080116-1 2022-2024 2022 2021 A 19 2022 B 2021-2023 A 2022-2023 20 4 2022 2022 15.33 20.24%0.22 87.47%-4.06 11.66%ROE 0.84%21.13%1.40%19 201 8-202 2 20 20 1 8-20 2 2 Wind Wind 21 201 8-202 2 ROE 22 201 8-2 02 2 Wind Wind 21 1 2022 11 2 2022 11 3 50%4 1 2 3000 3 22 5 2022 2022 10 24 50%2023 2024 50%2022-2024 20.21 24.50 29.69-14.50%21.20%21.20%25.18%26.66%27.38%2020 31.61%2021 2023 2022-2024 1.62 2.03 2.54-10.00%25.00%25.00%14.64%19.42%25.87%2022-2024 0.37 0.46 0.58-10.01%25.00%25.00%32.36%35.06%37.66%2022-2024 0.41 1.31 2.34 EPS 0.11 0.34 0.61 PE 137X 42.54X 23.71X 6 2 0 2 1 A 2 0 2 2 E 2 0 2 3 E 2 0 2 4 E 25.86 22.21 26.99 32.81 YOY 28.80%-14.11%21.54%21.55%30.34%24.53%26.26%27.45%23.64 20.21 24.50 29.69 92.74%91.02%90.77%90.50%YOY 22.47%-14.50%21.20%21.20%30.58%25.18%26.66%27.38%1.80 1.62 2.03 2.54 6.97%7.31%7.52%7.73%YOY 267.35%-10.00%25.00%25.00%27.52%14.64%19.42%25.87%0.41 0.37 0.46 0.58 1.59%1.67%1.72%1.77%YOY 24.24%-10.01%25.00%25.00%23 44.66%32.36%35.06%37.66%Wind 6 24 Table_Forcast 300715 1 4.4 3 2 0 2 3/0 1/1 3 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE 3%2%5%8%EPS 0.20 0.11 0.34 0.61 30%25%26%27%BVPS 7.22 6.69 7.03 7.64 13%18%17%15%3%2%5%7%P/E 92.60 137.00 42.54 23.71 P/B 2.57 2.16 2.05 1.89 29%-14%22%22%P/S 2.79 2.50 2.06 1.69-74%-44%222%79%2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 0.46 0.40 0.48 0.56 2586 2221 2699 3281 1.54 1.26 1.77 2.09 1801 1676 1990 2380 11.31 9.62 10.81 15.39 12 11 13 15 197 228 268 317 50%54%52%50%117 133 148 164 2.02 2.06 1.89 1.83 18 31 34 26 1.78 1.80 1.64 1.59/-139 115 142 172 78 45 141 252 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E-2-2-2-2 1532 1284 1419 1479 76 43 139 250 2019 2069 1896 1931 5 3 9 16 229 231 250 213 71 40 131 234 549 469 482 548-1 0 0 0 4328 4054 4047 4172 72 41 131 234 834 847 851 848 139 339 439 489 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 327 325 325 325-384-44 5 1 1 388 0 0 0 0 72 41 131 234 5628 5564 5662 5834-1 0 0 0 696 758 820 874 60 89 95 103 955 767 836 883 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-785-222 246 20 491 444 480 517-1368-304-204-155 2142 1969 2136 2274-346-302-202-152 604 954 754 554-12 0 0 0 64 64 64 64-1009-2-3-3 669 1018 818 618 1630 100-171-173 2 8 1 1 2987 2955 2892 414 412-137-147 390 385 385 385 1548-53 0 0 2817 2577 2708 2942-333-259-34-26 5628 5564 5662 5834-123-248 135 60 Wind 2019 6 6 2021 6 TMT 2021 2021 2 2021,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%R3/
