深度报告-20230113-国海证券-万华化学-600309.SH-公司动态研究_POE项目公告_福建MDI项目投产_34页_2mb.pdf
2023 01 13()S0350521080004 S0350521080009 S0350121080058 Table_Title POE MDI 600309 300 2023/01/12 1M 3M 12M 0.4%-3.2%-5.1%300 1.6%6.2%-17.1%2023/01/12 91.20 52 73.50-100.98 286,344.89 286,344.89 313,974.66 313,974.66 482.79%0.26 600309 2022 4*2022-05-08 600309 Q1*2022-04-26 600309*2022-04-11 600309:MDI 19.18%2022 12 31 2022 Q4 85.12 2022 Q3 0.12 19.18%2022 Q3 0.14 2010 Q1 10-12 2022 34 2022 Q4 110.67 2022 Q3 2.89 28.21%2022 Q4 60.50 2022 Q3 2.73 0.00%2022 Q4 50.39 2022 Q3 3.09 11.89%2022 12 23 40 MDI 2022 12 22 2022 12 2 1.2 PTBP 1.2/-0.2638-0.2048-0.1457-0.0867-0.02760.031422/1 22/2 22/3 22/4 22/5 22/6 22/7 22/9 22/1022/1122/12 23/1 300 2 2022 3 PLA*2022-04-07 600309 MDI PLA*2022-03-24 PTBP 2022 12 13 15/19.5/2022 12 16 1#2#1#2#2022 12 23 0.42 0.98 0.42/BON 2022 12 23 6000 1.47 6000/2022 12 23 2.6 20/14 2022 2022 216 2022-2023 564 1819 MDI 2022 12 MDI 14503/-24.89%+1.14%MDI 16677/-18.81%-13.13%2022 12 31 MDI 14800/MDI 17350/2022 12 MDI 8918/-35.28%+1.81%MDI 11092/-26.11%-18.55%2022 12 31 MDI 9260.5/MDI 11811/2022 1-11 7794.03-5.35%5147.0-21.73%2022 1-11 3261.4-9.36%2022 11 758.6-6.17%+9.94%356.0-37.43%286.5-15.41%+2.25%2022 11 238.59-7.69%-8.19%232.77-7.69%-7.07%3 2022 1-11 11.16-38.94%2022 11 0.79-50.82%-11.66%2022 1-11 89.69-6.54%2022 2022-2024 170.38 250.54 324.93 PE 16.8 11.4 8.8 Table_Forcast1 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 145538 169328 191664 228581(%)98 16 13 19 24649 17038 25054 32493(%)145-31 47 30 7.85 5.43 7.98 10.35 ROE(%)36 20 23 23 P/E 12.87 16.81 11.43 8.81 P/B 4.63 3.35 2.59 2.00 P/S 2.18 1.69 1.49 1.25 EV/EBITDA 9.06 10.98 8.32 6.22 Wind 4 1.7 2.7 3.8 4.10 5.16 5.1 MDI.16 5.1.1 MDI.16 5.1.2 MDI.18 5.1.3 MDI.20 5.2 TDI.23 5.2.1 TDI.24 5.2.2 TDI.24 5.3.25 6.27 7.29 8.31 9.31 5 1.7 2 19.18%.8 3.8 4.9 5.9 6 28.21%.16 7 MDI 28.80%.16 8 MDI.16 9 MDI.16 10 MDI.17 11 MDI.17 12 MDI.17 13 MDI.17 14.17 15 MDI.18 16 MDI.18 17 MDI.18 18 MDI.18 19 MDI.18 20 MDI.19 21 MDI.19 22 MDI.19 23 MDI.19 24.20 25.20 26.21 27.21 28.21 29.21 30:.21 31:.21 32.22 33.22 34.22 35.22 36.22 37.22 38.23 39.23 40 TDI 27.88%.23 41 TDI.24 42 TDI.24 43 TDI.24 44 TDI.24 6 45 TDI.24 46 TDI.24 47 TDI.25 48.25 49.26 50.26 51.26 52 0%.27 53-.27 54-.27 55-.27 56-.27 57 LLDPE.28 58.28 59 PVC.28 60-.28 61-.28 62 MTBE.28 63 11.89%.29 64 HDI.29 65 IPDI.29 66 PC-0.9*A.30 67 SAP.30 68 MMA.30 69 PMMA.30 70 TPU.30 71.30 1.7 2 12.10 3.15 4.15 5 MDI.18 6 MDI.19 7 MDI.19 8 MDI 2022 12.20 9 TDI 2022 11.25 7 1 2022 12 31 92.65+3.52%-4.15%300+0.48%2 1 2022/12/29 2023 1 MDI 2023 1 MDI 16800/2022 12 MDI 20500/2022 12 500/2022/12/23 MDI 40 MDI 2022 12 22 2022/12/14 176 120/120/25/LDPE 2 20/POE 20/55/3/40/2024 10 wind 1 wind 0204060801001201401602015-012015-042015-072015-102016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-01 600309.SH 8 3 2022 12 31 2022 Q4 85.12 2022 Q3 0.12 19.18%2022 Q3 0.14 2010 Q1 2 19.18%wind 2010 Q1 3 wind 100%2022 11 30 MDI 110/TDI 30/2022 10 11 2022 11 30 0204060801001201401601802010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3 9 4 wind 5 wind 10 4 2022 12 2 1.2 PTBP 1.2/PTBP 2022 12 13 15/19.5/2022 12 16 1#2#1#2#2022 12 23 0.42 0.98 0.42/BON 2022 12 23 6000 1.47 6000/2022 12 23 2.6 20/14 2022 2022 216 2022-2023 564 1819 2 12/2022/2022 2023-176.7 30 10616 28.18 28.18 28.18 2021 65 8279 47.62 47.62 47.62 1 11.60 1 301433 13.34 26.68 26.68 2021-6 3.60 PBAT 6 25479 6.76 13.53 13.53 2021-11 0.74 2022-12 5.14 TPU 7 23328 14.45 14.45 14.45 2022-1.62 3 11823 3.14 3.14 3.14 2022 9000/PDMS 0.91 0.4 30681 1.22 2.44 2.44 2022-0.4 0.1 10/4.42 7 10000 4.42 8.85 8.85 2022-1 N,N-2 20 5 11823 2.62 5.23 5.23 2022 0.05 3 11823 1.57 3.14 3.14 2022 2.5 TPU TPU MDI TPU 3.3 23328 3.41 6.81 6.81 2022-0.05 0.3 50000 0.66 1.33 1.33 2022-48 A 62.36 A 48 22403 47.58 95.16 95.16 2022 6-28 2.32 17 11823 8.89 17.79 17.79 2022 10 11823 5.23 10.46 10.46 4 12 PA12 25.48 12 4 150000 26.55 53.10 53.10 2022-12 5 5 10000 4.42 4.42 2022-6 6 13264 7.04 7.04 2022 40/MDI 56.05 MDI 40 19199 33.98 67.96 2023 14 PC 11.09 PC 14 19200 11.89 23.79 2023-23.70 4.8 80000 16.99 33.98 2023-MDI/HDI 180/MDI 41.61 MDI 60 19199 50.97 101.94 2023 MDI 28 15000 18.58 37.17 HDI 5 73748 16.32 32.63-HDI 6 73748 19.58 39.16 25/TDI 19.27 TDI 25 18342 20.29 40.58 2023 8 NMP NMP 8 45600 16.14 32.28 2023-20/17.81 20 11192 9.90 19.81 2023-176.0 2#60000/PSA 120 2024 2#55 40 8475 30.00 2#20 9402 16.64 LDPE 25 10973 24.28 POE 40 25000 88.50 MMA 20.51 PMMA 8 17724 12.55 2024-MMA 8 11679 8.27 MAA 4 11679 4.13 13 12 5.14 TPU 5 23328 10.32 2024-9/0.62 5 15000 6.64 2024-20 2726 4.82 2024 BDO 10 22687 20.08 108 108 11983 114.52 2024 80 PVC 46.3 VCM 80 6278 44.45 2024 PVC 80 7713 54.61 25%wt 7.52 539 0.36 CMP Pad+slurry 15.70 1.5-2 36/kg 7.20 2024-CMP Pad 60/3000/18.00 40/POCHP 24.81 40 10616 37.58 2024 5 5 150264 66.49 2024-3/4.28 3 18000 4.78 2024-48 2.32 48 1244 5.28 2024 85/12.08 85 11823 88.93 2024 4 2.97 4 50000 17.70 2024-2/MQ 2.86 MQ 2 32400 5.73 2024-7.5 PLA 7.5 26000 17.26 2024-14 231 PP 30 19200 50.97 2025 50 11823 52.31 2025 5.17 10349 4.74 2025 16 11927 16.89 2025 2 17772 3.15 2025 30 7832 20.79 2025 5 3.42 5 27058 11.97 2025-6 2.04 6 20636 10.96 2025 14.89 W 1.11 157946 15.51 2025-0.96 38254 3.26 2025 3 1,3-3 30000 7.96 2025-10/17.33 10 22687 20.08 2025 18.93 HMDA 3 70000 18.58 2025-XDI 0.6 150000 7.96 2025 3 25000 6.64 2025-2.5 20000 4.42 2025 2/2 60000 10.62 2025-0.42 0.98-0.42 108480 4.03 2025-6000 1.47 0.6 44490 2.36 2025-2.6 PC 14 19200 23.79 2025-36 PO/EO 36 9224 29.39 2025 1.2 PTBP 1.2 12000 1.27 2026-15 4.5 7832 3.12 2027 1090.8 215.7 564.0 1818.6 wind 3 2022 80.0 176.7 114.3 371.0 2022-2023 120.1 194.5 169.9 484.5 217.8 525.0 348.0 1090.8 2022 21.4 75.8 118.4 215.7 2022-2023 163.6 92.8 307.7 564.0 564.2 484.6 769.8 1818.6 wind 4 2022/12/23 6000 2022/12/23 2022/12/23 0.42 2022/12/16 2022/12/13 2022/12/2 1.2 PTBP 6 7 7 16 5 MDI TDI 2022 12 31 2022 Q4 110.67 2022 Q3 2.89 28.21%2022 Q3 2.00 2022 12 31 2022 Q4 MDI 129.38 2022 Q3 4.24 28.80%2022 Q3 2.74 6 28.21%7 MDI 28.80%wind 2010 Q1 wind 2010 Q1 5.1 MDI 5.1.1 MDI 8 MDI 9 MDI wind wind 0501001502002502010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3 0501001502002503002010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3 MDI 0500010000150002000025000300003500040000 MDI()/MDI/05001000150020002500300035004000:MDI MDI:/:MDI:/17 10 MDI Wind Bloomberg 11 MDI 12 MDI wind wind 13 MDI 14 wind wind 050001000015000200002500030000350004000005000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000 MDI-0.775*-*0.362-*0.608()/MDI/05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500005000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000 MDI-1.5*-0.63*()/MDI/050001000015000200002500030000350000500010000150002000025000300003500040000 MDI-1.5*-0.63*()/MDI/05001000150020002500/18 5.1.2 MDI 15 MDI 16 MDI 17 MDI 5 MDI 2022-12 7.23 7.22 14.46 2022-11 3.40 7.79 11.19 2022-10 1.82 6.66 8.48 2022-09 5.68 6.66 12.34 2022-08 6.20 6.23 12.43 2022-07 6.20 8.29 14.49 2022-06 6.72 8.35 15.07 2022-05 7.23 7.66 14.89 2022-04 7.23 7.66 14.89 2022-03 7.23 7.72 14.96 2022-02 6.53 7.48 14.02 2022-01 7.00 3.29 10.29 2021-12 8.00 2.38 10.38 2021-11 7.00 9.17 16.17 2021-10 4.55 9.11 13.66 2021-09 4.55 9.11 13.66 18 MDI 19 MDI wind wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520252022-112022-092022-072022-052022-032022-012021-112021-092021-072021-052021-032021-012020-112020-092020-072020-052020-032020-01MDI%-80%-40%0%40%80%120%160%051015202530%020000400006000080000100000120000140000:MDI MDI 05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000:MDI MDI 19 20 MDI 21 MDI wind wind 6 MDI 7 MDI 2022-11 1.09 5.71 6.80 2022-11 0.02 0.84 0.86 2022-10 1.15 3.16 4.30 2022-10 0.05 0.55 0.59 2022-09 2.51 4.31 6.82 2022-09 0.03 0.55 0.57 2022-08 1.21 3.41 4.62 2022-08 0.05 0.60 0.65 2022-07 2.28 4.65 6.94 2022-07 0.25 0.74 1.00 2022-06 3.66 5.12 8.78 2022-06 0.24 0.66 0.90 2022-05 4.39 5.26 9.65 2022-05 0 0.95 0.95 2022-04 1.40 5.99 7.39 2022-04 0 0.89 0.89 2022-03 4.21 3.66 7.87 2022-03 0.01 0.74 0.75 2022-02 1.66 3.05 4.72 2022-02 0.07 0.67 0.75 2022-01 2.58 4.50 7.09 2022-01 0.22 0.51 0.73 2021-12 1.99 3.59 5.58 2021-12 0.15 0.51 0.65 2021-11 2.08 4.48 6.56 2021-11 0.12 0.74 0.86 2021-10 1.01 4.93 5.94 2021-10 0.06 0.58 0.64 2021-09 2.65 4.51 7.16 2021-09 0.05 0.85 0.90 2021-08 1.88 4.77 6.65 2021-08 0.04 0.57 0.61 22 MDI 23 MDI 02000400060008000100001200014000:MDI 0200040006000800010000120001400016000:MDI 708090100110120130 MDI()02468101214161820 MDI()20 8 MDI 2022 12/120 110 40 2022 12 22 37 22 60 40 12 8 62 17 20 41 34 33 2022 12 23 40 50 65 19 47 40 35 7 40 25 1012 5.1.3 MDI 24 25 wind wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%020040060080010002022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-50%0%50%100%150%01002003004005006007008002022 2021 20202019 2022 2021 21 26 27 wind ifind wind ifind 28 29 wind ifind wind ifind 30:31:wind wind-50%0%50%100%150%200%0501001502002503003504004502022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%0501001502002503003504004502022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-50%0%50%100%150%200%0501001502002503002022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0204060801001201401601802022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%50607080901002022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02022 2021 20202019 2022 2021 22 32 33 wind wind 34 35 wind wind 36 37 wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-75%-50%-25%0%25%50%75%100%0501001502002503002022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%2022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%2022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%2022 2021 20202019 2022 2021 3035404550556065707580()23 38 39 wind wind 5.2 TDI 2022 12 31 2022 Q4 TDI 74.50 2022 Q3 17.98 27.88%2022 Q3 12.17 40 TDI 27.88%wind 2010 Q1 3003504004505005506006507002015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-07:04008001200160020002015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-07:0204060801001201401601802002010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3 TDI 24 5.2.1 TDI 41 TDI 42 TDI wind 5.2.2 TDI 43 TDI 44 TDI 45 TDI 46 TDI 80001000012000140001600018000200002200024000260002019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11 TDI T80/20(/)05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000550000100002000030000400005000060000TDI-*1.16()/TDI/30405060708090100 TDI()020406080100120140 TDI()02468101214 TDI()05101520253035404550 TDI()25 47 TDI 9 TDI 2022 11()31 5000 30 16 12 10 10 2000 15 124 66.87%5.3 48 wind 0100020003000400050006000700050008000110001400017000200002015-08 2016-08 2017-08 2018-08 2019-08 2020-08 2021-08 2022-08-0.85*()/26 49 wind 50 51-2000-1500-1000-5000500100015002000250030000200040006000800010000120001400016000180002015-08 2016-08 2017-08 2018-08 2019-08 2020-08 2021-08 2022-08-0.85*()/150200250300350400()100150200250300350400()27 6 2022 12 31 2022 Q4 60.50 2022 Q3 2.73 0.00%2022 Q3 4.57 52 0%wind 2010 Q1 53-54-wind wind 55-56-wind wind 50607080901001101201302010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3 0200400600800100002004006008001000120014001600-(,/):/:CFR/0200400600800100002004006008001000120014001600-(,/):/:CFR/010020030040050060070002004006008001000120014001600-(,/):FOB/:CFR/010020030040050060070002004006008001000120014001600-(,/):FOB/:CFR/28 57 LLDPE 58 wind wind 59 PVC 60-wind wind 61-62 MTBE wind wind 40005000600070008000900010000110001200013000LLDPE/01000200030004000500060000200040006000800010000120001400016000()/02000400060008000100001200040006000800010000120001400016000PVC()/PVC()/01000200030004000500060007000400050006000700080009000100001100012000130002018-08 2019-08 2020-08 2021-08 2022-08-/0200040006000800010000120001400016000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002018-08 2019-08 2020-08 2021-08 2022-08-/010002000300040005000600070008000900010000MTBE/29 7 PC PMMA SAP TPU HDI 2022 12 31 2022 Q4 50.39 2022 Q3 3.09 11.89%2022 Q3 5.20 63 11.89%wind 2010 Q1 64 HDI 65 IPDI wind wind 0204060801001202010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3 400005000060000700008000090000100000110000120000HDI/5000060000700008000090000100000110000120000130000IPDI/30 66 PC-0.9*A 67 SAP wind 68 MMA 69 PMMA wind wind 70 TPU 71 wind 05000100001500020000250000500010000150002000025000300003500040000PC-0.9*A PC/8000900010000110001200013000140001500016000SAP/50001000015000200002500030000MMA/100001400018000220002600030000PMMA/1500019000230002700031000TPU/051015202530354045/31 8 2022 2022-2024 170.38 250.54 324.93 PE16.8 11.4 8.8 9 32 Table_Forcast 600309 91.20 2023/01/12 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE 36%20%23%23%EPS 7.85 5.43 7.98 10.35 26%16%19%20%BVPS 21.82 27.24 35.22 45.57 3%3%2%2%17%10%13%14%P/E 12.87 16.81 11.43 8.81 P/B 4.63 3.35 2.59 2.00 98%16%13%19%P/S 2.18 1.69 1.49 1.25 145%-31%47%30%2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.77 145538 169328 191664 228581 16.83 13.76 15.14 14.42 107317 141918 154888 181844 7.96 7.32 7.42 7.63 880 945 958 1143 1052 1050 997 1257 62%61%54%50%1892 1693 1888 2286 0.74 0.78 0.85 1.00 1479 1610 1574 1555 0.54 0.57 0.61 0.74/-3168 3014 3354 4000 29425 20255 29191 37753 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E-274 5 10 10 34216 41478 45295 63653 29151 20260 29201 37763 8646 12304 12657 15852 4112 2695 3562 4607 18282 23133 25817 29976 25039 17565 25638 33156 11147 14826 15385 18621 391 527 585 663 72291 91741 99153 128102 24649 17038 25054 32493 65233 75599 83340 90943 29352 31995 36364 39869 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 19504 22350 25742 28861 27922 35024 31850 46347 3930 5536 7647 9505 24649 17038 25054 32493 190310 227221 252246 297280 391 527 585 663 53873 53873 53873 53873 8161 8562 8569 10017 20390 35962 34338 43197-7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-7323 7158-4209 1288 23739 27514 28523 31544-28758-25981-26252-26208 98002 117349 116735 128614-26845-24708-24584-24647 15644 15644 15644 15644-1996-1756-2261-2008 4968 4968 4968 4968 83 483 593 447 20612 20612 20612 20612 17587-1781-1781-1781 118614 137961 137347 149226 24925 0 0 0 3140 3140 3140 3140 305 0 0 0 71696 89261 114899 148055-7643-1781-1781-1781 190310 227221 252246 297280 16711 7262 3817 18358 Wind 7 7 2 4 1 5 3 2,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%R3/
