深度报告-20230108-国金证券-达仁堂-600329.SH-混改后叠加销售改革_多产品发力业绩可期_15页_2mb.pdf
-1-28.87 42.00()()7.73 A()5.66()220.82()33.20/18.13 300 3981 3158 SA C S1130518080002(8621)60230221 yuan_wei()2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E()6,604 6,908 7,417 8,980 9,878-5.58%4.60%7.38%21.07%10.00%()662 769 884 1,074 1,242 5.78%16.24%15.00%21.44%15.63%()0.855 0.994 1.144 1.389 1.606 0.87 1.10 1.12 1.33 1.38 ROE()()11.39%12.08%12.88%14.22%14.77%P/E 20.48 31.59 25.45 20.95 18.12 P/B 2.33 3.82 3.28 2.98 2.68 2020 67%2021 5 1 2021 2 3 2017 1 2 3 B2B B2C O2O OTC OTC 25%2021 1.5 OTC 2022-2024 8.8/10.7/12.4 15%/21%/16%2023 30 PE 42“”010020030040050060070080017.622.2926.9831.67211129220228220531220831人民币(元)成交金额(百万元)成交金额 达 仁 堂 沪深300达 仁 堂 买入（首次评级）2023 年 1 月 8 日 医疗组-2-.3.5.5.7.7.8.9.10 1.3 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.4 6.5 7 2021 TOP10.5 9.6 8 2012-2022.6 10.7 11.8 12.9 13.10 14.10 15 2023.1.8.10-3-6 4 14 5 2020 2021 5 33%67%2021 7 KPI 2017 2015 2017 2018 12%20%60%2017-2019 60%12 2021 2022 2020 6%2021 69.1 2022 1 wind-4-55.6 4%7.3 10%2 3 wind wind 2018“”()2018 2020 2022 516071 716257647066695617%17%18%-0.1%-13%-9%12%10%-5.6%4.6%3.9%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%01020304050607080/yoy4.43.5 3.64.54.24.85.66.36.67.77.378%-20%2%26%-6%12%18%11%6%16%10%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0/yoy 4 5 wind wind 62%59%62%66%64%66%69%66%68%66%34%34%31%27%26%28%24%25%23%23%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20211H22中成药 西药 其他主营 业务32%30%30%32%39%41%42%39%40%45%46%42%45%54%52%52%51%51%8%6%6%5%9%19%16%14%17%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-5-6 1982 40 2017 2018 2016 2.43%2021 3.21%2016 6.28%2021 7.24%7 2021 T O P 10 1 14+2 9+3 6+4 4+5 3+6 3+7 2+8 2+9 2+10 2+2015 2002 2014 27%26%22%23%22%4.7%5.2%5.4%5.4%4.8%1.6%1.9%2.3%2.3%1.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 1-3Q22-6-2017 1100 ZHANG Xue-Bin 8 2022 15 PDB 2012 2462.14 2021 6811.31 2012-2021 CAGR 11.91%2021 13 9.47%2022 7.70 15 9 2012-2022 PDB 11%16%13%17%17%0%23%0%12%-1%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1H22销售收入 YOY-7-2014 3 5 3 2017 24.55 33.10 2018 10 2021 38 40mg*60*2 12 4 6 3 10-15 3.8 1 5 114 75 601 2018 223 2022 10 2022 2022 20g 50g 2022 10 6 1987-8-OTC OTC 1991 12 11 55%25%20%2020 2021 6.10 1.52 OTC 2022 2021 69%97 103 128 144 121 152 7%24%13%-16%26%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0204060801001201401601802002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021其他投资收益 中美史克投资收益 YOY-9-12 2022 TOP TOP B2B B2C O2O 20 2023 22-24 10%22%16%22-24 56%57%57%22-24-1%22-24 10%74%71%68%72%69%10%11%12%10%12%4%6%7%6%6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-10-13 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 6,994 6,604 6,908 7,417 8,980 9,878 YOY 10%-6%5%7%21%10%4,047 4,028 4,150-4,376-5,208-5,650 42%39%40%41%42%43%4,845 4,370 4,670 5,136 6,267 7,269 YOY%15%-10%7%10%22%16%2,340 2,158 2,293 2,260 2,695 3,126 52%51%51%56%57%57%69%66%68%69%70%74%1,697 1,645 1,596 1580 1564 1548 YOY%-4%-3%-3%-1%-1%-1%1,417 1,420 1,330 1420 1408 1394 16%14%17%10%10%10%24%25%23%21%17%16%2022 14 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 26.2%22.1%22.5%23.0%23.0%23.0%5.2%5.4%5.4%4.9%4.6%4.6%1.9%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.4%2.5%2022-2024 8.8/10.7/12.4 15%/21%/16%2023 30 PE 42“”15 202 3.1.8 EPS PE 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 600085 42.30 0.75 0.89 1.03 1.22 1.43 31.78 50.26 40.94 34.80 29.66 600976 52.80 0.96 2.12 2.60 3.27 4.04 26.35 37.27 20.32 16.16 13.07 002603 29.28 1.01 0.80 0.97 1.15 1.36 25.19 24.37 30.10 25.42 21.51 600129 30.86 0.12-0.94 0.61 0.95 1.39 112.36-23.91 50.22 32.52 22.27 35.52 28.97 21.89 600329 28.87 0.86 0.99 1.14 1.39 1.61 20.48 31.59 24.97 20.56 17.78 Wind-11-2021 69%-12-wind-13-2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 6,994 6,604 6,908 7,417 8,980 9,878 1,479 1,987 2,283 3,336 3,886 4,546-5.6%4.6%7.4%21.1%10.0%1,809 2,007 2,011 2,406 2,667 2,934-4,047-4,028-4,150-4,376-5,208-5,650 1,595 1,488 1,525 1,589 1,712 1,858%57.9%61.0%60.1%59.0%58.0%57.2%252 121 605 123 132 138 2,947 2,576 2,757 3,041 3,772 4,228 5,135 5,604 6,425 7,453 8,398 9,474%42.1%39.0%39.9%41.0%42.0%42.8%65.5%67.6%70.9%74.4%75.9%77.5%-65-58-64-70-85-94 929 825 756 796 836 876%0.9%0.9%0.9%1.0%1.0%1.0%1,364 1,457 1,483 1,462 1,476 1,484-1,829-1,458-1,556-1,706-2,065-2,272%17.4%17.6%16.4%14.6%13.3%12.1%26.2%22.1%22.5%23.0%23.0%23.0%182 211 210 303 352 395-365-357-373-363-413-454 2,708 2,680 2,642 2,564 2,666 2,758%5.2%5.4%5.4%4.9%4.6%4.6%34.5%32.4%29.1%25.6%24.1%22.5%-133-149-161-171-216-247 7,843 8,283 9,067 10,017 11,064 12,232%1.9%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.4%2.5%1 1 32 0 0 0 EBIT 554 553 602 731 992 1,161 1,537 1,742 2,011 2,324 2,621 2,851%7.9%8.4%8.7%9.8%1 1.1%1 1.8%620 420 392 496 598 663 6 27 46 56 70 83 2,157 2,164 2,434 2,820 3,219 3,514%-0.1%-0.4%-0.7%-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%30 30 0 67 67 67-26-5-18-8-6-4 133 140 119 98 41 41-3 0 0-1-1-1 2,320 2,333 2,553 2,985 3,327 3,622 186 160 213 260 200 210 5,388 5,808 6,364 6,865 7,552 8,407%25.0%20.9%24.5%25.1%15.9%14.5%773 774 773 773 773 773 759 785 867 1,037 1,255 1,448 2,772 3,244 3,782 4,279 4,967 5,822 10.9%1 1.9%12.5%14.0%14.0%14.7%135 141 149 167 185 203-16-17 6 0 0 0 7,843 8,283 9,067 10,017 11,064 12,232 743 768 873 1,037 1,255 1,448 10.6%1 1.6%12.6%14.0%14.0%14.7%-108-88-86-135-163-188 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 14.5%1 1.5%9.8%13.0%13.0%13.0%635 680 787 902 1,092 1,260 0.814 0.855 0.994 1.144 1.389 1.606 10 18 18 18 18 18 7.008 7.508 8.229 8.875 9.764 10.870 626 662 769 884 1,074 1,242 0.644 0.868 1.102 1.117 1.327 1.376 8.9%10.0%1 1.1%1 1.9%12.0%12.6%0.300 0.300 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 11.61%11.39%12.08%12.88%14.22%14.77%2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 7.98%7.99%8.48%8.83%9.71%10.15%635 680 787 902 1,092 1,260 8.52%8.18%8.29%8.95%11.06%11.64%10 18 18 18 18 18 127 119 136 117 124 131 9.99%-5.58%4.60%7.38%21.07%10.00%-252-148-211-106-194-204 EBIT 19.26%-0.17%8.86%21.31%35.81%16.97%-15 21 141-49 4-122 11.37%5.78%16.24%15.00%21.44%15.63%495 671 852 864 1,026 1,064 10.38%5.61%9.46%10.48%10.46%10.56%-167-182-128-44-187-183-98 41-335 329-41-41 70.3 79.8 80.6 95.0 85.0 85.0 165 215 151 260 200 210 131.8 139.7 132.5 132.5 120.0 120.0-101 74-312 545-28-14 56.3 60.1 55.6 60.0 55.0 55.0 28 8 0 2 0 0 60.6 64.8 60.9 52.1 41.8 36.6-222 0 0 31-56 0-177-246-245-389-391-391/-27.01%-32.88%-34.57%-46.48%-49.37%-52.01%-370-237-245-356-447-391 EBIT-89.7-20.7-13.2-13.1-14.2-14.1 24 508 296 1,053 551 659 29.58%28.17%28.16%29.80%30.07%29.61%-14-0 6 7 9 20 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 1.25 1.22 1.18 1.00 1 2 3 4 1.00=1.012.0=2.013.0=3.014.0=6 12 15%6 12 5%15%6 12-5%5%6 12 5%-15-C3(C3 021-60753903 021-61038200 201204 1088 7 010-66216979 010-66216793 100053 3 4 0755-83831378 0755-83830558 518000 1-1 T3-2402
