深度报告-20230110-华安证券-容百科技-688005.SH-专注高镍的正极材料龙头_30页_1mb.pdf
Table_Title Table_Summary NCM811 NCA Ni90 NCM811 2020 2021 2022 9 11000 2021 Q1-Q3 9.18 67.21%2022 Q4 2022 1 2022 1-10 528 107.67%2023 12 31 2 22 1-10 141 4.7%23%2022 650 950 2025 1750 4680 4680 4680 2022 23 2030 67 6 2022 EMT 2022 9.6 Table_StockNameRptType 688005/Table_Rank 2023-01-10 Table_BaseData 71.51 12/168.00/68.33 451 280%62.19 322 201 Table_Chart 300 Table_Author S0010522080002 S0010520020001 S0010121050049 S0010121090014 Table_CompanyReport-63%-47%-31%-16%0%16%31%1/22 4/22 7/22 10/22 300Table_CompanyRptType 688005 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2/30 证券研究报告 2022-2024 332.41 588.19 650.35 13.33 25.32 33.46 46.4%89.8%32.2%2023 2022 6 2023 2024 2022-2024 PE 24.18X 12.74X 9.64X Table_Profit:2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 10259 33241 58819 65035%170.4%224.0%76.9%10.6%911 1333 2532 3346%327.6%46.4%89.8%32.2%15.3%9.0%10.2%11.1%ROE%16.8%20.0%27.5%26.7%2.06 2.96 5.61 7.42 P/E 56.11 24.18 12.74 9.64 P/B 9.54 4.84 3.51 2.57 EV/EBITDA 42.87 16.57 9.28 9.22 wind Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 3/30 1.6 1.1.6 1.2.8 2.11 2.1.11 2.2.14 3.20 3.1.20 3.2.23 3.3.24 4.28 4.1.28 4.3.28 5.28.29 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 4/30 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.8 5.8 6 85%.8 7 85%.8 8%.9 9.9 10 2021.9 11 2022.9 12.10 13.11 14.11 15.12 16.12 17.13 18.14 19.15 20.15 21.15 22 NCM 80.16 23 LIBO2/LIALO2 LIBO2.16 24.17 25 811.17 26 2021-2023.18 27 4680.19 28 4680.19 29.20 30 NCM811.20 31 2021.20 32.21 33.22 34.22 35 811.23 36 811.23 37.23 38.24 39.24 40.25 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 5/30 41 HAPL.26 42.26 43.26 44.27 45().27 46.28 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 6/30 1 1.1 NCM811 NCA Ni90 2014 9 2018 2019 7 22 688005.SH 25 2022 51.17%()28.61%100%100%100%JS 100%100%100%70%68.25%LMFP 1 Wind NCM811 2020 2021 2022 8 54.28 2022 7 68.25%LMFP 2022 9 11000 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 7/30 2 2014 2015 TMR EMT 2017 NCM811 2018 2019 688005.SH 25 2021 40 2021 70%2022 54.28 2022 68.25%LMFP 3 100%100%100%JS 100%100%70%68.25%LMFP Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 8/30 1.2 2021 2021 102.59 170.33%2021 9.11 327.70%2022 Q1-Q3 192.8 208.43%9.18 67.21%2022 Q4 4 5 wind wind 85%90%10%6 85%7 85%wind wind-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3营业收入（亿元）YoY-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%0123456789102017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3归母净利润（亿元）YoY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1正极材料 前驱体 其他业务-10%10%30%50%70%90%110%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1正极材料 前驱体 其他业务Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 9/30 2021 15.51%2022 H1 2022 Q1-Q3 3.82%8%9 Wind Wind NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 NCA 2021 5.3 8 9 NCA 5 14%LG 10 2021 11 2022 15.7418.2115.5212.815.5112.5510.976.284.96-0.073.45-8.91-15-10-5051015202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1正极材料 前驱体-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3销售费用 研发费用 管理费用 财务费用 总费用率14%12%12%9%8%45%容 百科 技 当 升科技 天 津巴莫 长 远锂 科 振 华新 材 其他8%7%7%7%6%65%LG 化学 容 百科技 Ecopro 巴 斯夫 住 友金 属 其他Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 10/30 12 NCM523 S7LC CE EV PHEV S700 CE EV S701C PT PHEV EV S740B CE EV NCM622 S76L CE EV S760 CE EV S6503 CE EV NCM811 S800 CE EV S800C CE EV S85E CE EV Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 11/30 S8303 CE EV 2 2.1 2022 1 2022 1-10 528 107.67%4 5 2023 12 31 2 22 1-10 141 4.7%23%2022 10 8.6 26.1%7.4%7.3%2022 650 950 2025 1750 13 14 Wind Wind SNE Research 2021 273GWh 2020 100.7%2022 480GWh 75.82%2025 1163kWh 2021-2025 43.7%2030 2963GWh 2021-2030 30.3%0%50%100%150%200%250%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,0002021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-10销量:新 能源汽车:当月值 辆 销量:新 能源 汽车:当月值:同比%02004006008001000120014001600180020002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E全球混电 全球纯电 总量Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 12/30 15 SNE Research 2021 LFP LFP 16 2021 118 1362734806679071163141716822047243429630%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001000150020002500300035002019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E全 球 动 力电 池装 机量（Gwh）YoYTable_CompanyRptType1 688005 13/30 74 2022 97 31.08%2023 140 17 914.723.734.34274971400%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0204060801001201401602016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E出货量（万吨）YoYTable_CompanyRptType1 688005 14/30 2.2 Li(NiaCobXc)O2 a+b+c=1 X Mn NCM X Al NCA Ni Ni Co Ni Ni Li Co Co Mn Mn Mn 18 LCO(LMO)(LFP)(NCM)(NCA)(mAh/g)140-150 100-120 130-140 150-220 180-220 500-1000 500-1000 2000 1500-2000 1500-2000 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 15/30 19 20 Wind CNKI Li+/Ni2+Li+Ni2+Li+/Ni2+Li+21 4 155165175200-215210050100150200250NCM333 NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 NCA能 量 密 度（mAh/g）Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 16/30-3 22 NCM 80-23 LiBO2/LiAlO2 LiBO2 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 17/30 24 Ni Mn Li+25 811 2021 4 80 43 50%Model Y 4680 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 18/30 26 2021-2023 4680 4680 4680 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 19/30 27 4680 28 4680 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 20/30 3 3.1 NCM811 NCM811 SMM 2021 NCM811 35%35.9%2022 9 11000 29 30 NCM811 SMM SMM 2021 35,950.26 21,346.16 146.17%210 73.17%22 8 9 5 2 31 2021 CN201910309788.7 CN201811438039.6 CN201711243044.7 CN201711260819.1 CN202010182830.6 KR10-2019-0159725 2%45%17%35%1%NCM 333 NCM 523 NCM 622 NCM 811 NCA35.90%64.10%容 百科 技 其他Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 21/30 KR10-2019-0159727 2021 32 Ni90 1800 Ni90 Ni90 1656 NCM811 6%8%Ni96 1000 NCMA 2970 NCMA 6 2345 Co 6 NCA 3748 NCA 875 NCM811 30%2000 918 1123 LiFePO4 LiFePO4 1020%1629 1mS/cm 3C EV 8 2724 8 NCM 10%Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 22/30 NCM 90 911 NCM 411 3454.27 NCM811 1500 10%1500 40%15%NCA 2873 NCA NCA 8 2724 8 NCM 10%2021 18.29/2022 H1 29.54/33 34 SMM 2022 H2 811 622 811 811 1015202530352018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1容百科技 厦钨新能 当升科技 振华科技 长远锂科05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1容百科技 厦钨新能 当升科技 振华科技 长远锂科Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 23/30 35 811 36 811 Wind Wind 3.2 2023 2022 23 2030 67 2015 8 2021 10/10 2022 8 2020 10 2 2022 8 5000 2022 2022 3 40 10 2023 6 10 2025 20 2030 37 22 1-5 2021 10 10 1 2019 1.5 1.5 2 2022 6 6 2.5 0.5 1 2022 2 2 2 2025 5 0 1 2023 7 10 3 2 2025 10 0 3 2030 20 0 67 23 101520253035402021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-11622 正 极 材料 金属 成本 万元/吨 811 正 极 材料 金属 成本 万元/吨0246810122021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-11622 正 极 价差 万元/吨 811 正 极 价差 万元/吨Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 24/30 6 2022 EMT 2022 9.6 38 2022-1.5 1.5-1 1 2022 6 6 EMT-0.6 0.6 9.1 9.6 39 3.3 2022 1 2022 10 2023 2025 10201 14252 22505 28579 53023 950002000003000009994 12972 9657 5685 19501 3000086000960000200004000060000800001000001200000500001000001500002000002500003000003500002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E三元正极 三元前驱体（右轴）Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 25/30 40 2022 10 2023 2025 1 2022 2 8%5 4000 5 15 2 3 3/2022 6 4.3/2 2022 11 5000 2022 11 2026 12 MHP MHP 20%20%Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 26/30 41 HAPL 42 1 2021 11 2022 1 1 2025 12 31 18 41.5 2026 2030 2 2022 2 2030 12 31 2022 2026 30 43 2022 1 1 2025 12 31 18 2022 2026 30 TMR 1 18%26%1 TMR JS TMR 50%TMR Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 27/30 70%44 45()Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 28/30 4 4.1 1 2022 H1 3.5 2022 H2 9.5 2022 23 2023 30 2022 9.5 2023 20 2024 25 2 2022 6 9.6 2022 3.1 2023 8.6 2024 9.6 3 2022 2022 2022 8.72%2023 2023 10.20%2024 11.08%46 Wind 4.3 2022-2024 332.41 588.19 650.35 13.33 25.32 33.46 46.4%89.8%32.2%2023 2022 6 2023 2024 2022-2024 PE 24.18X 12.74X 9.64X 5 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 29/30 Table_Finace:2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 9252 20839 33094 30811 10259 33241 58819 65035 2585-6578-586-8279 8685 30242 52823 57832 1843 9366 9596 11218 20 100 294 390 46 328 161 411 32 66 235 260 189 907 1358 1531 278 482 1059 1171 1668 7255 8187 8453-24-46 232 57 2921 9560 14378 17477-8-4-4-4 5449 6926 8557 10219 25 0 0 0 32 34 36 38-14 0 0 0 2815 3439 4076 4680 1016 1569 2978 3936 391 445 505 564 1 0 0 0 2211 3008 3940 4936 4 0 0 0 14701 27765 41650 41031 1013 1569 2978 3936 8398 20226 31579 27614 104 235 447 590 502 675 891 1138 908 1333 2532 3346 2500 8490 10823 10268-3 0 0 0 5397 11060 19865 16207 911 1333 2532 3346 870 870 870 870 EBITDA 1177 2428 3715 4602 643 643 643 643 EPS 2.06 2.96 5.61 7.42 228 228 228 228 9268 21096 32449 28484 4 4 4 4 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 448 451 451 451 3746 3737 3737 3737 170.4%224.0%76.9%10.6%1235 2477 5008 8354 301.1%54.4%89.8%32.2%5429 6665 9197 12543 327.6%46.4%89.8%32.2%14701 27765 41650 41031%15.3%9.0%10.2%11.1%:%8.9%4.0%4.3%5.1%2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE%16.8%20.0%27.5%26.7%-192-7326 7947-5631 ROIC%13.3%21.4%25.3%23.6%908 1333 2532 3346 188 392 484 586%63.0%76.0%77.9%69.4%13 31 35 40%170.6%316.3%352.7%227.0%-16 0 0 0 1.10 1.03 1.05 1.12-1206-9346 4876-9624 0.88 0.62 0.74 0.75 2035 10943-2324 12992-1755-1883-2134-2270 0.98 1.57 1.69 1.57-1903-1881-2133-2268 7.97 5.80 6.12 6.25-20-2-2-2 5.49 5.50 5.47 5.48 167 0 0 0 1897 45 180 208 2.06 2.96 5.61 7.42 494 174 215 248-0.43-16.25 17.62-12.49 634 0 0 0 12.12 14.78 20.40 27.82 5 3 0 0 214-8 0 0 P/E 56.11 24.18 12.74 9.64 550-123-35-40 P/B 9.54 4.84 3.51 2.57-62-9163 5992-7693 EV/EBITDA 42.87 16.57 9.28 9.22 Table_CompanyRptType1 688005 30/30 Table_Reputation Table_RankIntroduction 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%
