深度报告-20230219-东方证券-蓝特光学-688127.SH-国内领先光学厂商_多品类布局成长赛道_29页_1mb.pdf
688127.SH|AMS 2020 3500 2.7%2024 1 25 135 19-25 CAGR 65%25 80 VR/AR 5 AR 2022-2024 0.25 0.53 0.87 24 28 24.59 2020 A 2021 A 2022E 2023E 2024E()439 415 402 817 1,215(%)31.4%-5.3%-3.1%103.0%48.7%()212 159 113 242 397(%)57.6%-25.0%-29.4%115.4%63.7%()183 140 99 213 349(%)57.6%-23.5%-29.3%115.6%63.7%0.45 0.35 0.25 0.53 0.87(%)57.7%50.1%41.5%42.7%43.4%(%)41.7%33.7%24.6%26.1%28.7%(%)18.0%9.8%6.6%13.3%19.1%43.3 56.6 80.1 37.1 22.7 5.7 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.0.2023 02 17 19.66 24.59 52/27.99/11.55/A 40,285/17,103 A 7,920/2023 02 19 1 1 3 12-2.93 6.82 5.79 13.91-1.18 9.3 0.14 26.76 300-1.75-2.48 5.65-12.85 021-63325888*8514 S0860514050005 BPT856 S0860522090002 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.8 2.10 2.1.10 2.2.12 3.13 3.1.13 3.2.16 3.3.18 4.19 4.1 VR/AR.19 4.2.22.24.24.25.25 3 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.7 5 2022 9 30.7 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.11 14 2015-2021.11 15.12 16.13 17.13 18 2017-2025E.14 19 MEMS.14 20.14 21.15 22.15 23.15 24.16 25.16 26.16 27.17 28.17 29.17 30.17 31.18 32 4.18 33.18 34 2021-2026 AR.19 4 35.20 36.21 37 2020-2027.21 38.21 39 AR.22 40 2017-2022H1.22 41.22 42.23 1.10 2.11 3 2022.12 4.12 5.19 6.20 7.25 8.26 5 1.1.1 1995 1 2 6 AMS 3 7 4/37.41%0.90%38.31%25 5 2022 9 30 8 Wind 1.2 21 4.2 5.3%1.4 23.5%21 22%2.3 74%1 22 3.0 6%0.6 41%23 6 7 17 iPhone X 80%2021 22H1 0.9 23%20 67%45%3 2021 22H1 74%49%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0501001502002503003504004505002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0204060801001201401601802002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3 9 8 9 22H1 40%22 49%16%10 2022 13 8 4 10 11 Wind Wind 12 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3 10 20 2 AR AR 1 2.68 15%2023 9/2.09 95%2023 6 2.94 0.78 101%/5.55/2.94*2022.6.30 2022.11.30 2.2.1 21-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%010203040502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3 11 Cfan 2 2020 3500 2.7%2024 1 13 14 2015-2021 IDC counterpoint 0%2%4%6%8%10%024681012142019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.1 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 12*=/IDC 3 2022 Galaxy S22 Ultra 9699 2022 2 10 100 Magic4 3999 2022 2 5 50 Magic4 Pro 5499 2022 2 3.5 100 Z40 Pro 3399 2022 2 9-P50E 4088 2022 3 5 50 vivo X80 Pro/X Note/X Fold 5499/5999/8999 2022 4 5 60 Axon 40 Ultra 4998 2022 5 5.7 40 Xperia 1 IV 8499 2022 7 3.5-8-iQOO 10 Pro 4999 2022 7 5 40 12S Ultra 5999 2022 7 5 120 Mate 50 4999 2022 9 5 50 Mate 50 pro 6799 2022 9 3.5 100 2.2 0.01mm 1 0.04 15 4 0.3-420mm 10-200mm/0.01mm 0.05mm 0.05mm 0.05mm 0.02mm 1 10 3 3 5 PV 0.04 0.1 0.1/0.1 13 21 22 23 17 AMS iPhone X 1 2 AMS 16 Patently Apple USPTO 3.3.1 3D“”3D L3-L5 17 14 Robotaxi Robotruck 2025 60 25 135 19-25 CAGR 65%25 80 18 2017-2025E 19 MEMS 20 0204060801001201401602017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 15 3D MEMS MEMS MEMS MEMS FLASH 21 CIRCUITS 22 23 16 Edmund 3.2 80%CMOS/CCD ISP 6 24 25 26 17 特点 塑料 玻璃 玻塑 工艺难度 低 高 高 量产能力 高 低 低 成本 低 高 高 耐热性 低 高 两者之间 透光率 92%99%两者之间 应用领域 手机 单反、车 载镜头、扫描 仪 高端手机、车载 镜头、安防 主要厂商 大立光、舜宇、玉晶光 等 佳能、尼 康、蔡 司、舜 宇等 联创电子、舜宇、瑞声 科技等 2-4 2-4 18 20 L3 5 7 27 28+8 3 1 2 2 1 9 ET5/ET7/ES7 800 7 4 3 300 4 12+P5 13 4 9 13 G9 11 4 7 11 L9 6 800 4 2 5 200 4 1 11 001 12 7 800 4 1 2 1 15 009 12 7 800 4 1 1 1 14 S HI 13 9 ADAS 4 4 4 4 1 1 14 8M ADAS 2-3 29 30 18 3.3 4 31 32 4 Edmund 2012 2014 2017 2018“”33 19 Know-How PV 0.2 m 3 m Ra 6nm Sony 5 Meopta 1.5-120mm 10-200mm 10-250mm-0.003mm 0.015mm-0.01mm 0.004mm-0.05mm 0.01mm 40 40 40 60 PV 0.2m 0.3m-1m MIL20-10 MIL20-10 MIL20-10 MIL60-40 4.4.1 VR/AR VR/AR IDC 2021 AR/VR 1123 92.1%AR 28(AR)(VR)AR VR AR AR Meta IDC 2021-2026E 5 66%2026 AR 353 34 2021-2026 AR 20 IDC AR AR 40%-50%Birdbath AR AR Yole AR 2021 38%2027 99%35 6 Birdba th 10mm 10mm 8mm 2mm 2mm 15 30 30-50 40-55 40-50 50%50%90%80%10%-20%30%-50%10%-15%15%0.3%-1%LCoS LCoS/Micro-OLED Micro-OLED LCoS/Micro-OLED/Micro-LED DLP/Micro-OLED-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E AR YoY 21 Google Glass Epson LUMUS Microsoft Hololens WaveOptics VR(Surface Relief Grating)(Volumetric Holographic Grating)AR Yole 2022 0.26 2027 17.35 5 CAGR 132%36 37 2020-2027 VR Yole 0.3mm 2.0 12 38 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%-2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 202020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 YoY 22 Plan Optik AG 4-12 24/30 12 0.01mm 0.01mm 0.01mm/2/Ra 0.2nm/0.2nm 0.5nm Rq 0.3nm/0.3nm/TTV 1 m/1 m/20 m/20 m/20 m/30 m/7000/2000/5 m/5 m/10 m 10 m/15 m/AR/VR AMS DigiLens Magic Leap AR AR AR/VR LOGO AR/VR 39 AR 40 2017-2022H1 4.2 4000 41-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01020304050602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22H1 23 42 24 2022-2024 1)22-24 4.0/8.2/12.1 a)22-24 1.5 4.5 7.1 b)22-24 1.6 2.6 4.0 c)AMS DigiLens Magic Leap 22-24 0.5 0.6 0.7 2)22-24 41.5%,42.7%43.4%3)22-24 1.70%,1.16%0.88%22-24 9.21%,6.46%5.48%15.83%,8.40%6.46%2020A 2021A 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 296.2 230.8 152.5 453.4 705.9 33.1%-22.1%-33.9%197.2%55.7%68.0%58.1%46.5%43.9%44.2%56.9 99.1 161.5 263.6 395.9 25 20.2%74.1%62.9%63.3%50.2%18.6%39.6%40.0%42.0%43.0%52.3 43.9 46.1 55.3 66.3 60.0%-16.1%5.0%20.0%20.0%53.9%36.2%36.2%38.0%40.0%33.6 41.7 42.3 44.5 46.7 6.5%24.2%1.6%5.0%5.0%38.5%44.6%35.0%40.0%40.0%438.9 415.5 402.4 816.8 1,214.8 31.4%-5.3%-3.1%103.0%48.7%57.7%50.0%41.5%42.7%43.4%2022-2024 0.25 0.53 0.87 24 28 PE 24.59 7()2023/2/17 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 002036 13.55 0.10 0.30 0.54 0.78 129.29 45.76 25.17 17.42 002273 12.98 0.32 0.42 0.51 0.63 40.82 31.21 25.22 20.60 603297 94.85 2.37 2.37 3.00 4.03 40.08 40.10 31.60 23.54 688007 26.27 0.51 0.26 0.35 0.59 51.46 100.96 75.97 44.28 688167 110.06 0.75 1.41 2.17 3.10 146.12 78.16 50.69 35.48 146.12 100.96 75.97 44.28 40.08 31.21 25.17 17.42 81.55 59.24 41.73 28.26 AR/VR+26 8 2022E 2023E 2024E 99 0.0%216 1.3%354 1.4%99 213 349 99 0.0%210-1.3%344-1.4%2022E 2023E 2024E 100 1.6%216 1.1%353 1.1%99 213 349 97-1.6%211-1.1%345-1.1%1 27 单位:百 万元 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 154 94 240 469 821 439 415 402 817 1,215 98 84 86 166 247 186 207 235 468 687 1 1 1 3 4 4 4 2 4 6 65 99 94 164 241 4 6 7 9 11 648 760 569 150 38 55 77 101 121 145 966 1,039 990 952 1,350 1(1)(12)(14)(26)0 0 0 0 0 4 2 2 13 16 473 497 520 663 691 0(0)0 0 0 22 40 116 268 190 7 29 28 7 2 55 54 52 51 49 20 12 17 20 20 20 40 40 40 40 212 159 113 242 397 570 630 728 1,021 970 0 0 0 0 0 1,536 1,669 1,717 1,973 2,320 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 212 159 112 242 397 43 65 74 147 216 29 18 13 28 45 29 45 45 47 49 183 141 100 215 351 72 110 119 194 265 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 183 140 99 213 349 0 0 0 0 0 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.53 0.87 80 87 87 87 87 80 87 87 87 87 152 197 206 281 352 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E(0)1 2 3 5 402 403 403 403 403 31.4%-5.3%-3.1%103.0%48.7%575 581 581 581 581 57.6%-25.0%-29.4%115.4%63.7%408 488 526 705 979 57.6%-23.5%-29.3%115.6%63.7%0 0 0 0 0 1,384 1,473 1,512 1,692 1,968 57.7%50.1%41.5%42.7%43.4%1,536 1,669 1,717 1,973 2,320 41.7%33.7%24.6%26.1%28.7%ROE 18.0%9.8%6.6%13.3%19.1%ROIC 18.1%9.8%6.0%12.6%18.0%:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 183 141 100 215 351 9.9%11.8%12.0%14.2%15.2%51 56 94 126 164 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1(1)(12)(14)(26)13.38 9.43 8.32 4.90 5.09(7)(29)(28)(7)(2)12.30 8.41 7.41 3.95 4.07(20)18 11(89)(105)26(9)2 13 16 4.8 4.2 4.4 6.0 5.5 234 175 166 242 399 2.3 2.2 2.1 3.2 3.0(45)(95)(192)(420)(113)0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 0 0 0 0(652)(16)220 427 115 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.53 0.87(697)(110)28 7 2 0.58 0.44 0.41 0.60 0.99(64)0 0 0 0 3.44 3.65 3.75 4.19 4.87 555 8 0 0 0(11)(53)(49)(20)(49)43.3 56.6 80.1 37.1 22.7 481(45)(49)(20)(49)5.7 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.0(2)(1)-0-0-0 EV/EBITDA 27.1 33.5 36.8 20.3 13.4 15 19 145 229 352 EV/EBIT 33.6 45.2 71.2 31.5 19.4 28 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
