深度报告-20230216-华创证券-卡倍亿-300863.SZ-深度研究报告_自主汽车线缆龙头的电动智能新曲线_28页_2mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 02 16 300863 125.0 99.60 1986 2021 18.7 83%10.1%2021 2.9 13%15.1%2021 22.7+79%0.86+63%2022 30+ASP a.b.2025 15%+c.500-1000 2022-25 CAGR+46%2023 2022-2025 3 CAGR+46%2022-2025 1.6 2.3 3.4 4.9+83%+47%48%44%2023 PE 30 69 125.0 26%ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()2,268 3,113 4,236 5,486(%)79.4%37.3%36.1%29.5%()86 158 231 342(%)63.2%82.8%46.7%47.7%()1.56 2.84 4.17 6.16()64 35 24 16()8.3 6.9 5.3 4.0 2023 2 14 021-20572543 S0360519070003 021-20572532 S0360522030001()5,553.62()1,872.62()55.31()18.65(%)67.05()13.26 12/108.01/57.11(12)-23%3%28%54%22/02 22/04 22/07 22/09 22/12 23/022022-02-142023-02-14 300 300863 2009 1210 1)2)3)a.b.2025 15%+c.500-1000 1)2022-2025 31.1 42.4 54.9 68.6+37%+36%+30%+25%2)2023 2022-2025 1.6 2.3 3.4 4.9+83%+47%48%44%2022 2025 3 CAGR+46%3)2022-2025 CAGR+46%2023 30 PE 69 125.0 26%300863 2009 1210 3.6.10.10 1.14 2.15 3.17.19 22-25 CAGR+46%.22.24 300863 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.8 5 2021.8 6.8 7.8 8 ROE.9 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.10 13.10 14.11 15.12 16.12 17 vs%.13 18 vs%.13 19 vs.14 20 vs.14 21 ROIC vs.14 22 vs.14 23 IPO.15 24.16 25.16 26.16 27.17 28%.17 29.17 30.19 31.20 32%.20 33%.20 300863 2009 1210 5 34/KM.21 35 2022-2025.22 36 vs.23 300863 2009 1210 6 1986 1993 2003 2004 KBE 2007 2020 1 1986 1993 2003 2022 2004 KBE 2007 KBE 2010 2013 2016 2017 2020 2021 2022 2022 3.74%0.80%0.69%52.31%2 WIND 3Q22 300863 2009 1210 7 2021 18.7 83%10.1%2.9 13%15.1%1)PVC PVC 2)3 PVC PVC PP XLPE CAN-BUS GPS USB 300863 2009 1210 8 4 5 2021 2017-2020 9-13 2021 5.7 5.0 4.2+78%+89%+66%+2021 2021 22.7+79%2022 30 2020 14%-15%80%3Q20-2021 2021 10.9%/-0.1PP 6.3%/-0.5PP 0.86+63%3.8%/-0.4PP 6 7 Wind Wind 30%24%17%6%5%4%3%11%22.7 20.6 79%31%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%-50510152025%0.86 1.01 63%40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%-1012342016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22%300863 2009 1210 9 8 ROE 9 Wind Wind 10 11 Wind Wind 3.8%4.9%10.9%12.5%14.1%14.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22 ROE0.9%0.7%1.6%1.6%1.5%1.3%2.3%2.5%0%1%2%3%4%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22 2.5 0.8 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q224.4 1.8 0.01.02.03.04.05.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22 300863 2009 1210 10 75%-80%12 13 300863 2009 1210 11 TE TE TE/14 30%70%300863 2009 1210 12 15 2002/10/29-2001/4/19 2001/3/14 2002/2/4 2001/7/20 2004/7/8 2004/12/2-()2018/2/2 Wind 16 KM 300+500+IPO/29.21-ISO-Wind 300863 2009 1210 13 10-15%5%15-20%5-10%17 vs%18 vs%Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-5%0%5%10%15%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 300863 2009 1210 14 1 19 vs 20 vs Wind Wind ROIC ROIC 21 ROIC vs 22 vs Wind Wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 051015202016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 300863 2009 1210 15 IPO IPO+IPO 2.16 2.79 IPO 12.32 5.25 0.5/1/11 23 IPO 2021 12 1.24 1.3/0.62 KM FLRY 2.0 KM CoaxialDataCable 1.0 KM 5.0 KM 4.8/1.0 KM USB LVDS HDMI 2.7 KM 24 1.55 3.7/0.25 KM 1.0/1.5 KM)XLPO 0.8/3.5 KM 24 2020 8 IPO 2.16 24-12 2022 8 2 4mm2 4mm2 300863 2009 1210 16 24 25 2025 15%+2.5KM 0.5-0.8/1000-2000 20-30 20-30/1500-3000 2022 275 2025 444 2022 11%2025 15%26 2020 2021 2022E 2025E 1893 1815 1701 1500 800 900 1000 1200 151 163 170 180 120 332 653 1200 1300 1450 1600 2200-800 900 1000 1200-500 550 600 1000 15.6 48.2 104.5 264 167.1 211.5 274.6 444 300863 2009 1210 17 27 28%3 PVC 0.13 160-65 250 29 60V 01002003004005002020 2021 2022E 2025E 13.5%19.8%15.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%2020 2021 2022E 2025E+300863 2009 1210 18 60V 125 125 300863 2009 1210 19 500-1000 600V 1,000V 30 3 300863 2009 1210 20 31 10-15%15-25%15%32%33%2017 2020 IPO 2021 13%15%0%20%40%60%80%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1H22 15.1%18.5%10.1%9.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1H22 300863 2009 1210 21 Radio GPS E-Call Car2X USB LVDS HDMI FLRY 34/KM 4.31.10.830.180.120.07 0.04012345 300863 2009 1210 22 22-25 CAGR+46%2022-2025 31.1 42.4 54.9 68.6+37%+36%+30%+25%1)1000-2000 2022-2025 25.2 31.2 37.4 43.6+34%+24%+20%+17%81%74%68%64%2)500-1000 2022-2025 4.8 10.0 16.2 23.7+68%+108%+62%+46%15%24%30%35%2023 2022-2025 1.6 2.3 3.4 4.9+83%+47%48%44%2022 2025 3 CAGR+46%1)2022-2025 12.2%12.4%12.7%13.1%2)2022-2025 6.1%5.9%5.3%4.7%2022-2025 5.1%5.5%6.2%7.2%35 2022-2025 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 12.6 22.7 31.1 42.4 54.9 68.6 YoY 79.4%37.3%36.1%29.5%25.1%10.9 18.7 25.2 31.2 37.4 43.6 1 1.2 3.5 6.0 8.0 2 1.0 2.2 3.5 4.6 5.9 7.7 3 2.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 4 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 7.3 11.4 13.9 15.1 16.0 16.9 YoY 57.1%21.8%8.0%6.3%5.6%1.3 2.9 4.8 10.0 16.2 23.7 1 1.5 3.0 5.0 2 1.2 1.7 3.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 3 0.5 2.0 4.0 4 0.5 2.0 4.0 300863 2009 1210 23 0.1 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.7 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3%11.0%10.9%12.2%12.4%12.7%13.1%9.5%10.1%11.0%10.5%10.0%10.0%23.8%15.1%18.0%18.5%19.0%19.0%10.1%13.9%15.0%12.0%10.0%10.0%1.0%0.9%0.6%0.7%0.5%0.4%1.9%1.6%1.6%1.7%1.6%1.5%2.6%2.3%2.6%2.4%2.0%1.7%1.4%1.5%1.3%1.2%1.1%1.0%6.8%6.3%6.1%5.9%5.3%4.7%0.53 0.86 1.58 2.31 3.42 4.94 YoY 63.2%82.8%46.7%47.7%44.4%4.2%3.8%5.1%5.5%6.2%7.2%Wind 2022-2025 CAGR+46%2023 30 PE 69 125.0 26%36 vs%PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E 103.8 0.0 0.7 2.5-259.9%-149.6 41.6 58.3 1.2 2.7 3.5 125.4%28.3%48.3 21.4 16.7 132.0 1.1 2.7 4.1 134.6%51.8%115.9 49.4 332.5 364.6 14.4 20.8 27.4 44.8%32.0%25.4 17.5 13.3 164.7 4.2 6.7 9.4 61.0%39.5%63.2 59.5 26.0 55.3 0.9 1.6 2.3 82.8%46.7%64.1 35.0 23.9 Wind 2023 2 14 2022 2023 Wind 300863 2009 1210 24 PVC 80%300863 2009 1210 25 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 422 285 440 530 2,268 3,113 4,236 5,486 31 42 58 75 2,020 2,733 3,709 4,792 714 976 1,247 1,459 5 6 8 11 4 5 7 10 20 20 30 30 331 408 553 715 35 50 70 90 0 0 0 0 53 80 100 110 71 77 105 123 35 40 50 60 1,573 1,793 2,410 2,912-14-10-10-10 38 38 38 38-2 0-1-1 0 0 0 0-3-10-5-5 356 420 525 617 14 10 7 7 99 149 199 249 1 2 1 1 42 43 45 46 95 177 260 386 44 46 48 49 1 2 3 2 579 696 855 999 0 0 0 0 2,152 2,489 3,265 3,911 96 179 263 388 978 1,028 1,328 1,478 10 21 32 46 100 109 148 192 86 158 231 342 91 123 167 216 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 86 158 231 342 5 7 9 12 NOPLAT 118 193 276 395 1 1 1 1 EPS()1.56 2.84 4.17 6.16 0 0 0 0 30 31 39 46 1,206 1,300 1,694 1,947 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 12 112 262 312 254 254 254 254 79.4%37.3%36.1%29.5%17 18 18 19 EBIT 64.6%67.0%42.6%43.2%283 384 534 585 63.2%82.8%46.7%47.7%1,489 1,684 2,228 2,532 663 805 1,037 1,379 10.9%12.2%12.4%12.7%0 0 0 0 3.8%5.1%5.5%6.2%663 805 1,037 1,379 ROE 13.0%19.6%22.3%24.8%2,152 2,489 3,265 3,911 ROIC 7.0%10.1%10.9%13.2%69.2%67.6%68.2%64.7%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 190.3%175.3%179.6%149.6%-252-88-46 146 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 147 235 327 462 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1-147-77-146-162-277-275-288-230 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 108 42 83 93 94 98 94 89-82-14-23-16 15 14 14 14-234-141-206-204 46 49 47 48-236-152-202-202()0 0 0 0 1.56 2.84 4.17 6.16 2 11-4-2-4.54-1.58-0.83 2.63 792 92 407 148 11.94 14.50 18.67 24.83 741 150 450 200-50-40-50-60 P/E 64 35 24 16 276 0 0 0 P/B 8 7 5 4-175-18 7 8 EV/EBITDA 21 13 9 6 300863 2009 1210 26 2019 2020 2021 2022 300863 2009 1210 27 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 300863 2009 1210 28(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
