深度报告-20221230-国金证券-华厦眼科-301267.SZ-专家领航_科研领跑_立足八闽_辐射全国_21页_2mb.pdf
-1-73.14 85.00()()5.60 A()0.56()409.58()73.15/56.46 300 3857 2349 SAC S1130518080002(8621)60230221 yuan_wei SAC S1130522060002 xuyuhan()2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E()2,515 3,064 3,377 4,116 5,064 2.37%21.86%10.19%21.90%23.02%()334 455 521 680 868 53.59%36.01%14.63%30.41%27.68%()0.669 0.910 0.931 1.214 1.551 0.89 1.31 0.71 1.38 1.63 ROE()()23.57%24.83%22.12%22.89%23.02%P/E N.A.N.A.77.11 59.13 46.31 P/B N.A.N.A.17.06 13.54 10.66 2004 57 17 46 2021 891 2021 37%2022 3.98+18.13%22-24 5.21 6.80 8.68 22-24 15%30%28%23 70 PE 85/05001000150020002500300056.4661.3566.2471.13221107221110221113221116221119221122221125221128221201221204221207221210221213221216221219221222221225221228人民币(元)成交金额(百万元)成交金额 华厦眼科 沪深300 2022 年 12 月 30 日 医疗组 华厦眼科(301267.SZ)买入（首次评 级）-2-+.3.4.8.8.10.13.14.18 1 2015-2025E.3 2 2015-2019%.3 3 2020%.4 4.4 5.5 6.5 7 2017-2022Q3.6 8 2017-2022Q3.6 9 2019-2021%.6 10 2019-2021.7 11 2019-2022H1%.7 12 2017-2022Q3.8 13 2017-2022Q3.8 14.8 15 2009-2021.9 16 2019-2021.10 17.10 18 2022H1.11 19.12 20 2022H1.13 21 2019-2021%.14 22%.14 23%.16 24.17 25.17-3-+2015 507.1 2019 1037.4 19.6%2015 2019 189.3 401.6 20.7%1 2015-2025E 2015 19.4%12.0%14.7%2019 27.5%14.8%17.4%3-5 2019 23.7%25.8%2 2015-2019%10%14%18%22%26%30%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-4-2015 98.4 2019 127.9 6.8%2020 52.7%35.60%,71.1%80.50%2018 2023 2018 0.5 1 3 2020%2004 4 2004 2006 2010 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%-5-57 17 46 2021 167.14 29.28 20 5 2022 12 26 30.41%25.58%6 19.12%6 2022 3 10 8 20 PI 3 192 SCI 66-6-2017 2021 15.97 30.64 17.69%2020 2021 4.55+36.01%2017 2021 55.70%2022 25.23+10.15%3.98+18.13%7 2017-2022Q3 8 2017-2022Q3 2019 2021 2021 26.26+19.98%2021 3.60 9.18%12.01%2021 21.93 2021 42.94%33.68%9 2019-2021%15.97 21.46 24.56 25.15 30.64 25.23 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%051015202530352017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 0.77 1.64 2.18 3.34 4.55 3.98 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 2021-7-10 2019-2021 2021 9.58 36.47%7.56 28.80%3.40 12.96%2019-2021 25.93%27.16%11 2019-2022H1%2017-2019 40%2019 2017-2021 2021 14.80%2017 17.66%2021 10.35%2022 2022Q3 11.93%30.80%27.76%24.17%0%10%20%30%40%020,00040,00060,00080,0002019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019202020212022H1-8-12 2017-2022Q3 13 2017-2022Q3 14 AOI(973),985 315 SCI 116 5 RETINA 2007 2008 2009 2011 AOI(APAO)ICO 430 SCI 60 2016 2018 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3-9-973 330 SCI 140 2015(4)863 973 NSFC-RGC 50 326 266 SCI 98 39 3 6 2022 10 LCA2 GDNF Survivin/CRM1 2009 2021 224 83 15 2009-2021 2021 56 891 300 33.67%051015202530352009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-10-16 2019-2021 36 28 17 17 46 0501001502002503002019 2020 2021 0123456-11-18 2022H1 35 7 5 1 7 2-16 4 2 1-100 126 64 55 79 33 65 32 24 41 9 9 5 21 1-1 2 2-29-1-2-52-3 3 1 4 5 4 3 2-1-6-11-5-19-2-4 1 1-3-*2021 35-12-19 2019 2020 2021 2022 H1 2004 23,539.9 23,907.0 21,764.5 10,401.6 2007-532.5 286.1 908.5 290.1 2012 921.9 1,304.6 1,416.2 686.5 2015-59.8 1.0 74.0 120.8 2016-227.9 251.9 235.2 180.9 2016-539.5-281.7 187.7 29.1 2016-140.2 26.5 192.2 6.6 2016-543.1-868.0 19.3 526.2 2017-32.4 165.9 494.2 235.3 2020-175.5-110.3 2021-8.8 32.4 2002 75.4 20.5 706.3-456.0 2003 548.1 390.2 530.7 405.6 2009-201.1-184.9 27.5 18.1 2013 145.8 80.8 57.6-47.4 2014 270.1 579.8 746.8 452.4 2014 367.1 772.0 928.4 424.8 2014 232.0 29.1 395.6 232.4 2015-654.4-413.5-213.9 30.8 2015-706.7-658.1-549.1-97.4 2015 74.8 1.3 69.7 171.4 2016-948.9 5,398.8 2,991.9 259.7 2016-58.8 331.5 48.8 159.9 2016-283.2-773.0-173.9 170.0 2016-255.4-258.3 23.3-10.1 2016-1,572.0-1,173.5-1,050.2-467.7 2017-1,433.6-1,109.9-880.0-744.0 2017-447.2 1.8-32.1-218.8 2017 154.1 183.5-11.9 55.8 2018 194.8 648.2 93.9 126.7 2018-558.6-473.9-580.2-329.6 2019-141.3-695.2-717.3-432.3 2019-122.8-678.6-453.7-374.7 2019-172.1 220.5 2021-5.2 4.5 2015 132.2 346.3 364.9 530.0 2015-861.1-582.1 3,913.6 1,900.4 2015-753.3-355.5 31.0-111.1 2016-249.4-140.1 228.2 312.5 2017 88.5-177.1 53.9 109.9 2018-230.5 20.3 171.4 174.1 2006-209.9 199.5 308.7 203.5 2014-796.7-388.8-567.3-182.9 2015 901.0 1,585.6 2,462.2 1,251.0 2015-930.1-689.5-799.3-215.4 2016-1,005.6-576.3-652.2 781.7 2020-0.1-101.4 180.2-13-2019 2020 2021 2022 H1 2020-1.1-20.8 2016-1,406.8-892.5-1,203.5-78.1 2016-1,663.5 169.5 6,305.9 4,201.0 2006-124.2 203.4 46.8 83.4 2013 144.1 218.5 722.4 435.6 2014-810.4 6.6 686.1 434.8 2016-1,088.8 2,099.1 2,093.9 1,053.4 2017-193.3-124.9-609.2-67.3 2017-386.3-393.0-515.2-44.1 2018-586,1-464.0-585.3-69.9 2019-2021 13.51 14.51 2021 31.25%11.78%43.03%2021 3.61 36.49%20 2022H1 ICL 2021 70,439 38%42%12%22%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%-14-2021 9790.3/34.76%21 2019-2021%2021 7110 2020 13%22%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%010000200003000040000500006000070000800002019 2020 2021 61,703 57,918 67,089 39,397 31,740 26,506 61.03%64.60%71.68%38.97%35.40%28.32%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0002019 2020 2021-15-2018-2019 2022-2024 9%/21%/22%2022-2024 54.2%/54.9%/55.9%2022-2024 35.8%/36.2%/36.3%2022-2024 20%/31%/33%2022-2024 57.1%/57.6%/58.6%2022-2024 3%/5%/6%15%/12%/12%2022-2024 33.77 41.16 50.64 10.2%21.9%23.0%-16-23%wind-17-2022 11%1.4%24 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 14.3%12.0%12.3%12.4%12.5%13.8%11.7%10.6%11.2%11.3%0.8%0.8%1.0%1.3%1.4%wind 22-24 5.21 6.80 8.68 22-24 15%30%28%2022 2024 71 54 39 23 70 PE 85/25 EPS PE 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 300015.SZ 30.61 0.42 0.43 0.39 0.51 0.66 179.06 98.38 71.79 54.27 42.30 301239.SZ 70.18 0.97 0.84 0.69 0.91 1.35-101.62 77.02 51.98 301103.SZ 29.89 1.10 0.95 0.68 0.89 1.15-39.24 30.24 23.28 179.06 98.38 70.88 53.84 39.19 301267.SZ 71.80 0.67 0.91 0.96 1.20 1.53-71.48 57.04 44.98 Wind 2022 12 30 wind 1 80 6091 2 2000 OCT 3 1 2 10 VisuMax“PACS LIS-18-18 2021 23 5 11 0.65%28.43%-19-2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2,456 2,515 3,064 3,377 4,116 5,064 351 503 953 604 805 1,089 14.5%2.4%21.9%10.2%21.9%23.0%204 176 212 238 290 354-1,468-1,454-1,654-1,793-2,140-2,577 87 107 126 136 164 198%59.8%57.8%54.0%53.1%52.0%50.9%47 51 47 116 149 215 988 1,060 1,411 1,584 1,976 2,486 688 838 1,338 1,094 1,407 1,856%40.2%42.2%46.0%46.9%48.0%49.1%32.6%38.7%41.6%29.4%31.9%34.5%-10-10-12-14-17-20 64 120 166 180 182 183%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%889 783 757 875 1,055 1,285-351-301-402-417-508-630%42.0%36.2%23.5%23.5%23.9%23.9%14.3%12.0%13.1%12.3%12.4%12.5%340 300 268 309 307 314-339-294-317-357-461-572 1,426 1,324 1,882 2,625 3,003 3,525%13.8%11.7%10.4%10.6%11.2%11.3%67.4%61.3%58.4%70.6%68.1%65.5%-19-20-25-35-55-73 2,114 2,162 3,220 3,719 4,410 5,380%0.8%0.8%0.8%1.0%1.3%1.4%60 0 113 100 53 23 EBIT 269 436 654 761 934 1,191 353 335 275 321 393 481%11.0%17.3%21.3%22.6%22.7%23.5%338 333 397 431 524 644-15-9-40-18-15-7 751 669 785 852 970 1,148%0.6%0.4%1.3%0.5%0.4%0.1%207 0 0 0 0 0-3-5-7 0 0 0 35 42 586 469 417 393 0 0 0 0 0 0 992 710 1,371 1,321 1,387 1,541 26 2 9 14 11 10 1,085 1,419 1,832 2,357 2,970 3,771%9.1%0.5%1.5%1.9%1.2%0.9%500 500 500 560 560 560 316 484 652 777 950 1,215 275 593 1,042 1,508 2,120 2,922 12.9%19.3%21.3%23.0%23.1%24.0%37 32 17 40 53 67-33-25-69-52-41-41 2,114 2,162 3,220 3,719 4,410 5,380 283 460 582 725 910 1,174 11.5%18.3%19.0%21.5%22.1%23.2%-101-138-129-180-217-291 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 35.6%30.1%22.1%24.9%23.8%24.8%182 321 454 544 693 883 0.436 0.669 0.910 0.931 1.214 1.551-35-13-1 23 13 15 2.169 2.839 3.664 4.210 5.304 6.735 218 334 455 521 680 868 0.603 0.888 1.306 0.713 1.377 1.628 8.9%13.3%14.8%15.4%16.5%17.1%0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.120 0.120 20.08%23.57%24.83%22.12%22.89%23.02%2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 10.30%15.47%14.13%14.02%15.42%16.14%182 321 454 544 693 883 12.41%20.78%25.71%22.70%22.98%23.07%-35-13-1 23 13 15 81 76 178 52 54 56 14.46%2.37%21.86%10.19%21.90%23.02%-26 32 34-189-40-95 EBIT 17.11%61.79%49.94%16.50%22.71%27.46%64 14-13-8 63 67 32.59%53.59%36.01%14.63%30.41%27.68%301 444 653 399 771 912 0.92%2.28%48.94%15.48%18.60%22.00%-251-161-172-505-290-368-2-3-2-28-13-25 26.2 23.8 20.3 22.1 22.3 22.0 3-1 6 8 11 10 21.6 24.3 25.7 27.7 27.9 28.1-250-165-168-526-293-383 65.9 66.6 51.2 49.5 50.3 51.2 33 12 1 60 0 0 130.3 113.6 90.0 92.7 89.0 86.8 38-266 0-36-48-30-268-14-182-91-96-94/-7.52%-34.68%-45.46%-21.01%-24.88%-27.76%-198-268-181-66-144-123 EBIT 18.0 49.3 16.2 41.4 63.6 168.4-147 11 305-192 334 405 46.93%32.86%42.58%35.53%31.45%28.65%-20-0 3 4 4 4 1 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.00 1.40 1.43 1.43 1.00 1 2 3 4 1.00=1.012.0=2.013.0=3.014.0=6 12 15%6 12 5%15%6 12-5%5%6 12 5%-21-C3(C3 021-60753903 021-61038200 201204 1088 7 010-66216979 010-66216793 100053 3 4 0755-83831378 0755-83830558 518000 1-1 T3-2402
