-1-122.00 137.00()()1.12 A()0.28()136.41()129.88/31.22 300 3872 11016 SA C S1130520020003 luolu SA C S1130522060001 yangchen T/R()2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E()175 211 295 417 605 31.97%20.60%39.72%41.54%45.06%()45 160 187 256 340-31.74%251.71%16.73%36.86%33.18%()0.542 1.908 1.670 2.286 3.044-0.10 0.26-1.44 1.05 1.33 ROE()()8.47%22.94%13.47%15.67%17.36%P/E 0.00 0.00 73.05 53.38 40.08 P/B 0.00 0.00 9.84 8.36 6.96 T/R+GaN GaAs T/R CAGR 34.5%70%+22 15.3%19-21 75%5G T/R/T/R 50%T/R 225 5G+5G 5G T/R IPO T/R 5G T/R 20 3.7%21 18.7%13 55 IPO 5 4 T/R 100 3 T/R 5G 2022-2024 1.87/2.56/3.40 23 60 PE 154 137/02004006008001000120014001600180022.1739.356.4373.5690.69107.82124.95211231220331220630220930人民币(元)成交金额(百万元)成交金额 铖昌科技 沪深300 2022 年 12 月 31 日 通信组 铖昌科技(001270.SZ)增持（首次评级）-2-T/R.4 1.1 T/R.4 1.2.5.7 2.1.7 2.2 T/R.8 2.3 T/R.9 5G T/R.11 3.1 T/R.11 3.2 5G T/R.13+.15 4.1.15 4.2 T/R.18.19 5.1.19 5.2.20.21 1 T/R.4 2 T/R.4 3.5 4.6 5.6 6 T/R.6 7 20.7 8.7 9.7 10 35%.7 11.8 12 2021 GDP.8 13 C4ISR.8 14(AESA)Vs(PESA).9 15 2010-2019.9 16 50%.9 17 T/R 45%.9 18 2025.10-3-19.10 20“”A N/F P S-115.10 21 2019-2021 T/R 11 22.11 23.12 24 2016-2021.12 25.12 26.12 27 Space X.13 28 1024 256.13 29 ITU.13 30.13 31+.14 32.14 33 5G.14 34 5G.14 35 2019-2026.15 36 5G T/R.15 37 T/R.15 38.16 39.16 40.17 41.17 42.17 43.17 44.18 45.18 46 IPO.19 47 2022-2024.20 48 PE.21-4-T/R 1.1 T/R T/R 2010 11 5G 1 T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R 2 T/R T/R T/R T/R 90%-5-L W 1-110GHz T/R GaAs T/R GaAs GaAs GaAs GaAs GaN T/R GaN GaAs GaAs GaAs GaAs T/R GaAs GaAs T/R 3 1.2 T/R 2018-2021 1 2.1 CAGR 28.3%T/R 18 0.85 21 1.93 CAGR 22.6%22 1.26 52.65%-6-4 5 1 T/R 2 T/R T/R 3 T/R T/R 18-22H1 70.1%/76.6%/74.3%/77%/66.3%T/R 67.5%/76.7%/76.46%/79.07%/66.03%6 T/R wind T/R/ADC/2018-2021 25.21%/19.33%/49.42%/24.85%2020 5182 20 49.42%20 19.79%26.01%0.45 21 5G 4666 19-20 305/1049 21 75.84%1.6 22 47.8%0.6 0.44 36.3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%05000100001500020000250002018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 T/R yoy-30%-10%10%30%50%70%90%110%130%150%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1铖昌科技 臻镭科技 盟升电子 国博电子 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1铖昌科技 臻镭科技 盟升电子 国博电子-7-7 20 8 wind 9 10 35%wind wind T/R 1 T/R 2 T/R 50%T/R 2.1 21 1.36 6.89%GDP 1.7%2.8%3 5 2022 2022 1.45 7.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-3 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2019 2020 2021 22Q1-3 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.82018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%00.20.40.60.811.22018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-3 yoy-8-11 12 2021 GDP SIPRI C4ISR 2025 2513 40%20%13 C4ISR 2.2 T/R AESA AESA PESA AESA/T/R T/R PESA AESA T/R Forecast International 2010-2019 14.16%25.68%5321 6012 6703 7406 8307 9115 9765 10444 11070 11899 12680 13553 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0200040006000800010000120001400016000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021中国国防预算走势(亿元)yoy0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%沙特阿拉伯 俄罗斯 美国 韩国 印度 英国 法国 中国 德国 日本 GDP 2.8%-9-14(AESA)Vs(PESA)15 2010-2019 Forecast International T/R 20%/Research 50%T/R T/R 3 MMICs VLSI Research T/R 45%T/R 60%-80%T/R 15%-18%T/R AESA T/R 16 50%17 T/R 45%Research Research 2.3 T/R Strategic Defense Intelligence 2015-2025 2025 60%18%17%26%39%机扫阵列雷达 无源相控阵雷达 有源相控阵雷达 基本型 50%20%20%10%/45%45%7%3%T/R-10-18 2025 Strategic Defense Intelligence T/R T/R T/R THHAD 25344 T/R CDBRA C 2700 T/R T/R 19 20 AN/FPS-115 T/R 21/T/R 4000 128.6%IPO 5 4 T/R T/R 100 3 36%27%20%17%-11-21 2019-2021 T/R wind 5G T/R 5G T/R T/R 22 3.1 T/R ICT SIA 21 292 25 447 21-25 11%21/17/61 T/R 0500100015002000250030003500400045002019 2020 2021-12-23 24 2016-2021 SIA UCS 5465 SpaceX OneWeb Starlink 66.3%2022 5 541 5 55.3%12.4%22 25 26 UCS 22 5 1 UCS 22 5 1 T/R 2022 12 SpaceX 3500 4 T/R CMOS 4096/4096 2000 T/R T/R 1000 T/R 200 292.48 314.39 356.18 403.68 446.92 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0501001502002503003504004505002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2 2 5 8 7 17 11 20 36 37 34 61 2 2 18 10 2 0 0102030405060702016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 66.3%21.2%2.8%2.0%7.8%通信 遥感 导航 空间科学 其他 12.4%55.3%9.1%4.1%19.2%通信 遥感 导航 空间科学 其他-13-27 Space X 28 1024 256 CMOS 4096/4096 2021 4 12992 GW 12992 GW-A59 590/600/508 480/2000/3600 GW-2 1145 1728 2022 29 ITU 30 GW-2 GW-A59 2020.09.11 2020.09.11 6912 6080 36 36 36 36 16 40 60 48 48 48 48 30 50 60 km 1145 1145 1145 1145 590 600 508 deg 30 40 50 60 85 50 55 L/S/C/X/Ku/Ka/Q L/S/C/X/Ku/Ka/Q 2022.05.24 01 2022.10.18 54 02 2022.10.18 ITU 3.2 5G T/R 5G+11 5G 228.7 86.2 21.1%5G-14-31+32 20MHz 10W 200 500mW-10W 50-200 100mW-500mW 20-50 100mW 10-20 5G 5G 1 Sub-6 GHz 6GHz 2 24GHz Sub-6GHz Massive MIMO Small Cell Forum 2022 2026 Sub-6 GHz GSMA 5G C 33 5G 34 5G FR1 450MHz-6000MHz Sub-6 GHz FR2 24250MHz-52600MHz GSMA intelligence 5G 26 5G T/R 37 26 5G 180 21-26 83%12 5G ABI Research 26 5G 10%5G T/R 32 26 5G T/R 37 5G 5G T/R 87%100%78%96%72%65%100%3.5GHz TCO 5%10%25%-15-35 2019-2026 36 5G T/R ABI Research+4.1 T/R T/R T/R 37 T/R T/R T/R T/R 13 55 13 55-50%0%50%100%150%200%0501001502002503002019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E5G 5G 4G 5G 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%05101520253035402021 2023E 2026E5G T/R 5G-16-38 13(MEMS)1312 55 T/R T/R wind 11 80%2016 8 T/R GaAs 39 15.47%14.12%2021 GaAs 70 7 18 35.71%2022 6-17-15 3 12 46 40 41 Wind 21 94%75.87%A01 T/R 2018-2021 4 5 42 43/2019.06.26 2024.06.25 2020.03.31 2023.04.30 2020.10.26 2025.10.25 2018.04 2023.04 GR20183302015 2018.11.30 7%15%14%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%臻镭科技 雷电微力 盟升电子 铖昌科技 国博电子 2019 2020 2021 2022H110%26%64%博士 硕士 硕士以下学历 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2018 2019 2020 2021 A-A01 B-18-02789731 2017.07.28 3301960C91 2017.08.10 4.2 T/R 18-21 T/R 70%T/R 20 3.7%21 18.7%44 wind D711 T/R D751/D761/45 D711 T/R 01-2016 D751/T/R 01-2013 01-2101 01-2004 D761/T/R 01-2106 IPO 5.1 T/R 4 T/R T/R 100/3 1 T/R 8400 T/R 78.48%T/R 3.73%T/R 4.43%T/R 1.42%T/R 0.77%11.18%2020 T/R 71.90%T/R 18.71%T/R 0.03%T/R 0.23%T/R 0.63%8.50%2021-19-46 IPO T/R 39974.26 36 30000 9406.9 T/R 10936.33 36 8400 2463.65 5.1 22-24 2.95/4.17/6.05 39.72/41.54%/45.06%21 20.5%24 38.6%22-24 74.72%/72.99%/70.85%1 T/R T/R 2019-2021 1.32/1.55/1.93 99.8%/88.8%/91.5%2021 24.23%22-24 T/R 2.76/3.97/5.84 42.95%/44.04%/47.05%2019-2021 T/R 76.68%/76.46%/79.07%22-24 T/R 76.06%/73.89%/71.42%2019-2021 1.28/1.37/1.52 T/R 96.4%/88.36%/78.57%2021 10.48%T/R,19-21 T/R 1030-1160/22-24 22-24 1.95/2.61/3.62 28.65%/33.68%/38.61%21 62%/24%/14%22-24 77.50%/76.57%/75.99%2019-2021 4.76/6.52/39.46 T/R 3.6%/4.19%/20.45%2021 39.46%20 21 1.29 20.83 505 189/21 16 95.9/2022 D02 E01 22-24 0.79/1.34/2.19 98.98%/70.19%/63.89%21 68%/20%/12%T/R GaN 22-24 72.67%/68.29%/63.46%-20-T/R 21 134/49/6 22-24 20%/30%/30%227/296/384 22-24 70%/68%/66%2 22-24 5%0.19/0.20/0.21 55%47 2022-2024 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 132.54 174.91 210.93 294.72 417.16 605.12 Y oY 32.74%31.97%20.60%39.72%41.54%45.06%76.58%74.33%76.99%74.72%72.99%70.85%T/R 132.25 155.36 193.01 275.90 397.40 584.37 Y oY 54.90%17.48%24.23%42.95%44.04%47.05%76.68%76.46%79.07%76.06%73.89%71.42%127.49 137.27 151.65 195.11 260.81 361.52 Y oY 70.63%7.67%10.48%28.65%33.68%38.61%77.85%77.44%79.73%77.50%76.57%75.99%4.76 6.52 39.46 78.52 133.63 219.01 Y oY-34.44%36.94%505.65%98.98%70.19%63.89%45.20%71.23%76.53%72.67%68.29%63.46%11.57 1.90 2.27 2.96 3.84 Y oY-83.62%20.00%30.00%30.00%67.77%79.21%70%68%66%0.29 19.55 17.92 18.82 19.76 20.75 Y oY-97.99%6623.03%-8.30%5.00%5.00%5.00%33.89%57.39%54.64%55.00%55.00%55.00%wind 2022-2024 6%5.5%5%2022-2024 3.5%3.3%3%IPO 2022-2024 12%5.2-21-2022-2024 1.87 2.56 3.40 EPS 1.67 2.29 3.04 T/R 5G 2023 60 PE 154 137/48 PE EPS PE 20A 21A 22E 23E 24E 20A 21A 22E 23E 24E 688270.SH 115.97 0.94 1.21 1.24 1.73 2.34 123.37 95.84 93.52 67.03 49.56 688311.SH 81.22 0.93 1.17 1.50 2.37 3.28 87.33 69.42 54.15 34.27 24.76 688375.SH 95.79 0.86 1.02 1.33 1.83 2.45 111.38 93.91 72.02 52.23 39.07 107.36 86.39 73.23 51.18 37.80 111.38 93.91 72.02 52.23 39.07 001270.SZ 122.00 0.54 1.91 1.67 2.29 3.04 225.93 63.87 73.05 53.28 40.13 wind 2022 12 30 wind 2021 94%2022 IPO 5 485/639-22-2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 133 175 211 295 417 605 30 255 67 446 420 427 32.0%20.6%39.7%41.5%45.1%119 176 284 432 556 726-31-45-49-75-113-176 40 51 79 92 130 193%23.4%25.7%23.0%25.3%27.0%29.1%33 4 203 306 335 368 101 130 162 220 304 429 222 486 633 1,276 1,440 1,714%76.6%74.3%77.0%74.7%73.0%70.9%84.7%82.6%84.4%88.5%84.6%83.4%-2-2-2-3-4-6 0 55 55 55 55 55%1.1%0.9%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%23 26 44 81 176 253-5-10-8-10-14-18%8.9%4.5%5.9%5.6%10.3%12.3%3.6%5.7%4.0%3.5%3.3%3.0%15 13 11 11 11 11-11-49-15-18-23-30 40 102 117 165 263 341%8.7%28.2%6.9%6.0%5.5%5.0%15.3%17.4%15.6%11.5%15.4%16.6%-9-27-30-35-50-73 262 588 751 1,441 1,702 2,054%6.6%15.5%14.1%12.0%12.0%12.0%10 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 75 42 108 154 214 302 5 3 3 5 8 12%56.5%24.1%51.0%52.2%51.2%49.9%25 33 33 33 46 64-1 0 0 5 9 9 41 35 36 38 54 76%0.4%0.1%-0.1%-1.8%-2.1%-1.4%0 0 0 0 0 0-1-4-8-10-2-3 10 16 17 17 18 18 0 0 1 0 0 0 51 51 53 55 71 94 0 1 4 5 6 7 211 537 698 1,387 1,631 1,960%0.3%1.7%2.3%2.6%2.3%2.0%66 84 84 112 112 112 76 49 152 195 266 355 112 44 188 364 608 937 57.6%28.3%71.9%66.0%63.8%58.6%0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 262 588 751 1,441 1,702 2,054 76 49 155 195 266 355 57.6%28.3%73.3%66.0%63.8%58.6%-10-4 5-8-11-14 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 12.8%8.0%-3.5%4.0%4.0%4.0%67 45 160 187 256 340 0.542 1.908 1.670 2.286 3.044 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.406 8.318 12.401 14.587 17.530 67 45 160 187 256 340-0.102 0.261-1.438 1.049 1.331 50.3%26.0%75.8%63.4%61.3%56.2%0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 31.55%8.47%22.94%13.47%15.67%17.36%2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 25.44%7.73%21.31%12.96%15.01%16.57%67 45 160 187 256 340 29.55%7.21%15.96%10.65%12.57%14.78%0 0 0 0 0 0 9 11 16 19 23 42 32.74%31.97%20.60%39.72%41.54%45.06%0-2-5-5-6-6 EBIT 68.97%-43.82%155.60%43.03%38.76%41.27%-4-63-150-362-156-228 15.11%-31.74%251.71%16.73%36.86%33.18%72-9 22-161 117 149 34.26%124.63%27.54%92.04%18.11%20.67%-8-13-24-58-119-118-30-25-190 91-20-20 97.9 159.4 260.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 0 1 4 5 6 7 422.8 372.5 492.4 450.0 420.0 400.0-38-37-209 38-133-131 58.5 21.6 12.6 15.0 15.0 15.0 0 309 0 514 0 0 63.9 54.7 55.0 66.1 116.6 117.7 10-10 0 0 1 1-26-80-1-11-11-11/-23.69%-47.47%-36.89%-53.12%-44.77%-38.64%-16 219-1 502-11-11 EBIT 130.2 458.0-362.8-29.0-23.8-34.4 18 173-188 379-26 7 19.39%8.71%7.07%3.80%4.20%4.58%-23-4 9 16 18 29 0 1 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.00 1.10 1.16 1.18 1.00 1 2 3 4 1.00=1.012.0=2.013.0=3.014.0=6 12 15%6 12 5%15%6 12-5%5%6 12 5%-24-C3(C3 021-60753903 021-61038200 201204 1088 7 010-66216979 010-66216793 100053 3 4 0755-83831378 0755-83830558 518000 1-1 T3-2402