深度报告-20230120-华创证券-孩子王-301078.SZ-深度研究报告_深挖单客经济_重投数字研发_32页_3mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 01 20 301078 15.4 12.43 1 2 1 2 3 2009+2022 6 500 2500 5300 1000 1000 2021 3.5 25 4.7 7.8%1 2 3 3 22 6 500 70 22Q3 4.2%Q1-1.6%19 2018 365 5000 22 6 PLUS 81 11 ARPU 4800 5 3.5 22 49%21 9%O2O 200 2 2022-2024 90.7/99.5/110.9 0.2%/9.8%/11.5%2.1/3.1/5.7 2%/51%/82%+23 55xPE 61xPE 171.1 15.4/ReportFinancialIndex 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E()9049 9069 9954 11095(%)8.3%0.2%9.8%11.5%()201 205 311 565(%)-48.4%1.9%51.4%81.6%()0.19 0.18 0.28 0.51()67 67 44 24()5 4 4 3 2023 1 17 010-66500993 S0360517040002 S0360522090001()111,204.45()61,605.13()138.23()76.58(%)61.88()2.74 12/27.18/9.94(12)-51%-23%6%34%22/01 22/03 22/06 22/08 22/11 23/012022-01-182023-01-17 300 301078 2009 1210 3 24+2022-2024 90.7/99.5/110.9 0.2%/9.8%/11.5%2022-2024 30.3%/30.4%/30.5%2022-2024 22%/21%/20%5%/5%/4%1%/1%/0.7%2022-2024 2.1/3.1/5.7 2%/51%/82%2.3%/3.1%/5.1%EPS 0.18/0.28/0.51/+23 55xPE 61xPE 171.1 301078 2009 1210 3.6.6.9.12.13+.13.16.17.17 1.17 2.20 3.22.24.27.28 301078 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.6 4.6 5.7 6.7 7.8 8.8 9.9 10 2022.06.9 11.9 12.9 13 2021.10 14 2021.10 15 2019.10 16 21.10 17.10 18.11 19.11 20.11 21.12 22.12 23.13 24.13 25.14 26.15 27.15 28.15 29.16 30.16 31 2022 10.16 32.17 33 2022.17 301078 2009 1210 5 34.18 35.19 36.19 37.19 38.19 39.19 40.21 41.21 42.21 43.22 44.22 45.22 46.22 47.22 48.23 49.24 50.24 51 2021.24 52.25 53.25 54.25 55 To B.26 56 To B.26 57.26 58.26 59 2022-2024.27 60.27 301078 2009 1210 6 3.5 25 8%2021 3.5 10.8%10.5%2025 4.7 7.8%20 37%30%15-20 16%/13%35%cagr 18%26%cagr 20%1 2 2022 956 2021 106 2017 6 2022 6.77-0.6 61 1 21 19-40 22.5%16 3.4pct 2 3 4 3 3 4 2010 2020 301078 2009 1210 7 2021 5 31 1 2 3 4 3 1000 5 2002.09.01 2013.12.29 2015.10.29 2021.05.31 6/30 15 1000 301078 2009 1210 8 10 6 10 8 2025 70%3 1000 2015 10 29 16 0.16pct 17 883 51.2%yoy+11pct 24.36 yoy+0.99pct 21 5 40 9+3-6 24 7 8 22 2.1/8.4%21 68%+22 6 301078 2009 1210 9 9 10 2022.06 IQ 20-30 61%66%5%/70%/11 12 2021 70%200 100 37%87%300 100 54%CBME 2019 5 49%2021 67%2020 45%2021 8%20 21%20 CEO 20%-30%50-70%301078 2009 1210 10 13 2021 14 2021 15 2019 16 21 CBME 20 495 2021 526 700/17 2009 2005 2003 2000 1998 2003 0-14 0-6 0-6 0-6 0-6 0-10 2500 2 400-2000 2 300 2 1000 2 100-300 2 1000 2 495 526 200 300 1800 76 301078 2009 1210 11 90.5 26.5-2021 2010/2019 101/109 2022 38/14.8 18 19 20/APP 2011 2013-11-01 100 A 2014-01-01 B 2014-05-01 2000 C 2014-12-15 6000 H Capital D 2015-09-08 1.5 H Capital E 2016-10-27 2022 9 10 APP APP 2019 8 0 6 A 2015-12-28 2021 2022 7 5 100%2012 5 2014 9 2012-12-18 A 2013-08-04 B 2014-07-03 2000 2022 3 31 APP 301078 2009 1210 12 C 2015-03-06 1 D 2017-02-09 2014 4 012 2011-08-29 Mr.I/A 2013-01-01 IDG B 2014-08-30 1.5,IDG C 2015-01-22 1,IDG,C+2015-12-02 D 2016-06-16 1 2021 8 2021 66.2%+2021 33.8%2016 11.2pct IQ 21 22 IQ 301078 2009 1210 13 23 24 23+2009+0-14 2015 APP 2016 2018 2021 2022 6 500 2500 5300 1000 1000 301078 2009 1210 14 25 21 87.5%2.9%7.6%1.0%1.1%1 21 51.5%11.1%6.9%6.3%11.7%2 2022 6 5000 81.7 3 4 APP 5 301078 2009 1210 15 26 21 90.5 8.3%18-21 10.7%21 46.1 yoy+7.9%9.9 yoy+2.2%2.6 yoy+16.4%21 82.1 yoy+7.9%75%8.4 yoy+12.1%22 21 2.0 48.4%2.2%yoy-2.5pct 22Q2 27 28 301078 2009 1210 16 29 30 41.62%HCM KW HK Holdings Limited 11.24%Coral Root Investment LTD 6.2%5%31 2022 10 2022 2 301078 2009 1210 17 32 1998-2009 CEO 2001-2009 2009-2012 CFO 2005-2010 2010-2017 2017-2019 CFO 2019-2021 CFO 2003-2022 2022 4 2022 10 2404.45 2.21%5.42 0.05%0.05%372 2.12%23-25 50%/80%/120%33 2022 2022 11 16 A 2404.45 2.21%0.05%0.05%372 2.12%5.42/40%2022 2023 50%30%2022 2024 80%30%2022 2025 120%1 301078 2009 1210 18-APP 34 3-5 1-6 2017 9 L0L8 2018 5 PLUS 199/99/2021 5000 19%2021 1062 800 75.4%96%5000 56%21 1108 22.5%301078 2009 1210 19 35 36 37 38 2018 PLUS 399/199/PLUS 199/99/399/6 8 5 22 81.7 11 ARPU 4800 39 PLUS 199/MAX 49/MAX+129/99/MAX 199/MAX 199/MAX 268/MAX 199/MAX 199/MAX 199/MAX 199/MAX 199/MAX 199/301078 2009 1210 20 App 100=1 50%100 5000 25 10000 50 15000 75 20000 100 1 8 50/100 2%5%1000/365 3/12/3 20/2 38 365 200 50/plus/5 MAX 2 MAX 2 1/APP&10 30 11.22 MAX MAX+4 MAX+1/APP&10 30 11.22 MAX 4 MAX+1/APP&10*2 30 11.22 APP APP 2022 5000 365 400+1000+APP 2-2022 6 1 4 2000-8000 3 12 3 2.1 3 21 5 17 301078 2009 1210 21 40 41/3/3 5/5 21/21 17/17+2021 53.06 134.4 64.7 KWMS 6 21 6 WMS TMS AMS 4.5 80 42 301078 2009 1210 22 43 44 Wind 3 IT 2017-2021 3.5 17 0.26%19 1.27%20 21 325 2.3%94%45 46 47 V1.0 IT V1.0 IT V1.0 V1.0 301078 2009 1210 23 POP&POP&V1.0 POP POP-5 3 7 7000 1300 48 1 APP APP POS 2 3 AI 11 95%AI 301078 2009 1210 24 1 2022 6 500 2018 258 2021 495 70 24.3%21 268 5 48 78 16%13 71 14%10 49 50 2021 1745 2400 7269/1722 2231 7719/1424 2213 6435/51 2021/268 1745 2400 7269 78 1722 2231 7719 71 1424 2213 6435 78 1369 2542 5387 495 1636 2369 6906 2 ToC ToB 2021 78.4 6.1%21.6%yoy-1.2pct 2.6 16.4%92.8%301078 2009 1210 25 52 53 0-8 54 0-8 18 5 PLUS APP To B To B+18-21 40%18 4.2%21 8.5%+4.3pct To B 21 98%42%78%29%To B C+5-10%301078 2009 1210 26 55 To B 56 To B 3+92%22 6 1000 2020 40.9%yoy-14.9pct 52.3%yoy+13.5pct 6.8%yoy+1.5%4 5 O2O 200 2 1 2 APP 3 57 58 301078 2009 1210 27 2022-2024 90.7/99.5/110.9 0.2%/9.8%/11.5%3.5%/12%/14%-3%/+6%/+7%-5%/+8%/10%-10%/+7%/+8%2022-2024 30.3%/30.4%/30.5%2022-2024 22%/21%/20%5%/5%/4%1%/1%/0.7%2022-2024 2.1/3.1/5.6 2%/51%/82%2.3%/3.1%/5.1%EPS 0.18/0.28/0.51/59 2022-2024 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 8355.4 9048.9 9069.3 9954.4 11094.5 YOY 1.4%8.3%0.2%9.8%11.5%30.5%30.6%30.3%30.4%30.5%19.4%21.4%21.5%20.9%19.7%4.6%4.8%5.0%4.7%3.9%1.0%1.1%1.1%1.0%0.7%391.0 201.6 205.5 311.1 565.1 4.7%2.2%2.3%3.1%5.1%+23 PE 30 23 55xPE 61xPE 171.1 15.4/60 PE 2021A 2022E 2023E 2021A 2022E 2023E 603214.SH 26.47 73.48 88.36 112.00 40.95 29.96 23.64 603708.SH 77.75-293.37 261.38 364.30-34.51 29.75 21.34 601933.SH 314.00-3943.87-351.96 676.74-46.40 600827.SH 206.21 752.52-204.67 501.67 31.60-43.72 002697.SZ 73.03 481.33 500.28 546.12 15.03 14.60 13.37 002697.SZ 70.72 232.11 221.81 264.20 32.48 31.88 26.77 301078 2009 1210 28 600859.SH 356.86 1340.24 727.86 1151.80 22.82 49.03 30.98-18.06 31.04 29.46 Wind 2023 01 17 301078 2009 1210 29 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1645 2454 2866 3507 9049 9069 9954 11095 0 0 0 0 6280 6317 6932 7712 76 59 69 80 21 24 25 22 91 83 83 93 1938 1950 2080 2186 910 1022 1113 1213 437 451 468 433 0 0 0 0 101 100 100 78 1433 1214 1255 1337 145 80 80 101 4155 4832 5386 6230-2-1-1-1 49 49 53 59 1-2-3-1 0 0 0 0 7 7 9 8 447 488 521 546 56 53 54 54 186 239 288 350 48 44 44 45 180 162 146 131 241 250 375 671 3109 3057 3014 2982 5 6 5 6 3971 3995 4022 4068 17 8 10 12 8126 8827 9408 10298 229 248 370 665 1 0 0 0 28 43 59 101 454 452 496 596 201 205 311 564 877 1182 1259 1340 0 0 0-1 1 0 0 0 201 205 311 565 314 311 343 381 NOPLAT 328 272 378 650 313 385 390 362 EPS()0.19 0.18 0.28 0.51 551 551 551 551 193 204 226 270 2704 3085 3265 3500 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 306 396 487 577 0 0 0 0 8.3%0.2%9.8%11.5%2268 2268 2267 2268 EBIT-29.5%-12.2%37.3%70.1%2574 2664 2754 2845-48.4%1.9%51.4%81.6%5278 5749 6019 6345 2848 3078 3389 3954 30.6%30.3%30.4%30.5%0 0 0-1 2.2%2.3%3.1%5.1%2848 3078 3389 3953 ROE 7.1%6.7%9.2%14.3%8126 8827 9408 10298 ROIC 14.9%10.3%12.9%18.8%65.0%65.1%64.0%61.6%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 109.7%104.5%97.5%85.9%599 615 587 873 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 551 455 557 829 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 31-112-90-101-55 26-7-21 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1-455 374 126 153 3 3 2 2 527-128 1 13 56 59 63 61-1207 68-229-262 53 55 55 54-465-246-230-236()0 0 0 0 0.19 0.18 0.28 0.51-742 314 1-26 0.54 0.55 0.53 0.79 41 126 54 30 2.56 2.77 3.05 3.56 546 89 90 90-16-66-66-84 P/E 67 67 44 24 587 0 0 0 P/B 5 4 4 3-1076 103 30 24 EV/EBITDA 31 36 29 19 301078 2009 1210 30 2016 2017 2017 2017 2020 2021 2021 2022 301078 2009 1210 31 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 301078 2009 1210 32(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
