20230217-华创证券-燕京啤酒-000729.SZ-跟踪分析报告_改善趋势加速_上调目标价至18元_7页_1022kb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 02 17 000729 18 18 13.38 9 3-4%10%18.5%5 23 22 2022 1+5+N 22 U8 22 3.45-3.7 51.3%-62.3%2.68-2.93 56.3%-70.8%22Q4 U8 U8 U8 U8 2022 50%40 50%6-7 2023 1 U8 40%2023 U8 50%60 V10 U8 2022 V10 18 U8 alpha 2022-2024 EPS 0.13/0.20/0.29 0.11/0.15/0.21 PE 19-20 20 PE FY1 65X/90X 10%3-4 15-20 17 30 PE 23 510 18 23-24 PE 90 62 PE 35%ReportFinancialIndex S0360520070001 021-20572565 S0360519100004 021-20572598 S0360518040001()281,853.93()250,956.01()377.12()335.78(%)35.53()4.96 12/13.38/6.47(12)000729 2022 2022-10-28 000729 2022-09-16-24%8%39%71%22/02 22/04 22/07 22/09 22/12 23/022022-02-162023-02-16 300 000729 2009 1210 2 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()11,961 13,152 14,928 16,445(%)9.4%10.0%13.5%10.2%()228 357 566 819(%)15.8%56.5%58.5%44.9%()0.08 0.13 0.20 0.29()165 106 67 46()2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2023 2 16 000729 2009 1210 3 1 PE PE FY3 56X 48X Wind PE wind 22-24E 2 10%PE 2018 PE 21E 30 Wind 21 2020 3 PE-Band 4 PB-Band Wind Wind 000729 2009 1210 4 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 5,059 6,432 7,944 9,763 11,961 13,152 14,928 16,445 0 0 0 0 7,363 7,981 8,720 9,349 191 215 243 249 1,096 1,166 1,299 1,398 149 167 181 192 1,559 1,789 2,135 2,385 3,911 3,881 3,973 3,977 1,438 1,539 1,717 1,842 0 0 0 0 209 210 209 214 108 127 134 144-119-108-112-114 9,418 10,822 12,475 14,325-4-4-4-4 0 0 0 0-64-50-55-55 311 311 311 311 0 0 0 0 8,445 7,958 7,544 7,178 36 36 36 36 43 98 128 148 54 62 62 62 878 790 711 640 435 657 1,000 1,412 325 324 324 324 20 5 5 5 10,002 9,481 9,018 8,601 10 3 3 3 19,420 20,303 21,493 22,926 445 659 1,002 1,414 0 0 0 0 152 204 290 396 0 0 0 0 293 455 712 1,018 1,394 1,630 1,912 2,190 65 98 146 199 0 0 0 0 228 357 566 819 1,176 1,355 1,582 1,792 NOPLAT 214 380 632 936 2,155 2,300 2,300 2,300 EPS()0.08 0.13 0.20 0.29 21 21 21 21 630 536 648 772 5,376 5,842 6,463 7,075 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.4%10.0%13.5%10.2%71 71 71 71 EBIT-14.1%69.3%61.5%46.1%71 71 71 71 15.8%56.5%58.5%44.9%5,447 5,913 6,534 7,146 13,409 13,729 14,152 14,774 38.4%39.3%41.6%43.2%564 661 807 1,006 2.4%3.5%4.8%6.2%13,973 14,390 14,959 15,780 ROE 1.6%2.5%3.8%5.2%19,420 20,303 21,493 22,926 ROIC 2.0%3.3%5.2%7.2%28.1%29.1%30.4%31.2%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 0.7%0.6%0.6%0.6%1,625 1,329 1,678 2,027 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 920 1,132 1,335 1,598 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5-84 30-93-4 46 8 13 38 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 520 381 282 278 6 6 6 5 223-223 141 117 59 68 73 79-1,406-259-268-273 189 176 162 153-279-264-273-277()-15 0 0 0 0.08 0.13 0.20 0.29-1,112 5 5 4 0.58 0.47 0.60 0.72-227 303 102 65 4.76 4.87 5.02 5.24 21 0 0 0-207-192-255-340 P/E 165 106 67 46 2 0 0 0 P/B 3 3 3 3-43 495 357 405 EV/EBITDA 35 28 23 19 000729 2009 1210 5 6 2020 2021 2018 2019 4 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 14 2013 2021 2022 2022 000729 2009 1210 6 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 000729 2009 1210 7(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
