深度报告-20230213-东方证券-通信行业深度报告_ChatGPT掀起全球热潮_光通信领域有望受益于高算力需求_15页_1016kb (1).pdf
|ChatGPT AI ChatGPT AI C 1 OpenAI Meta AIGC ChatGPT AI ChatGPT RLHF ChatGPT GPT-2 15 GPT-3 1750 GPT-3.5 2000 OpenAI 1 GPU ChatGPT OpenAI GPT-4 GPT3.5 CPO 1 100 10nm 2 CPO CMOS 3 1/CPO(300394)(300308)(300502)(301205)(002281)(000938)(301165)2(002837)(603912)/2023 02 13 021-63325888*6085 S0860514090001 BRW773 2022-10-11 ChatGPT ChatGPT 2 ChatGPT.4 ChatGPT AIGC.6 2.1.6 2.2 CPO.7.9 3.1.10 3.2.10 3.3.11 3.4.11 3.5.11 3.6.12 3.7.12 3.8.12 3.9.13.13 ChatGPT 3 1 2022 Gartner.4 2 AI.4 3 ChatGPT.4 4 OpenAI ChatGPT Plus.4 5 RLHF.6 6.7 7 2021 2027.7 8.8 9 CPO.8 10 CPO.8 11.9 12.10 13.10 1 AIGC.5 2 GPT.6 ChatGPT 4 ChatGPT ChatGPT-ChatGPT AI OpenAI AIGC ChatGPT AI ChatGPT 1 tiktok/Instagram/Meta/Twitter 9/30/54/60 1 ChatGPT AI AIGC AI Generated Content AIGC UGC()PGC Gartner AI 2022 Gartner 2025 AI 10%1%AIGC UGC/PGC AIGC AI 1 2022 Gartner 2 AI Gartner ChatGPT AIGC To C AIGC B AIGC B AI ChatGPT AIGC C ChatGPT 1 2023 2 OpenAI ChatGPT-ChatGPT Plus 20 ChatGPT Plus ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT Plus AIGC To C AIGC 3 ChatGPT 4 OpenAI ChatGPT Plus ChatGPT 5 CSDN ChatGPT AI AIGC ChatGPT AIGC To C AIGC ChatGPT CEO Sundar Pichai(Code Red),ChatGPT AI Anthropic 4 2 7 AI Bard Meta AIGC ChatGPT 2023 2 ChatGPT AI 3 AIGC 2023 AIGC 2030 AIGC 1100 1 AIGC 2 8 ChatGPT Bing Edge 1 24 Open AI Azure Open AI Open AI 100 Open AI 290 2 4 Google Cloud Open AI Anthropic AI Anthropic 3 10%2 7 AI Bard 2 3 CEO 2 3 AI 2 6 AI ChatGPT ChatGPT 1 GPU 2 7 ChatGPT AI 15%2 8 APP ChatGPT 2 8 ChatGPT ChatGPT 6 ChatGPT AIGC 2.1 ChatGPT RLHF ChatGPT GPT RLHF AI 2018 OpenAI GPT 1.17 GPT-2 15 GPT-3 1750 AI OpenAI 1 GPU ChatGPT ChatGPT GPT3 GPT-3.5 GPT3.5 3.0 GPT3.5 OpenAI GPT-3.5 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback(RLHF)AI AI AI AI AI ChatGPT 5 RLHF OpenAI AI AI AI ChatGPT GPT-3.5 3000 2000 GPT-3.5 OpenAI 1 GPU OpenAI GPT-4 GPT3.5 OpenAI AI AI 3-4 18-24 AI 2 GPT ChatGPT 7 GPT 2018 6 1.17 5GB GPT-2 2019 2 15 40GB GPT-3 2020 5 1,750 45TB GPT-3.5 2022 12 2,000-3 18-24 50 Digitimes 3nm 2 5nm 25%2%6 Computer Architecture:A Quantitative Approach 6/e 2018 2.2 CPO-CMOS 100 10nm Yole Group 2027 9.72 21-27 CAGR 36%7 2021 2027 ChatGPT 8 Yole-AI CMOS PCB(Co-Packaged Optics)CMOS CMOS PCB CPO 32 100Gbps 436W CPO 230W Lightcounting CPO 2024 2025 2026 2027 2027 CPO 800G 1.6T 30%200G/400G CIR 2027 54 8 9 CPO 10 CPO ChatGPT 9 CIR 2022-2028-Colocation America 2020 16.5KW 2008 6KW 175%2025 25kW 1 2 3 2025 1283-1330 23-30%11 1/CPO 2 ChatGPT 10 3.1 AOC 9 BOX AWG 2017-2022 2023 1 30 2022,2022 12.05 16.77%3.99 30.16%2017-2022 2017-2022 28.95%29.16%2019 2020 2 7.86 2021 12 13 3.2 5G 100-800G LightCounting 2021 2022 42.31 28.3%4.9 41.82%2017-2021 ChatGPT 11 34.42%/52.54%800G CPO 3.3 5G OSA XPON 10G 25G 40G 50G 100G 200G 400G 800G 2022 2022 8.9-10.2 34.46%-54.1%2022 H1 14.79 2.61%4.61 42.75%8.76pct,2023 800G 3.4 10G/25G/40G/100G/200G/400G/800G SFP+,XFP,QSFP+,QSFP56,SFP56,QSFP28-DD,AOC,SFP Arista IPG 800G 2022 H1 4.19 35.07%0.61 63.25%2018-2021/2022 9 400G 800G 2022 8 800G EML SIP TFLN 800G NPO/CPO 3.5-2016 40.59 2021 64.86 CAGR 9.8%2.85 5.67 CAGR 14.8%100G 400G PLC III-V SiP 2018 100G 100G/200G ChatGPT 12 100G 400G 2021 12 1.6T/s Tb/s 3.6 ICT ICT ICT ICT Wlan 800G 2022 H1 344.02 11.88%9.59 3.58%2009-2021 12 2017-2021 14.7%8.07%2022 7 800G-S9855-16D22E 800G-3.7 ICT 2003 ICT 2022 H1 45.22 34.19%2.61 17.06%2022 11 21 2022 10 CPO 2021 OCP NPO 2022 10 CPO CPO 3.8 30+ChatGPT 13 3.9 IDC AI CPO CPO AI ChatGPT AIGC ChatGPT AIGC ChatGPT 14 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
