深度报告-20230212-华创证券-和胜股份-002824.SZ-深度研究报告_麒麟电池提升托盘壁垒_储能结构件打开第二成长曲线_28页_1mb (1).pdf
2009 1210 2023 02 12 002824 68.1 40.84 ASP CTP Pack 70%22 CTP 3000/FSW C 22+23 22 2022-2024 3/5/6.55 2.2/4.53/6.26 2023 PE 30 68.1 ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()2,410 3,019 5,345 7,908(%)62.4%25.2%77.0%48.0%()206 220 453 626(%)173.4%6.8%105.7%38.3%()1.12 1.10 2.27 3.14()37 37 18 13()6.9 6.5 4.8 3.6 2023 2 10 0755-82755859 S0360517100004 S0360520060001()19,971.30()13,063.92()81.56()53.35(%)45.99()7.51 12/63.49/21.83(12)002824 CTP 2022-05-18 002824 2021 2022-04-27 002824 CTP CTP 2022-02-07-42%-5%32%69%22/02 22/04 22/07 22/09 22/11 23/022022-02-112023-02-10 300 002824 2009 1210 23 4680 23 24 2022-2024 3/5/6.55 2.2/4.53/6.26 2023 PE 30 68.1 002824 2009 1210 3.6.6.8.10.12.15.15.18.20.21.21.23.24.24 002824 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.7 4/.7 5.8 6.8 7 4680.8 8 CTP.9 9 CTP.9 10 CTP.9 11.10 12.10 13 4680.10 14.11 15 CTP.11 16 2021.12 17 22.13 18 22.13 19.13 20.14 21.14 22/GW.15 23/GW.15 24.15 25.17 26.17 27.18 28.19 29.19 30 2021/MWh.20 31 CATL.20 32.21 33.21 002824 2009 1210 5 34.22 35/.23 36/.23 37.23 38/.24 002824 2009 1210 6 2016 197 ENERGY&CLIMATE INTELLIGENCE UNIT 42 1/2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2053 2060 ENERGY&CLIMATE INTELLIGENCE UNIT 2020 2021 2022 2 marklines 2022 8 2023 002824 2009 1210 7 3 2014 8 6 2014 9 1-2017 12 31 2017 12 26 2018 1 1-2020 12 31 2020 4 28 2021 1 1-2022 12 31 2022 2022 9 18 2023 1 1-2023 12 31 2023 1 1 2023 12 31 2023 1431/+35%EV-V olumes 2021 675/+108%2022 1060/+57%2023 1431/+35%900/+40%280/+15%179.5/+80%4/EV-Volumes 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020040060080010001200140016002018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E YoY 002824 2009 1210 8 5 4680 23 4680 4680 2023 6 7 4680 CTP 2019 CTP Cell to Pack-PACK CTP 002824 2009 1210 9 8 CTP CTP CTP CTP 9 CTP 10 CTP 2022 CTP 2022 6 23 CTP 72%225Wh/kg 13%1000 4C 002824 2009 1210 10 11 12 CTP 3.0 72%CTP 3.0 PACK CTP 1.0 55%72%13 4680 PACK BMS 002824 2009 1210 11 14 CTP CTP CTP CTP 15 CTP SMM CTP CTP/CTP CTP CTP 002824 2009 1210 12 CTP CTP CTP CTP 2000 3000-4000 2019 22 12 CTP CTP CTP 1.0 3.0 2021 2022 16 2021 10 15,000 171 100 17 2021 3 2022 9 2023 22 002824 2009 1210 13 17 22 18 22 wind wind 19 2022 86/2026 300/2020 43.17 16.68%27.23-2021 13.8 2023 2022 120 2025 100 2022 50-60 18.38 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 002824 2009 1210 14 20 wind 2017 2018 CTP 21 wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 002824 2009 1210 15 22/GW 23/GW IEA CPIA GWEC CWEA 50GW 21 5.7GW 24 1GW=100 KW 2025 468 300 2025 217 435 14(2022-2025)2025 60 2025 12447 12680 600 2025 200 2025 2GW/4GWh 050100150200250300350400 0204060801001201402019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 002824 2009 1210 16 2025 100 2030 400 500 2025 400 200 2025 400 2025 1.1 1.3 5000 220 2025 30GW 2025 2GW 2030 20000MW 2025 1000 328 8%2025 260 2025 100 2030 1000 2025 300 100 2025 500 1.35 2025 4500 2025,0.93,1643,600 2025 500 2025 600 2025,1.5 2025 1250 1300 800 30%1.52GWh 2022-2024 5450 2022 2102 2023 1792 2024 1557 300 2021 31 7.6 2025 383 1361 37.3%002824 2009 1210 17 IRA+SGIP+NEM3.0+2022 8 IRA Inflation Reduction Act ITC 23 ITC SGIP ITC SGIP SGIP 12 CPUC NEM3.0 23 4 NEM 3.0 25 IRA(Inflation Reduction Act)2033 ITC ITC SGIP SGIP NEM3.0=+-IRA SGIP SEDA REPower EU 22 12 180/MWh 23 2 15 22 11 23 3 1 24 4 30 23 26 3 TTF 180/MWh 2025 320GW 2030 600GW Repower EU 55%2030 40%45%2000 2021-2025 10.4GW 72.2GW CAGR 62.18%IEA CPIA GWEC CWEA 002824 2009 1210 18 27+2021 2022 2023 2024 2025/GW 172 218 248 273 300 41%42%43%44%45%/GW 71 91 106 120 135 5%7%9%12%15%70%80%90%90%90%/GW 2.5 5.1 8.6 12.9 18.2 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025/GW 172 218 248 273 300 59%58%57%56%55%/GW 101 126 141 153 165/GW 94 101 102 106 119/GW 195 227 243 258 284 16%24%32%40%50%22%24%26%28%30%/GW 6.9 13.1 20.3 28.9 42.7/GW 1.1 1.9 3.5 6.3 11.3/GW 10.4 20.1 32.4 48.2 72.2 IEA CPIA GWEC CWEA 002824 2009 1210 19 28 29 Li+Li+2V 300 002824 2009 1210 20 2021 2022 11 30 2021/MWh CNESA 2019 22 12 31 CATL 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000宁德时代 鹏辉能源 比亚迪 亿纬锂能 派能科技 国轩高科 海基新能源 中创新航 南都电源 中天科技 002824 2009 1210 21 32 CNC 2018 OLED 1699 NOVA10 1429 Redmi note 12 33 iPhone 14 5999 iPhone 14 Plus 6999 iPhone 14 Pro 7999 iPhone 14 Pro Max 8999 Mate 50 4999 P50 4488 NOVA10 1699 50-1299 Xiaomi 13 4599 Xiaomi civi 2-2399 Redmi K60-2499 Redmi note 12 1429 OPPO OPPO Reno 8 2499 002824 2009 1210 22 OPPO Find N 7699 vivo vivo X90 4999 vivo S15 2699 vivo IQOO11 3799 3D 34 80%30-40%70%30-40%+CNC CNC+CNC+CNC CNC 23 2018 20 002824 2009 1210 23 35/36/IDC HDE 3C 37 2023 2019 2022H1 2022-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05010015020025030035040045017Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q3/YoY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70/YoY 002824 2009 1210 24 38/wind 2022-2024 30.19 53.44 79.07+25%+77%+48%C 21 CATL 2022-2024 57 108 149 2022-2024 20%20.6%19.6%2023 20%22 2022-2024 2.2 4.53 6.26+6.8%+105.7%+38.3%.2023 PE 30 68.1 1 2 3-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0123456782017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 YoY 002824 2009 1210 25 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 129 389 441 668 2,410 3,019 5,345 7,908 23 30 53 79 1,922 2,415 4,244 6,358 843 1,031 1,773 2,546 11 15 24 36 10 16 26 40 18 27 48 63 330 404 747 1,085 110 144 257 368 0 0 0 0 101 152 264 391 62 101 175 249 12 14 14 13 1,397 1,971 3,215 4,667-6-5-4-3 1 2 3 5-1-1-1-1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 570 756 1,021 1,337-9-9-5-3 80 130 180 200 4 1 5 5 82 74 66 60 224 239 490 678 142 140 140 138 0 0 1 0 875 1,102 1,410 1,740 1 1 1 1 2,272 3,073 4,625 6,407 223 238 490 677 264 334 424 574 10 11 23 31 51 72 159 192 213 227 467 646 425 555 1,061 1,589 7 7 14 20 0 0 0 0 206 220 453 626 2 2 4 6 NOPLAT 225 241 481 659 43 43 43 43 EPS()1.12 1.10 2.27 3.14 36 36 36 36 120 147 269 387 941 1,189 1,996 2,827 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 74 454 754 1,104 0 0 0 0 62.4%25.2%77.0%48.0%96 96 96 96 EBIT 132.6%7.0%99.9%37.1%170 550 850 1,200 173.4%6.8%105.7%38.3%1,111 1,739 2,846 4,027 1,089 1,255 1,686 2,267 20.2%20.0%20.6%19.6%72 79 93 113 8.8%7.5%8.7%8.2%1,161 1,334 1,779 2,380 ROE 17.8%16.5%25.5%26.3%2,272 3,073 4,625 6,407 ROIC 14.5%11.1%15.8%15.9%48.9%56.6%61.5%62.9%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 40.5%69.0%73.6%76.1%125 175 20 164 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 291 315 575 782 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3-127-74-343-338-377-199-774-811 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 256 151 592 562 98 112 94 98 82-17-30-30 60 73 69 75-186-301-401-451 50 55 49 52-162-301-401-451()0 0 0 0 1.12 1.10 2.27 3.14-24 0 0 0 0.63 0.88 0.10 0.82 79 386 433 514 5.45 6.28 8.44 11.35 102 450 390 500-21-36-60-77 P/E 37 37 18 13 25 25 25 25 P/B 7 7 5 4-27-53 78 66 EV/EBITDA 19 18 10 7 002824 2009 1210 26 TMT 2019 2016 2017 3 2020 2019 2021 2021 1 2022 2022 002824 2009 1210 27 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 002824 2009 1210 28(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
