深度报告-20230210-浙商证券-孩子王-301078.SZ-孩子王首次覆盖报告_深耕母婴单客经济_数字化赋能全渠道融合_29页_4mb (1).pdf
2 0 2 3 02 10 深耕母婴单客经济，数字化赋能全渠道融合 孩 子王 首次覆盖报告-54%-39%-23%-7%9%24%22/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/0922/1122/1223/0123/02 .1 1.1 1 1.2 2 1 2/1.3 3 营 业收入 毛 利率 期 间费用 期间费用率 销 售费用 销售费用率 管 理费用 管理费用率 研 发费用 研发费用率 财 务费用 财务费用率 归 母净利润 归母净利率 扣 非归母净 利润 扣非归母净利率 货 币资金 应 收票据及 应收账 款 应付 票据及 应付账款 预 付账款 固 定资产 经 营性现金 流净额 投 资性现金 流净额 筹 资性现金 流净额 1.4 2019 16.47%2022 48.61%2022 6 APP 4,429 139 4,317 50 3 4 5 2 2.1 83.53%69.21%55.38%51.39%16.47%30.79%44.62%48.61%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002019 2020 2021 22H1 3,008.6 3,672.5 4,421.3 4,407.4 4,785.8 802.5 1,042.3 1,252.9 1,275.4 1,343.5 638.0 837.9 1,010.7 923.7 1,010.9 0100020003000400050006000700080002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 12535394 43167123121024681012 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 6 2.2 2.2.1 7-9.98%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY2011.11，双独二孩2013.11，单独二孩2016.1.1，全面二孩2021.5.31，三孩政策&配套措施 4 8 9 2.2.1 10 11 471013162010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 25.80%26.10%26.80%26.70%25.2%25.4%25.6%25.8%26.0%26.2%26.4%26.6%26.8%27.0%1.912.182.462.652.883.123.363.643.934.244.384.740.590.70.790.941.051.141.241.341.461.61.711.8900.511.522.533.544.552010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021城 镇 居民家 庭:人均年可 支配收 入 农村居民 家庭：人均年 可支配 收入36.2251.8364.723035404550556065702000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 12 13 核心增长驱动因素人均母婴支出提高 14 2.3 6%13.80%27.30%26.80%15.80%8.90%1.40%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%50,000 30,001-50,000 20,001-30,000 15,001-20,000 10,001-15,000 5000-10,000 5000 15.90%20%15%16%17%18%19%20%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E2022E2.10 2.36 2.66 2.99 3.12 3.46 3.76 4.05 4.36 4.68 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 15 16 2.4 79.61%48.39%41.70%14.10%28.34%31.92%6.30%23.26%26.38%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 54%52%40%38%34%29%28%28%26%26%0%20%40%60%/3C/5 17 18 1 2(3)572 860 1,818 3,606 5,009 6,376 7,675 9,108 10,001 11,000 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021交易规模（亿元）YoY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%19 20 APP 2021 48.3%39%2022 APP APP 21 22 2.5 48.30%40.90%39.00%36.20%33.70%31.40%27.80%24.80%23.80%19.30%0.30%0%10%20%30%40%50%/42%37%14%7%6 2022 2022 6 23 24 3 3.1 25 26 27 42 4594826121325835243449501002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021净增加数 门店数合 计 28 29 7/3.2 8 97.76%98.10%98.40%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002018 2019 2020 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2018 2019 20200-500 500-1000 1000-20002000-5000 5000-10000 15000 30 31 32 3.2.1 4,951.306,152.02 7,410.80 7,386.42 7,835.11-50%0%50%100%150%02,5005,0007,5002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 94.58%92.23%89.91%88.40%86.59%2.43%2.71%3.20%2.66%2.85%2.01%3.65%5.11%6.21%7.48%75%80%85%90%95%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%100.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 33 34 3.2.2 35 3.3 3.3.1 36 37 38 3.3.2 0.26%0.62%1.27%1.04%1.12%1.03%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 3.39%2.86%2.32%2.18%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002019 2020 2021 2022H1 39 40 41 3.3.3 3.3.4 42 43 44 2018 9 4 45 5 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 估值及投资建议：11 6
