深度报告-20230115-国盛证券-博汇纸业-600966.SH-白卡龙头扬帆_盈利改善可期_27页_1mb.pdf
|2023 01 15 600966.SH 215 100 45 2020 10 APP A 2022Q1-3/+16.0%/-68.0%138.45/6.13 2021-2024 CAGR 11%80 100 2022H1 2022H2 2020 2023-2025 2023 APP 2022 Q1-3 6.1 23 1000/400/2019&2022-24-58.7%/+80.1%/+25.5%7.04/12.68/15.92 PE 16.6X/9.2X/7.3X 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 13,982 16,276 18,035 19,447 20,157 yoy%43.6 16.4 10.8 7.8 3.7 834 1,706 704 1,268 1,592 yoy%523.5 104.5-58.7 80.0 25.5 EPS/0.62 1.28 0.53 0.95 1.19%13.7 23.5 8.8 13.8 14.9 P/E 14.0 6.8 16.6 9.2 7.3 P/B 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 Wind 2023 1 13 1 13()8.62()11,523.60()1,336.84(%)100.00 30()13.29 S0680521070003 S0680122040027-46%-37%-27%-18%-9%0%9%2022-01 2022-05 2022-09 2023-01 300 2023 01 15 P.2 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 6436 7310 8748 6957 10528 13982 16276 18035 19447 20157 2663 3302 4219 2581 5821 11597 12544 15366 15897 16139 620 642 756 751 811 53 78 70 75 82 218 218 265 256 284 37 64 126 117 121 424 368 510 437 544 369 539 631 683 708 1504 2095 2313 2247 2383 280 556 649 710 746 1008 685 685 685 685 571 169 254 284 257 13017 12604 13631 14312 14145-9-17-19-20-21 0 0 0 0 0 11 12 0 0 0 11352 10292 11223 11866 11842 10 1 0 0 3 223 272 278 277 271 9-60-9-11-18 1441 2040 2130 2169 2032-1-14-6-4-6 19453 19914 22379 21269 24673 1097 2254 941 1686 2104 10543 10202 12123 10045 12336 3 3 2 2 2 3437 3240 3240 3240 3240 7 15 19 23 16 4964 4603 7117 5008 7302 1093 2242 924 1665 2090 2142 2359 1765 1797 1794 259 536 220 397 498 2823 2445 2285 2038 1619 834 1706 704 1268 1592 2580 1596 1436 1189 770 0 0 0 0 0 243 849 849 849 849 834 1706 704 1268 1592 13366 12647 14408 12083 13956 EBITDA 2179 3194 1767 2609 3071 0 0 0 0 0 EPS/0.62 1.28 0.53 0.95 1.19 1337 1337 1337 1337 1337 1333 1333 1333 1333 1333 3418 4957 5580 6695 8113 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 6087 7267 7971 9186 10717 19453 19914 22379 21269 24673%43.6 16.4 10.8 7.8 3.7%473.9 105.4-58.2 79.1 24.8%523.5 104.5-58.7 80.0 25.5%17.1 22.9 14.8 18.3 19.9%6.0 10.5 3.9 6.5 7.9 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE%13.7 23.5 8.8 13.8 14.9 3596 3645 3673 421 4708 ROIC%7.9 13.4 5.8 9.3 10.5 834 1706 704 1268 1592 788 750 709 806 878%68.7 63.5 64.4 56.8 56.6 571 169 254 284 257%77.1 45.5 20.6 33.3-5.6-9 60 9 11 18 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1503 742 1991-1953 1960 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6-91 218 6 4 3-328-307-1751-1502-732 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 337 308 1028 681-167 17.0 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 0-14 0 0 0 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 9-13-723-821-899-3252-3092-1006-556-737 0.62 1.28 0.53 0.95 1.19-1738-196 0 0 0 2.69 2.73 2.75 0.31 3.52-345-984-160-247-419 4.55 5.44 5.96 6.87 8.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P/E 14.0 6.8 16.6 9.2 7.3-1170-1912-846-309-318 P/B 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 15 244 916-1637 3240 EV/EBITDA 7.4 4.7 7.5 5.6 3.6 Wind 2023 1 13 2023 01 15 P.3 1.5 1.1.5 1.2 APP.9 2.10 2.1.10 2.2.12 3 2023.15 3.1 APP.15 3.2 2023.19 4.23 4.1.23 4.2.25.26 1.5 2.6 3.7 4.8 5.8 6 2019-2022.8 7.9 8.9 9.9 10.10 11/.11 12.11 13.11 14.11 15.12 16/.12 17%.12 18.12 19.13 20%.13 21.13 22 2019.15 23 2021.15 24.15 25 APP 7%.16 26 APP.16 27.16 2023 01 15 P.4 28.16 29 APP.17 30 APP.17 31 APP.17 32 2020.18 33.19 34%.19 35.19 36.20 37 2022 20.20 38 2022 20.20 39.21 40 2018/.22 41.22 42.24 43.25 44.25 2023 01 15 P.5 1 1.1 1994 2021 225 15%2020 10 APP A 2022Q1-3/+16.0%/-68.0%138.45/6.13 1 1 1994-2003 1994 1996 15 2002 13 2003 30 2 2004-2019 2004 2010 2013 2019 150 2013-2019 57.15 97.40 CAGR 9.3%3 2020 APP 2020 9 APP 2019-2021 97.39 162.76 CAGR 29.3%2020 2004-2019 1994-2003 200260%1996 2003 30 1994 2004 2009 35 2010 2019 50 50 2021 100 202245 APP 2020APP 2022 80 2013 75 2019 75 2023 01 15 P.6 2 Wind 1 2015-2021 52.14 125.08 CAGR 15.7%73.9%76.9%APP 2019-2021 88%95%2 2019 50 2015-2021 9.44 15.74 CAGR 8.9%13.4%9.7%2022 10 45 2023 3 2019 50 2015-2021 3.89 15.90 CAGR 26.4%5.5%9.8%2017 621 2021 119 2022 2023 单位：百万元 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 22Q1-3 7057.76 7796.26 8954.81 8339.44 9739.80 13982.10 16276.12 13845.39YOY 1.10%10.46%14.86%-6.87%16.79%43.56%16.41%16.00%38.55 201.32 856.14 255.94 133.77 834.07 1705.68 612.68YOY-14.11%422.26%325.26%-70.11%-47.73%523.50%104.50%-68.04%-99.07 162.20 866.00 260.01 175.78 821.97 1712.77 610.17YOY-1.85%263.72%433.90%-69.98%-32.39%367.60%108.37%-68.27%11.88%14.62%24.03%16.04%14.58%17.06%22.93%16.21%13.15%10.99%10.51%11.64%12.26%8.99%8.16%9.45%5.14%4.90%5.18%3.96%4.11%0.26%0.39%0.77%1.96%1.28%1.62%2.10%2.89%4.64%6.73%6.84%6.06%4.80%3.70%5.57%5.25%4.08%1.04%1.84%0.55%2.58%9.56%3.07%1.37%5.97%10.48%4.43%82.48 71.56 74.93 85.54 65.57 43.90 51.64 70.54-4.90-10.92 3.37 10.61-19.97-21.67 7.73 1.30 37.96 39.60 35.07 40.33 36.59 21.06 13.95 15.88 5.81 1.65-4.54 5.27-3.75-15.53-7.11 2.20 41.71 40.52 47.21 62.35 69.05 59.06 61.93 68.50-8.95-1.19 6.69 15.15 6.69-9.98 2.86 0.47 101.68 157.36 156.29 419.54 968.08 350.74 514.81 602.05-35.80 55.68-1.07 31.96 102.67 59.82 164.07-110.21 472.19 887.81 1286.28 1073.13 1137.29 3596.15 3644.72 987.14 137.25 415.62 398.47-213.15 64.16 2458.86 48.57-1627.91 34.39 32.59 1202.19 2364.99 1611.56 336.90 308.31 550.34-162.19-1.80 1169.60 1162.80-753.44-1274.65-28.59 472.64ROE 0.98%4.89%17.24%4.98%2.54%13.70%23.47%8.88%YOY（）-0.17%3.90%12.35%-12.26%-2.44%11.17%9.77%-16.58%64.90%62.88%62.81%72.21%72.78%68.71%63.51%70.66%YOY（）-2.17%-2.03%-0.07%9.40%0.57%-4.07%-5.20%6.07%2023 01 15 P.7 3/AAA AA AAA AA 2023 01 15 P.8 4 5 6 2019-2022 2022 380 215 65 150 100 45 15 2022 45 PM8 10.5m 1800m/min 80 2024 2022Q4 2021-2024 CAGR 11%100 79%78%81%79%77%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 83%86%88%103%95%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-500050010001500200019Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 20Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4/2023 01 15 P.9 7 8 1.2 APP APP 48.8%2020 9 APP 28.84%20.00%APP 48.84%9 APP APP APP 14 APP APP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2024 55 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 75 75 75 75 75 75 150 150 150 150 150 230 330 22 25 25 25 25 25 25 50 50 50 45 45 45 45 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 50 50 50 100 100 100 100 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 110 198 198 198 198 198 198 333 333 333 378 378 458 558 2022.11.16 1640.15 45 2022.10.29 24916 80 20%28.84%51.16%100%100%100%100%100%100%2023 01 15 P.10 10 1985-2008 2009 1()()()()()1998 10 2020 10()()CEO()Caledonia 2017 2020 10 2006 4 2009 5 2009 6 2013 1(2011 7 2013 1 B)2013 1 2013 8 2013 10 2016 9 2016 11 2022 10 APP 2022 11 1995 2010 2011 2018 2019 2020 3 2020 3 2013-2015 2 2.1 2022H1 2022H2 2022H1 2022 1-7+214%+23.3%/+53.7%5900/6500/2022H2 11 27.45 21%5200/2023 01 15 P.11 11/12 2022 51 2017-2021 69 25%2021Q4 APP 240 2022 86 2017-2021 72 20%/933/842/85%/93%-13%13 14 5000600070008000900010000110002021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12/-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%05101520253035402019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-10-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01020304050607080901002017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-11%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01020304050607080901002017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-11%2023 01 15 P.12 15 16/11 68.5%35%9 0.6pct 11 163 17%18 2.2 2017-2021 789 879 CAGR 2.7%2020 4000500060007000800090001000011000-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-10%/0200400600800100012002021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12(/)(/)40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-09 051015202530350204060801001201401601802019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-10 2023 01 15 P.13 19 20%Wind 21 2023 1 2023 7 1 100g/2022 12 2022 5 2022 2022 4 0.025 0.01 2022 4 2022 2021 12 2021 9 1000 2021 8 2023 9 1 2021 9 2021-2022 2021 28%11%11%7%7%5%3%2%1%25%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%200420062008201020122014201620182020:2023 01 15 P.14 6%2022 12%2021 7 2021 6 2021 2 2021 1 2021 1 2020 11 2020 8 2020 1 0.025 0.01 2022 2025 2023 2020 APP 2021 CR4 84%TOP1 50%2022 9 PM32 60 2023Q1 30 2023 120 2024 2023 2023 2023 01 15 P.15 22 2019 23 2021 24 Wind 3 2023 3.1 APP APP 2021 400 7%2021 APP 27 230 50%2000 Hawkins Wright 300 445 500 APP 2019-2021 CAGR-8%CAGR+8%APP32%20%19%13%16%APP 44%18%16%6%16%2022 2023 2024 2025 120 45 60APP/80APP/90APP/90APP/120APP/150 138 36 200 200 160 60 100 100 62 30 30 30 80 180 250 383 1168 255 135 241-53 76 83-308 59 158 2023 01 15 P.16 25 APP 7%26 APP 12th Annual Global Emerging Markets Corporate Conference Arauco 156 27 28 Arauco 1 APP 5 8 573 265 255 228 150 APP APP 18 40 APP 150 100%105%110%115%120%125%130%0501001502002503002017 2018 2019 2020 2021%2670286129912791256223852000250030003500400045005000550060006500700020002200240026002800300032002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/2023 01 15 P.17 29 APP 2021 APP 1220 417 595 156 21%47%9%250-400g 2017-2022 APP 110/APP PM8 100-200/30 APP 31 APP 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 210 210 210 230 230 227 246 261 263 251 196 204 210 208 194 367 367 367 417 417 376 353 374 387 396 378 349 382 381 395 312 312 312 595 595 322 361 403 705 640 318 362 407 710 642 137 137 137 137 156 112 102 113 117 116 107 104 119 116 116 48 48 48 48 52 37 40 39 40 46 46-200-100010020030040050040005000600070008000900010000110002017-01-032017-04-282017-08-212017-12-142018-04-112018-08-022018-11-272019-03-222019-07-162019-11-082020-03-062020-06-302020-10-232021-02-182021-06-102021-09-302022-01-262022-05-242022-09-14-/(250-400g)/(250-400g)/2023 01 15 P.18&APP 2020 APP MBOS UV2 SBV IBH 2019-2021 0.08%3.42%2022-2023 3 2022-24 15%32 2020 Wind 2016.01.15-2020.02.02 2020.01.02-2020.10.29 2020.10.30-2022.11.28(),(),();2020 10 2022 11 2022.11.281995 2010 2011 2018 2019 2020 3 2020 3 2019.06.02-2020.10.29 2015.04.28-2020.10.29 2020.10.30-2021.08.31 2020.10.30-2022.03.012011 2 2019 8 2019 9 2020 10 2021.12.14-2022.11.072011 10 2015 9()/2015 12 2018 12 2018 12 2020 12 2021 1 2022 11 2020.10.30-2022.11.281995 2010 2011 2018 2019 2020 3 2020 32020 10 2022 11 2022.11.152006 4 2009 5 2009 6 2013 1 2011 7-2013 1 B2013 1-2013 82013 10-2016 92016 11-2022 10 APP 2022 11 2020.10.30 Caledonia 2017 2020 10 2015.04.28-2020.10.29 2020.10.30 Caledonia 2017 2020 10 2015.04.28-2020.10.29 2020.10.301998 10 2020 10()2023 01 15 P.19 33 34%Wind Wind 35 3.2 2023 2021 64%21%50%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%0100200300400500600 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022Q1-3%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022Q1-3 UV2 FSCPEFC ROHSREACH SBV PVC PET FSCPEFC ROHSREACHFDA IBH 1.6 2023 01 15 P.20 36 2023Q1-Q2 2022 11 20+1.8%+3.0%+1.3%+14.1%+4%2022 12 Arauco MAPA 156 UPM210 2023Q1 2023H1 5%Q1 20%CR5 40%700-800 600-700 568/451/37 2022 20 38 2022 20 PPPC PPPC 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11/-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 2023 01 15 P.21 39 UPM 2018-2019 4 2018-4.2%-1.0%&2018Q4/-12pct/-18pct PE 5X 2019Q1/2018 20.06%/25.24%/24.61%2019 5-2020 3 2019Q2 2019Q4-2020Q1 2019Q2-2020Q1/4%/10%/17%2020 4-2021 3 2020Q3 APP 2021Q1 10000 2021H1/+16.5pct/14.3pct 34.0%/19.9%2021 4-2021 11 2021Q2 2021 12 2021 2022/17.0%/4.9%-11.1%2022Q3/4pct/2pct 260-280 150 Arauco 156 2022 12 29 LD Celulose 50 2022Q1 UPM 210 2023Q1 Mets Group 89&2023Q3 2024 Suzano 220 2024 2552025 Paracel 150 2025 180 Eldorado 230 Paracel 150 1530 2022 1562023 299 3802021 Bracell 2021 9 260 2023 01 15 P.22 40 2018/Wind 1000/400/CR4 80%2019Q2-2020Q1 1000/400/2019 41 Wind 400500600700800900100011002018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11(/)(/)5000550060006500700075008000850090002018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11 010203040506070809010020701201702202703202018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11 PE TTM-15%-5%5%15%25%35%45%2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12021Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 1000 50-60%100%0.7 100 315 Q3。90%0.8 100 80 Q3。50%0.8 200-300 400 55%0.8 400-500 360 Q3。2023 01 15 P.23 4 4.1 2022-24+10.8%/+7.8%/+3.7%180.35/194.47/201.57 1 APP APP 2022 80 2024 100 2022-24+19.5%/+4.0%/+0.3%269/280/281 2022-10.0%/-5.0%/+2.0%+7.5%/-1.2%/+2.3%134.47/132.85/135.87 2 2022 9 45 2022-24+8.4%/+12.5%/+5.6%36.0/40.5/42.8 2022 2023+10.0%/+5.0%/+0.0%+19.2%/+18.1%/+5.6%18.77/22.17/23.40 3 45 6 100 2022-24+20.3%/+60.0%/+6.3%50/80/85+23.9%/+63.2%/+8.4%19.7/32.2/34.8 4 15 2022-24+23.8%/-3.0%/+1.0%6.49/6.30/6.36 2023 01 15 P.24 42 Wind APP 2020 APP 2022-24 0.7%/0.6%/0.6%3.50%/3.51%/3.51%3.60%/3.65%/3.70%7.8%2022 2023Q1-2 2022-24-58.7%/+80.1%/+25.5%7.04/12.68/15.92 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 97.40 139.82 162.76 180.35 194.47 201.57YOY 16.79%43.56%16.41%10.80%7.83%3.65%14.58%17.06%22.93%14.80%18.25%19.93%78.83 110.08 125.08 134.47 132.85 135.87YOY 20.87%39.65%13.63%7.50%-1.20%2.27%80.93%78.73%76.85%74.56%68.32%67.41%175.93 226.96 225.22 269.02 279.78 280.53YOY 31.26%29.01%-0.77%19.45%4.00%0.27%/4480.69 4850.24 5553.84 4998.46 4748.53 4843.50YOY-7.91%8.25%14.51%-10.00%-5.00%2.00%15.81%22.26%28.20%18.70%23.50%25.00%/708.40 1079.66 1566.18 934.71 1115.91 1210.88 6.03 9.77 15.74 18.77 22.17 23.40YOY-9.54%61.91%61.12%19.21%18.13%5.56%6.20%6.99%9.67%10.40%11.40%11.61%12.30 22.53 33.22 36.00 40.50 42.75YOY 7.42%83.17%47.45%8.37%12.50%5.56%/4906.10 4336.66 4738.65 5212.52 5473.14 5473.14YOY-15.79%-11.61%9.27%10.00%5.00%0.00%11.34%-1.78%4.84%3.00%9.00%10.00%/556.35-77.19 229.35 156.38 492.58 547.31 4.51 5.72 5.25 6.49 6.30 6.36YOY-14.73%27.01%-8.35%23.75%-3.00%1.00%4.63%4.09%3.22%3.60%3.24%3.15%11.99 17.01 12.21 14.39 14.39 14.39YOY-1.40%41.87%-28.22%17.85%0.00%0.00%/3757.96 3364.37 4295.74 4510.53 4375.21 4418.96YOY-13.52%-10.47%27.68%5.00%-3.00%1.00%9.65%-1.90%7.92%5.00%5.00%10.00%/362.64-63.92 340.22 225.53 218.76 441.90 6.79 13.15 15.90 19.70 32.15 34.84YOY 43.39%93.79%20.90%23.92%63.20%8.38%6.97%9.40%9.77%10.92%16.53%17.29%22.27 42.12 41.56 50.00 80.00 85.00YOY 89.86%89.13
