深度报告-20230209-国盛证券-申菱环境-301018.SZ-传统主业稳健_把握产业趋势延展业务边界_33页_5mb.pdf
|2023 02 09 301018.SZ+25%2021/17.98/1.4 4 CAGR 17.18%/10.77%+ASP 2025 150 CAGR 88%2021 480+IPO+2022-2024 2.3/3.5/4.91 64.1%/52.1%/40.1%2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1,467 1,798 2,653 3,723 5,047 yoy%8.0 22.6 47.5 40.3 35.5 125 140 230 350 491 yoy%22.8 12.6 64.1 52.1 40.1 EPS/0.52 0.58 0.96 1.46 2.04%13.6 9.9 14.1 17.7 20.0 P/E 76.6 68.0 41.4 27.2 19.4 P/B 10.7 6.6 5.9 4.9 3.9 Wind 2023 2 8 2 8()39.75()9,540.40()240.01(%)35.58 30()3.34 S0680521080001 S0680122070003-46%-23%0%23%46%69%91%114%2022-02 2022-06 2022-09 300 2023 02 09 P.2 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1656 1996 3721 4965 6673 1467 1798 2653 3723 5047 338 296 1201 1686 2285 1020 1300 1915 2623 3519 669 803 1369 1679 2452 9 9 19 25 32 26 23 49 52 84 124 142 183 258 350 32 75 83 139 162 98 103 170 238 323 439 628 849 1238 1518 62 76 114 161 222 153 171 171 171 171 14 11 9 47 70 898 1238 1345 1464 1579-6 4 1-6-5 0 1 0 0 0 18 19 23 22 20 266 269 498 708 908 0 0 0 0 0 153 151 170 193 198-1-2-1-1-1 478 818 676 563 472 1 0 0 0 0 2554 3235 5066 6430 8251 140 162 264 398 555 1202 1315 2999 4065 5456 1 2 1 1 1 345 282 1450 2332 3089 2 6 3 4 4 522 617 1060 1238 1845 139 157 262 396 553 334 416 489 496 522 18 15 33 47 64 461 476 437 397 353 121 143 229 348 488 284 275 237 197 153-3 2-1-2-2 177 200 200 200 200 125 140 230 350 491 1663 1791 3436 4462 5809 EBITDA 192 210 331 522 729 1 4 3 1-1 EPS/0.52 0.58 0.96 1.46 2.04 180 240 240 240 240 320 703 703 703 703 390 497 655 896 1234 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 890 1440 1627 1967 2444 2554 3235 5066 6430 8251%8.0 22.6 47.5 40.3 35.5%17.9 15.5 63.1 50.8 39.4%22.8 12.6 64.1 52.1 40.1%30.5 27.7 27.8 29.5 30.3%8.5 7.8 8.7 9.4 9.7 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE%13.6 9.9 14.1 17.7 20.0 196 38-90-136 146 ROIC%8.7 7.6 7.4 8.8 9.8 121 143 229 348 488 23 27 30 48 66%65.1 55.4 67.8 69.4 70.4 14 11 9 47 70%52.6 32.2 45.7 56.3 50.2 1 2 1 1 1 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 22-155-359-580-479 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 14 11 0 0 0-312-366-138-168-181 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 313 367 107 119 114 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 0 0 0 0 0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1 1-31-49-67 212 288-35-93-123 0.52 0.58 0.96 1.46 2.04 100-63 0 0 0 0.82 0.16-0.37-0.57 0.61 200-8-39-40-44 3.71 6.00 6.78 8.19 10.18 0 60 0 0 0 0 383 0 0 0 P/E 76.6 68.0 41.4 27.2 19.4-87-83 4-53-79 P/B 10.7 6.6 5.9 4.9 3.9 96-39-262-397-158 EV/EBITDA 52.2 47.6 31.1 20.4 14.8 Wind 2023 2 8 2023 02 09 P.3 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 1.3.8 2.9 2.1+.9 2.2.11 2.3.14 3.17 3.1.17 3.2.19 3.3.23 3.4.26 4.29 4.1.29 4.2.31.32 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.7 5 2022 5.7 6 2018-2022Q1-Q3.8 7 2018-2022Q1-Q3.8 8 2018-2022Q1-Q3.8 9 2018-2022Q1-Q3.8 10 2017-2021.9 11.9 12.10 13.10 14 2010-2021.11 15 2021.11 16.11 17.12 18 2017-2021.13 19 2017-2021.13 20 40%.13 21 PUE.13 22.14 23.15 2023 02 09 P.4 24.15 25.16 26 ROE.16 27.16 28 85%/%.17 29 20 60%/%.17 30.18 31 2021 36 19.7%.18 32.18 33 2020 24.1%.19 34.20 35.20 36.21 37.22 38.22 39 2021-2030 GWh.23 40 2021-2025 GWh.23 41 2020 24.1%.24 42 2020 24.1%.25 43+.25 44.26 45 2018-2022.27 46 2018-2022.27 47 IPO.27 48.28 49.30 50%.30 51 PE-Band.31 52 Wind PE 2023 2 3.31 2023 02 09 P.5 1.1.1 1 2000 2002 2 2011 3 2021 2022 8 1 2020 62.73%2 2021/30.7%/25.7%/22.38%/4.92%3 40%2021 25.45%1 1 2019 2021 50%2 30%3 2023 02 09 P.6 2 Wind 1.2 30%2022 11 30.6%22.95%7.65%3 Wind 2022 11 2023 02 09 P.7 4 2022 5 142 10.69/480 2022 2023 5 2022 5 142 480.00 2.00%10.69/2021 2022 40%100%2022 30%80%2021 2023 82%100%2023 62.5%80%2023 02 09 P.8 1.3 2018-2021/CAGR 17.18%/10.77%2022 52.38%/63.2%IPO 6 2018-2022Q1-Q3 7 2018-2022Q1-Q3 Wind Wind 30%2021 2.8pct 2022 2022 7.5%2022 9.07%0.73%8 2018-2022Q1-Q3 9 2018-2022Q1-Q3 Wind Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0246810121416182020182019202020212022Q1-Q3%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.620182019202020212022Q1-Q3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%20182019202020212022Q1-Q3%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%20182019202020212022Q1-Q3%2023 02 09 P.9 2.2.1+1 30 2021 114.7 2021 50.09 2 10 2017-2021 11/%2021 2021 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%0204060801001201402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%0102030405060()2020 2021 2023 02 09 P.10 12 1 2 13 2023 02 09 P.11 1 2012-2021 CAGR 8.02%20%2 14 2010-2021 15 2021 16 2.2 30 50 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%01020304050602012201320142015201620172018201920202021()()yoy%1.10%10.40%10.60%12.00%15.70%18.80%22.30%23.30%24.30%31.80%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2023 02 09 P.12 34%5G 7%70 30%10%17 ICTresearch Wind 2021 520 CAGR 30%IT 2021 50.09 14.91%2023 02 09 P.13 18 2017-2021 19 2017-2021/%40%IT 2019 PUE 1.25 2022 6 2025 20 40%21 PUE PUE=/IT PUE 1 GPU+0%30%60%90%120%02004006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%01020304050602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 45%40%10%5%IT 52%67%77%38%26%17.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%PUE=1.92 PUE=1.5 PUE=1.3IT 设备 温控系统 配电 电源 照明 2023 02 09 P.14 22 2.3 1 IPD IPD 2+3 2022 454 139 311 4 21 2022 139 42/21/20 4 2023 02 09 P.15 23 2022 24+8 10 40 2023 02 09 P.16 25 0.6 ROE 26 ROE 27 Wind Wind-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.82017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 02 09 P.17 85%20 60%28 85%/%29 20 60%/%3.3.1-30 82%83%84%85%86%87%88%89%90%020040060080010001200140016002018 2019 2020 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01000020000300004000050000600002018 2019 2020 2023 02 09 P.18 30 2021 36 19.7%31 2021 36 19.7%32 2015 50%0%5%10%15%20%25%05101520253035402020 2021 yoy 2023 02 09 P.19 33 2020 24.1%365 365 3.2 ASP 2025 150 CAGR 88%2023 02 09 P.20 1 2 1-20-45 5%-95%2 5 34 35 1 67%2 3%3 B B 2023 02 09 P.21 36 GGII Wind 1 88%1 2 GWh 0.3 0.8-1 0.5 2 ASP 1 2 2023 02 09 P.22 37 2021 3.37 3 38 GGII 24 CAGR 88%Trendforce 2021 35GWh 2030 2023 02 09 P.23 1160GWh 2021-2030 CAGR 47.5%GGII 2021 24 88%2025 164.6 2021-2025 CAGR 88%39 2021-2030 GWh 40 2021-2025 GWh Trendforce GGII 3.3 2021 480 54%/29%/12%2021 11 Energy Efficiency 2021 2050 GMI Global Market Insight&PWC 2018 2021 480 2030 CAGR 6%2020 54.4%/29.3%/11.7%3565111187116002004006008001000120014002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2030E0204060801001201401601802021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E)2023 02 09 P.24 41 2020 24.1%Global Market Insight PWC 2020 24%2021 50 100%2020 24%2018 10.6%2020 Q1Q3 24.9%8.9%7.2%2023 02 09 P.25 42 2020 24.1%+2022 5 REpowerEU 5 1000 43+Wind EHPA IEA 2023 02 09 P.26&26.6%&CR3 40%&2020 26.6%8.5%5%13.1%/10.5%/10.0%CR3 33.6%44 3.4 2018-2021 91.45%90.23%95.7%2018-2021 91.21%100%2023 02 09 P.27 45 2018-2022 46 2018-2022 2022 IPO+IPO 1 2021 IPO 2021 7 4.43 2021 2023/11/1.1 2 2022 2022 4 8 6 10 6.5 2 5 3 47 IPO/0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 2023 02 09 P.28 2022 9 30 210 0.5 1 2 2022 9 30 2 0.56 1 44 2 2022 7 1 2 48 2022 9 30 2023 02 09 P.29 4.4.1 20222024 26.53/37.23/50.47 47.54%/40.35%/35.55%2022-2024 734.28/822.39/904.63 33.00%/12.00%/10.00%2022-2024 717.06/1219/1950.41 55.00%/70.00%/60.00%2022 VOCs 2022-2024 507.14/659.28/850.47 26.00%/30.00%/29.00%2022-2024 167.98/285.56/456.90 90.00%/70.00%/60.00%2022-2024 526.52/737.13/884.55 80.00%/40.00%/20.00%2023 02 09 P.30 49 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1467.26 1798.13 2652.98 3723.37 5046.96 yoy 8.03%22.55%47.54%40.35%35.55%30.50%27.71%27.84%29.54%30.28%1 467.51 552.09 734.28 822.39 904.63 yoy-0.10%18.09%33.00%12.00%10.00%25.51%18.40%19.80%23.00%24.00%2 404.66 462.62 717.06 1219.00 1950.41 yoy 4.38%14.32%55.00%70.00%60.00%32.03%31.81%32.40%32.50%32.60%3 323.57 402.49 507.14 659.28 850.47 yoy 19.36%24.39%26.00%30.00%29.00%30.60%30.73%29.40%31.00%32.00%4 58.74 88.41 167.98 285.56 456.90 yoy 11.59%50.51%90.00%70.00%60.00%30.19%28.04%25.70%25.80%25.90%5 212.77 292.51 526.52 737.13 884.55 yoy 18.99%37.48%80.00%40.00%20.00%38.52%34.54%32.00%32.10%32.20%20222024 27.84%/29.54%/30.28%1 2 3 50%2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 30.50%27.71%27.84%29.54%30.28%8.43%7.91%6.90%6.92%6.93%6.67%5.73%6.40%6.40%6.40%4.21%4.25%4.29%4.32%4.40%Wind 2022-2024 2.3/3.5/4.91 64.1%/52.1%/40.1%2023 02 09 P.31 4.2 PE-band PE 30-60 51 PE-Band Wind 2023 PE 37 2023 52 Wind PE 2023 2 3 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 85.01 75.33 65.21 45.26 33.78 35.55 48.27 62.84 31.47 26.88 70.38 73.19 57.34 33.85 22.66 63.65 65.59 61.79 36.86 27.77 72.88 64.72 39.28 25.98 18.59 Wind+2022-2024 2.3/3.5/4.91 64.1%/52.1%/40.1%2023 02 09 P.32 2023 02 09 P.33,6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
