深度报告-20230213-中航证券-铂科新材-300811.SZ-新能源领域景气高企_磁粉芯龙头厚积薄发_39页_9mb.pdf
1 指标 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E营业收入（百万元）497 726 1,076 1,414 1,902增速（%）23.42%46.11%48.25%31.37%34.56%归母净利润（百万元）107 120 190 266 392增速（%）25.93%12.90%57.80%40.07%47.40%每股收益（元）0.97 1.09 1.73 2.42 3.57市盈率（倍）86.99 77.05 48.83 34.86 23.65 “”-UPS Wind Wind 3.393.244.034.977.264.7248.2%-4.4%24.2%23.4%46.1%48.3%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0123456782017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0.69 0.690.851.071.200.7922.4%-0.3%22.6%25.9%12.9%50.3%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.42017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 Wind Wind 37%90%80%85%43%100%185%187%50%60%0%50%100%150%200%2020 2021H1 2021 2022H1 YOY&YOY UPS YOY93.8%97.1%96.6%96.9%96.7%96.1%4.2%1.1%2.1%2.1%1.9%1.85%1.5%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%1.75%0.5%0.8%0.9%0.7%0.6%0.3%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 39.8%40.8%42.2%38.9%33.9%35.7%20.4%21.3%21.0%21.4%16.6%16.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 Wind 9.4%11.4%11.0%9.0%8.5%8.7%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2021 2 10 2021 105.57 2,131.46 932.51 763.77 364.12 71.05 30%30%40%A B C D E 100%100%80%50%0%3.14 2.04 0.75 0.36 4.14 3.47-“”“”11,80014,00016,00025,000310003600046000510000%10%20%30%40%50%60%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY11,80014,00016,00025,0008,90111,45914,80923,36675.4%81.9%92.6%93.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002018 2019 2020 2021 1.05 14-125 1.6 60 1.5 14-160 0.75 14-550-0.45 900-10k 0.7 100k 1.2-1.5 3-100 /ChangsungCorp.Magnetics Wind 39.8%40.8%42.2%38.9%33.8%35.7%22.0%23.6%17.7%18.2%18.2%14.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2021 2021 2022E 2023E 2025E 2027E 2030E 1.17 1.18 1.28 1.39 1.56 1.65 2.39 2.66 2.79 3 3.2 3.5 1.17 1.17 1.48 1.48 1.8 1.9 55879510011087808590-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0204060801001202021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY YOY 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 55 87 95 100 110 13.9%59.3%8.7%5.3%10.0%380 380 380 380 380 2085 3321.58 3610 3800 4180 22940 36537 39710 41800 45980 54.88 87 80 85 90 13.9%59.3%-8.5%6.3%5.9%380 380 380 380 380 2085 3321.58 3040 3230 3420 22940 36537 33440 35530 37620 129352689868107613130%40%80%120%160%200%02004006008001000120014002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E()46942594135827720%40%80%120%160%200%020040060080010002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 65 92%194 226%259 177%689 93%1:2,7 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 129 352 689 868 1076 1313 7%173%96%26%24%22%86%83%78%86%85%87%112 292 537 746 915 1142 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.25 1.4 17 61 152 121 161 171 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 1218 3554 8927 11611 16113 21109 2.79 3.76 2.66 2.10 1.85 1.70 46 94 259 413 582 772 12%103%177%59%41%33%14 14 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 647 1310 3656 5868 8317 11120iFinD iFinD 8,33610,70812,20714,16016,70920,0510%5%10%15%20%25%30%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 8,336 10,708 12,207 14,160 16,709 20,051 20%28%14%16%18%20%0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 20,841 26,770 30,518 35,401 41,773 50,128 1041181341531750%5%10%15%20%040801201602002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E UPS()()YOY 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 104 118 134 153 175 11%13%14%14%14%3.1 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.2Wind iFinD 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 15983 21928 30699 38067 48345 3.09 3.30 3.50 3.71 3.93 1.89 2.19 2.28 2.33 2.40 1.20 1.11 1.21 1.38 1.53指标 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E营业收入（百万元）497 726 1,076 1,414 1,902增速（%）23.42%46.11%48.25%31.37%34.56%归母净利润（百万元）107 120 190 266 392增速（%）25.93%12.90%57.80%40.07%47.40%每股收益（元）0.97 1.09 1.73 2.42 3.57市盈率（倍）86.99 77.05 48.83 34.86 23.65iFinD 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E300811.SZ 84.3 92.7 55.4 0.77 195 292 398 47.6 31.7 23.3 8.25600114.SH 10.6 65.2 186.0 0.08 158 276 372 41.2 23.6 17.5 2.64002056.SZ 21.5 349.7 24.2 0.50 1,609 2,013 2,470 21.7 17.4 14.2 4.78688190.SH 92.2 110.6 60.8 0.58 223 350 457 49.6 31.6 24.2 5.69600330.SH 13.6 167.6 23.2 0.38 682 696 877 24.6 24.1 19.1 3.09300835.SZ 46.0 55.3 48.2 3.63 145 219 299 38.2 25.2 18.5 5.570.99 37.1 25.6 19.5 5.00PEG PEPB PE(TTM)iFinD 资产负债表 利润表会计年度 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 会计年度 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E货币资金 366.82 211.91 117.88 322.83 424.11 570.69 营业收入 402.54 496.83 725.89 1076.10 1413.72 1902.30应收票据及账款 212.34 295.97 400.85 530.68 615.84 719.23 营业成本 232.72 303.36 480.19 701.51 887.09 1160.17预付账款 1.51 5.76 9.33 13.27 17.04 22.41 税金及附加 3.82 4.26 5.34 7.53 9.61 12.56其他应收款 3.22 3.29 3.45 5.31 6.97 9.38 销售费用 12.24 8.17 12.50 18.29 24.32 33.29存货 62.93 65.31 117.49 163.37 199.29 254.28 管理费用 29.38 32.86 41.88 53.81 72.10 97.02其他流动资产 27.30 151.47 57.65 321.52 328.27 338.05 研发费用 23.71 26.74 42.42 57.03 76.34 104.63流动资产总计 674.13 733.71 706.65 1356.97 1591.53 1914.04 财务费用 2.56 3.55 7.49 17.26 34.27 35.39长期股权投资 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 资产减值损失 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00固定资产 166.03 184.80 298.44 535.67 550.53 656.26 信用减值损失-2.26-2.98-5.85-9.68-14.14-20.93 在建工程 30.80 59.26 21.87 105.45 154.76 104.08 其他经营损益 0.00 0.00-0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00无形资产 27.50 25.13 34.34 39.73 53.73 77.23 投资收益 0.20 7.95 4.36 4.56 4.87 5.13长期待摊费用 0.92 2.07 7.41 3.71 0.00 0.00 公允价值变动损益 0.00 0.81 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00其他非流动资产 24.44 70.62 146.08 191.71 226.81 246.31 资产处置收益 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00非流动资产合计 249.69 341.88 508.14 876.26 985.83 1083.88 其他收益 2.31 2.90 5.02 3.22 4.74 5.37资产总计 923.81 1075.59 1214.79 2233.23 2577.36 2997.92 营业利润 98.36 126.58 139.61 218.76 305.47 448.83短期借款 67.40 64.92 30.86 758.73 822.66 835.82 营业外收入 1.08 0.24 0.02 0.10 0.12 0.15应付票据及账款 54.51 64.92 78.15 105.71 126.38 152.57 营业外支出 2.00 2.54 3.05 3.20 3.50 3.70其他流动负债 27.22 31.87 104.08 152.20 193.45 253.94 其他非经营损益 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00流动负债合计 149.12 161.72 213.09 1016.63 1142.49 1242.34 利润总额 97.44 124.28 136.58 215.66 302.09 445.28长期借款 0.00 50.00 10.29 25.08 23.48 20.13 所得税 12.84 17.75 16.31 25.88 36.25 53.43其他非流动负债 1.02 0.97 0.67 0.69 0.82 0.98 净利润 84.60 106.53 120.27 189.78 265.83 391.85非流动负债合计 1.02 50.97 10.96 25.77 24.30 21.11 少数股东损益 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00负债合计 150.15 212.68 224.04 1042.40 1166.79 1263.45 归母净利润 84.60 106.53 120.27 189.78 265.83 391.85股本 57.60 57.60 103.68 104.25 104.25 104.25 EBITDA 120.59 151.39 174.56 280.30 392.78 551.62资本公积 421.49 421.49 399.11 441.75 441.75 441.75 NOPLAT 87.73 111.04 129.88 208.07 299.37 426.54留存收益 294.57 383.82 487.96 644.83 864.57 1188.47 EPS(元)0.77 0.97 1.09 1.73 2.42 3.57归属母公司权益 773.66 862.91 990.75 1190.83 1410.57 1734.47少数股东权益 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 主要财务比率股东权益合计 773.66 862.91 990.75 1190.83 1410.57 1734.47 会计年度 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E负债和股东权益合计 923.81 1075.59 1214.79 2233.23 2577.36 2997.92 成长能力营收增长率 24.18%23.42%46.11%48.25%31.37%34.56%现金流量表 营业利润增长率 26.47%28.69%10.29%56.69%39.63%46.93%会计年度 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E EBIT增长率 18.01%27.83%12.71%61.67%44.41%42.91%税后经营利润 84.60 106.53 120.27 185.66 260.35 385.73 EBITDA增长率 19.25%25.54%15.31%60.57%40.13%40.44%折旧与摊销 20.60 23.56 30.49 47.38 56.43 70.95 归母净利润增长率 22.63%25.93%12.90%57.80%40.07%47.40%财务费用 2.56 3.55 7.49 17.26 34.27 35.39 经营现金流增长率 70.36%-27.57%-227.49%415.64%99.74%43.97%投资损失-0.20-7.95-4.36-4.56-4.87-5.13 盈利能力营运资金变动-64.39-93.58-213.41-109.71-71.35-89.25 毛利率 42.19%38.94%33.85%34.81%37.25%39.01%其他经营现金流 5.11 2.86 14.93 4.68 6.23 6.95 净利率 21.02%21.44%16.57%17.64%18.80%20.60%经营性现金净流量 48.28 34.97-44.58 140.71 281.06 404.64 营业利润率 24.43%25.48%19.23%20.33%21.61%23.59%资本支出 19.69 81.54 113.39 399.98 151.87 165.84 ROE 10.93%12.35%12.14%15.94%18.85%22.59%长期投资 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ROA 9.16%9.90%9.90%8.50%10.31%13.07%其他投资现金流-13.11-120.99 111.47-271.48-9.88 1.30 ROIC 21.27%19.21%16.91%20.98%17.88%21.80%投资性现金净流量-32.80-202.53-1.92-671.46-161.75-164.54 估值倍数短期借款 13.40-2.47-34.07 727.87 63.93 13.16 P/E 109.54 86.99 77.05 48.83 34.86 23.65长期借款 0.00 50.00-39.71 14.79-1.60-3.35 P/S 23.02 18.65 12.77 8.61 6.55 4.87普通股增加 14.40 0.00 46.08 0.57 0.00 0.00 P/B 11.98 10.74 9.35 7.78 6.57 5.34资本公积增加 316.11 0.00-22.38 42.64 0.00 0.00 股息率 0.19%0.17%0.22%0.36%0.50%0.73%其他筹资现金流-7.77-34.38-7.13-50.17-80.36-103.33 EV/EBIT 21.97 32.32 70.74 41.86 29.17 20.44筹资性现金净流量 336.14 13.15-57.22 735.70-18.02-93.52 EV/EBITDA 18.22 27.29 58.38 34.79 24.98 17.81现金流量净额 351.68-154.91-104.14 204.95 101.28 146.58 EV/NOPLAT 25.04 37.21 78.46 46.86 32.78 23.03
