深度报告-20230216-国盛证券-华宝新能-301327.SZ-十年一剑_便携储能龙头蓄势腾飞_33页_2mb (1).pdf
|2023 02 16 301327.SZ 2011 ODM 2015 2017-2021 CAGR 81%154%2016-2021 CAGR 148%184%1 9.5%53%2021 2.3%26 15.9%2 2021 3.0%2026 19.4%3 2021 0.7%2026 8.3%2026 900 2021-2026 CAGR 52.3%+Jackery 2021 86.9%2020 2021 17.4%160-2160Wh M2C 2022-2024 37.8/62.0/95.5 3.8/7.3/11.5 PE 46.1x/23.9x/15.2x 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1,070 2,315 3,783 6,199 9,547 yoy%235.4 116.4 63.4 63.9 54.0 234 279 379 732 1,151 yoy%541.4 19.5 35.9 92.8 57.3 EPS/2.44 2.91 3.95 7.62 11.99%103.2 54.6 42.6 45.1 41.5 P/E 74.8 62.7 46.1 23.9 15.2 P/B 77.2 34.2 19.6 10.8 6.3 Wind 2023 2 13 2 13()182.29()17,499.84()96.00(%)24.24 30()0.86 S0680520030005 S0680522120002-34%-23%-11%0%11%23%34%46%2022-09 2023-01 300 2023 02 16 P.2 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 549 1249 1798 3335 5016 1070 2315 3783 6199 9547 233 447 769 1400 2420 470 1219 1999 3261 5004 67 74 156 221 360 3 4 7 11 17 16 26 42 69 103 227 565 984 1550 2387 27 50 76 130 187 45 95 189 279 430 201 632 734 1495 1925 23 65 113 174 267 4 20 20 20 20 19 46 91 144 213 32 156 166 184 209-6-17-27-44-68 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 0 0 0 12 31 42 60 83 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 20 123 123 124 125 0 0 0 0 0 581 1404 1964 3520 5224 277 315 428 825 1298 350 847 1004 1827 2381 0 0 0 0 0 14 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 260 702 876 1699 2252 277 315 428 825 1298 76 95 78 78 79 43 36 49 94 147 4 46 46 46 46 234 279 379 732 1151 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 46 46 46 46 234 279 379 732 1151 354 893 1049 1873 2427 EBITDA 272 312 421 808 1262 0 0 0 0 0 EPS 2.44 2.91 3.95 7.62 11.99 71 71 96 96 96 11 18 18 18 18 150 429 809 1540 2691 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 227 511 915 1647 2798 581 1404 1964 3520 5224(%)235.4 116.4 63.4 63.9 54.0(%)628.3 13.9 35.9 92.8 57.3(%)541.4 19.5 35.9 92.8 57.3(%)56.1 47.4 47.2 47.4 47.6(%)21.9 12.1 10.0 11.8 12.1 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE(%)103.2 54.6 42.6 45.1 41.5 171 135 425 806 1275 ROIC(%)95.1 43.9 37.5 41.3 38.6 234 279 379 732 1151 2 8 9 12 18(%)61.0 63.6 53.4 53.2 46.4 19 46 91 144 213(%)-96.8-67.2-76.7-81.0-84.2 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.1-82-202-53-83-107 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.2 0 4 0 0 0-16-57-19-30-42 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 15 57 11 18 24 22.6 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 0 0 0 0 0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5-1 0-9-12-18-58 16-84-144-213()2.44 2.91 3.95 7.62 11.99 5 36 0 0 0()1.79 1.40 4.43 8.39 13.28 0 0 0 0 0()2.36 5.33 9.28 16.90 28.89 46 0 25 0 0-1 7 0 0 0 P/E 74.8 62.7 46.1 23.9 15.2-109-28-108-144-213 P/B 77.2 34.2 19.6 10.8 6.3 86 68 322 631 1020 EV/EBITDA 63.5 54.9 39.9 20.0 12.0 Wind 2023 2 13 2023 02 16 P.3.5 1.1 ODM.5 1.2.6 1.3.8.11 2.1 90%.11 2.2 CR5 36%.13 2.3/.14 2.3.1.14 2.3.2.16 2.3.3 2026 8%.17 2.4.18 2.4.1.18 2.4.2 30.19 2.4.3.19 2.4.4.20 2.5 50%.20.21 3.1.21 3.2.24 3.2.1.27 3.2.2.28 3.3.29.30.32 1.5 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.9 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.10 12 23%2022 9.10 13.10 14.10 15.11 2023 02 16 P.4 16.11 17.11 18 2016-2026.12 19 2016-2026.12 20 2020.12 21 2020.13 22 2016-2021.13 23.13 24 2020.14 25 2020.14 26.15 27.15 28.16 29.16 30.16 31 2016 2021 5.17 32.17 33.18 34.18 35 1990-2019.19 36.19 37.20 38 2016-2021.20 39.21 40.22 41.23 42.24 43.24 44 2021.25 45.25 46.26 47.26 48.26 49 B2C.27 50.28 51.28 52.29 53.29 54.30 55.30 56.30 57.31 58 2023.02.13.32 2023 02 16 P.5 1.1 ODM ODM 2011 ODM 2015 2016 M2C 1 Jackery 2011 2015 2016 IF 2018 CES 2020 CES 2021 2 IF ADesign Award&Competition 4 2023 02 16 P.6 2 Jackery Powerbar 83 Explorer 240 Explorer 300 Explorer 500 Explorer 1000 Explorer 1500 80 300 500 1000 1800 2200 80Wh-2000Wh 100W-2200W AC/USB/SolarSaga 60 SolarSaga 100 SolarSaga 200 60W 100W 200W 60W-200W Jackery Mini 3350mAh Jackery Bolt 6000mAh Jackery Giant+12000mAh Jackery Thunder X 20100mAh 6-5000 6S-10000 7-10000 3000mAh-20000mAh 1.2 7 3 4 2019 6 2022 9 19 42.95%20.40%63.36%4 100%2023 02 16 P.7 3 Wind 3 8 8 4 100%2014 10 11 100%2015 9 30 100%2021 1 18 2021 Jackery US 100%2012 9 27 Jackery Jackery Japan 100%2019 9 20 Jackery Generark US 100%2020 6 15 Jackery Australia 100%2018 5 9 Jackery Generark Japan 100%2017 5 19 Jackery UK 100%2020 12 10 Jackery Korea 100%2022 2 24 Jackery DE 100%2021 9 10 2021 4 233.08 2023 02 16 P.8 5/2017.8.14 14 50.78 2.4 2019.12.2 12 23 2.4 2020.12.20 17 81.3 10 2019.12.19 78 2.4 233.08 1.3 98%2021 98.2%6 Wind 2017-2021 CAGR 81.1%154.1%2017-2021 CAGR 81.1%154.1%2022H1 13.2 35.8%1.6 2.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2023 02 16 P.9 7 8 Wind Wind 2017 30%19%-25%2021 47.2%38.3%2019 47%9 10 Wind Wind CAGR 167.1%23%2018-2021 CAGR 95.2%2022 9 254 31 20-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 32.1%30.3%36.4%29.4%33.3%31.9%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 34.1%33.0%48.7%56.1%47.4%47.0%2.9%1.6%11.4%21.9%12.1%12.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2023 02 16 P.10 11 12 23%2022 9 Wind 2019-2022H1 1.27 1.57 1.47 1.55 0.67 0.99 0.73 0.71 2019-2022H1 47.4%36.7%50.6%54.3%2022H1 60%96%2019-2022H1 75.4%61.0%63.6%60.0%2019-2022H1 98.9%98.7%94.9%96.1%A 13 14 Wind Wind 2020 16 2022H1 187.7 2021 64.7 2020 16 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%5%0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.72018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1,18.6%,10.1%,35.3%,22.9%,13.0%1.77 1.61 1.27 1.57 1.47 1.55 1.17 1.17 0.67 0.99 0.73 0.71 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 54.1%60.5%75.4%61.0%63.6%60.0%100.0%98.5%98.9%98.7%94.9%96.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2023 02 16 P.11 15 16 Wind Wind 2.1 90%/100Wh-3000Wh AC DC Type-C USB PD 17 2016-2021 CAGR 148%184%74.5131.7112.9123.0187.70204060801001201401601802002018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 40.922.715.911.013.40510152025303540452018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2023 02 16 P.12 2016 5.2 2021 483.8 CAGR 147.6%2016 0.6 2021 111.3 CAGR 184.2%2026 3110 882.3 2837 18 2016-2026 19 2016-2026 2020 76.9%2020 47.3%100 80 10 10 29.6%61 60 50 5 20 2020 90%2016 4.8 92.3%2021 90.7%5.2 10.1 35.886.0208.8483.8840.81251.81667.22242.03110.00%50%100%150%200%250%300%05001000150020002500300035002016 2018 2020 2022E 2024E 2026E 0.6 1.2 4.7 12.442.6111.3208.1329.7458.3636.2882.30%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%010020030040050060070080090010002016 2018 2020 2022E 2024E 2026E,47.3%,29.6%,5.5%,5.1%,4.9%,7.6%2023 02 16 P.13 438.8 GOAL ZERO 21 2020 22 2016-2021 2.2 CR5 36%GOAL ZERO 23 300866 2011 688063 2009 8.5%300464 1994+2019 GOAL ZERO 2009 6 ECO FLOW 2017 TOP BLUETTI 2013/2020 CR5 36%50%16.6%21.0%2020 CR5 36.0%16.6%,91.9%,3.2%,2.1%,2.8%84%85%86%87%88%89%90%91%92%93%94%95%0501001502002503003504004505002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2023 02 16 P.14 Goal Zero 2020 CR5 50.3%21.0%24 2020 25 2020 2.3/2.3.1 1 Outdoor Foundation 48%2020 2020 1013 5 OIA 2017 1.45 2020 1.61 49%53%2020 4800 15%1013 5,16.6%,6.3%Goal Zero,5.6%,5.3%,2.2%,64.0%,21.0%,10.2%Goal Zero,9.5%,7.0%,2.6%,49.7%2023 02 16 P.15 26 2025 525 312 Statista 2020 351 38.4%2025 525 2020 207 25.7%2025 312 27 Statista 2 1.3 9.5%53%2025 1354 2011 2021 3.62 80%2020 2020 2021 8269 20704 Statista 2020 899 21.0%2025 1354 3203348837123856392341974824174 18630823516810139%6%4%2%7%15%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%01000200030004000500060002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 35152520731201002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023 02 16 P.16 28 29 Statista 2021 2.3%2026 15.9%2021 483.8 43.6%2021 210.8 1.5 2.3%2026 1.93 15.9%30 2.3.2 20 80 5 2000-2019 7348 123 40.3 1980-1999 2021 446 2019-2021 5 160 199 225 430 6179281002138422908269207040%50%100%150%200%250%300%05000100001500020000250002011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 8991354020040060080010001200140016002017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2.3%4.2%6.8%9.5%12.5%15.9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%05001000150020002500300035002021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 02 16 P.17 31 2016 2021 5 2021 3.0%2026 19.4%2021 41.5%201.1 1.1 3.0%2026 1155 1.4 19.4%32 2.3.3 2026 8%2021 0.7%2026 8.3%2021 1%0.7%2026 600 8%17714293227051015202530352016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3.0%5.8%9.2%12.7%16.0%19.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%0500100015002000250030002021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 02 16 P.18 33 2.4 2.4.1 3kW 2-8kW 100-3000Wh 1000Wh 3000 0.5 2kW 2000 0.7 34 1-3KW 2-8KW 2 1000Wh/3000 2000 0.5 1L 10kWh 0.7 500 80%10000 30000 721201952703756000.7%1.5%2.6%3.9%5.6%8.3%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%01002003004005006007002021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 02 16 P.19 2.4.2 30 30 IEA 1990 9702.2TWh 2019 22847.7TWh CAGR 3.0%1832.85KWh 2019 2950.87KWh CAGR 1.7%35 1990-2019 IEA 2.4.3 2016-2021 500-1000Wh 1000Wh 13.5 6.5pcts 100-500Wh 2021 50%500-1000Wh 1000Wh 2016 26.3%3.8%2021 39.8%10.3%5 13.5 6.5pcts 36 050010001500200025003000350005000100001500020000250001974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 TWh kWh/51.6%49.7%48.6%46.3%45.1%43.6%38.9%39.5%40.4%41.9%42.2%41.5%9.5%10.8%11.0%11.8%12.7%14.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2023 02 16 P.20 2.4.4 2016-2021 40%2016 51.6%2021 8.0pcts 43.6%38.9%2.6pcts 41.5%2021 80%2019 57.8%2020 83.5%37 38 2016-2021 2.5 50%2026 900 2021-2026 CAGR 52.3%2021-2026 484 841 1252 1667 2242 3110 2021 2300/2022-2026 5%2021-2026 111.3 203.1 317.5 443.8 626.8 912.9 CAGR 52.3%51.6%49.7%48.6%46.3%45.1%43.6%38.9%39.5%40.4%41.9%42.2%41.5%9.5%10.8%11.0%11.8%12.7%14.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 38.0%43.0%45.0%57.8%83.5%86.2%62.0%57.0%55.0%42.2%16.5%13.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2023 02 16 P.21 39 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 211 346 532 712 997 1355 345 651 1088 1596 2250 3069 15000 15500 16000 16800 18000 19300 2.3%4.2%6.8%9.5%12.5%15.9%201 375 525 685 870 1155 330 667 1104 1588 2080 2716 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 14000 3.0%5.8%9.2%12.7%16.0%19.4%72 120 195 270 375 600 105 225 390 585 840 1245 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000 0.7%1.5%2.6%3.9%5.6%8.3%484 841 1252 1667 2242 3110 780 1543 2582 3769 5170 7030 2300 2415 2536 2663 2796 2935 111.3 203.1 317.5 443.8 626.8 912.9 82.4%56.3%39.8%41.2%45.7%3.1 160-2160Wh 2160Wh 8 90 2.5 2023 02 16 P.22 40 1 Explorer 240 2018 6 1 240Wh 2 200W 400W 3 1 60W 3KG 3.5/4/15 2 Explorer 160 2018 8 1 160Wh 2 100W 150W 3 LED 2 3 Explorer 500 2019 7 1 518Wh 2 500W 1000W 3 1 100W 6KG 7.5 9 30 4 Explorer 1000 2020 3 1 1002Wh 2 1000W 2000W 3 2000W 2 100W 10KG 13 17 57 50 5 Explorer 1500 2021 3 1 1534Wh 2 1800W 3600W 3 4 100W QC3.0 TYPE-CPD 60W 16KG 68 21 6 Explorer 1800 2021 10 1 1879.2Wh 2 2200W 4400W 3 QC3.0 TYPE-CPD 60W 19.6KG 90 41-69 7 Explorer 2000Pro 2022 5 1 2160Wh 2 2200W 4400W 3 2.5 2 TYPE-CPD 100W 19.6KG 90 2.5 2022 9 167 25 87 6 2023 02 16 P.23 41 10%40-2060 IF CES A ADesign Award&Competition 21 2023 02 16 P.24 42 3-20kWh 43 3-20KWh 3.2 Jackery Google 2020 JVC Canon Harbor Freight Tools Home Depot Lowes Sams Club 2021 10.4%2023 02 16 P.25 44 2021 JVC 1.28 5.51%JVC&2019 Home Depot 0.33 1.44%9 2021 Harbor Freight Tools 0.33 1.43%1977 1200 4000 80%DIYER 2021 Lowes 0.25 1.09%2200 2020 900 2021 Kashima Trading Company 0.21 0.92%2017 2.41 10.40%2019-2021 67.8%83.5%86.9%2019 2020 ODM JVC 45 2019 2020 2021 B2C 2.15 67.8%8.87 83.0%19.09 83.0%B2B-0.06 0.5%0.88 3.8%2.15 67.8%8.93 83.5%19.97 86.9%ODM 0.85 26.9%1.45 13.6%1.53 6.7%0.07 2.3%0.26 2.4%0.55 2.4%0.09 3.0%0.05 0.4%0.94 4.1%1.02 32.2%1.76 16.5%3.02 13.2%3.17 100.0%10.69 100.0%22.99 100.0%2019-2021 87.3%90.1%92.6%2021 48.4%35.3%2019 12.7%2021 7.4%2023 02 16 P.26 46 2019 2020 2021 46.2%44.1%51.2%45.7%42.6%48.4%39.8%45.7%35.3%39.7%45.7%35.3%1.0%0.2%5.8%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%12.7%9.9%7.4%2021 88.4%2019 2021 144%66%75%2019-2021 67.5%85.6%88.4%47 B2C B2B 48-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%2019 2020 2021 2023 02 16 P.27 3.2.1 1 2019-2021 67.5%85.6%88.4%B2C Jackery US Jackery Japan B2C 49 B2C FBA FBM B2C FBA FBA B2B Home Depot Lowe s ODM ODM 2019 JVC ODM ODM JVC Kashima Trading Company 2 2019-2021 69.9%64.7%68.3%B2C POP B2B FCS FCS ODM 2019-2021 3.84%3.49%2.36%2023 02 16 P.28 3.2.2 2018 97%2020 2021 17.4%50 Prime Day 2019-2021 71.7%69.2%58.5%51 9.02%17.37%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018201920202021 9.6%10.7%17.0%18.8%20.2%24.5%27.3%33.5%25.2%44.4%35.6%33.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2023 02 16 P.29 3.3 M2C M2C Manufacturers to Consumer M2C SMT PCBA SMT 2019 2021 26.6 36.2 81.5 2020 2021 1.98 52 2019 2020 2021 26.6 24.6 92.4%36.2 39.5 109.0%81.5 83.5 102%86.5 33.2 38.3%-0.6-2019-2021 1000Wh 2019 100-1000Wh 91.5%2021 1000Wh 55.5%100-1000Wh 44.5%100Wh 53 2021 1000Wh 500Wh 1000Wh 100Wh 500Wh 100Wh 56.3%51.9%39.8%-11.0%100Wh 1.5%38.1%55.5%50.4%39.2%22.5%41.2%22.2%22.0%7.0%0.6%0.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 100Wh 100Wh 500Wh 500Wh 1000Wh 1000Wh 2023 02 16 P.30 54 2020 2022H1 47.0%31.9%55 56 Wind Wind 2021 2.0 2022-2024 2022-2024 20%28.5%2021 66.4 2022-2024 60%60%50%106.2 169.9 254.8 2021 2760/5%2022-2024 2898 3043 3195/2022-2024 30.8 51.7 81.4 49.0%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 2021 1000Wh 500Wh 1000Wh100Wh 500Wh 100Wh0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2023 02 16 P.31 2021 31.6 2022-2024 50.6 80.9 121.4 2022-2024 1300 1200 1100/2022-2024 6.6 9.7 13.4 40.0%57 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 66.4 106.2 169.9 254.8/2760 2898 3043 3195 18.4 30.8 51.7 81.4 YOY 67.7%68.0%57.5%49.5%49.0%49.0%49.0%31.6 50.6 80.9 121.4/1390 1300 1200 1100 4.4 6.6 9.7 13.4 YOY 49.6%47.7%37.5%40.1%40.0%40.0%40.0%0 YOY 8.5%0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 YOY 20.0%20.0%20.0%28.5%28.5%28.5%28.5%23.2 37.8 62.0 95.5 YOY 63%64%54%47.4%47.2%47.4%47.6%2.8 3.8 7.3 11.5 YOY 35.9%92.8%57.3%12.1%10.0%11.8%12.1%Wind 2022-2024 37.8 62.0 95.5 47.2%47.4%47.6%3.8 7.3 11.5 10.0%11.8%12.1%2023 2 13 2022-2024 57.9x/29.5x/21.3x 2022-2024 PE 46.1x/23.9x/15.2x 2023 02 16 P.32 58 2023.02.13 PE 2022E PE 2023E PE 2024E 300866.SZ 266 22.4 18.7 15.6 688063.SH 507 45.9 20.9 14.7 300763.SZ 664 61.5 31.0 21.4 300438.SZ 345 52.0 27.3 18.8 688390.SH 469 107.9 49.5 36.1 57.9 29.5 21.3 301327.SZ 175 46.1 23.9 15.2 Wind Wind 2021 48.4%2023 02 16 P.33“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033