20230129-国海证券-中小盘行业周报_禾赛科技美股冲刺IPO_特斯拉2023年冲击180万辆交付目标_24页_1mb.pdf
2023 01 29 S0350521120005 S0350122030040 Table_Title IPO 2023 180 1M 3M 12M 6.78%5.69%-12.17%300 9.21%11.36%-13.31%-*2023-01-17-*2022-12-13*2022-07-22 12*2023-01-21 2023*2023-01-20 1 IPO 2014 10 2016 2021 1 2023 1 17 2022 12 31 10 2022 ADAS 6.2 2022 2021 60%ASIC IPO 60%40%2 2022 2023 180 2023 1 25 2022Q4 2022 2022 814.62+51.35%125.56+127.50%2022 190 136.96+47%131.39+40%30.75 Autopilot 9.6 50%2023 180 2023 36 100GWh 4680 Semi Cybertruck Hardware 4.0 2023 2024 Dojo 2023 2023 3 1 3+2023 1 18+2025 2020 100-33.52%-22.35%-11.17%0.00%300 2 2023/01/20 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E 688167.SH 107.50 1.00 1.60 2.26 107.50 67.29 47.50 688048.SH 105.82 1.13 0.99 1.56 93.65 106.70 67.99 603297.SH 94.66 2.37 2.40 3.20 39.94 39.50 29.57 300627.SZ 29.84 0.82 0.73 0.98 36.39 40.64 30.41 300680.SZ 23.87 0.48 0.79 1.39 49.73 30.23 17.19 601137.SH 18.45 0.39 0.82 1.07 116.26 22.43 17.23 688295.SH 45.34 0.35 0.65 1.00 130.93 70.10 45.40 000420.SZ 4.83-0.06 0.02 0.10-319.87 48.99 Wind Wind 200 2021 366044 44.9%GGII 2021 18623 87.62%20.39 76.84%2026 10 2023 01 16 2023 01 20 A 7.98%5.84%5.43%-0.80%-0.72%-0.43%60.96%43.99%37.72%33.36%32.62%1 2 Pre-A 3 2.4 4 5 2022 EV 10%6“”P7 7 8 8 9“”10 85 3 1.5 1.1 IPO.5 1.2 2022 2023 180.7 1.3“+”.13 2.15 3.18 4.20 5.22 6.22 4 1 2019-2022Q1-Q3.5 2 2019-2022Q1-Q3.5 3.6 4.6 5 2022.7 6 2022.7 7 2022.8 8 2022.8 9 2022.8 10 2022.8 11.9 12 Model 3.10 13 Model Y.10 14 2022 10000.11 15 2022 12 Semi.11 16%.12 17 FSD Beta.12 18 GWh.12 19.12 20 Giga.12 21 2016-2021.14 22 2021.14 23 A 2023.01.16-2023.01.20.15 24 A 2022.01.20.15 25 A 2022.01.20.16 26 PE/PEG 2023.16 27 2022 01 14.16 28 A 20 2023.01.16-2023.01.20.17 29/.20 30/.20 31/.20 32 182mm,165m/.20 33/.21 34/.21 35/.21 1.9 2“+”.13 5 1 1.1 IPO IPO 2014 10 2016 2021 1 2023 1 17 2022 12 31 10 2022 ADAS 6.2 2022 2021 60%2022 2019/2020/2021 3.48/4.16/7.21 2022 7.93 72.7%3.6 1.65 2022 91.6%2.2%Pandar128 QT128 XT32 AT128 FT120 ADAS/1 2019-2022Q1-Q3 2 2019-2022Q1-Q3 3.484.167.217.9319.54%73.32%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01234567892019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3-1.2-1.07-2.45-1.65-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.502019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 6 3 4 7 2022 12 31 321 483 28 230 ASIC 2021 DMV 15 12 IPO 60%40%1.2 2022 2023 180 2022 814.62+51.35%125.56+127.50%2023 1 25 2022Q4 2022 1 2022 814.62+51%125.56+128%25.6%15.4%672.10 82.5%2 2022Q4 243.18+37%+13%36.87+59%12%23.8%15.2%202.41 83.2%5 2022 6 2022 187.56169.34214.54243.186%-10%27%13%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002503002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 33.1822.5932.9236.8743%-32%46%12%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05101520253035402022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 8 7 2022 8 2022 1 2022 136.96+47%131.39+40%2 2022Q4 43.97+44%+20%40.53+31%+18%Model 3/Y 41.91+43%+21%Model 3/Y 38.81+31%+19%9 2022 10 2022 155.14136.7177.85202.410501001502002503002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 29.1%25.0%25.1%23.8%17.7%13.3%15.3%15.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4%29.1224.2234.6041.91051015202530354045502022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4Model S/X Model 3/Y 29.69 29.5323.8532.5238.810510152025303540452021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4Model S/X Model 3/Y 9 11 Troy Teslike 1 Model S/X 10 Model 3/Y 55 2 Model 3/Y 75 3 Model Y 25 4 Model Y 25 Cybertruck 5 Semi 1 Model S/Model X 100,000 Model 3/Model Y 550,000 Model 3/Model Y 750,000 Model Y 250,000 Model Y 250,000 Cybertruck-Tesla Semi-TBD Roadster-Robotaxi&Others-10 12 Model 3 Tesla Inventory Charts 13 Model Y Tesla Inventory Charts 2022 0 2022 30.75 2022 10000 42000 Model Y Model S EuroNCAP ANCAP 2022 Autopilot 9.6 2022 Semi 11 14 2022 10000 15 2022 12 Semi 50%2023 180 1 3000 2023 1 1 24 Model Y 500 2 2022 4680 1000/36 100GWh 4680 Semi 3 FSD FSD Beta 40 FSD 1 1.6/&FSD Beta 4 Cybertruck Cybertruck Hardware 4.0 2023 2024 5 70 350 100 2022 6.5GWh+64%6 Dojo Dojo 6 GPU 1 GPU 2023 Dojo Nvidia H1 2023 3 1 12 16%17 FSD Beta 18 GWh 19 20 Giga 2023 1 25 13 1.3+2025 2023 1 18+2025 2020 10 100 200+2+5G 5G 5G 5G+14 2026 10 2021 366044 44.9%GGII 2021 18623 87.62%20.39 76.84%2016-2021 51.94%41.46%GGII 2015-2021 58 2018 14 2019 2020 7 2021 13 50.28 2022 6 GGII 2021 3C 30.31%27.20%2020 2021 2017 60%3 2018-2020 20%2021 87.62%36.17%2021 51.02%GGII 2026 10 21 2016-2021 22 2021 GGII GGII 3.66.288.9810.711.5320.3974.44%42.99%19.15%7.76%76.84%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%05101520252016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 30.31%27.20%10.82%14.58%3.62%1.32%12.15%3C 15 2 2023 01 16 2023 01 20 A 7.98%5.84%5.43%-0.80%-0.72%-0.43%60.96%43.99%37.72%33.36%32.62%23 A 2023.01.16-2023.01.20 Wind 24 A 2022.01.20 Wind 2023 01 20-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%2022-01-20 2022-04-20 2022-07-20 2022-10-20 2023-01-20 50 16 25 A 2022.01.20 Wind 2023 01 20 26 PE/PEG 2023 27 2022 01 14 Wind 2023 01 20 Wind 2023 01 20-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%22-01 22-02 22-03 22-04 22-05 22-06 22-07 22-08 22-09 22-10 22-11 22-12 23-01()()()00.20.40.60.811.21.40510152025303540 SW SW SW PE/PEG PE PEG 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%17 28 A 20 2023.01.16-2023.01.20 Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%ST 18 3 Pre-A Pre-A BV BV Pre-A Tier 1 2.4 7 2.4 2025 OEM Robotaxi 2022 EV 10%10%LMCAutomotive EV-V 780 68%19 P7 1 17 2023 1 17 14:00 G3i/P5/P7 14.89 15.69 20.99 G3i/P5/P7 2023 2023 1 17 8 1 18 2022 2022 96.9%93.4%8 25.6%2022 5.4 1.2 Industry and Energy Committee 24 67 1 EU Chips Act 10%20%85 26 85 2022 5 55.4 2023 432 2022 401 8%2022 432 401 2022 11 5 2025 2025 50 20 4 29/30/Wind LME Wind LME 31/32 182mm,165m/Wind LME Wind 182mm165m 02004006008001,0001,20002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002022-01-20 2022-05-20 2022-09-2000.20.40.60.811.22022-01-19 2022-05-19 2022-09-19 21 33/34/Wind 99.5%Wind 35/01020304050602022-01-20 2022-06-20 2022-11-20024681012142022-01-20 2022-06-20 2022-11-200501001502002503002022-01-20 2022-03-20 2022-05-20 2022-07-20 2022-09-20 2022-11-20 2023-01-20 T300 12K T300 48/50K T700 12K 22 5 2023/01/20 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E 688167.SH 107.50 1.00 1.60 2.26 107.50 67.29 47.50 688048.SH 105.82 1.13 0.99 1.56 93.65 106.70 67.99 603297.SH 94.66 2.37 2.40 3.20 39.94 39.50 29.57 300627.SZ 29.84 0.82 0.73 0.98 36.39 40.64 30.41 300680.SZ 23.87 0.48 0.79 1.39 49.73 30.23 17.19 601137.SH 18.45 0.39 0.82 1.07 116.26 22.43 17.23 688295.SH 45.34 0.35 0.65 1.00 130.93 70.10 45.40 000420.SZ 4.83-0.06 0.02 0.10-319.87 48.99 Wind 2023 01 20 Wind 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 2021 4 21 Wind 2 21 2020 wind 2 2018 4 2 5&,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%R3/
