2009 1210 2023 06 13 601138 AI 25.2 21.35 AI 40 2018 A 2022 5118.5 100 AI AI AI ChatGPT 2 1 AI AI AI&2021 615EFlops 2030 56ZFlops 20212030 CAGR 65%AI IDC 2022 1516 12%1216 AI 2026 1885 5 CAGR 6.8%1665 5 CAGR 10.2%+1 2 2022 115.88 2022 DC_MHS 3 AWS&AI 2022 1.2/Fii Cloud AI 2023-2025 250.15/282.52/319.74 2023 20 PE 25.2 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()511,850 574,213 660,489 758,629(%)16.4%12.2%15.0%14.9%()20,073 25,015 28,252 31,974(%)0.3%24.6%12.9%13.2%()1.01 1.26 1.42 1.61()21 17 15 13()3.3 2.8 2.3 2.0 2023 6 12 0755-82755859 S0360517100004 S0360521120002()1,986,289.39()1,979,879.72()4,240.73()4,227.04(%)48.56()6.65 12/21.35/8.16(12)-16%36%88%139%22/06 22/08 22/11 23/01 23/03 23/062022-06-132023-06-12 300 601138 2009 1210 AI&AI ChatGPT AI ChatGPT 2 AI AI+&AI AI 1 IDC 2026 1665 20212026 5 CAGR 10.2%AWS 20232025 15.27%25.8%27.23%2 DellOro Group 20212027 4%20232025 10%7%4%/AI 2023-2025 250.15/282.52/319.74 2023 20 PE 25.2 601138 2009 1210 3 AI.6 AI.6.7.8+AI.10 AI.12 ChatGPT AI.12 AI.13 1 AI.13 2 AI.16.20&AI.23.23 5G.26.27.28.31.32 601138 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3 2023.7 4.8 5.8 6.8 7.9 8.9 9.9 10.10 11.10 12.10 13.10 14“2+2”.11 15 NVIDIA HGX-1.11 16 5G.11 17.12 18 ChatGPT 5.12 19 ChatGPT.12 20 AI.13 21 AI.14 22 2021-2030E FP32 EFlops.14 23 GPT-3 AI.15 24.16 25.16 26.16 27 AI.17 28 DGX A100.17 29 GPU.18 30.18 31 GPU.18 32 2022 AI.19 33 2022-2027F AI.19 601138 2009 1210 5 34 2023E-2027E AI.19 35 2021-2026E.20 36 2021-2026E.20 37 2021.20 38.21 39.21 40.22 41 2023 Computex.22 42.23 43 2022Q3.23 44 GDP.23 45.24 46 2017-2021.24 47.24 48 2022.25 49 2020Q4-2021Q4.25 50 2021.25 51 2021/.25 52.26 53 2020-2026E 5G.26 54.27 55.27 56.28 57 3.29 58.29 59 2021.29 60 2021.29 61.30 62 6.30 63.31 64.32 601138 2009 1210 6 AI AI 5G 5G 5G/Fii Cloud 5G 1 40 AI 40 2018 2019 16 2022 5118.5 2022 100 2022 Chatgpt AI AI AI AI AI 601138 2009 1210 7 2 2023 86.34%China Galaxy Enterprise Limited 36.72%21.97%3 2023 wind FG(),()()IT Sun Microsystems 2022 6 2022 1.2 8 2023 2023 601138 2009 1210 8 4 12 2022 16.70%24 2023 33.40%36 2024 33.30%48 2025 16.60%2018-2022 5.36%2022 5118.5 16.45%4%20182022 4.39%2022 200.73 0.32%5 6 wind wind 2022 2961.78 57.86%14.37%2124.44 41.51%19.56%19.12 0.37%13.45%AI-5%0%5%10%15%20%01000200030004000500060002018 2019 2020 2021 2022营业总收入（亿元）YOY(%)-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%1501601701801902002102018 2019 2020 2021 2022归母净利润（亿元）YOY(%)归母净利率(%)601138 2009 1210 9 7 wind 2022 371.72 2022 274.05 73.73%84.22 22.66%2022 9.25%3.96%2018 32.55%2022 47.87%2018 0.47%2022 2.46%8 9 wind wind 2022 0.21%0.75%-0.14%0.82%2020 100 2022 115.88 2.26%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01000200030004000500060002018 2019 2020 2021 2022通信网络设备（亿元）云服务设备（亿元）工业互联网（亿元）其他业务（亿元）通信网络设备YoY(%)云服务设备YoY(%)工业互联网YoY(%)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022通信网络设备(%)云服务设备(%)工业互联网(%)公司整体(%)601138 2009 1210 10 10 11 wind wind 5G 2022 31603 15.9%2022 49.8%2021 11.3pct 12 13 wind wind+AI AI iphone AI 5G 2+2+-0.4%-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022销售费用率(%)管理费用率(%)财务费用率(%)2.0%2.1%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%0204060801001201402018 2019 2020 2021 2022研发费用（亿元）研发费用率(%)0%5%10%15%20%050001000015000200002500030000350002018 2019 2020 2021 2022研发人员数量(人)研发人员数量占比(%)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050001000015000200002021 2022本科及以上研发人员人数本科及以上研发人员比例(%)601138 2009 1210 11 14 2+2 2017 NVIDIA AI HGX-1 HGX-4 2022 10 DC_MHS 5G 5G 5G 5G 15 NVIDIA HGX-1 16 5G NVIDIA Amazon NVIDIA Cisco ARRIS 6 1500 2022 32,483,300 63.46%601138 2009 1210 12 17 e AI ChatGPT AI ChatGPT 2022 11 OpenAI AI ChatGPT GPT-3.5 RLHF ChatGPT 18 ChatGPT 5 19 ChatGPT TRTWORLD World of engineering 601138 2009 1210 13 ChatGPT AIGC AI AIGC AI Generated Content AI AI AIGC 3D ChatGPT AIGC GPT AIGC 6pen 10%-30%AI 600 Acumen Research and Consulting 2030 AIGC 1100 20 AI AIGC 1.0 AI 1 AI AI AI AI 601138 2009 1210 14 21 AI AIGC 1.0 2021 615EFlops 44%FP32 369EFlops FP32 232EFlops FP32 14EFlops GIV 2030 56ZFlops CAGR 65%3.3ZFlops CAGR 27%52.5ZFlops CAGR 80%0.2ZFlops CAGR 34%22 2021-2030E FP32 EFlops AI GPT-3 OpenAI 2020=6 GPT-3 1750 45TB 3000 tokens=6 1.75 1011 3 1011=3.15 108 PFLOPS 3646PFLOPS-day GPU OpenAI 601138 2009 1210 15 GPT-3 V100 GPU 21.3%GPT-3 1.48 109PFLOPS(17117 PFLOPS-day)ChatGPT OpenAI=2 500tokens 350=2 1.75 1011 500=0.175PFLOPS SimilarWeb 2023 4 ChatGPT 17.6 5867 10=0.175 5.87 107 10=10.273 107PFLOPS 30%3.42 108PFLOPS IDC 2022 268EFLOPS=268 60 60 24=2.32 107EFLOPS ChatGPT 1.47%23 GPT-3 AI 1750 token 500 350 TB 45 PFLOPS=2=2 1.75 1011 500=0.175 tokens 3000 chatgpt4 5867 PFLOPS=6*=6 1.75 1011 3 1011=3.15 108 10 PFLOPS-day 3646 PFLOPS=0.175 5.87 107 10=10.273 107 21.3%30%PFLOPS 1.48 109 PFLOPS 3.42 108 PFLOPS-day 17117 2022=3.42 108/2.32 1010=1.47%PFLOPS-day PD 1PD=86400PFLOPS SimilarWeb&AI 2021 1 Switch Transformer 1.6 5 28 79 601138 2009 1210 16 24 25 A.Mehonic&A.J.Kenyon Brain-inspired computing needs a master plan AIGC 1.0 26 2023 2 AI AI AI GPU TPU AI AI AI 601138 2009 1210 17 27 AI A16Z David AI AI CPU AI CPU AI AI CPU GPU CPU FPGA CPU TPU CPU ASIC CPU GPU 28 DGX A100 GPU IDC 2022 GPU AI 89%GPU GPU AI GPU 4 IDC 70%GPU 72.8%601138 2009 1210 18 29 GPU 30 IDC IDC GPU AI OpenAI GPT-3 2017 V100 GPU 2020 A100 GPU Ampere 7nm 542 V100 156.9%GPU A100 2 H100 GPU Hopper 4nm 800 A100 47%FP16 765.5TFLOPS A100 142.5%2023 5 Computex GH200 Arm NVIDIA Grace CPU Hopper GPU H100 NVIDIA NVLink-C2C 900GB/s PCIe Gen5 7 31 GPU Nvidia V100 Nvidia A100 Nvidia H100 2017.5 2020.6 2022.3 Volta Ampere Hopper TSMC 12nm TSMC 7nm TSMC 4nm(mm)815 826 814(Billion)21.1 54.2 80 Boost Clock(MHz)1530 1410 1620 FP16 tensor(TFLOPS)125 312 756.5 FP16 GFLOPS per USD 13.89 24.96 21.01 Total SRAM(MB)36 87.25 107 Interface SXM2/PCIe Gen3 SXM4/PCIe Gen4 SXM5/PCIe Gen5 TDP 250W/300W/450W 250W/300W/400W 700W/300W MetaX/AI TrendForce 2022 AWS Meta AI 66.2%/Bytedance 6%2%2%2%89%11%GPU卡 非GPU卡0%20%40%60%80%100%基础型 高性能型 推理型 机器学习 型CPU GPU 内存、存 储等 其他 601138 2009 1210 19 32 2022 AI TrendForce AI&TrendForce 2022 GPGPU AI 9%14 1%ChatBot AI 2023 15.4%16 2023-2027 12.2%27 25 IDC 2022 AI 67 24%GPU 89%2027 AI 164 CAGR 16.1%GPU 13%33 2022-2027F AI 34 2023E-2027E AI TrendForce 2023.04 IDC 2023.05 AI AI IDC 2022 1516 12%1216 2026 1885 5 CAGR 6.8%1665 5 CAGR 10.2%Microsoft,19%Google,17%Meta,16%AWS,14%Bytedance,6%Tencent,2%Baidu,2%Alibaba,2%Others,22%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%0510152025302022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F出货量 yoy 601138 2009 1210 20 35 2021-2026E 36 2021-2026E IDC 2022 IDC 2022 Counterpoint 2021 HPE Inspur 14.5%12.4%10.1%ODM 302.3 31.1%126.5 ODM 42%37 2021 Counterpoint 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%05001000150020002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E出货量 yoy0%5%10%15%20%05001000150020002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E产值 yoy 601138 2009 1210 21 38 2017 NVIDIA AI HGX-1 2022 AI 2022 AI HPC 2022 20%39 2022 115.88 2022 10 DC_MHS 601138 2009 1210 22 40 ingrasys 2023(COMPUTEX 2023)AI 41 2023 Computex Dell Digitimes Dell 2022Q3 28%601138 2009 1210 23 42 43 2022Q3 Digitimes&AI GDP 2022 50.2 10.3%GDP 41.5%“”2025 60 2032 100 20222032 50 44 GDP 2021 5 Meta,13.8%Amazon,11.9%Dell,10.4%Supermicro,8.4%HPE,7.9%谷歌,8.1%微软,5.7%联想,4.4%浪潮,5.5%华为,2.1%其他,21.8%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%0204060801001202016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025E 2032E规模（万亿元）占GDP 比重 601138 2009 1210 24 2022 2 8 10 45 IDC 2021 542.4 10.1%9.7%6.5%20.4%102.4 660 12.1%17.5%-2.6%47.2%46 2017-2021 47 IDC IDC 2022 103 22.0%365 18.7%601138 2009 1210 25 9.7%2022 22.6%12.2%Technavio 2021 2026 8.21%IDC 2022 Arista HPE 43.3%/10.3%/9.9%/5.4%/5.4%-2.0/+0.1/+2.3/-0.7/-0.7pct Arista 48 2022 49 2020Q4-2021Q4 IDC IDC 2021 36%35%12%5%2%CR5 90%2021 ODM 31%50 2021 51 2021/5G 5G 2019 2022 GSMA 2022 5G 140 20%380 2022 88.7 5G 231 60%5G 5G 思科,43.3%华为,10.3%Arista Networks,9.9%H3C,5.4%HPE,5.4%其他,25.7%华为,36%新华三,35%星网锐捷,12%思科,5%中兴通讯,2%其他,9%品牌商,69%ODM,31%601138 2009 1210 26 IHS 2022 5G 307.4 4.53%2026 355.45 3.7%52 53 2020-2026E 5G GSMA 2023 HIS 2022/12 5G FWA 5G Massive MIMO 5G+5G 1 50%IP 2 5G Wi-Fi6/6E Wi-Fi7 5G 5G 3 0501001502002503003504002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026ESub-6GHz 5G NR Core mmWave 601138 2009 1210 27 54 2022 29%330%99%36%20%55 2012 iPhone 5 5G 2017 iPhone8/8 Plus/X+1 5G 601138 2009 1210 28 CNC 2 6 6013 7 56 5G 2022 45 2022 1.2 15.5%2023 4 20 IDC 2022 PaaS APP 2021 19.8 2025 56.1 29.6%601138 2009 1210 29 57 3 58 IDC 2022/10 IDC 2022/10 IDC 2021 21.8%19.1%17.4%16.2%12.9%8.5%4.1%CR5 24.4%59 2021 60 2021 IDC IDC 10 1500 40 2022 19.12 13.46%/Fii Cloud 113%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%01020304050602020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E市场空间（亿美 元）yoy 601138 2009 1210 30 60%283%63%140%53%61“”2023 1 WEF 4 6“”62 6 601138 2009 1210 31 1 IDC 2026 1665 20212026 5 CAGR 10.2%AWS 20232025 15.27%25.8%27.23%2 DellOro Group 20212027 4%20232025 10%7%4%63 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 258966 296178 325796 348602 362546 yoy 1.95%14.37%10.00%7.00%4.00%28044 27405 29973 31723 32267 10.83%9.25%9.20%9.10%8.90%177694 212444 244893 308068 391958 yoy 1.36%19.56%15.27%25.80%27.23%7356 8422 12244 16937 22512 4.14%3.96%5.00%5.50%5.74%1685 1912 2103 2313 2545 yoy 16.92%13.45%10.00%10.00%10.00%739 915 1051 1110 1171 43.87%47.87%50.00%48.00%46.00%1212 1316 1421 1506 1581 yoy 18.84%8.52%8.00%6.00%5.00%375 430 469 512 553 30.94%32.67%33.00%34.00%35.00%439557 511850 574213 660489 758629 yoy 1.80%16.45%12.18%15.03%14.86%36515 37172 43737 50282 56503 8.31%7.26%7.62%7.61%7.45%wind/AI 601138 2009 1210 32 2023-2025 250.15/282.52/319.74 2023 20 PE 25.2 64 EPS PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 45.23 1.8 2.24 2.61 25 20 17 35.97 2.08 2.42 2.77 17 15 13 32.71 0.94 1.16 1.4 35 28 23 26 21 18 21.35 1.26 1.43 1.62 17 15 13 wind EPS wind 2023 6 12 AI AI AI 601138 2009 1210 33 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 69,430 104,582 116,691 129,075 511,850 574,213 660,489 758,629 17 6 9 3,793 474,678 530,475 610,206 702,127 97,673 109,240 125,682 144,417 486 517 660 798 352 316 362 444 1,058 1,091 1,255 1,366 77,322 75,082 86,475 99,864 3,828 4,077 4,689 5,295 0 0 0 0 11,588 12,346 14,333 15,462 4,146 4,380 5,357 6,497-704-565-613-589 248,940 293,607 334,575 384,091 180-50-60-80 0 0 0 0-1,069-515-765-818 12,216 12,216 12,216 12,216-70-16-20-55 15,937 15,901 16,874 18,600 30 30 30 30 701 2,701 3,701 3,701 1,877 1,624 1,751 1,687 440 439 453 478 21,872 27,356 30,904 34,946 5,953 5,885 5,845 5,849 121 99 101 107 35,248 37,142 39,089 40,845 31 85 93 70 284,188 330,749 373,663 424,936 21,963 27,370 30,912 34,984 50,498 50,498 50,498 50,498 1,879 2,342 2,645 2,993 0 0 133 147 20,084 25,028 28,267 31,991 69,279 87,630 98,575 114,214 11 13 15 17 0 0 0 0 20,073 25,015 28,252 31,974 177 198 228 262 NOPLAT 19,441 24,511 27,706 31,452 16,901 16,901 16,901 16,901 EPS()1.01 1.26 1.42 1.61 5,267 5,267 5,267 5,267 7,054 7,770 8,890 10,050 149,176 168,264 180,491 197,339 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 3,485 5,828 8,178 10,533 0 0 0 0 16.4%12.2%15.0%14.9%2,194 2,194 2,194 2,194 EBIT-1.1%26.1%13.0%13.5%5,679 8,022 10,372 12,727 0.3%24.6%12.9%13.2%154,854 176,286 190,863 210,065 128,975 154,029 182,281 214,255 7.3%7.6%7.6%7.4%358 434 519 616 3.9%4.4%4.3%4.2%129,334 154,463 182,800 214,871 ROE 15.6%16.2%15.5%14.9%284,188 330,749 373,663 424,936 ROIC 12.1%13.3%13.0%12.9%54.5%53.3%51.1%49.4%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 47.5%41.3%36.2%31.9%15,366 38,455 15,424 15,796 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 22,601 28,892 32,060 36,048 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4-5,394 2,239-11,393-13,389-9,698-11,005-15,725-21,785 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 5,385 18,351 11,078 15,653 65 65 64 64 2,472-23-597-731 53 53 55 55-15,308-6,262-6,283-6,322 57 52 48 48-8,984-6,392-6,393-6,398()-9,048 0 0 0 1.01 1.26 1.42 1.61 2,724 130 110 76 0.77 1.94 0.78 0.80-14,068 2,959 2,968 2,911 6.49 7.75 9.18 10.79 2,246 2,344 2,349 2,355-11,090-800-823-837 P/E 21 17 15 13 0 0 0 0 P/B 3 3 2 2-5,225 1,415 1,441 1,393 EV/EBITDA 20 15 14 12 601138 2009 1210 34 2019 2016 2017 3 2020 2019 2021 2021 1 2022 2022 7 9 2022 601138 2009 1210 35 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 601138 2009 1210 36 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522