深度报告-20230105-平安证券-中鼎股份-000887.SZ-非轮胎橡胶件龙头迎增量业务快速发展期_19页_2mb.pdf
2023 01 05(000887.SZ)请 通 过 合 法 途径获 取本公 司研究 报告，如经由 未经许 可的渠 道获得 研究报 告，请 慎重 使用并 注意阅 读研究 报告尾 页的声 明内容。14.39/()/40.46%,()1,316 A()1,314 B/H()189 A()189()8.22(%)44.9 S1060511010006 BQV509 WANGDEAN S1060121070063 WANGGENHAI 13 2008 WEGU 2016 AMK 2020 2022/2023/2024 11.3/13.8/16.5 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()11548 12577 13750 15758 18003 YOY(%)-1.3 8.9 9.3 14.6 14.2()493 965 1133 1377 1654 YOY(%)-18.2 96.0 17.4 21.5 20.1(%)22.7 22.5 23.5 23.6 24.1(%)4.3 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.2 ROE(%)5.5 10.4 10.2 11.5 12.7 EPS(/)0.37 0.73 0.86 1.05 1.26 P/E()38.5 19.6 16.7 13.8 11.5 P/B()2.2 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 证券研究报告 2/19 1 2 3 4 5 3/19.5.7.8.13.14.16.17 4/19 1.5 2%.5 3.6 4.6 5.7 6.7 7.8 8.8 9.8 10.9 11.10 12.10 13.10 14.11 15 AMK.12 16+.12 17.13 18.14 19.15 20.15 21.16 22.17 23.17 5/19 40.46%1980,53.74%46.26%2007 2008 13 2003 2008“”“”“”2008 AB MRP BRP 2011 COOPER 2012 ACUSHNET Precix 2014 KACO 2015 WEGU FM 2016 AMK 2017 TFH 1 2 3 AMK Greenmotion 2020 CEO 2021 11.3%1 2%051015202530352010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0510152025303540452010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1H22 6/19 3 2018 2019 2020 2021 1H22 AMK 15.1 10.6 7.8 6.3 3.0 26.8%16.9%12.1%16.8%21.6%4.4 7.9 4.7 23.27%16.06%13.66%WEGU 28.6 27 22.2 27.6 14.9 24.5%20.7%24.3%20.0%17.5%TFH 28.7 29.9 30.3 33 17.8 27.0%22.2%17.9%25.6%16.1%KACO 29.5 29.5 27.9 30.6 14.2 25.1%24.9%26.9%27.9%26.3%21.8 20 22.8 20.4 7.9 34.9%40.5%26.7%17.2%32.6%wind 4 2008 US ABR 2009 US MRP and BRP 2011 US COOPER 2012 US ACUSHNET/Precix 2014 KACO GmbH+Co.KG(Germany KACO)KACO 2015 Wegu Holding GmbH 2016 Federal Mogul Systems 7/19 2016 Green Motion 2016 AMK 2017 TFH TFH 13%5 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 1H22/2.62 4.72 5.18 4.97 5.46 6.18 2.72 0.29 0.82 1.10 1.08 1.38 2.11 1.11 2.72 3.39 4.35 2.59 AMK 0.28 0.37 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 1H22/0.29 0.55 0.65 0.60 0.90 1.15 0.49 0.05 0.13 0.18 0.16 0.21 0.25 0.11 0.12 0.16 0.26 0.18 AMK 0.00-0.03 wind 6 2012 2018 2019 2020 2021 1H22 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 53.16%55.81%55.10%54.02%50.51%8/19 KACO ACUSHNET KACO WEGU AMK 7 8 9 wind 01020304050607080901002017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 9/19 ECU 30+1.2-1.5 10 10/19 11 AMK 12 13 AMK-11/19 14/2000-4000 1300-1400 350-400 200-300 2500-3000 ECU ECU 400-500 50-100/7 1000-2000 8000-9000 1.2-1.5 2022 6 2%ES8 ES6 EC6 ET7 L9 Hiphi X 001 FREE 30 001 2.8 32.7 30+20+30+10%2025 30+15%30+50%20-30 18.5%2022 15.5%30%2025 300 AMK AMK 60%AMK 1964 1998 AMK AMK Know-how AMK AMK 2021 AMK“”AMK AMK 2022 AMK 2022 12 AMK 73 2022 AMK 4 AMK 8000 10-15%AMK 12/19 AMK AMK AMK 70%2024 2500 AMK 30%300 AMK+58.2 2021 AMK 1 15 AMK 16+13/19 17 60 1.5 10 25%8 5 15 2021 2022 137 2022 2025 25 5%14/19 18 2017 TFH creatube TPV NVH TFH 2025 70 2021-2025 20%10-12%15/19 19 20 wind 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800 16/19 21 wind 13 2008 WEGU 2016 AMK 2020 2022/2023/2024 11.3/13.8/16.5 010203040506070802017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 17/19 22 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 6.3 7.5 11.0 16.0 35.0 7.9 11.0 17.0 22.1 25.0 27.6 30.0 31.5 33.1 34.7 33.0 38.0 46.0 55.6 67.3 30.6 31.0 31.5 32.0 32.5 20.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.9 125.8 137.5 157.6 180.0 216.4 wind 23 股票名称 股票代码 市值（亿元）净利润(亿元)P/E 2023-01-04 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 中鼎股份 000887.SZ 189 9.7 11.3 13.8 16.5 19.6 16.7 13.8 11.5 拓普集团 601689.SH 630 10.2 17.4 24.8 33.3 62.0 36.2 25.4 18.9 保隆科技 603197.SH 98 2.7 2.1 3.6 5.0 36.6 47.6 27.4 19.6 WIND WIND 1 2 3 4 5 18/19 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 9891 10629 12533 14734 1658 1767 2464 3335 3610 4075 4671 5336 180 202 232 265 65 96 110 126 2501 2609 2987 3391 1877 1879 2069 2281 8405 8108 7707 7232 212 212 212 212 4236 4133 3925 3613 596 497 398 298 3360 3266 3172 3108 18297 18737 20240 21965 6094 4638 5299 6014 1194 0 0 0 2411 2617 2996 3401 2488 2021 2303 2613 2898 2898 2898 2898 2328 2328 2328 2328 570 570 570 570 8991 7535 8197 8912 38 38 38 38 1221 1316 1316 1316 2318 3427 3427 3427 5728 6420 7261 8272 9267 11164 12005 13015 18297 18737 20240 21965 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 810 1109 1813 2106 963 1133 1377 1654 710 897 1001 1075 127 110 129 151-271-139-150-160-702-891-545-615-18-2 1 1 63-459-451-441 869 600 600 600 92 0 0 0-898-1059-1051-1041-1213-541-665-794-352-1194 0 0-1522 0 0 0 661 653-665-794-388 109 697 870 iFinD 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 12577 13750 15758 18003 9746 10513 12036 13664 95 104 119 136 383 385 433 491 823 899 945 1062 582 653 745 846 127 110 129 151-39 0 0 0-19 0 0 0 59 60 70 80 54 39 40 43 271 139 150 160 16 0 0 0 1162 1323 1610 1935 26 60 62 64 22 50 52 54 1166 1333 1620 1945 203 200 243 292 963 1133 1377 1654-2 0 0 0 965 1133 1377 1654 EBITDA 2004 2341 2750 3172 EPS 0.73 0.86 1.05 1.26 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E(%)8.9 9.3 14.6 14.2(%)89.4 13.9 21.6 20.2(%)96.0 17.4 21.5 20.1(%)22.5 23.5 23.6 24.1(%)7.7 8.2 8.7 9.2 ROE(%)10.4 10.2 11.5 12.7 ROIC(%)7.9 10.2 11.7 13.7(%)49.1 40.2 40.5 40.6(%)20.0 5.0-1.1-7.7 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.99 4.67 4.67 4.67()0.73 0.86 1.05 1.26()0.62 0.84 1.38 1.60()6.88 8.33 8.96 9.73 P/E 19.6 16.7 13.8 11.5 P/B 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 EV/EBITDA 14.5 8.6 7.1 6.0 :6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%“”2023 4008866338 5023 B 25 518033 1333 26 200120 021 33830395 9 16 100033
