|2023 01 19 688676.SH 1997 2021 70%82 2021 25.5%VESTAS GE SIEMENS Gamesa VESTAS GE SIEMENSGamesa 2021 25.5%/2016 2022 35kV/12.5MW/25MWh 3 3.9GWh 2022 1.2GWh 2.7GWh 2023 3 100%95%3 2022 2023 2022-2024 44.92/66.16/102.93 37%/47%/56%2.71/4.75/8.88 16%/75%/87%2022-2024 PE 64.5x/36.8x/19.7x 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2,423 3,303 4,492 6,616 10,293 yoy%7.9 36.3 36.8 47.3 55.6 232 235 271 475 888 yoy%10.3 1.3 15.7 75.1 86.8 EPS/0.54 0.55 0.64 1.11 2.08%11.8 9.6 10.3 15.4 22.7 P/E 75.6 74.7 64.5 36.8 19.7 P/B 9.0 7.1 6.6 5.7 4.5 Wind 2023 1 18 1 18()41.02()17,516.35()427.02(%)44.46 30()3.22 S0680520030005-73%-55%-37%-18%0%18%37%55%73%2022-01 2022-05 2022-09 2023-01 300 2023 01 19 P.2 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 3075 4252 5475 7397 11671 2423 3303 4492 6616 10293 541 830 794 662 1029 1774 2526 3609 5282 8163 1197 1415 2137 3095 5046 15 19 26 38 59 18 34 36 67 94 89 115 135 165 206 38 105 89 197 248 132 185 225 311 412 1051 1424 2111 3063 4934 112 158 202 298 463 231 444 307 314 320 25 35 23 32 59 945 1130 1349 1707 2371-14-10-14-20-31 0 13 27 40 54 22 15 0 0 0 499 549 735 1043 1585 0 11 3 4 5 175 165 190 191 195 0-4 0 0-1 271 402 397 432 539 0-1 0 0 0 4020 5382 6824 9104 14042 253 247 290 514 966 1801 2496 3794 5675 9771 8 12 11 9 10 46 84 84 309 492 1 2 2 1 2 1147 1422 2703 4339 8219 260 258 299 521 975 608 991 1008 1026 1059 28 22 26 45 84 257 423 378 343 348 232 235 273 476 891 186 336 291 257 261 0 1 2 1 3 70 87 87 87 87 232 235 271 475 888 2058 2919 4172 6019 10119 EBITDA 316 338 371 638 1161 5 0 2 3 6 EPS/0.54 0.55 0.64 1.11 2.08 383 426 427 427 427 734 1047 1047 1047 1047 839 989 1214 1587 2237 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1957 2462 2650 3083 3917 4020 5382 6824 9104 14042%7.9 36.3 36.8 47.3 55.6%7.8-2.3 17.2 77.2 88.1%10.3 1.3 15.7 75.1 86.8%26.8 23.5 19.7 20.2 20.7%9.6 7.1 6.0 7.2 8.6 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE%11.8 9.6 10.3 15.4 22.7 192 253 261 221 1116 ROIC%10.3 7.9 8.4 12.5 18.5 232 235 273 476 891 57 78 81 118 179%51.2 54.2 61.1 66.1 72.1 25 35 23 32 59%-12.5-11.3-10.3 2.0-2.5 0 4 0 0 1 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2-140-118-112-402-9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 19 18-3-4-5-155-459-159-479-846 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 231 232 205 345 651 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 74-224-13-13-13 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3 150-451 32-148-208 89 494-137-100-86 0.54 0.55 0.64 1.11 2.08-34 38 0 0 0 0.45 0.59 0.61 0.52 2.61 166 150-45-34 5 4.58 5.77 6.20 7.22 9.17 0 43 1 0 0 2 313 0 0 0 P/E 75.6 74.7 64.5 36.8 19.7-44-50-93-65-91 P/B 9.0 7.1 6.6 5.7 4.5 121 280-36-358 185 EV/EBITDA 54.7 50.4 46.3 27.4 14.9 Wind 2023 1 18 2023 01 19 P.3.5 1.1.5 1.2.9.13 2.1.13 2.2.15 2.2.1.15 2.2.2.17 2.3 26%.18.22 3.1 3.0.22 3.1.1/.22 3.1.2.27 3.1.3 3.9GWh.30 3.2.31.32.34 1.5 2.5 3.7 4.8 5.8 6 2021.9 7 2017-2022.10 8 2017-2022.10 9 2017-2021.10 10 2017-2021.10 11 2017-2022H1.11 12 2018-2022H1.11 13 2018-2022H1.11 14 2020-2022/.12 15 2022/.12 16 22 6/.12 17 2017-2022.12 18.13 19.13 20.14 21.14 22.15 23.15 24 GW.15 2023 01 19 P.4 25 GW.15 26 2021.16 27 2021.16 28 2017-2021 GW.16 29 2017-2021 GW.16 30 2011 LCOE/KWh.17 31 2010 2021 LCOE/KWh.17 32.18 33 MW.18 34.18 35.19 36.19 37 2020.20 38 2019.20 39 2021 GW.20 40.20 41 2019-2021.21 42.21 43 2018-2021.21 44.22 45 2016-2021.23 46 2016-2021.23 47 2019-2021 MW.23 48 2022 MWh.23 49 2021&MW%.24 50 MW.24 51 2021.24 52 2022 400MWh MWh.24 53.24 54.26 55.26 56.26 57.27 58.28 59-.28 60.29 61.29 62.30 63.30 64 3.9GWh.31 65.31 66 3.32 67.33 68 22-24.33 69 PE 2023.01.18.34 2023 01 19 P.5 1.1 1997 1998 2016 2017 2021 SVG 2021 1 2021 8 3 2022 7 10 2 45000kVA 40.5kV/2023 01 19 P.6 23000kVA 35kV 3150kVA 35kV 3150 kVA 35kV 10000 kvar 35kV 5000kvar 10kV SVG 2023 01 19 P.7 635kV PCS 20MW/40MWh 82 UL KEMA CE DNV-GL CSA 6 82 3 2023 1 3 YUQINGJING 43.43%YUQING JING 6.33%YUQING JING 49.76%2023 1 3 68.31%2023 01 19 P.8 4 wind 2022 6 30 329 15.92%5 1982-1988 1988-1991 1991-1997 1997-2011 1993-1997 1997-2017 2017 KAIYUSONG 2014 Forebright Administration Services Limitied 2015-2020 2016-2021 1995-1996 1996 11-2021 9 1994-2004 2004-2017 2017-2019 2017 1997-2008 2023 01 19 P.9 2008-2013 2014-2016 2016-2017 2017 2000 2017 12 2006 2017 3 2008 2020 4 2011 2017 1 1997 1997 7 ERP 2005 2019 3 2008 2021 7 2008 2020 4 2021 9 279 2022 10 2021 15/8.79/5.00 78 132.25 6 2021 15.00 9.31%0.04%8.79 5.46%0.02%5.00 3.10%0.01%78 132.25 82.13%0.31%81 161.04 100.00%0.38%1.2 2021 33.03+36%2017-2021 13%2.35+1%2017-2021 40%2022 31.87+39%1.68 2023 01 19 P.10+0.35%2022 6 30 74 147 43 147 82 500 9 1 7 2017-2022 8 2017-2022 70%20 2017-2021 59%/70%/74%/80%/75%2017-2021 85%/82%/79%/79%/81%2017-2021 43%/40%/41%/46%/45%2022H1 24%/23%9 2017-2021 10 2017-2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%051015202530352017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.1-9 yoy0%50%100%150%200%250%0112232017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.1-9 yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 01 19 P.11 11 2019-2022H1 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 9.18 41.49%11.01 45.61%14.77 44.96%9.58 48.86%5.68 25.66%8.77 36.33%10.96 33.37%4.71 23.99%2.97 13.40%1.83 7.59%2.94 8.94%4.46 22.73%0.08 0.36%0.17 0.69%0.31 0.95%0.16 0.79%0.46 2.07%0.24 1.01%0.55 1.69%0.26 1.34%2.51 11.34%3.07 12.71%3.21 9.76%1.00 5.10%2.46 11.11%2.67 11.06%3.24 9.86%1.43 7.27%2.23 10.09%3.03 12.54%3.82 11.63%3.62 18.44%5.76 0.26 4.40 0.18 7.87 0.24 4.01 0.20 2021+29.44%2020 10 2021 2021 2022H1 82.01/kVA 2021 75.53/kVA 9pcts 12 2018-2022H1 13 2018-2022H1 80%2021/2020 40.39%9.87%-22.14%2022Q2/2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%050000001000000015000000200000002500000030000000350000002018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 kVA yoy-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%70727476788082842018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1/kVA yoy 2023 01 19 P.12 14 2020-2022/15 2022/16 22 6/wind wind 12%2022 12%2021 3pcts 17 2017-2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3(%)(%)0200040006000800010000120002017-1-3 2018-1-3 2019-1-3 2020-1-3 2021-1-3 2022-1-3:50WW600:0.5*1200*C:50WW600:0.5*1200*C:010000200003000040000500006000070000800002017-1-10 2018-1-10 2019-1-10 2020-1-10 2021-1-10 2022-1-10:1#:1#:-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.1-9 2023 01 19 P.13 2.1 18 19 2023 01 19 P.14 3MW 400V 74.36 2022 1085.17 8.07 20 21 2023 01 19 P.15 22 23 2.2 2.2.1 5 111GW GWEC GlobalWindReport2022 2021 93.61GW 20 14.27%GWEC 5 557GW 111GW 2021 47.57GW 2011-2021 12.03%GWEC 283GW 57GW 24 GW 25 GW GWEC GWEC 2021 40%51%GWEC 2021 404.14GW 235.95GW 188.27GW 98%2021 40.40%/16.05%/7.71%/4.79%/3.17%72.11%2021 020406080100120140201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E01020304050607080201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E 2023 01 19 P.16 50.91%/13.58%/4.06%/3.74%/2.78%75.07%26 2021 27 2021 GWEC GWEC 2021 82.3GW-9%83%16.8GW+158%17%10pcts 2021 41.6GW-23%75%14.2GW+255%25%18pcts 28 2017-2021 GW 29 2017-2021 GW LCOE 2011 LCOE 0.083/KWh LCOE 0.171/KWh 2021 LCOE 0.033/KWh 2011 40%LCOE 0.075/KWh 2011 44%LCOE LCOE 2021 0.033/KWh 2021 0.075/KWh 2021 0.118/KWh 51%13%4%4%3%25%40%16%8%5%3%28%0102030405060702017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 01 19 P.17 30 2011 LCOE/KWh 31 2010 2021 LCOE/KWh IRENA IRENA 2.2.2/4.5MW 35 3 240mm+1 120mm 35m 20/1/50 4.5MW 70KW/2%0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.182011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 LCOE LCOE0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45 2010 2021 2023 01 19 P.18 32 2019 5.0MW 3.0%2021 23.3%CWEA 2011 1.55MW 2021 3.51MW 120%1.5MW 3.1MW 2.7MW 5.6MW 3MW 33 MW 34 CWEA GWEC 2.3 26%-SIEMENS ABB SGB SIEMENS ABB SGB SIEMENS SGB 0%100%200%300%400%500%600%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 01 19 P.19 SIEMENS ABB 35 ABB ABB 130 ABB ABBAbility SGB-SMIT SGB SGB 5.50%93.22%6MW 2022 12 14 6MW 400MW 64 448000KVA 7.XMW 2022 12 29 7.XMW 7.XMW 7900KVA 2100kVA-6288kVA 100 2.05.3MW 1036.75kV-40-+55 36 2100kVA6288kVA 100 2.05.3MW 1036.75kV 5-15%1525%-40-+55 IEC60076-11 C2 E2 F1 ISO12944 C4H 2023 01 19 P.20 ROHS/REACH CE DNV-GL ETL UL 37%-VESTAS GE SIEMENSGamesa 2019-2021 VESTAS GE SIEMENSGamesa 36.74%37 2020 38 2019 39 2021 GW 40 26%2019-2021 VESTAS GE SIEMENSGamesa VESTAS GE SIEMENSGamesa 19.54%/25.43%/29.49%2019-2021 13%11%11%3%3%59%VESTASSIEMENSGE 11%9%7%5%3%65%GEVESTASSIEMENS 0 5 10 15 200%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GE Siemens Gamesa Vestas 2023 01 19 P.21 16.9%/19.1%/25.5%41 2019-2021 42 2021 GE 2021 498 671 17.9 2021 2018-2021 100%43 2018-2021 2023 4454 kVA 665 kVA 2021 1400 KVA/2020 10 800 kVA/&IPO 1900 kVA 100 kvar 19.54%25.43%29.49%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2019 2020 202116.90%19.10%25.50%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2019 2020 202186%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%102%104%2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 01 19 P.22 2020 2021 2022 2021 100%95%86%67%76%110%44 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E KVA 665 665 1400 1400 1400 1400 KVA 800 800 800 800 800 800&KVA 800 800 800 1000 1500 1900 KVA 383 1254 1254 1254 1254 1254 KVA 2648 3519 4254 4454 4954 5354 2022 2022 7 10 PCS 6kV 10kV 35kV 2021 2021 3.1 3.0 3.1.1/2016-2021 CAGR 89%CNESA 2016 0.6GW 2021 10.3GW 75%0.1GW 2.45GW 89%2021 25.4GW 5.7GW 2023 01 19 P.23 45 2016-2021 46 2016-2021 CNESA CNESA 2021 30 2022 231 34GW/70GWh 47 2019-2021 MW 48 2022 MWh CNESA 41%/2021 41 35%30 2021 2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0510152025302016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GW GW-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%012345672016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GW GW 01002003004005006007002019 2020 2021 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2023 01 19 P.24 49 2021&MW%50 MW CNESA CNESA 2021 70 2021 865 26.3GW 7 70/12/4 110 60 400MWh 22 1.07GW/2.17GWh 12 4 51 2021 52 2022 400MWh MWh CNESA CNESA 2021 18 2025 60GW 2GWh 2022 2023 6 53 1 2021/10 2025 450 35%41%24%0100200300400500600700800900 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2023 01 19 P.25 2 2021/12 2025 500 3 2022/2 2025 600 4 2022/3 648 5 2022/4 2025 400 6 2022/4 2025 200 8 2022/5 2025 600 9 2022/6 300 10 2022/6 200/400 11 2022/7 2022 50.76W 33.63GW 17.12GW 12 2022/8 2025 220 2030 13 2022/8 2025 260 14 2022/8 2022-2025 2025 300 15 2021 3 2035 200 16 2022 7 2025 100 17 2022 8 10 18 2021 10 5GW 60GW 500kW/1000kWh 1200kWh 500kW PCS 1200kWh/AC/DC 700V 400V PCS AC/DC PCS 2023 01 19 P.26 6kV 10kV 35kV 54 55 _ _/1 2-2.5%6kV/10kV PCS PCS 2 5-6%PCS 6kV/10kV/5-6%PCS 3 56 1 2 PCS 0.4kV 6/10kV 2023 01 19 P.27 3 4 5 1.3 6 7 8 9 _ 3.1.2 2016 2022 2016 2018 2021 7 2022 31 6 21 6 2 2022 4 5 7 9 35kV/12.5MW/25MWh 7 10 57 35kV/12.5MW/25MWh 15-20%PCS 1%6%15-20%10%2023 01 19 P.28 58 PCS 99.16%98%1%90%85%6%15%-20%567%/20MW/40MWh 3MW/6MW 95%3ms 56ms 80%10%48%20%3 PCS PCS PACK 59-40%10kV/10MW/20MWh 5MW/10MWh 100%35kV/20MW/40MWh 6MW/12MWh 233%2-3 42%PCS 12.5MW 99.16%99%THD 0.6%3%3ms 10ms/35kV/35kV 2023 01 19 P.29 60 SC1725UD BCS2500K3450K-B-H/T RHI-3P10K-HVES-5G NEPCS-6301000-E101 1500Vdc NEPCS-2000 12.5MW 3.45MW 2MW100MW 10kW 630kW 2MW H 99.16%99.00%99.03%98.40%99.00%THD 3%3%3%2%THD=3%3%3ms 30ms 10ms 40ms 40ms IP65 IP65 IP54 IP20 IP54 IP65 IP65 IP21 20MW 2.245MW SVG 61 SVG PCS H PMW H PCS H PCS/PCS PCS PCS PCS 2023 01 19 P.30 62 35kv 3Mw:3Mw:10kv 6kv GE SIEMENS VESTAS 3.1.3 3.9GWh 3 2022 1 EPC 200MW 88MWh 2022 4 100MW 0.65 50MWh 30 2022 Q3 25MWh 15 2022 6 0.70 100MW 50MWh 30 2022Q3 2022 9 100MW 0.7 2022 10 100MW 0.7 63 2022 1 200MW 88MWh 2022 4 100MW 50MWh 25MWh 0.65 2022 6 100MW 50MWh 0.70 2022 9 100MW 0.70 2022 10 100MW 0.70 2.75 9.77 3.9GWh 2023 01 19 P.31 3.9GWh 1.2GWh 2022 7 1 2.7GWh 2023 3 64 3.9GWh 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E GWh 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 GWh-2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 GWh 1.2 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.2 VDI4499 T VNORD 4 2 2023 2020 10 2021 100%95%110%800 kVA 2022 2022 19 VDI4499 65 3 3 1.72 2022 9-10 1.31 2023 2023 01 19 P.32 66 3 2021 8 1.48 2022 年 10 月 30 日 2021 12 0.23 2022 6 1.31 3.02 1 2022-2024 45/66/103+36%+47%+56%2022-2024 2022H1 19%19%19%2 2022-2024 9.0/8.5/8.1+8%-5%-5%2022-2024 2022H1 18%18%18%3 2021-2022 3 2022 1.4 2023 2022-2024 1.4/3.0/5.0+114%+67%2022-2024 40%40%40%4 2022 3 2023 2023 2023-2024 8.4/32.0+280%2023-2024 20%/21%5 2022H1 2022H1 14%2022-2024 13.2%12.2%11%2023 01 19 P.33 67 wind 2022-2024 44.92/66.16/102.93 37%/47%/56%2.71/4.75/8.88 16%/75%/87%EPS 0.64/1.11/2.08/2022-2024 PE 64.5x/36.8x/19.7x 68 22-24 Wind 2022-2024 123.84x/47.15x/29.70 x 2022-2024 PE 64.5x/36.8x/19.7x 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E营业总收入（亿元）24.23 33.03 44.92 66.16 102.93yoy 8%36%36%47%56%毛利率 27%24%20%20%21%干式变压器系列产品 19.36 24.71 34.56 46.23 57.84yoy 16%28%40%34%25%毛利率 27%25%19%19%19%其他传统业务 4.87 8.32 8.96 8.51 8.08yoy-16%71%8%-5%-5%毛利率 21%17%18%18%18%数字化工厂整体解决方案 1.40 3.00 5.00yoy 114%67%毛利率 40%40%40%高压联级储能系统 8.42 32.01yoy 280%毛利率 20%21%期间费用率 14.8%14.9%13.2%12.2%11.0%销售费用率 4%3%3%3%2%管理费用率 5%6%5%5%4%研发费用率 5%5%5%5%5%财务费用率 1%1%1%1%1%2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E营业收入(亿元)24.23 33.03 44.92 66.16 102.93增长率YoY 8%36%37%47%56%净利润(亿元)2.32 2.35 2.71 4.75 8.88增长率YoY 10%1%16%75%87%EPS(元)0.54 0.55 0.64 1.11 2.08净资产收益率 12%10%10%15%23%P/E(倍)75.6 74.7 64.5 36.8 19.7P/B(倍)9.0 7.1 6.6 5.7 4.5 2023 01 19 P.34 69 PE 2023.01.18 2022E 2023E 2024E PE 2022E PE 2023E PE 2024E 002121.SZ 142.24 0.61 2.53 5.08 233.61 56.29 27.98 688663.SH 65.23 1.43 2.16 3.11 45.54 30.13 20.98 688248.SH 335.43 2.13 4.88 7.47 157.34 68.76 44.90 300274.SZ 1,807.48 30.69 54.05 72.41 58.89 33.44 24.96 8.72 15.91 22.02 123.84 47.15 29.70 688676.SH 175.16 2.71 4.75 8.88 64.50 36.80 19.70 Wind Wind 2023 01 19 P.35,6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033