深度报告-20230504-华创证券-欧科亿-688308.SH-深度研究报告_体系逐步完善_结构持续优化_向中高端刀具市场迈进_25页_1mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 05 04 688308 86.1 55.65 2017-2022 4.28 10.6 CAGR 19.8%CAGR 37.1%61%0.45 2.42 CAGR 40.3%2000 500 1 2017 2 2022 3 2022 8 2022 60 2023-2025 13.8 17.9 22.7 3.23 4.40 5.81 EPS 2.87 3.91 5.16 2023 30 PE 86.1 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()1,055 1,381 1,793 2,274(%)6.6%30.9%29.8%26.8%()242 323 440 581(%)8.9%33.5%36.1%31.9%()2.15 2.87 3.91 5.16()26 19 14 11()2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 2023 4 28 021-20572562 S0360523020001 0755-82755859 S0360517100004 祎 S0360523030001()11,261.63()6,587.08()62.67()36.66(%)25.65()22.45 12/84.60/45.43(12)688308 2022 2022-11-02-13%17%47%77%22/05 22/07 22/09 22/12 23/02 23/042022-05-052023-04-28 300 688308 2009 1210 1 2 2022 3 4 5 1 2 2023-2025 13.8 17.9 22.7 3.23 4.40 5.81 EPS 2.87 3.91 5.16 2023 30 PE 86.1 688308 2009 1210 3.6“”.6.7.9.10.10 2000 500.12.14.16.17.17.18.19.19.21 688308 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3.7 4 2023 03 31.7 5.7 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.10 13.10 14.10 15.11 16.11 17.12 18.12 19 2021.12 20.13 21.13 22.13 23 2023.14 24.15 25.15 26.16 27.16 28.16 29.17 30 2020.17 31.17 32.17 33.18 688308 2009 1210 5 34.18 35 IPO.18 36.19 37.19 38.20 39.20 688308 2009 1210 6 1996 2020 1 PVD/CVD 3C 2019-2021 2021 0.81 1.03 2017-2022 1.33 6.43 CAGR 37%31%61%2017 0.19 2022 0.99 688308 2009 1210 7 2 3 Wind Wind 1982-1995 601 1996-2017 2017 4 2023 03 31 5 1982 7 1995 11 601 601 1996 1 2017 6 2017 6 1991 7 2000 2 2000 3 2017 6 2017 6 2013 9 2019 3 2019 3 2019 4 1989 8 1992 6 1992 8 2017 6 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()()0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 688308 2009 1210 8 2009 7 2013 8 2015 5 2020 7 2000 2014 2015 2022 4 29 2006 6 2016 12 2017 1 2022 169 31 172 28.3/6 2 1%2 1%2 1%2 1%2 1%1.5 0.75%0.8 0.4%12.3 6.15%165 156.7 78.35%169.00 84.50%31 15.50%200 100%7 30 10 2001 2012 6 2012 2007 688308 2009 1210 9 2009 2017 4.28 2022 10.55 CAGR 19.8%CAGR 37.1%2017 0.45 2022 2.42 CAGR 40.3%2023Q1 2.84 8.38%0.59 4.78%8 9 Wind Wind 2017-2022 27.5%36.8%10.4%22.9%0.52 1.73 10 11 Wind Wind 2017-2022 2017 4.76%2022 2.18%2017 4.42%2021 2.95%2022 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 688308 2009 1210 10 5%12 13 Wind Wind PCD CBN 14-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%0.000.100.200.300.400.500.602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 688308 2009 1210 11 15 16 2021 4 10%2021 12 2025 2035 2035 2021 3 2021 3 2019 2019 11 2018 2018 12 2018 2018 11 PCB 2017 4 2025 2017 2 2016 12,20.90%,18.10%,15.10%,7.40%,6.80%,6.30%,25.40%688308 2009 1210 12 17 86 93HRA 500 1000 6266HRC 50100m/min PCD 800 25005000m/min CBN 1400 2021 54%18 19 2021 2000 500 2000 500 QY Research 2016 331 2022 390 2.7 2012-2016 320 2016 2021 477,63%,26%,2%,3%,4%,2%,54%,22%,18%,3%,2%,1%688308 2009 1210 13 20 21 QY Research 2012 2020 29%50%22 2023 2011 Hodrick-Prescott 2004 2005 2-2007 2 2007 2-2010 4 2010 4-2013 2 2013 2-2016 7 2016 7-2019 4 3-2.40%2.50%2.60%2.70%2.80%2.90%3.00%3.10%3003103203303403503603703803904002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0100200300400500600 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%0.00500.001000.001500.002000.002500.003000.002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020/688308 2009 1210 14 23 2023 IMC-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%:-50%0%50%100%150%200%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%:688308 2009 1210 15 24 25 2018 13.30%7.41%8.79%1.66%6.71%4.05%2018 4.41%2.02%-1.42%-1.56%0.54%0.75%2019-3.17%-0.83%-0.65%-0.65%-0.90%-0.56%688308 2009 1210 16 26 27 28 2013 28.8%2021 43.3%2025 50%80%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020406080100120140160-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 688308 2009 1210 17 29 30 2020 2022 28 24 34.6%31 32 2022 2800 1600 2022 1 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%日本 德国 美国 中国 89%90%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%98%0200040006000800010000120002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 00.511.522.533.544.552019 2020 2021 2022H1 688308 2009 1210 18 33 34 2022 9 2022 8 2022 0.99 28.4%6.49 10%35 IPO IPO 4,000 45,046 45,046 4,000 5,800 5,800 50,846 50,846 74,890 60,000 1,000 300 20 500 10 20,000 20,000 94,890 80,000+90%92%94%96%98%100%102%104%02004006008001000120014001600180020002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%01234562019 2020 2021 2022 YoY YoY 688308 2009 1210 19 2022 60 36 37 Wind 3C 1 2 3 2023-2025 2.6%2.8%2.9%2022 2022-2025 2023-2025 4.1%3.9%3.6%5.0%5.0%5.0%1 2022 2023 2023-2025 15%20%20%21%21.5%22%2 1 2 0123456789102017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()()0123456782017 2018 2019 2021 2022()()688308 2009 1210 20 3 2023-2025 41%35%30%47%47.5%48%3 2023-2025 20%20%38 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 34,534 39,707 53,227 40,505 46,581 55,897 67,077-7.97%14.98%34.05%-23.90%15.00%20.00%20.00%26,780 30,670 40,169 32,312 36,799 43,879 52,320 22.45%22.76%24.53%20.23%21.00%21.50%22.00%25,632 30,318 45,520 64,266 90,615 122,331 159,030 23.83%18.28%50.14%41.18%41.00%35.00%30.00%14,315 17,332 24,617 33,725 48,026 64,224 82,696 44.15%42.83%45.92%47.52%47.00%47.50%48.00%133 196 291 761 913 1,095 1,314-21.55%47.35%48.72%161.02%20.00%20.00%20.00%111 134 204 712 730 876 1,052 16.58%31.52%29.94%6.35%20.00%20.00%20.00%60,299 70,221 99,039 105,532 138,109 179,324 227,421 3.26%16.45%41.04%6.56%30.87%29.84%26.82%41,205 48,137 64,990 66,750 85,556 108,979 136,067 31.66%31.45%34.38%36.75%38.05%39.23%40.17%Wind 2023-2025 13.8 17.9 22.7 3.23 4.40 5.81 EPS 2.87 3.91 5.16 2023 30 PE 86.1 39 PE(2022)PE(2023E)PE(2024E)688059.SH 51 115.75 31 21 15 301377.SZ 78 18.97 35 26 20 688028.SH 34 30.99 54 29 21 40 25 19 688308.SH 63 55.65 26 19 14 Wind wind 2023 4 28 688308 2009 1210 21 688308 2009 1210 22 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 551 460 644 995 1,055 1,381 1,793 2,274 119 260 329 408 668 856 1,090 1,361 269 249 333 429 6 8 11 13 12 9 13 19 23 36 50 66 373 372 488 633 47 57 70 82 0 0 0 0 53 69 90 114 582 751 926 1,096-3 0-1-1 1,906 2,101 2,733 3,580-7-10-11-12 0 0 0 0-4-4-4-4 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 3 815 882 882 861 2 3 4 5 266 246 246 246 18 20 24 28 106 106 105 105 270 367 500 660 80 83 86 89 0 0 0 0 1,267 1,317 1,319 1,301 0 0 0 0 3,173 3,418 4,052 4,881 270 367 500 660 87 127 177 237 28 44 60 79 319 116 176 275 242 323 440 581 104 151 188 225 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 242 323 440 581 9 11 15 19 NOPLAT 240 323 439 579 3 3 3 3 EPS()2.15 2.87 3.91 5.16 3 3 3 3 114 150 193 241 639 561 755 1,003 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.6%30.9%29.8%26.8%66 66 66 66 EBIT 4.6%37.4%36.0%31.9%66 66 66 66 8.9%33.5%36.1%31.9%705 627 821 1,069 2,468 2,791 3,231 3,812 36.7%38.1%39.2%40.2%0 0 0 0 22.9%23.4%24.5%25.5%2,468 2,791 3,231 3,812 ROE 9.8%11.6%13.6%15.2%3,173 3,418 4,052 4,881 ROIC 13.2%16.6%19.5%21.6%22.2%18.3%20.3%21.9%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 6.3%7.0%7.6%8.0%173 182 392 528 3.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 323 429 553 694 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.9-101 1-115-145-22-113-154-177 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 300-156 98 136 68 67 58 60-327 22 10 21 56 54 56 55-745-319-266-246 174 157 142 148-520-152-113-93()0 0 0 0 2.15 2.87 3.91 5.16-225-167-153-153 1.54 1.62 3.48 4.69 834 46 58 69 21.92 24.78 28.69 33.85 80 40 50 60-72-3-3-4 P/E 26 19 14 11 800 0 0 0 P/B 3 2 2 2 26 9 11 13 EV/EBITDA 18 13 10 8 688308 2009 1210 23 CFA 5 7 2023 2019 2019 2022 Choice 祎 2023 688308 2009 1210 24 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 688308 2009 1210 25(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
