深度报告-20230606-华创证券-华厦眼科-301267.SZ-深度研究报告_医教研铸就高壁垒_全国扩张路径清晰_23页_2mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 06 06 301267 96 71.95 2004 57 23 17 46 2025 2522 2010 2022 23.66 YOY+5.4%73.2%2022 8.67 YOY-0.5%26.8%23-25 6.76 8.92 11.67 32.0%32.0%30.7%2023 6 2 23-25 PE 59 45 34 2024 2024 60 535 96 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()3,233 4,129 5,267 6,628(%)5.5%27.7%27.6%25.8%()512 676 892 1,167(%)12.5%32.0%32.0%30.7%()0.91 1.21 1.59 2.08()78 59 45 34()7.8 6.9 6.0 5.1 2023 6 5 S0360520110002 010-66500910 S0360522090003()56,000.00()5,999.90()402.92()43.17(%)23.26()9.39 12/94.88/56.46(12)-19%-1%17%35%22/11 22/12 23/01 23/03 23/04 23/062022-11-072023-06-05 300 2009 1210 23-25 6.76 8.92 11.67 32.0%32.0%30.7%2023 6 2 23-25 PE 59 45 34 2024 2024 60 535 96 2009 1210 3.5.6.6 1.7 2.8.10.12.12.14.14.15.16“”.18.19 2009 1210 4 1.5 2.5 3 2017-2022.6 4 2017-2022.6 5.6 6.7 7 2015-2025E.7 8.8 9.8 10 2015-2025E.8 11 2015-2025E.9 12.9 13.9 14 2015-2025E.10 15 2015-2025E.10 16.10 17.11 18 2017-2022.12 19 2022.12 20.12 21.14 22 2019-2022.14 23.15 24 2019-2022.15 25.16 26 2019-2022.17 27 2019-2022.17 28 2019-2022H1.17 29 2019-2022H1.17 30.18 31 PE.19 2009 1210 5 2004 57 23 17 46 1 2023 30.41%25.58%55.99%6 19.12%2 2004 20 2009 1210 6 2017 2022 32.33 2017-2022 CAGR 15.2%2022 5.12 2017-2022 CAGR 45.9%3 2017-2022 4 2017-2022 2025 725 2025 500 2025 339 2025 220 270 5 2019 2019 2025 E 2019-2025 CAGR 5.3 90 90 181 408 317 725 29%23%26%5.3 58 170 228 152 349 500 17%13%14%1.3 139 55 195 249 90 339 10%8%10%2.1 29 65 94 87 132 219 20%13%15%390 30 127 157 54 215 269 10%9%9%*55 128 182 153 316 469 19%16%17%15.97 21.46 24.56 25.15 30.64 32.33 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%-5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022营业收入（亿元）同比增速（右轴）0.771.642.183.344.555.120%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022归母净利润（亿元）同比增速（右轴）2009 1210 7 1761 402 636 1,037 1,103 1,419 2,522 18%14%16%*1 30 2019 5.3 Market Scope 2021 Refractive Surgery Market Report 2021 0.7 6 7 2015-2025E Market Scope:2021 Refractive Surgery Market Report&2022 2021 53,661 YOY+28.0%55,925 YOY+27.0%2022 17,845 YOY+2.8%15,596 YOY+2.1%2009 1210 8 8 9 10 2015-2025E 2 2019 1.26 CSR 1988 83 2017 2,205 CSR 2012 CSR 8000 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002019 2020 2021华厦眼科 普瑞眼科13500140001450015000155001600016500170001750018000185002019 2020 2021华厦眼科 普瑞眼科 2009 1210 9 11 2015-2025E 2019-2021 106,927/92,360/96,531 42,300/33,887/35,670 2021 7,110 YOY+13.0%8,044 YOY-0.03%12 13 500055006000650070007500800085002019 2020 2021华厦眼科 普瑞眼科 2009 1210 10 14 2015-2025E 15 2015-2025E 1 2022 32.33 161.10 17.26 5.51%7.39%0.91%16 2004 2003 2003 2022 57 23 215 148 118 24 17 46 167.14 2021 1125.12 2022 97.58 2021 29.28 2021 87.07 2022 9.16 2021 2022 4,841 21,056 2,078 2022 32.33 YOY+5.5%161.10+7.39%17.26 YOY+0.91%2022 10.73 9.09 7.51 3.97 63.37 13.39 10.55 21.43 37.79 14.15 9.71 2.33 2.49 2.60 0.01 0.11 2022 45%63%71%2009 1210 11 2022 5.08 YOY+11.9%26.89 YOY+8.87%0.21 YOY-78.09%2022 48.05%+2.01pct 50.46%-1.46pct 41.67%-1.70pct 2022 12.4%9.7%19.9%2022 15.7%16.7%1.2%2021 17 2021 21.93 2.60 2.52 2.21 0.42 0.40 20.81 19.56 18.60 47.31 4.90 10.64 11.06 3.47 5.09 2.32 3.16 1.82 1.16 2021 73%9%8%7%1%1%14%13%12%32%3%7%7%20%30%14%19%11%7%2017-21 CAGR 14%36%46%22%60%-14%26%19%36%26%29%20%18%18%20%24%21%13%56%2 2019 2022 49%2009 1210 12 18 2017-2022 19 2022“”“”“”1 20 2012 351 10 Nature Communication Ophthalmology FASEB J IOVS SCI 238 H 437 SCI 67 0%5%10%15%20%25%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022华厦眼科 爱尔眼科 普瑞眼科49%43%35%37%47%58%14%10%7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%华厦眼科 爱尔眼科 普瑞眼科工资及福利 业务宣传及推广费 其他 2009 1210 13 973 361 SCI 190 2002 400 SCI 160 20%2022 300 6 2 2022 87 161 27 2022 13 12 42 24 PI PI 3“”“”“”AAO APAO ASCRS ESCRS 2009 1210 14 21 2010 2022 23.66 YOY+5.4%73.2%2022 8.67 YOY-0.5%26.8%22 2019-2022 31.6%29.9%26.0%26.2%41.8%44.3%45.5%47.0%26.6%25.8%28.4%26.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022厦门眼科中心 华东其他区域收入 除华东外总收入 2009 1210 15 1 2004 2006 2012 2020 23 GCP 2022 11 2021 2021 70%2019-2022 7.77 7.52 7.98 8.47 2.35 2.39 2.18 2.29 30.3%31.8%27.3%27.0%24 2019-2022 7.77 7.52 7.98 8.47 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%7.00 7.20 7.40 7.60 7.80 8.00 8.20 8.40 8.602019 2020 2021 2022营 业收 入（亿 元）净利率 2009 1210 16 2 2022H1 2020 2 2021/2019-2022H1 25 2019 2020 2021 2022 1-6 2012 922 1,305 1,416 686 2016-543-868 19 526 2007-532 286 908 290 2017-32 166 494 235 2016-228 252 235 181 2015-60 1 74 121 2021-9 32 2016-540-282 188 29 2021-3 20 2016-140 27 192 7 2020-176-110 1 2002 10 2022 90.63%2022 1.62 1.5%2 2015 4 2022 95.47%2022 2009 1210 17 1.93 11.9%26 2019-2022 27 2019-2022 1 2015 8 2022 85%37,000 2022 5574 22.4%2 2014 9 2022 66%2022 CLASS CLASS 2022 5,868 7.4%28 2019-2022H1 29 2019-2022H1 2023 4 24 200 200 1.531.441.891.62-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.002019 2020 2021 2022营业收入（亿元）净利率（%，右轴）0.83 0.79 1.91 1.93-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.502019 2020 2021 2022营业收入（亿元）净利率（%，右轴）0.67 0.76 1.00 0.59-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%-0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.202019 2020 2021 2022H1营业收入（亿元）净利率（%，右轴）0.77 0.95 1.14 0.56 0%5%10%15%20%25%-0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.402019 2020 2021 2022H1营业收入（亿元）净利率（%，右轴）2009 1210 18 2019-2021 30.8%24.2%30 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2,515 3,064 3,233 4,129 5,267 6,628 yoy 2.4%21.9%5.5%27.7%27.6%25.8%40.8%44.6%48.0%48.6%49.0%49.4%1 2,472 3,007 3,130 3,975 5,035 6,280 yoy 2%22%4%27%27%25%40%44%48%49%49%50%727 958 1,073 1,442 1,955 2,553 yoy 20%32%12%34%36%31%48%53%55%55%55%55%824 932 909 1,136 1,364 1,636 yoy-7%13%-2%25%20%20%37%37%45%45%45%45%656 756 751 860 993 1,114 yoy-9%15%-1%15%15%12%31%36%38%38%38%38%265 361 397 536 723 976 yoy 18%36%10%35%35%35%53%56%56%56%56%56%2 43 58 103 155 232 348 yoy 74%36%78%50%50%50%68%71%45%45%45%45%2009 1210 19 23-25 41.29 52.67 66.28 27.7%27.6%25.8%6.76 8.92 11.67 32.0%32.0%30.7%2023 6 2 23-25 PE 59 45 34 31 PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,981 56 43 34 180 82 73 52 71 49 37 28 69 58 43 Wind Wind 2023 6 2 A 3 2024 PE 58 2024 60 535 96“”1 2 3 2009 1210 20 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,345 2,280 3,267 4,440 3,233 4,129 5,267 6,628 0 0 0 0 1,680 2,122 2,684 3,352 195 262 324 409 13 16 21 26 74 66 83 105 402 504 643 809 157 160 214 272 363 463 591 730 0 0 0 0 49 71 91 114 2,845 2,716 2,769 2,847 32 19 23 25 4,617 5,483 6,657 8,073-4-4-4-4 161 171 184 199-1-1-1-1 0 0 0 0 7 7 7 7 688 644 601 563 8 8 8 8 46 46 50 56 21 21 21 21 112 106 100 95 727 966 1,248 1,604 961 966 970 970 2 2 2 2 1,968 1,932 1,906 1,884 76 90 90 90 6,584 7,415 8,562 9,957 654 879 1,160 1,517 0 0 0 0 146 196 259 338 0 0 0 0 508 683 901 1,178 208 263 369 426-4 7 9 12 0 0 0 0 512 676 892 1,167 99 126 161 202 NOPLAT 532 698 919 1,197 96 96 96 96 EPS()0.91 1.21 1.59 2.08 97 97 97 97 290 349 447 560 790 930 1,170 1,380 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 26 35 45 54 0 0 0 0 5.5%27.7%27.6%25.8%641 641 641 641 EBIT 10.1%31.0%31.8%30.3%667 676 685 695 12.5%32.0%32.0%30.7%1,457 1,607 1,855 2,075 5,114 5,790 6,682 7,849 48.0%48.6%49.0%49.4%14 18 25 33 15.7%16.5%17.1%17.8%5,128 5,808 6,707 7,882 ROE 10.0%11.7%13.4%14.9%6,584 7,415 8,562 9,957 ROIC 32.9%32.9%32.7%32.2%22.1%21.7%21.7%20.8%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 14.9%13.3%11.7%10.0%770 1,031 1,088 1,274 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 743 843 1,061 1,333 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.7-32-3-54-58-49-57-79-106 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 29 55 106 56 21 20 20 20 79 193 54 48 44 40 42 43-3,037-101-97-94 30 27 25 26-229-91-93-94()0 0 0 0 0.91 1.21 1.59 2.08-2,808-11-5 0 1.37 1.84 1.94 2.27 2,651 5-4-7 9.13 10.34 11.93 14.02 10 9 9 9-2-19-23-25 P/E 78 59 45 34 2,771 0 0 0 P/B 8 7 6 5-128 14 10 9 EV/EBITDA 45 39 31 24 2009 1210 21 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2023 2021 2022 2022 2022 2023 2009 1210 22 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 23 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
