2009 1210 2023 05 30 300217 8 5.48 PTC PTC PTC PTC 40%PTC 3+pcts 24 PTC 32.5%13.5 PTC+06 PTC PTC 25/15%21 151%375/30%-40%16.0/40%/90%22 258.6%14.6 25 3 3714.2 4680 4680 4680 3000/25 8.3 1.6 50%5G 23-25 5.1/6.9/8.9 69.9%/33.6%/29.4%EPS 0.34/0.46/0.60 PE 16/12/9 DCF 8.0 23 24 PE ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()3,819 5,594 6,794 8,138(%)37.0%46.5%21.4%19.8%()302 513 685 886(%)73.7%69.9%33.6%29.4%()0.20 0.34 0.46 0.60()28 16 12 9()2.5 2.2 1.9 1.5 2023 5 29 S0360520100002 S0360522080001()148,770.65()123,668.11()81.51()67.77(%)52.44()2.26 12/8.70/4.14(12)-13%28%70%111%22/05 22/08 22/10 23/01 23/03 23/052022-05-302023-05-29 300 300217 2009 1210 40%24 PTC 1 PTC 25 375 15%30%-40%2 25 3 4680 5G 23-25 5.1/6.9/8.9 69.9%/33.6%/29.4%EPS 0.34/0.46/0.60 PE 16/12/9 DCF 8.0 23 24 PE 300217 2009 1210 3.7 PTC.10.10 PTC.12 24 PTC 13.5.14.16 PTC PTC.16 1 PTC.16 2.17.20 1.20 2.23 4680.27 1 4680.27 2.30.32.35.36 300217 2009 1210 4 1.7 2 2023 5 17.8 3.8 4.8 5.9 6.9 7.9 8 PTC.10 9.11 10 2020.11 11 PTC.11 12.11 13.11 14.12 15.12 16 PTC.13 17 PTC.13 18 PTC PTC.13 19 PTC PTC/.14 20 PTC.14 21 PTC PTC.14 22 PTC 100%.15 23 24 PTC.15 24 24 PTC 32.5%.15 25 PTC.16 26.17 27.17 28 PTC.17 29 PTC PTC.18 30 PTC.18 31 PTC.18 32.19 33.19 300217 2009 1210 5 34 PTC 30%-40%.19 35 2025E PTC.19 36 PTC.19 37 GW.21 38 GW.21 39.21 40.21 41.22 42.22 43 12.5%.22 44 12.5%.22 45.23 46.23 47.23 48 22H1.24 49 22H1.24 50.24 51.24 52.25 53.25 54.25 55.26 56.26 57.27 58 46 GWH.27 59.28 60.29 61.30 62.30 63.31 64.31 65.31 66.32 67.33 68.33 300217 2009 1210 6 69 2010-2018.33 70.33 71.34 72 50%.34 73 2022.34 74 2022.34 75.35 76.35 77.36 300217 2009 1210 7 1992 2000 2009 2011 1 34.7%2013 PTC 300217 2009 1210 8 2 2023 5 17 2016 9.3 2022 38.2 6 CAGR 26.6%2019 5G-167.4%-1.0 2022 3.0 73.7%3 4 Wind Wind-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0510152025303540452016年 2017 年 2018年 2019年 2020年 2021 年 2022 年 YoY-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52016年 2017 年 2018 年 2019 年 2020年 2021 年 2022年 YoY 300217 2009 1210 9 5 Wind 2022 13.1 6.1%2018 48.6%2022 34.2%2006 PTC 2020 2022 17.6 181.6%46.0%2016 20%2019 2022 7.2 0.6%6 7 Wind Wind-50%0%50%100%150%200%024681012141618202018年 2019 年 2020年 2021年 2022 年 YoY YoY YoY16.7%21.3%19.4%18.0%22.4%46.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017年 2018 年 2019年 2020 年 2021 年 2022年 300217 2009 1210 10 PTC PTC PTC 电 加 热管 和 PTC 电 加热 器。前 者 是将电 阻 丝 装在金属套管内并添加绝缘材料制成，虽然绝缘性较好，但发热时表面温度高达 600 容易着火。而后 者则 是改 用 PTC 材料，其 最高 温度 仅在 200 基本 不会 出现 着火 状 况，同 时由于其电阻较低，启动时的功率也相对较大，具有安全、节能等优点，是当前主流 的 电加热器。PTC 8 PTC PTC PTC PTC 5 10 10%2025 180 16%40%10%300217 2009 1210 11 9 10 2020 2020 PTC 2022 63 5 11 PTC 12 2021 2020+2019 TCL 2018+2017 19 TCL 13 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1-3 1 2 3 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0204060801001201401601802002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY,16.3%,9.3%,7.1%,2.9%,1.9%,62.5%0102030405060实用专利 发明专利 外观设计专利 授权专利 300217 2009 1210 12 4 5-8.4 9.9 11.3 11.6 3.1 48.6%44.2%50.4%48.5%49.6%PTC CR5 2015 80.5%2021 88.8%11.2%21Q1 15.4%2018 6.5pcts 14 15 Euromonitor PTC 2017 PTC PTC PTC 2021 32 PTC PTC 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 年 2019 年 2020年 2021年1-3 月 300217 2009 1210 13 16 PTC 17 PTC PTC PTC 18 PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC PTC 40%05101520253035东方电热 广东恒美 300217 2009 1210 14 19 PTC PTC/PTC PTC 2017 1.1%2020 8.6%PTC 20.6%PTC PTC 3pcts PTC 20 PTC 21 PTC PTC 24 PTC 13.5 PTC PTC 2017-2019 100%2020 0510152025302017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 PTC PTC0%5%10%15%20%25%2017 2018 2019 2020 PTC PTC PTC 5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 PTC PTC 300217 2009 1210 15 22 PTC 100%2021“6000 PTC”2024 2024 PTC 13.5 2021 21.3%PTC 32.5%23 24 PTC 24 24 PTC 32.5%24&2024 100%2030 9 2024 14.8%2027 8.3%7524.3 PTC 13.5&PTC 2024 PTC 4.5 13.5 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002017 2018 2019 2020 9.4%14.4%21.2%32.4%57.1%85.7%100.0%90.6%85.6%78.8%67.6%42.9%14.3%02468101214162018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E PTC PTC0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E PTC PTC PTC 300217 2009 1210 16 25 PTC 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 6000 30%80%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%1800 4800 6000 6000 6000 6000 6000 6000 6000 2.7 7.2 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 2.8 6.3 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7-4.0%12.8%14.8%14.8%14.8%14.8%14.8%14.8%14.8%-2448.9 5265.0 7439.8 7439.8 7439.8 7524.3 7524.3 7524.3 7524.3-9.0%7.3%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.3%8.3%8.3%8.3%3200 PTC 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 PTC 4.9 1.9 0.0-11.4 13.2 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 PTC PTC 4680 PTC PTC 1 PTC 23 850 25 1400 300217 2009 1210 17 26 27 PTC 55007000 PTC PTC 1 2 PTC-PTC PTC Ei5 PTC ID3 ID4 9000 PTC 28 PTC PTC 2 PTC 1 1 PTC COP 1 2 4 30%20%1000-1500 7000-8000-85%15%EV A EV EU5 B30EV Ei5 Marvel X P5 ID3 ID4 EDT 2 PTC PTC PTC PTC/PTC/PTC 2006 PTC-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%01002003004005006007008002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 300217 2009 1210 18 29 PTC PTC 30 PTC PTC 2006 PTC 2008 2022 10 PTC PTC 2022 60%0%PTC 31 PTC mm)205 140 125 192 141 110 VDC)350 350 mm Kg 2.65 2.35 S S W)6000 6500 CAN LIN/CAN/PWM PTC PTC 2020 24.00%7.5pct 11.36pct 4.14pct 2022 2.4 135.5%300217 2009 1210 19 32 33 25 22Q1 PTC 235.6%22 99 2020 350 PTC 375 2025 PTC 136 57 30-40%34 PTC 30%-40%35 2025E PTC&175 2025/2028 1 75 2022 8 2 100 2022 11 28 PTC 16 1.6 36 PTC 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 23%70%95%100%100%100%100%100%100%40.25 122.5 166.25 175 175 175 175 175 175 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%00.511.522.532018 年 2019年 2020年 2021 年 2022年 YoY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2018 2019 2020 募投项目建成0 50 100 150 200 250 300热交换器类空调压缩机管路PTC阀类HAVC 及控制类水泵其他冷却液+冷媒2025E 2025E 300217 2009 1210 20 175 175 175 175 175 175 30%50%80%100%100%100%52.5 87.5 140 175 175 175 175 175 175 350 350 350 350 350 350 23%70%95%65%75%90%100%100%100%/245 390 439 439 439 439 439 439 439 1.0 4.8 7.3 10.0 11.5 13.8 15.4 15.4 15.4 0.8 3.8 5.8 8.0 9.2 11.0 12.2 12.2 12.2 20.4%20.4%20.3%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%2012 9746 14816 20274 23393 28072 31191 31191 31191 10.4%10.4%10.3%10.3%10.3%10.3%10.3%10.3%10.3%1026 4969 7517 10287 11869 14243 15826 15826 15826 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 236%236%236%150%100%100%100%100%100%58.9025 59 59 37.5 25 25 25 25 25/245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 23%22%22%22%21%21%20%20%19%3303 3243 3178 1979 1293 1267 1242 1217 1193 13%12%12%12%11%11%10%10%9%1860.3 1797.2 1732.4 1060.7 680.7 654.9 629.5 604.7 580.3 99 182 225 265 288 340 375 375 375 2.4 6.2 8.7 10.9 12.1 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.0 245 343 388 412 422 425 426 426 426 21.88%21%21%20%20%20%20%20%20%5315 12989 17994 22254 24686 29339 32433 32408 32384 11.9%10.9%10.6%10.4%10.3%10.3%10.3%10.3%10.3%2886 6766 9250 11348 12550 14898 16455 16431 16406 1+300217 2009 1210 21 2011-2022 CAGR 18.3%2011 2.2GW 2022 86.1GW CAGR 39.6%37 GW 38 GW SiHCl3 90%39 40 CPIA 300-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%01020304050607080901002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002502011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY96.0%97.5%97.2%95.9%92.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 300217 2009 1210 22 1200 41 42 40%12.5%5 2/40%12.5%8%3%43 12.5%44 12.5%2019 2021 22 10 2021 275%22 11 23 1,25.5%20.2%12.3%13.9%12.5%15.6%,28.1%300217 2009 1210 23 45 46 Solarzoom 2 2013 2016-2017 45 60 1-2 47 05010015020025030035005101520253035404550 300217 2009 1210 24 22H1 36.5 80%48 22H1 49 22H1 CPIA 2018 2.7 2022 14.6 258.6%2018 50 51 Wind 90%90%40%60,29.4%,19.8%,18.3%,12.7%,19.8%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0000%50%100%150%200%250%300%02468101214162018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 300217 2009 1210 25 52 53 23 2023 30 22 23 24.7 4.1 23Q1 5.68 0.92 2021/2022 5.0%/12.7%2021/2022 7.0%/10.9%22 2021-2022 8.8%8.9%2.3 0.5 54 12,470 2022 6 25,600-26,800 18,150 2022 12 9,800-21,280 2023 2 26,240 2023 3 71,300 2023 5 27,860 2022 12 8 16,197 2023 5 25.6 21-22 8.8%2.3 10,800 2022 9 15,804 2023 4,40%,55%,5%,90%,10%300217 2009 1210 26 8,032-7,980-3,592 2023 3 5,586 2023 3 5.2 21-22 8.9%0.5“50”2019 120%22Q1 200%55 2025 3 12.4%56 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032-60%80%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%-1.8 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0-2029.8 2859.5 3714.2 3714.2 3714.2 3714.2 3714.2 3714.2 3714.2 3714.2-11.3%11.9%12.4%12.4%12.4%12.4%12.4%12.4%12.4%12.4%0%50%100%150%200%250%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002019 2020 2021 22Q1 300217 2009 1210 27 4680 2020 4680 1 4680 4680 57 1000 2000 3000 10%12%78%4680 2023 4680 4680 2023 58 46 GWH 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 16 30 50 50 50 10 10 10 10 10 16 30 40 40 40 0 10 30 60 100 10 10 10 10 10 60 120 120 LG 9 9 9 9 9 300217 2009 1210 28 0 11 11 11 11 1 8 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 20 40 110 110 110 2 20 30 30 30 96 190 384 474 514 4680 59 300217 2009 1210 29 2025 60 70 2023-2025 26/45/69 2023-2025 51/82/111 60 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E GWh 159 319 510 728 978 1277 GWh 227 455 728 1040 1397 1825 GWh 227 455 728 1040 1397 1825%23%18%19%20%28%35%GWh 52 82 138 208 391 639 2170%100%100%100%80%61%58%4680 0 0 0 41 152 265 4680%0%0%0%20%39%42%2170/GWh 889 889 889 889 889 889 4680/GWh 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 5 7 12 19 36 60%80%85%90%95%100%100%4 6 11 18 36 60 GWh 13 16 19 23 27 33 18650%90%85%80%75%75%75%2170%10%15%20%25%25%25%18650/GWh 1089 1089 1089 1089 1089 1089 2170/GWh 889 889 889 889 889 889 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.4%30%50%70%80%90%90%0.4 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.1 GWh 12.3 17.4 22.0 28 35 42%30%30%30%30%30%30%18650%100%100%100%100%100%100%18650/GWh 1089 1089 1089 1089 1089 1089%30%50%70%80%90%90%0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 9 12 18 26 45 69 YOY 36%47%42%76%53%/1.5 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.6 300217 2009 1210 30()14 18 33 51 82 111 YOY 36%76%58%59%36%markline 2 2016 20 2018 2019 2020 61 62-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.62018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 300217 2009 1210 31 63 TCC 2024 1 4680 2 3 64 10 TCC 4 3000/2 3500 2 2023 2 9 6 3000/0.36 2 25 6 65 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 120000 180000 260000 450000%3%8%12%12%3000 15,000 30,000 52,000/1.5 2.0 1.8 1.6 300217 2009 1210 32 0.5 3.0 5.4 8.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3-4,500 9,000 15,600 2022 8/5 2022 20 66 1,000 600 2,400 300 1,350 720 2,160 600 720 720 466 1,400 133 335 1,800 4,000 180 470 2,400 4,319 17,435 5G 光通信 行业以光纤光缆材料为主，产业链条 清晰成熟。光通信 主要是以光 纤 光缆为通信载体进行的信号传输，包括光纤光缆、光通信设备、网络运营商等多个环节，其中光 纤光缆作 为通 信传 输的 物质 基础，37%300217 2009 1210 33 67 68 2010-2018 3G 4G CAGR 16.4%4G 5G 2020 5G 2022 1331 69 2010-2018 70 2016 2019 5G 22 7.2 0.6%50%,37%,29%,26%,7%,1%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%02004006008001,0001,2001,4002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E YoY 300217 2009 1210 34 71 72 50%Wind 2022 CR6 64%73 2022 74 2022-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0123456782017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY,50%,50%,14.5%,11.6%,11.4%,9.7%,8.4%,8.4%,36.0%0123456789050100150200250300350400450 300217 2009 1210 35 75 76 C114 5G PTC PTC PTC 4680 4680 0204060801001201402017 2018 2019 2020 2021/0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 300217 2009 1210 36 77 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 13.1 13.9 14.3 14.6 YoY-6.1%6.0%3.5%2.0%16.9%16.8%16.7%16.6%2.4 6.2 8.7 10.9 YoY 135.5%154.5%41.2%25.0%21.9%22.6%22.4%22.2%14.6 25.0 31.3 39.1 YoY 258.6%71.5%25.0%25.0%25.9%26.5%27.5%28.0%0.6 3.0 5.4 8.3 YoY-50.0%423.4%80.0%54.1%14.9%18.0%21.0%23.0%7.2 7.6 7.9 8.1 YoY 0.6%5.0%4.0%3.0%11.1%11.3%11.5%11.6%38.2 55.9 67.9 81.4 YoY 37.0%46.5%21.4%19.8%20.2%21.4%22.3%23.1%3.0 5.1 6.9 8.9 YoY 73.7%69.9%33.6%29.4%Wind DCF 2%3.1%7%Beta 1.1 11.0%W ACC 10.8%DCF 8.0/23 24 PE 4680 300217 2009 1210 37 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,381 1,925 2,215 2,631 3,819 5,594 6,794 8,138 1,105 1,737 2,156 2,568 3,049 4,399 5,279 6,261 735 1,118 1,405 1,655 32 42 51 61 154 212 267 331 46 73 92 110 1,838 1,932 2,419 3,119 144 208 250 299 0 0 0 0 182 273 338 405 608 693 760 824-2 13 14 14 5,821 7,616 9,222 11,128-43-43-43-43 0 0 0 0-27-27-27-27 43 43 43 43 0 0 0 0 849 895 906 925 21 24 27 26 136 252 374 497 14 14 14 14 202 200 196 195 329 551 737 955 184 185 186 186 3 12 14 17 1,415 1,576 1,705 1,846 1 1 1 1 7,236 9,192 10,927 12,974 331 562 751 971 173 203 218 178 27 47 62 80 573 744 933 1,156 303 515 689 891 495 675 799 967 2 3 4 5 1 1 2 2 302 513 685 886 1,674 2,452 2,978 3,567 NOPLAT 301 528 702 903 279 279 279 279 EPS()0.20 0.34 0.46 0.60 57 57 57 57 607 891 1,084 1,301 3,860 5,303 6,350 7,507 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37.0%46.5%21.4%19.8%65 65 65 65 EBIT 57.0%75.2%33.0%28.7%65 65 65 65 73.7%69.9%33.6%29.4%3,925 5,367 6,415 7,572 3,294 3,807 4,492 5,377 20.2%21.4%22.3%23.1%17 17 20 24 7.9%9.2%10.1%10.9%3,311 3,824 4,512 5,402 ROE 9.2%13.5%15.2%16.5%7,236 9,192 10,927 12,974 ROIC 10.9%16.0%17.7%19.0%54.2%58.4%58.7%58.4%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 8.9%8.5%7.5%5.6%694 781 510 703 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 404 641 820 1,023 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1-699-93-488-700-265-1,044-735-699 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 242 350 315 390 63 60 67 68 1,012 927 598 689 50 48 50 51 59-274-247-259 176 154 148 159-239-272-247-259()-8 0 0 0 0.20 0.34 0.46 0.60 306-1 0 0 0.47 0.52 0.34 0.47 106 38 26-28 2.21 2.56 3.02 3.61-72 30 15-40-41-18-18-18 P/E 28 16 12 9 302 302 302 302 P/B 3 2 2 2-84-276-272-272 EV/EBITDA 20 12 10 8 300217 2009 1210 38 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 300217 2009 1210 39 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 300217 2009 1210 40(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522