(300679)/2023.01.20:()2023-01-19()38.75()3.56()9.70()4.22 12 SAC S0160522070002 2006 2017 2014 2022 32.02+12.14%4.80+35.75%2022 7%GPS FAKRA Mini-FAKRA HSD 20222025 77 129 CAGR 19%2022 5.5 7%5G LCP BTB 2026 172.38 CAGR 7.2%2022-2024 30.10/39.09/50.03 2023/1/19 38.75 4.72/5.65/7.80 PE 34.6/28.9/21.0“”Table_FinchinaSimple 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()2592 3246 3010 3909 5003%20.0 25.2-7.3 29.9 28.0 269 372 472 565 780%48.6 38.3 27.2 19.7 38.0 EPS/0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 PE 53.1 59.7 34.6 28.9 21.0-55%-43%-31%-19%-7%4%300(300679)/2023.01.20 2/ROE%7.5 9.6 9.9 10.6 12.7 PB 2.7 5.7 3.4 3.1 2.7 wind 3/1.6 1.1.6 1.2.6 1.3.8 1.4.9 2.11 2.1.11 2.2/.12 2.2.1.13 2.2.2.14 2.3.17 3 5G.19 3.1.19 3.1.1 70%.20 3.1.2 2023.21 3.1.3“+”.22 3.1.4“+”.24 3.2.24 3.3 5G“+BTB”.26 4.29 5.31 1.6 2.2022 Q3.7 3.8 4.9 5.2018-2022Q3.9 6.2018-2022Q3.9 4/7.2018-2022H1.10 8.2018-2022H1.10 9.2018-2022Q3.10 10.2018-2022Q3.10 11.11 12.13 13.ADAS.13 14.Mini-Fakra.14 15.15 16.18 17.18 18.19 19.20 20.2007 2021.20 21.21 22.20192023.21 23.22 24.22 25.2014-2025E.22 26.2016-2022E.22 27.23 28.23 29.2017-2026E.24 30.2022-2026.24 31.2021-2026.25 32.2021-2026.25 33.26 34.26 35.26 36.5G.27 37.5G.27 38.5G.27 39.28 5/40.29 41.BTB.29 1.7 2.12 3.12 4.HSD.15 5.16 6.17 7.25 8.20222024.30 9.31 6/1 1.1 2006 2017 2006-2008 2009 2010 8 PCS 2011-2012 6G 1.5mm 2013 2014 2019 SAP 2021 32 1.2 2022 30.54%1.RFRF RF RF4 PCS.RF RF 8 PCS.6G 1.5mm RF 27 PO 29 26 SAP 20 RMB RMB 7/()()()()()1999-2008 TCL 1.Wind 1966 2006 2021 11 2018 11 2018 12()2020 4 2021 5 2021 12 1972 1999 2002 2002 2008 TCL 2009 2018 10 2018 10()2018 11 2021 12 2020 4 2021 12 1975 1995 2001;20012006,;2006;2019 7;2021;2019 8();2019 11;2019 12;2020 7;2021 12 2.2022 Q3 Wind 8/1.3 POGOPIN PCB 5G/FPC LVDS MTCC 1 2 3 BTB Sub-6G 4 Fakra&HD Camera HSD&USB T ER 1 3.2022 9/360 Fakra 4 4.2022 1.4 2022Q3 2018-2021 13.41 32.46 2.4 3.72 2021 5G 2022 22.14 8.94%4.13 45.74%5.2018-2022Q3 6.2018-2022Q3 Wind Wind-20%0%20%40%60%80%0102030402018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 YOY-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0123452018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 YOY 10/2018 2022 H1 25%202138.94%2022H1 39.48%2022 4.57 32.3%4.57 31.0%2.15 2021 9.6%14.6%7.2018-2022H1 8.2018-2022H1 Wind Wind 2018 2022 3%-4%2020 8%-10%2018 1.33 2021 2.85 2022 2.13 9.2018-2022Q3 10.2018-2022Q3 Wind Wind 39.0%32.5%30.3%25.2%32.3%9.6%14.6%16.5%13.3%11.9%13.8%47.0%35.9%37.6%32.9%31.0%14.0%15.1%18.8%20.4%8.4%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1-5%0%5%10%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 0%5%10%15%0.001.002.003.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3()0%10%20%30%40%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 11/2 2.1 Bishop&Associate 2021 779.91 23.47%21.86%13.13%11.Bishop&Associate 60V 60V-380V 5G Fakra MiniFakra HSD 01002003004005006007008009002019 2020 2021/12/2.60V BMS 60V-380V 10A-30A PBU OBC DC/DC PTC/Fakra Mini-Fakra HSD GPS Wi-Fi 2.2/Fakra Mini-Fakra HSD ADAS Fakra Mini-Fakra 3.Fakra FAKRA-40 C+105 C RoHS WEEE ELV GPS Mini-Fakra 20GHz 28 Gbit/s 80%4K 4K 3D HM()HSD USB EEE 1394 13/100Mbps-1 Gbps TC2 TC9 LVDS&(20 GHz 28 Gbps)4K 4K Rosenberger 2.2.1 Yole L2 6 L4 13 Yole 2024 100 2027 530 445 ADAS Yole 2027 3%12.13.ADAS Yole Yole 671302468101214L2 L3 L43.3 4.2 6.822.144.783.2145.6262445.40.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%0501001502002503003504004505002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 14/ADAS 120 200 ET7 ONE G9 800 2.2.2 Mini-Fakra Fakra 4GHz&8GHz 28GHz Fakra Mini-Fakra Mini-Fakra Mini-Fakra HFM 20GHz 28Gbps Fakra Mini-Fakra 80%14.Mini-Fakra HFM ADAS ADAS 15/15.TE HSD Mini-Fakra AVM HSD HSD HSD HSD 4.HSD TE GEMnet TE HSD/15GHz 56 Gbps 90/180/1 2 4,6 686-3 X9305 H-MTD USCAR 6 Gbps EEE802.3ch AP X GMSL2/3 TC9 100BaseT1 1000BaseT1 NGBaseT1 FPD Link V PC e M P GMSL1 FPD-Link/V AP X2 USB 2.0 16/HDBaseT ASA 4K 8K/USB W F TE 2025 129 CAGR 19%1 2022 2750 2025 3000 3%2 S&P 2025 L2/L2+L3 2025 3 L2/L2+800 L3 1150 L4 1500 5.2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2,625 2,750 2,831 2,914 3,000 L2/L2+31%35%40%46%52%L2/L2+800 800 800 800 800 L2/L2+64.3 76.9 90.3 106.2 124.8 L3 0%0.00%0.10%0.30%0.5%L3 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 L3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 L4 0%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.5%L4 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 L4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.3 64.3 77.3 91.5 108.5 128.8 S&P Fakra 17/Fakra Fakra Mini-Fakra 6.EMC FAKRA Mini FAKRA HSD FAKRA GPS1 GSM HSD HM12 IEC61076-2-109 M12 IP67 I SOI 1801 Ea FAKRA 360 HSD/./2.3 Fakra HSD&HD HSL USB GPS USB HDM 18/16.2015 2015 17.2021 19/3 5G 3.1 BTB Sub-6G FPC FPC LCP FPC LCP 18.2022 20/3.1.1 70%DC 2020 Gartner 2018 19.20.2007 2021 DC Gartner iOS 2014 2016 StatCounter 2020 70%0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00450.00500.00Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 15Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 16Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 17Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 18Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Apple Samsung Xiaomi OPPO vivo ZTE*Nokia*Huawei*LG*Sony*RIM*HTC Lenovo*Others0.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.001,400.001,600.001,800.00200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 21/21.StatCounter 3.1.2 2023 2022 1.89 TrendForce 2021 2.46 2022 1.89 TrendForce 2023 2023 CPU 2023 1.76-6.9%22.20192023 TrendForce 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%Android iOS KaiOSWindows Phone Series 40(Nokia)*Symbian OS*Samsung BlackBerry OS163.7206.1246.1189.6176.60%25.9%19.4%-23.0%-6.9%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0501001502002503002019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E出货量 年成长率 22/IDC 2022 DC 2022 6.8%1.57 23.24.Statista DC 3.1.3+/DC 2021 5.34 2025 13.58 2020 2025 CAGR+25%2016 0.4 2020 1.1 29.02%DC 2021 1.4 25.4%3753 23.9%DC 2022 1.6 18.5%25.2014-2025E 26.2016-2022E DC DC Gartner 2019 461 2022 938.6-0.3-0.25-0.2-0.15-0.1-0.0500.050.10.150.201002003004005006007008009002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%200.00%250.00%300.00%350.00%050100150200250 024681012141620142015201620172018201920202021 2025CAGR=25%0.40.60.71.01.11.41.60.00.51.01.52.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 23/19.4%31.9%27.Gartner Statista 2019-2022 2026 616.9 CounterPoint 2021 1.28 23.8%2022 Q1 13%2022 Q2 Q3 300%2022 Q3 30%Statista 2027/616.9/263.6 2021 2027 CAGR 8.39%/11.32%28.Statista 010020030040050060070080090010002019 2020 2021*2022*12.6718.4623.7432.0538.0538.6044.9149.1553.3857.6161.693.705.887.8910.9813.8514.5117.8219.9122.0324.2226.360.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 24/3.1.4+2026 1952 Statista 2020 787.7 2021 1044 2022 1157 2026 1952 2021 2026 CAGR 13.33%DC 2021 8.96 2026 14.4 CAGR 10%2022-2026 Statista 2021 201 2022 236.3 2026 426 CAGR 16.20%DC 2021 2.2 9.2%20 22 2.6 17.1%29.2017-2026E 30.2022-2026 Statista DC 3.2 2021 48.88 2026 63.29 2021-2026 CAGR 5.3%2021 121.76 2026 172.38 2021 2026 CAGR 7.2%398.2534.3675.8787.710441157136215581755195205001000150020002500 25/31.2021-2026 32.2021-2026 2021 2021 1976 5 7.(mm)(VSWR)03GHz 36GHz USS V 1.0 1.3 1.4(Murata)NMM04-PJ0001B 1.0 1.3 1.4(Hirose)X.FL-LP(P)-068 1.0 1.3 1.4(Dai-ichi Seiko)MHF5 1.0 1.3 1.5 48.8851.4754.257.0660.163.290102030405060702021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026121.76130.53139.95150160.5172.380501001502002021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 26/33.2021 3.3 5G+BTB 2022 H1 34.35.Wind Wind 5G 5G 5G 5G Sub-6 GHz 6.247.679.6510.684.572.87 2.803.474.081.92-0.2-0.15-0.1-0.0500.050.10.150.20.250.30.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 5.176.967.798.194.771.691.932.512.731.50-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 27/5G Speedtest by Oolak 5G Sub-6 GHz 6 GHz 4 LTE 20 5G 5G 36.5G 37.5G Qualcomm Qualcomm 38.5G GSMA 5G LCP 5G LCP BTB 5G 5G LCP PCB 2019 2021 2.85%13.26%17.52%28/39.Wind iPhone BTB iPhone7 7 iPhone XS 14-16 BTB 7-10 BTB iphone XS BTB 15 10 BTB 1-3 BTB 4G 5G sub-6GHz mmWave 5G 2 4 8 16 1-2 BTB BTB FPC BTB BTB 2 5G 3.543.423.862.030.100.450.680.26-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.502019 2020 2021 2022H1 29/5G BTB BTB 5G BTB BTB 40.41.BTB 4 FPC BTB 2022-2024 30.10/39.09/50.03-7.2%/29.9%/28.0%33.36%/35.03%/36.02%1 2022 2022-2024 9.08/10.26/11.90-15%/13%/16%2 30/2022-2024 7.86/8.49/9.42-4%/8%/11%3 BTB BTB BTB LCP 2022+2022-2024 7.67/8.85/10.31-26.8%/15.4%/16.6%4 20222024 5.5/11.5/18.4 76%/109%/60%8.20222024 1、合计收 入及 毛利 率 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 总收入（百 万元）2,160.7 2,592.5 3,245.5 3,010.2 3,909.3 5,003.4 YOY 61.1%20.0%25.2%-7.2%29.9%28.0%毛利率 26.90%30.36%32.05%33.36%35.03%36.02%毛利（百万 元）581.23 787.08 1040.18 1004.15 1369.59 1802.48 汽车连 接器（百万 元）93 312 550 1,150 1,840 yoy 236.21%76.12%109.09%60.0%毛利率 36.0%38.9%40.0%42.0%43.0%毛利（百万 元）33.44 121.61 220.00 483.00 791.20 射频连 接器及 线缆（百万元）767 965 1,068 908 1,026 1,190 yoy 22.9%25.8%10.7%-15.0%13.0%16.0%毛利率 36.5%36.0%38.2%38.0%38.0%38.0%毛利（百万 元）279.79 347.26 408.29 344.87 389.70 452.05 电磁兼 容件（百万 元）696 779 819 786 849 942 yoy 34.6%11.8%5.1%-4.0%8.0%11.0%毛利率 27.7%32.2%33.3%34.0%35.0%34.0%31/毛利（百万 元）192.92 251.01 272.51 267.27 297.14 320.41 软板（百万元）354 342 386 390 433 489 yoy-3.2%12.7%1.0%11.0%13.0%毛利率 2.8%13.3%17.5%19.0%19.0%20.0%毛利（百万 元）9.91 45.55 67.63 74.10 82.25 97.84 其他（百万元）343.73 413.72 660.7 377 452 542 yoy 53.0%9.0%59.7%-43.0%20.0%20.0%毛利率 28.7%26.5%25.8%26.0%26.0%26.0%毛利（百万 元）98.61 109.82 170.15 97.91 117.49 140.99 DC 2022-2024 PE 42.3/30.4/22.5 2023 1 19 38.75 2022-2024 PE 34.6/28.9/21.0 9.归母 净 利润（亿元）PE 公 司名 称 股 票代 码 市值 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 瑞可达 688800.SH 113.1 2.7 4.1 5.8 42.4 27.9 19.4 航天电器 002025.SZ 295.0 6.3 8.2 10.7 47.2 35.8 27.7 永贵电器 300351.SZ 60.9 1.6 2.2 3.0 37.4 27.5 20.5 平均 42.3 30.4 22.5 电连技术 300679.SZ 163.6 4.7 5.7 7.8 34.6 28.9 21.0 Wind Wind 2023/1/19 5 1 2 3 32/Table_FinchinaDetail()2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2592.48 3245.72 3010.22 3909.30 5003.43:1805.38 2205.54 2006.07 2539.72 3200.95 20.0%25.2%-7.3%29.9%28.0%16.68 24.11 22.36 29.04 37.17 60.7%32.1%26.8%19.7%38.0%94.38 122.31 92.36 143.41 173.54 48.6%38.3%27.2%19.7%38.0%139.09 216.45 170.65 252.89 313.66 EB TDA 64.6%54.3%6.3%20.9%33.3%274.20 284.95 258.26 371.38 475.33 EB T 81.3%46.1%19.4%24.6%39.7%-12.43-2.03 19.82 7.13 10.87 NOPLAT 75.3%48.5%18.2%24.6%39.7%-7.54-3.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.5%30.6%18.9%9.9%12.4%:0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.8%11.6%22.3%11.3%14.0%28.77 15.39 69.24 43.00 50.03 313.43 413.97 524.98 628.29 866.97 30.4%32.0%33.4%35.0%36.0%:-7.09 3.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.1%12.8%17.4%16.1%17.3%306.33 417.16 524.98 628.29 866.97 10.6%11.7%15.7%14.5%15.6%:32.30 37.85 52.50 62.83 86.70 EB TDA/14.3%17.7%20.3%18.9%19.6%268.74 371.59 472.48 565.46 780.27 EB T/10.5%12.3%15.8%15.2%16.5%()2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1757.10 1464.28 2734.25 2359.59 3781.88 100 86 105 77 56 500.00 615.38 615.38 615.38 615.38 118 132 102 171 90 658.93 820.88 517.00 1220.47 1003.28 513 428 547 511 474 71.84 68.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 85 82 80 80 80 15.79 9.57 8.71 11.02 13.89 87 83 65 65 65 489.62 533.36 191.06 726.06 429.84 619 590 750 651 576 19.35 15.23 15.23 15.23 15.23 518 540 693 586 515 ROE 7.5%9.6%9.9%10.6%12.7%0.00 499.15 499.15 499.15 499.15 ROA 5.7%6.3%7.1%7.5%9.2%74.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RO C 6.6%7.5%7.5%8.5%10.6%708.47 763.67 869.95 825.18 772.21 106.91 140.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.6%3.8%3.1%3.7%3.5%46.71 157.87 157.87 157.87 157.87 5.4%6.7%5.7%6.5%6.3%45.54 40.30 40.30 40.30 40.30-0.5%-0.1%0.7%0.2%0.2%4710.81 5932.47 6609.42 7525.19 8498.85/8.5%10.4%9.4%10.3%10.0%0.00 492.39 492.39 492.39 492.39 553.20 544.78 569.70 841.25 937.06 22.4%31.2%24.5%26.2%25.4%269.55 212.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.9%45.4%32.4%35.4%34.1%0.39 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 3.48 2.29 3.16 3.08 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.98 1.88 2.93 2.59 3.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 398.94 13.80 17.19 24.02 1055.71 1851.62 1619.02 1969.33 2162.71 81.32 214.93 214.93 214.93 214.93 DPS()0.40 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 280.80 421.20 483.95 483.95 483.95 1342.99 1602.26 1923.85 2489.31 3269.58 1.2%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%3655.10 4080.85 4990.41 5555.87 6336.14 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E EPS()0.64 0.88 1.12 1.34 1.85 268.74 371.59 472.48 565.46 780.27 BVPS()12.73 9.18 11.31 12.65 14.50:99.06 175.21 134.07 144.77 154.96 PE(X)53.1 59.7 34.6 28.9 21.0 15.13 12.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 PB(X)2.7 5.7 3.4 3.1 2.7 0.00-0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 P/FCF 12.82 5.40 34.47 34.47 34.47 P/S 3.7 6.8 6.2 4.8 3.7-28.77-15.39-69.24-43.00-50.03 EV/EB TDA 21.0 37.3 23.5 20.0 13.5 5.30 7.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 CAGR(%)64.90-39.69 326.34-984.89 589.05 PEG 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.5 0.6 440.56 518.70 898.12-283.19 1508.72 RO C/WACC 200.80-1153.43-30.76-57.00-51.97 REP-43.09 344.36 402.61-34.47-34.47 wind 33/10%5%10%-5%5%-5%