table_main 2023 2 2 2023/1/16-2023/2/15 2 25BP disinflation 1 25bps 50bps 50bps 25BP 1 1 PMI-M2 2 2023 1 2023 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2023 M2 12.6%-M2-3.2%11 010-8092 7620 liudan_ S0130513050003 2023/1/30 2023/1/13 2022/12/19 2022 12 2022/12/16 2023 2022/12/7 12 2022/11/16 2022 11 2022/11/3 2022 11 2022/10/27 2022/10/24 2022 10 2022/10/24 9 2022/9/30 9 PMI 2022/9/27 2023 2 16 2 2023/1/16-2023/2/15.3.4.4 1 25BP.4 2 1.4 3.5 1.6 1 PMI.6 2 1-M2.7 3 CPI PPI CPI PPI.9.11 1 1 2023.11 2.11 3 2023.12 4.12.13 2023/1/16-2023/2/15.13 1.13 2.16 3.17.20 3 2023/1/16-2023/2/15 2 25BP disinflation 1 27.9%4.4%2.6%-1.7%11.3%3.9%4.6%-0.4%-0.5%1 1.66%8%5%2%1.8%1.6%1.3%1.1%500 8.9%5.3%-0.5%5.3%A 300 2.7%2.2%1.2%3.1%2%-5.8%-4.3%1.5%10Y 2BP 2.89%10Y 3.81%10-92BP 1 16 1000 6.82 1 Wind-60-40-20 0 20 COMEX SHFE COMEX COMEX CRB NYMEX SHFE 12 16-1 15 1 16-2 15-10-5 0 5 10 10Y 10Y 12 16-1 15 1 16-2 15-15-5 5 15 MOEX 300 SENSEX30 100 STOXX50 500 225 12 16-1 15 1 16-2 15 4 1 2 5 B P 2 1 23 25BP 4.50%-4.75%2%2%2.0%2Y 12bp 4.09%10Y 13bp 3.39%70bp 102.1 101.1 22 4 2 1 2 14 1 CPI 6.4%6.2 6.5 CPI 0.5%CPI 5.6 2021 12 5.5%5.7%1 CPI CPI CPI 0.1 1 CPI BLS CPI 44.4%0.34%13.53%1.4%14.7%1 2 3 Wind Wind 5.806.006.206.406.606.807.007.207.4011.522.533.544.5:10%:10%:5.56.06.57.07.5-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0 5 CPI 3.1%CPI 1 disinflation 1-2 CME 3 5 6 25BP 87.8%74%46.56%2%2023 2024 0.6%0.22%10 3.732%0.46%500 0.03%0.57%0.01%103.26 0.25%1.2175 3 1)1 19 2.75%2)1 19 2.75%3)1 25 25 4.5%4)2 1 25 4.5%-4.75%5)2 2 50 3.00%3.25%2.50%6)2 2 50 4%2021 12 7)2 7 25 3.35%2022 5 8)2 8 25 6.50%2018 12 2022 4 6 250 9)2 10 50 3%4 2 5 CPI Wind Wind 024686M 1Y 2Y 10Y-249142019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/01 CPI 6 10)2 14 1 1 P M I 2023 1 EPMI PMI 7%5.5%5.2%3%7.5%47.6%1 PMI 1 2%PMI 1 14.6%12.8%54%54.4%PMI 2%56.4%2023 1 2023 2023 1 1 PMI 6 2 PMI 7 2 PMI Wind Wind 3540455055602020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/12 PMIPMI 35455565752020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/12 PMI PMI PMI PMI 7 Wind 2 1 PMI PMI Wind 2 1-M2 PMI 50.10 3.10 0.00-0.13EPMI 50.90 4.10 2.50 1.05 52.90 10.30 1.90 0.40 54.40 12.80 3.30 1.33 54.00 14.60 3.70 1.98 56.40 2.00 1.00-2.60 47.20 2.50 1.20-0.63 48.60 2.20-1.90-1.20 52.30 4.00 0.70 0.95 P M I 大 类 指 数 PMI 2019-2022 2019-2022 49.80 5.20-1.10-1.85 54.40 12.80 3.30 1.33 50.90 7.00 1.60 0.25 52.50 13.40 4.70 2.98 46.10 1.90-2.30-2.45 45.90 1.40-0.10-2.08 44.50 1.40-1.30-1.27 64.90 11.20 7.00 6.85 47.20 0.60-0.80-0.32 51.50 2.30-0.60-1.47 50.40 5.50 0.20-0.33 48.30 0.80-2.70-2.38 46.70 3.00-0.50-1.58 46.70 3.80-0.20-1.27 52.20 0.60-4.20-3.70 43.30 0.30-0.60-0.58 49.60 2.50 0.50 1.28 47.70 2.30 0.70 0.40 47.70 2.90-1.20-0.45 49.70 9.30 0.50-0.92 47.60 7.50 0.00-1.50 2019-2022 55.60 3.70-1.90-0.85 56.40 2.00 1.00-2.60 57.40 8.60 4.10 3.87 68.20 6.70 3.80 6.48EPMI 2019-2022 55.30 4.10 1.70-0.40EPMI 50.90 4.10 2.50 1.05 52.80 2.80-1.00 0.10 55.80 6.40 4.10 0.72 53.10 7.40 3.90 0.50 51.50 7.10 4.40 1.72 2019-2022 47.40 4.80-4.70 0.05 54.00 14.60 3.70 1.98 45.20 3.60 1.90-0.20 51.60 14.20 4.80 2.78 60.50 4.90-2.60 1.03 64.30 12.00 7.60 6.93 54.90 4.10 3.30 4.60 50.90 2.00-0.90-1.58 43.30 1.20-1.70-2.48 47.50 0.50-3.00-2.80 45.50 3.10-1.00-1.65制造业PMI细项 非制造业PMI及细项EPMI 8 1 9.4%0.2 59800 56800 1959 7312 14485 4352 1 14000 8807 5000 5915 1 5858 1/4 3429 5000 2022 3.8 7.5 50%1 1 2 2-M2 M2 12.6%-M2-3.2%11 3 Wind 350.93 9.40-0.20-0.40 218.19 11.10 0.20 0.10M2 273.81 12.60 0.80-0.60-M2 77.12-3.20-1.00 0.20社融结构（当月）当月值（亿元）同比多增（亿元）当月新增占比%上月同比多增（亿元）59800.00-1959.00-10522.00 49300.00 7312.00-373.25 4051.00-131.00-1162.00 59.32-1016.00+1168.00 312.00-15.93 630.00 2963.00-1770.00 90.35 865.00 1486.00-4352.00 222.15-7054.00 964.00-475.00 24.25-408.00 4140.00-1886.00 96.27-8865.00+51586.00 14648.00-747.73 2301.00+53718.00 14485.00-739.41 2523.00 2572.00-5858.00 299.03-1963.00 贷款结构 当月值（亿元）同比多增（亿元）占当月贷款比重%上月同比多增（亿元）49000.00 9200.00 2700.00 37231.00 8807.00 0.76 7024.00 11314.00-1580.00 0.23-2573.00 46800.00 13200.00 0.96 6017.00 35000.00 14000.00 0.71 8717.00 15100.00 5000.00 0.31 638.00-4127.00-5915.00-0.08-2941.00 2572.00-5858.00 0.05-1963.00 2231.00-5193.00 0.05-1693.00 341.00-665.00 0.01-270.00 9 4 Wind 3 CPI P PI CPI P P I 1 CPI 2.1%1.8%4.8%1 6.2%1.2%CPI 0.8%2.8%-0.2%0.3%1 CPI 1 CPI 10.8%22.2%11.8%1 2022 12-8%6.7%,13.1%2.7%CPI CPI 0.4%7.3%1.0%11.2%2.3%0.2 0.1 CPI 1 PPI 1.4%1.5%0.3%PPI-5.5%350.93 9.40-0.20-0.40 218.19 11.10 0.20 0.10M2 273.81 12.60 0.80-0.60-M2 77.12-3.20-1.00 0.20社融结构（当月）当月值（亿元）同比多增（亿元）当月新增占比%上月同比多增（亿元）59800.00-1959.00-10522.00 49300.00 7312.00-373.25 4051.00-131.00-1162.00 59.32-1016.00+1168.00 312.00-15.93 630.00 2963.00-1770.00 90.35 865.00 1486.00-4352.00 222.15-7054.00 964.00-475.00 24.25-408.00 4140.00-1886.00 96.27-8865.00+51586.00 14648.00-747.73 2301.00+53718.00 14485.00-739.41 2523.00 2572.00-5858.00 299.03-1963.00 贷款结构 当月值（亿元）同比多增（亿元）占当月贷款比重%上月同比多增（亿元）49000.00 9200.00 2700.00 37231.00 8807.00 0.76 7024.00 11314.00-1580.00 0.23-2573.00 46800.00 13200.00 0.96 6017.00 35000.00 14000.00 0.71 8717.00 15100.00 5000.00 0.31 638.00-4127.00-5915.00-0.08-2941.00 2572.00-5858.00 0.05-1963.00 2231.00-5193.00 0.05-1693.00 341.00-665.00 0.01-270.00 8-M2 10Y 9 Wind Wind 2468-32712172018-08 2020-01 2021-05 2022-09:%-M2:%M2:%10y%-10001002003004005006002020/03 2020/09 2021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09%+10 1.5%PPI 1.1 10 CPI 11 PPI Wind Wind 12 CPI 13 CPI Wind Wind 14 PPI Wind-6-2261014CPI:CPI:CPI:CPI:(CPI):-6-1491419 PPI:PPI:PPI:4.70 0.50-0.10 1.60 2.00 2.40 0.80 3.70 0.50-0.20 1.50 2.80 1.40 0.60-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.00 2023-012022-126.70 13.10 2.70 11.80 5.50-8.00 11.00 2.60 22.20 10.40-10-50510152025 2023-012022-12-6-5-4-3-2-1 0 1 2黑色金属 冶炼及 压延加 工业燃气 生产 和供 应 业电力、热 力的生 产和供 应业有色金属 冶炼及 压延加 工业化学纤维 制造业煤炭开采 和洗选 业计算机、通信和 其他电 子设备 制造 业化学原料 及化学 制品制 造业农副食品 加工业石油、煤 炭及其 他燃料 加工业石油和天 然气开 采业1 月环比增速 11 1 1 2 023 2 13 2023 2023 1.3 2 2023 10 12()3 2 0 2 3 1 5 30 3.8%3.7%2 10 2 0 2 3 16 30%20%30%40%20%30%144 50%5 2000 5000 18 703 4 1 28 13 2 2 6 1 M2 12.6%-M2-3.2%11 2023/1/16-2023/2/15 1 7 39650 12720 11 7 shibor3M 1Y AA+-6BP 2BP 3BP 2.2%2.38%2.71%7 16BP 1 3 6 9BP 41BP 10BP 15 14 5 6BP 5BP 2.69%2.86%10 2BP 1BP 2.89%3.05%Wind 16 17 Wind Wind 18 19 Wind Wind 20-21-1.002.003.004.00:7:7 SHIBOR:3(AA+):1(AA+):3 10 MLF:1 DR0076.06.57.01.02.03.04.05.06.02020/9/152020/11/152021/1/152021/3/152021/5/152021/7/152021/9/152021/11/152022/1/152022/3/152022/5/152022/7/152022/9/152022/11/152023/1/15:7:2.73.23.74.22019-12-29 2020-12-29 2021-12-29 2022-12-29:1:3:6 1.92.12.32.52.72.97D 6M 9M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y%2023-02-15 2023-01-162022-12-15 2022-11-162.42.62.83.03.23.43.63.82021-10-272021-11-272021-12-272022-01-272022-02-272022-03-272022-04-272022-05-272022-06-272022-07-272022-08-272022-09-272022-10-272022-11-272022-12-272023-01-2710 5 5 AAA 1 5 10 5 1.5%-0.64%10 5 2 0.52%0.25%0.11%2 15 AA 1 1YAA 1YAA 45BP 29BP AA Wind Wind 5 Wind 6 020406080100120140-3Y-5Y-10Y010203040506070-3Y-5Y-10Y 1Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 1Y 3Y 5Y 7YAAA 2.72 3.12 3.40 3.50-6.34-9.22-13.92-4.64AA+3.44 3.75 3.93 4.04-13.34-17.23-18.92-8.64AA 3.84 4.17 4.35 4.46-16.34-10.23-11.92 10.70AA-5.52 6.27 6.60 6.78-13.34-6.23-7.92 12.02AAA 2.71 3.11 3.38 3.50-2.47-7.27-14.28 0.70AA+2.81 3.43 3.74 3.90-12.47-9.27-16.28 0.76AA 3.07 3.88 4.20 4.36-22.47-4.27-17.28 6.62AA-5.50 6.31 6.62-19.47-1.27-15.28-AAA 2.73 3.10 3.35 3.55-5.40-12.97-18.46-1.58AA+3.72 2.84 3.42 3.62-13.42-21.96-21.46-2.59AA 3.00 3.95 4.22 4.56-39.42-15.96-16.46 7.60AA-5.55 6.84 7.15 7.49-8.42-0.96-3.46 20.14AAA 2.71 3.11 3.38-6.62-7.27-14.28-AA+3.01 3.67 4.00-12.05-8.37-15.70-AA 4.53 4.75 5.14-23.62-8.97-25.31-AA-7.50 8.60 9.02-2.06 25.45 8.29-16 2 1 16-2 15 162 210 17,893.88 12,130.47 47.5%17,828.18 205 13,642.38 7,302.38 1,335.32 440%6,340 13.3%7 2023/1/16-2023/2/15(%)()(%)()153 72.86 13,642.38 76.24()12 5.71 6,340.00 35.43()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()141 67.14 7,302.38 40.81()1 0.48 50.00 0.28()51 24.29 4,135.80 23.11 Wind 22 23 Wind Wind 1Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 1Y 3Y 5Y 7YAAA 53.62 58.00 70.86 63.65-11.56-8.01-7.66-2.87AA+63.75 89.24 105.53 106.68-18.56-16.02-12.66-6.87AA 91.75 129.24 147.53 148.68-21.56-9.02-5.66 0.13AA-333.75 372.24 390.53 391.68-18.56-5.02-1.66 4.13AAA 53.20 57.00 68.23 63.87-7.69-6.06-8.02-7.76AA+62.98 88.84 104.56 103.85-17.69-8.06-10.02-7.76AA 88.98 133.84 150.56 149.85-27.69-3.06-11.02-8.76AA-331.98 376.84 392.56-24.69-0.06-9.02-AAA 54.73 56.08 65.39 69.17-10.62-11.76-12.20-12.36AA+66.33 88.02 92.39 109.01-18.64-20.75-15.20-11.36AA 82.33 140.52 152.89 170.01-44.64-14.75-10.20-4.36AA-337.33 429.52 445.89 463.01-13.64 0.25 2.80 7.64AAA 53.20 57.00 68.23-11.84-6.06-8.02-AA+82.78 112.57 130.42-17.27-7.16-9.44-AA 235.42 220.34 244.16-28.84-7.76-19.05-AA-531.66 606.02 632.95-7.28 26.66 14.55-0501001502002021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/02 3 AA+5 AA+7 AA+0204060802020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/01 3 AA-AA+3 AA+-AAA 17()15 7.14 1,450.00 8.10()19 9.05 1,147.60 6.41()17 8.10 1,538.20 8.60()1 0.48 40.00 0.22()1 0.48 40.00 0.22()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()0 0.00 0.00 0.00 劵()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()4 1.90 25.70 0.14()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()4 1.90 25.70 0.14()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()0 0.00 0.00 0.00 劵()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()0 0.00 0.00 0.00()0 0.00 0.00 0.00 210 100.00 17,893.88 100.00 Wind 858 6,879.48 28,831.17 23,240.88 5,590.29-616.51 17%3,279.53 47.67%933.00 13.56%758.26 11.02%620.65 9.02%18.72%3 2023 1 16-2 15 7,302.38 14.16 15.96 3.08%4.75 5.14 24.58-5BP-15BP 2 15 24 25 Wind Wind 13.6%0.4%11.0%12.0%47.7%4.8%9.0%1.6%27,368.4728,831.1727,984.9823,240.88-5,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00012.16-1.15 1.16-2.15 18 2022 26,301.83 8,504.43 32%1%2022&42.4%32%132,405.28 99991.64 10.4%9.4%2023 29,579 312,433.11 1,954.7 33.82%11.87%685.8 2023 26 27 Wind Wind 28 29 Wind Wind 30 2022 31 2023 2 15 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000 010203040506070802023/1/20 2023/2/3 2023/2/15=30bp 25bp,30bp)20bp,25bp)15bp,20bp)10bp,15bp)5bp,10bp)10.829.289.668.509.009.5010.0010.5011.002023-01-20 2023-02-03 2023-02-15 16.4915.8015.5915.0015.2015.4015.6015.8016.0016.2016.4016.602023-01-20 2023-02-03 2023-02-15 19 Wind Wind 9.4%2.7%10.4%1.1%&42.4%32.0%0.3%1.6%0.1%19.8%33.8%11.9%9.2%7.7%5.4%4.5%2.8%2.5%2.5%20 1.3 2.4 3.4 4 2.5 5 CPI.5 6 2 PMI.6 7 2 PMI.6 8-M2 10Y.9 9.9 10 CPI.10 11 PPI.10 12 CPI.10 13 CPI.10 14 PPI.10 15.13 16.14 17.14 18.14 19.14 20-.14 21-.14 22.16 23.16 24.17 25.17 26.18 27.18 28.18 29.18 30 2022.18 31 2023 2 15.18 21 1 1 PMI.6 2 1 PMI PMI.7 3.8 4.9 5.15 6.15 7 2023/1/16-2023/2/15.16 22 10 2011 6 FICC&table_avow table_contact 3088 20 0755-83479312 suyiyun_ 0755-83471683 chengxi_ 99 31 021-20252612 021-60387901 luyunru_ 8 1 嫚 010-80927722 tangmanling_ 010-80927755 chuying_