深度报告-20230524-华创证券-汇川技术-300124.SZ-系列深度研究报告(二)_PLC+伺服打造智造核心_助力产业升级_24页_2mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 05 24 300124 PLC+90 60.56 PLC PLC 2022 PLC 11.9%21.5%PLC PLC 2022 PLC 170 PLC PLC 41%PLC PLC PLC Easy 100%CODESYS PLC AM600 2022 223 2022 21.5%3C 2023-2025 295 385 491 2023/2024 304/396 53.2 69.2 88.8 2023/2024 54.5/70.2 EPS 2.00 2.60 3.34 2023 45 PE 90 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()23,008 29,543 38,486 49,113(%)28.2%28.4%30.3%27.6%()4,319 5,323 6,924 8,883(%)20.9%23.2%30.1%28.3%()1.62 2.00 2.60 3.34()37 30 23 18()8.1 6.4 5.0 3.9 2023 5 23 021-20572562 S0360523020001 S0360522080001()266,114.67()231,297.67()1,611.59()1,400.74(%)46.93()7.84 12/77.00/55.90(12)300124 2023-04-04-11%3%17%31%22/05 22/08 22/10 22/12 23/03 23/052022-05-242023-05-23 300 300124 2009 1210 PLC PLC PLC PLC PLC PLC Easy 100%PLC+1 2 3 4 5 2023-2025 295 385 491 53.2 69.2 88.8 EPS 2.00 2.60 3.34 2023 45 PE 90 300124 2009 1210 3 PLC.5“”.5 PLC 170.6 PLC.7.10.10.13.15.15 PLC.16.16.18.20 300124 2009 1210 4 1 PLC.5 2 PLC.6 3 PLC.6 4 2022 PLC.7 5 2022 PLC.7 6 2022 PLC.7 7 2022 PLC.7 8.8 9.8 10“Easy”100%.9 11 CODESYS.9 12 CODESYS PLC.9 13 PLC&HMI CAGR 76%.10 14 PLC.10 15.10 16.11 17 CR10%.11 18 2022.11 19.12 20 2022.12 21 2022.13 22.13 23.14 24 2022 49.9.15 25.15 26.15 27.16 28.17 29 Ether CAT.17 30.17 31.18 32.19 33 2023/5/23.19 300124 2009 1210 5 PLC PLC 1 PLC PLC PLC PLC 300124 2009 1210 6 2 PLC PLC 170 PLC PLC PLC PLC 2022 7.2%170 PLC 84.1 5.61%85.8 8.76%PLC 2019 119 2022 170 CAGR 12.6%3 PLC MIR PLC/2022 PLC 7.4%7.4%5.6%5.4%4.0%PLC 2022 PLC 51%12%6%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 300124 2009 1210 7 4 2022 PLC 5 2022 PLC MIR MIR PLC 2022 26%PLC PLC PLC 88%6 2022 PLC 7 2022 PLC MIR MIR PLC PLC PLC PLC PLC PLC H1U H3U H5U Easy PLC AM400 AM600 AC700 AC800,0.9%,1.0%,1.1%,1.3%,1.3%,1.4%,1.5%,1.9%,2.0%,2.3%,2.6%,2.9%,3.0%,3.0%,4.0%,5.4%,5.6%,7.4%,7.4%,44.4%,41%,10%,6%,5%,6%,12%,4%,3%,1%,11%,17.9%,13.4%,9.8%,7.3%,6.5%,5.5%,4.0%,3.3%,3.3%,2.9%,2.5%,2.4%,2.1%,1.9%,1.8%,1.5%,1.5%,1.4%,0.9%,0.8%,52%,14%,9%,6%,7%,4%,1%,6%300124 2009 1210 8 8 9 AC700 UPS UPS AC800 PLC AM600 IO AM400 IL,LD,FBD,SFC,CFC,ST PLC Easy 100%H5U Ether CAT Ether CAT H3U/S CAN CAN 64K 48K MODBUS TCP/IP H1U/S 3 100K PLC Easy Easy 80%CPU 100%300124 2009 1210 9 10 Easy 100%PLC CODESYS PLC 3S infoteam Phoenix Contact Software CODESYS 600 CODESYS ABB Soft PLC PLC CODESYS AM600 PLC 11 CODESYS 12 CODESYS PLC CODESYS PLC 300124 2009 1210 10 PLC 2020-2022 PLC 12%PLC&HMI 2020-2022 4.23/7.03/13.13 CAGR 76%2019-2021 45.1%/52.3%/54.3%13 PLC&HMI CAGR 76%14 PLC wind 15 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.002019 2020 2021 2022PLC&HMI YOY 47.7%45.1%52.3%54.3%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 300124 2009 1210 11 2017-2022 141 223 CAGR 9.6%2021 2022 223 4.6%16 MIR 72%2022 8.0%/7.7%/7.5%10.5%2.3%1.3%14.1%2022 3.4%2.6%2.7%21.5%17 CR10%18 2022 MIR MIR-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()68.3%65.5%65.5%67.3%70.0%72.0%62.0%64.0%66.0%68.0%70.0%72.0%74.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022,7.7%,21.5%,8.0%,7.5%,6.1%,10.5%,1.7%,3.4%,2.6%,2.7%,2.3%,1.5%,1.3%,1.0%,1.5%,0.4%,1.4%,1.0%,1.6%,16.3%300124 2009 1210 12 19 MIR 16.2%15.9%13%11%7.7%7.6%6.1%Top-con HJT IBC 20 2022 MIR 2022 20%23.2%9.2%300124 2009 1210 13 21 2022 MIR/22 3C 23.2%20.0%9.2%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%300124 2009 1210 14 23 SV680 3.5KHz 8Mpps 26bit 7000rpm SV670 0.05kW7.5KW Modbus CANopen CANlink EtherCAT SV660 23bit 0.05kW-7.5 kW EtherCAT Modbus CANopen CANLink Profinet SV630 EtherCAT Modbus CANopen CANLink IS650 SV660ND EtherCAT SV630ND EtherCAT IS810 OEM SV680L/Modbus EtherCAT SV520 3C SV510 3C AP AI AS 45%2020-2022 18.4/37.7/49.9 112%/105%/32%2020-2022 CAGR 65%2022 21.5%2019-2021 46.4%/48.7%/45.0%300124 2009 1210 15 24 2022 49.9 25 wind/PLC/HMI 3C 26/18.4337.6949.890%20%40%60%80%100%120%01020304050602019 2020 2021 2022 YOY()43.6%46.4%48.7%45.0%41.0%42.0%43.0%44.0%45.0%46.0%47.0%48.0%49.0%50.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 300124 2009 1210 16/PLC PLC PLC PLC+SCARA 27/PLC 300124 2009 1210 17 28 29 Ether CAT 30 PLC 300124 2009 1210 18 31/PLC/HMI/CNC+/+TVC+TVO 1 2 3 4 5 2023-2025 5.4%5.3%5.3%4.8%4.8%4.8%9.6%9.5%9.5%1 2023 2023-2025 30.4%25.2%24.8%2023-2025 45%2 2023-2025-10%15%10%2023-2025 26.5%26.8%27.5%3&2023-2025 55.8%42.9%33.9%2023-2025 300124 2009 1210 19 22%23%24%4 SCARA 2023-2025 70%70%70%2023-2025 46%47%48%32 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,146,453 1,495,284 1,871,449 2,335,146 YoY 27.64%30.43%25.16%24.78%45.64%45.00%45.00%45.00%516,194 464,297 533,942 587,336 YoY 3.92%-10.05%15.00%10.00%26.95%26.50%26.80%27.50%&555,155 864,857 1,236,181 1,654,810 YoY 57.80%55.79%42.93%33.86%18.97%22.00%23.00%24.00%56,086 95,387 162,158 275,668 YoY 54.96%70.07%70.00%70.00%49.20%46.00%47.00%48.00%26,943 345.14 448.68 583.28 YoY 135.66%28.10%30.00%30.00%38.02%40.00%40.00%40.00%2,300,831 2,954,339 3,848,597 4,911,288 YoY 28.23%28.40%30.27%27.61%35.01%35.33%35.43%35.94%Wind 2023-2025 295 385 491 53.2 69.2 88.8 EPS 2.00 2.60 3.34 2023 45 PE 90 33 2023/5/23 PE 2023E PE 2024E 002747.SZ 220 25.26 73 45 688320.SH 59 38.74 32 22 002249.SZ 127 5.35 20 16 688777.SH 549 101.36 51 39 300124 2009 1210 20/44 31 300124.SZ 1,612 60.56 30 23 Wind wind 1)2)3)300124 2009 1210 21 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 7,438 8,157 12,457 17,950 23,008 29,543 38,486 49,113 1,850 2,363 3,079 3,929 14,953 19,105 24,849 31,461 6,415 7,681 10,006 12,769 124 148 204 263 658 764 994 1,258 1,258 1,595 2,040 2,603 5,482 6,915 8,937 11,437 1,093 1,418 1,847 2,357 57 43 70 91 2,229 2,836 3,656 4,666 4,013 7,320 9,020 11,268 125 17 16 15 25,913 33,243 44,563 58,702-218-100-110-120 348 348 348 348-132-150-150-150 2,136 2,300 2,500 2,700 368 350 400 450 2,944 3,113 3,363 3,585 591 250 300 330 1,698 1,518 1,518 1,518 636 770 900 1,000 712 760 824 902 4,470 5,545 7,214 9,257 5,461 5,556 5,720 5,881 14 15 17 19 13,299 13,595 14,273 14,934 7 10 12 14 39,212 46,838 58,836 73,636 4,477 5,550 7,219 9,262 2,074 2,174 2,274 2,374 153 222 288 370 4,568 4,674 6,259 8,258 4,324 5,328 6,931 8,892 4,762 6,114 7,918 9,926 5 5 7 9 0 0 0 0 4,319 5,323 6,924 8,883 987 1,268 1,651 2,107 NOPLAT 4,445 5,344 6,945 8,906 587 587 587 587 EPS()1.62 2.00 2.60 3.34 1,029 600 500 400 2,052 2,658 3,441 4,363 16,059 18,075 22,630 28,015 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,796 2,138 2,713 3,304 0 0 0 0 28.2%28.4%30.3%27.6%1,245 1,245 1,244 1,244 EBIT 22.7%21.0%30.0%28.2%3,041 3,383 3,957 4,548 20.9%23.2%30.1%28.3%19,100 21,458 26,587 32,563 19,816 25,138 32,062 40,945 35.0%35.3%35.4%35.9%296 242 187 128 18.8%18.0%18.0%18.1%20,112 25,380 32,249 41,073 ROE 21.8%21.2%21.6%21.7%39,212 46,838 58,836 73,636 ROIC 27.8%26.3%26.0%25.4%48.7%45.8%45.2%44.2%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 30.5%24.3%20.9%17.8%3,201 1,377 4,552 5,785 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 4,911 5,779 7,418 9,426 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7-1,268-1,432-2,023-2,500-3,526-1,736-3,120-3,728 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 3,174 1,458 3,388 4,008 85 86 83 83-90-2,692-1,111-1,421 100 102 102 102-2,741-1,233-1,491-1,628 117 117 115 117-2,395-472-786-818()-677-164-200-200 1.62 2.00 2.60 3.34 331-597-505-610 1.20 0.52 1.71 2.17 2,449 575 1,239 1,336 7.45 9.45 12.05 15.39 3,053 13 575 590-909-160-170-180 P/E 37 30 23 18 718 0 0 0 P/B 8 6 5 4-413 722 834 926 EV/EBITDA 33 28 22 17 300124 2009 1210 22 CFA 5 7 2023 2019 2019 2022 Choice 祎 2023 2023 2023 300124 2009 1210 23 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 300124 2009 1210 24(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522