深度报告-20230508-华创证券-焦点科技-002315.SZ-深度研究报告_跨境B2B电商SaaS平台_AI打开成长空间_28页_1mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 05 08 002315 B2B SaaS AI 60.0 41.27 B2B SaaS B2B Made-in-C C A Made-in-C SaaS 22 12.38 84.59%27 4300 6800 16 600 2000 2021 2.15 2022 2.49 22 AI ARPU AI OpenAI ChatGPT GPT ARPU 2023-2025 17.80 21.42 25.78 20.7%20.4%20.3%3.73 4.69 5.94 24.3%25.7%26.7%EPS 1.20 1.51 1.91 SaaS 2023 50 xPE 60.0 AI ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()1,475 1,780 2,142 2,578(%)0.0%20.7%20.4%20.3%()300 373 469 594(%)22.6%24.3%25.7%26.7%()0.96 1.20 1.51 1.91()43 34 27 22()5.7 5.5 5.2 4.9 2023 5 5 S0360523040001 010-66500993 S0360517040002()31,129.72()19,469.68()128.47()80.35(%)41.68()6.49 12/41.27/12.26(12)-23%41%106%170%22/05 22/07 22/09 22/12 23/02 23/052022-05-062023-05-05 300 002315 2009 1210 SaaS AI AI ARPU 1 B2B SaaS Made-in-C SaaS 2 ARPU 3 AI(Made-in-C)ARPU SaaS AI ARPU 2023-2025 17.80 21.42 25.78 20.7%20.4%20.3%3.73 4.69 5.94 24.3%25.7%26.7%EPS 1.20 1.51 1.91 SaaS 2023 50 xPE 60.0 002315 2009 1210 3 B2B SaaS.6 B2B.6 1.6 2.8 SaaS.8 B2B.11 B2B.11.12 AI.15.15.19 AI ARPU.20.23.24 002315 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.8 5.8 6.8 7.9 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.10 12.10 13 SaaS+/.10 14 SaaS/.10 15.11 16.11 17.11 18.12 19.12 20 B2B.12 21 B2B.12 22.13 23.15 24.16 25.18 26.18 27.18 28.18 29.19 30 2018 B2B.19 31.19 32().20 33.20 002315 2009 1210 5 34.20 35 AI.21 36.21 37 AI.21 38 8-10K.22 39.23 40.24 002315 2009 1210 6 B2B SaaS B2B B2B 1996 B2B Made-in-C C A Made-in-C 1 1 MIC B2B 2 002315 2009 1210 7 1)MIC Mde-in-C MIC 1998 SaaS 22 12.38 84.59%2)B2B B2B 2013 inQbrands Inc.D Amazon ebay 22 0.85 5.78%3),22 1.14 7.80%3(Made-in-C)(Made-in-C)(Made-in-C)(TopRank)(Spotlight Exhibits)(Banner Pro)(Made-in-C)-002315 2009 1210 8 2 2023 3 31 47.30%inQbrands INC Crov Doba 4 Wind SaaS 2022 14.63 2021 B2B B2B 70%2022 12.38 13.44%2019-2022 CAGR 24%2022 84.59%9.56 pct 5 6 8.759.7811.3014.54 14.636.508.2410.9112.38-40%-20%0%20%40%051015202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 70%76%77%86%19%15%11%8%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022B2B 002315 2009 1210 9 2022 3.00 22.60%2022 80.23%4.93pct 7 8 B2B B2B 2022 81.69%2022 B2B 22 80.60%4.84 pct 2022 55.69%33.70 pct 9 10 22 50%2020 2022 4 22 38.04%2018 6.32pct 0.56 1.51 1.73 2.45 3.00-23%168%15%41%23%-50%0%50%100%150%200%00.511.522.533.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022()5.096.097.448.5010.9511.7442%70%76%75%75%80%0%20%40%60%80%100%024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 74%81%83%88%23%17%14%9%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022B2B 80.20%80.04%81.48%81.69%93.20%88.63%94.57%95.02%16.86%8.89%21.64%55.69%19.57%23.99%8.27%6.28%73.84%75.85%75.76%80.60%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022B2B 002315 2009 1210 10 11 12 SaaS SaaS 2022+/63.08%/1.61 SaaS 13 SaaS+/14 SaaS/Wind Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02004006008001000120014002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 36%38%40%42%44%46%48%012345672018 2019 2020 2021 2022 63.08%43.38%52.73%2.22%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%(+)/1.611.701.432.600.000.501.001.502.002.503.00 2022/002315 2009 1210 11 B2B B2B B2B B2C)SAAS B2B B2C B2C B2B 2022 21 2022 15.7 10.56%37.32%1.00pct 15 16 B2B B2B 2022 12.3 11.8%77.25%2022 B2B 11.9 8.6%75.6%17/B2B B2C C2C 36 9.0 10.5 12.5 14.2 15.7 12%17%19%14%11%0%5%10%15%20%051015202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 30%33%39%36%37%2%13%17%-7%3%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 002315 2009 1210 12 18 19 20 B2B 21 B2B 2020 6 B2B 9710 9810 B2C B2B 2021 6 2022 11 24 165 31 7.18.09.711.012.313%13%21%13%12%0%5%10%15%20%25%024681012142018 2019 2020 2021 2022 78.90%76.50%77.60%77.46%77.25%0%20%40%60%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 7.58.59.710.911.99%13%14%13%8.55%0%5%10%15%20%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 B2B 83.2%80.5%77.3%77.0%75.6%0%20%40%60%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 B2B 002315 2009 1210 13 22 2020 6 12 2020 75 10 B2B 9710(B2B)9810()8 13 2020 92()12 B2B 2021 3 13 2035 6 22 2021 47 B2B 7 8,7 9(B2B)7 20 RCEP 2022 1 1 RCEP RCEP 6 4 1 13 B2B 2 18 5 26 11 24 33 33 12 15 002315 2009 1210 14 2023 1 30 4 25+002315 2009 1210 15 AI 1)29800/80000/31100/59800/23 1000 12 3000 25 7 10 20 30+1 20 30+1 200 10 200 10 100 6 3 3+1 Logo 3 4 1 3 7 20 7 20 Discover TopRank PC 1GB 10GB 002315 2009 1210 16 10GB 50GB 10 7 7 100/100/10/10/SNS 31100/59800/24 360 10 3 3D showroom MA 002315 2009 1210 17/5 10 2 8/85+4 1 29800/80000/2)P4P TopRank 8000/4000/002315 2009 1210 18 25 26 3)27 28 2021+Global Pay 2022 M 002315 2009 1210 19 B2B B2B 2022 B2B 29 30 2018 B2B 36 27 4300 6800 16 600 2000 31 2021 2.16 2022 2.49 28.4%1.4%17.6%9.2%6.5%6.1%0.7%30.1%002315 2009 1210 20 32()B2B 22 33 34 AI ARPU B2B 21575214902197821772225672292324400249072437419000200002100022000230002400025000260002021Q1 2021H1 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022H1 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q10%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002019 2020 2021 20220%20%40%02000004000002018Q1 2019Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 002315 2009 1210 21 AI+AI 2023 4 25 AI AI OpenAI ChatGPT3.5Turbo AI AI 35 AI 36 37 AI SEO Blog AI MIC AI AI B2B 10-12/002315 2009 1210 22 38 8-10K ARPU AI ARPU AI AI OpenAI ChatGPT GPT AI-002315 2009 1210 23 1 Made-in-C AI ARPU 2 3 D D D InQbrands 4 SaaS 2023-2025 80.8%81.1%81.2%5 AI 2023-2025 37%36.5%36.0%10.4%10.1%9.5%11.9%11.7%11.5%39:2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1474.86 1779.72 2142.49 2578.13 yoy 0.00%20.67%20.38%20.33%80.23%80.81%81.06%81.21%1237.755 1497.68 1797.22 2156.66 yoy 13.44%21%20%20%83.92%84.15%83.88%83.65%81.85%82%82.30%82.50%B2B 84.58 109.95 137.44 171.80 yoy-52.55%30%25%25%5.78%6.18%6.41%6.66%41.38%45%46%47%114.08 142.60 175.40 213.99 yoy-27.11%25%23%22%7.80%8.01%8.19%8.30%95.02%95.10%95.10%95.10%+26.80 29.48 32.43 35.67 002315 2009 1210 24 yoy-5.22%10%10%10%1.82%1.66%1.51%1.38%84.52%85.00%85.00%85.00%Wind 2023-2025 17.80 21.42 25.78 20.7%20.4%20.3%3.73 4.69 5.94 24.3%25.7%26.7%EPS 1.20 1.51 1.91 SaaS 2023 50 xPE 60.0 40 Ticker P/E P/S 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 002410.SZ 68.4x 51.3x 39.1x 30.2x 10.1x 7.9x 6.3x 5.0 x 300624.SZ 466.5x 181.8x 122.3x 88.2x 16.3x 12.6x 10.1x 8.4x 688111.SH 172.1x 121.2x 89.5x 67.5x 49.5x 37.0 x 27.7x 20.9x 603171.SH 120.4x 55.0 x 42.1x 33.2x 10.2x 8.4x 6.9x 5.7x 206.8x 102.3x 73.3x 54.7x 21.5x 16.5x 12.8x 10.0 x 146.3x 88.1x 65.8x 50.3x 13.3x 10.5x 8.5x 7.0 x 146.3x 88.1x 65.8x 50.3x 13.3x 10.5x 8.5x 7.0 x 002315.SZ 42.8x 33.6x 27.0 x 21.6x 8.7x 7.2x 6.0 x 5.0 x Wind Wind 2023 5 5 B2B AI AI 002315 2009 1210 25 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,950 2,076 2,419 2,830 1,475 1,780 2,142 2,578 2 2 2 3 289 339 403 480 28 51 53 62 11 11 14 18 9 12 13 15 557 653 776 921 13 18 25 26 157 184 215 243 0 0 0 0 178 210 249 294 274 456 466 492-31-11-13-15 2,276 2,615 2,978 3,428-8-8-8-8 22 22 22 22-2-2-2-2 60 60 60 60 6 6 6 6 463 435 410 386 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 18 18 18 18 57 77 95 110 331 411 516 653 680 681 682 681-1-1-1-1 1,282 1,275 1,269 1,259 1 1 1 1 3,558 3,890 4,247 4,687 329 409 514 651 0 0 0 0 29 36 45 57 0 0 0 0 300 373 469 594 127 188 209 232 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 373 469 594 803 969 1,167 1,404 NOPLAT 272 363 457 581 52 52 52 52 EPS()0.96 1.20 1.51 1.91 20 20 20 20 112 132 159 186 1,114 1,361 1,607 1,894 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%20.7%20.4%20.3%177 177 177 177 EBIT 14.5%33.3%26.0%27.0%177 177 177 177 22.6%24.3%25.7%26.7%1,291 1,538 1,784 2,071 2,249 2,342 2,464 2,621 80.2%80.8%81.1%81.2%18 10-1-5 20.5%21.1%22.1%23.2%2,267 2,352 2,463 2,616 ROE 13.4%15.9%19.0%22.7%3,558 3,890 4,247 4,687 ROIC 19.6%24.4%29.0%34.3%36.3%39.5%42.0%44.2%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 8.7%8.4%8.0%7.5%485 408 728 886 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 332 401 495 618 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 9-5-7-2 11-23-2-9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 4 61 22 22 8 8 9 8 129-25 220 256 172 167 178 165 406-39-41-32 22 16 19 19-16-32-31-30()24 0 0 0 0.96 1.20 1.51 1.91 398-7-10-2 1.56 1.31 2.34 2.85-229-243-344-443 7.22 7.52 7.92 8.42 5 0 0 0-249-350-439-556 P/E 43 34 27 22 39 39 39 39 P/B 6 6 5 5-24 68 56 74 EV/EBITDA 36 30 24 19 002315 2009 1210 26 2020 2022 2023 2022 5 2020 2021 2022 2022 002315 2009 1210 27 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 002315 2009 1210 28(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
