深度报告-20230423-华创证券-朗姿股份-002612.SZ-深度研究报告_契合新时代医美需求_具备远见经营策略_27页_2mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 04 23 002612 31 26.08+2022 39.58%22.63%36.25%2022+1.19%38.78 57.51%0.89%5-10%2021 2021 2 2022 6 65%10%2022 9 75%30+2023-2025 45.88/54.08/60.67 1.80/2.76/3.39+2023 25XPE 40 2023 5.5XPS 95 135 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()3,878 4,588 5,408 6,067(%)5.8%18.3%17.9%12.2%()16 180 276 339(%)-91.4%1,017.8%53.5%23.0%()0.04 0.41 0.62 0.77()718 64 42 34()4.0 3.8 3.5 3.1 2023 4 21 010-66500993 S0360519090004 010-66500993 S0360517040002()44,244.54()27,666.15()120.12()75.11(%)49.12()6.51 12/33.30/18.86(12)-16%8%31%55%22/04 22/06 22/09 22/11 23/02 23/042022-04-212023-04-21 300 002612 2009 1210+”&2020 2021 2023-2025 45.88/54.08/60.67 1.80/2.76/3.39+2023 25XPE 40 2023 5.5XPS 95 135 002612 2009 1210 3“”.6.6.8 1.9 2.10 3.11.13.13.14“+”.14.15“+”.18.19.20.22.23 002612 2009 1210 4 1/%.6 2/%.6 3/%.6 4.7 5 2022.7 6/.8 7 2022/.8 8/%.8 9 LNCY.9 10 m.tsubomi.9 11.9 12“”.10 13-/.10 14-/.10 15 Ettoi.10 16 Agabang.10 17.11 18 2018-2022/.11 19.12 20.12 21 2018-2022/.12 22.13 23.14 24“”+“”.15 25/%.16 26.16 27/%.16 28/%.17 29.17 30/%.17 31.17 32/%.18 33.18 002612 2009 1210 5 34.18 35.19 36.19 37/%.19 38/.19 39/%.20 40/%.20 41.21 42.21 43.21 44.22 45.22 46.22 002612 2009 1210 6 2006 2011 2022 39.58%22.63%36.25%2017 2022 23.53 38.78 55%2022 57.51%2022 0.89%5-10%1/%wind 2/%3/%wind wind 54.58%EMBA 2014 2016 2021 2021 2022 002612 2009 1210 7 2.13%4+2021.1.18,2022 27.56 7.64 2021 2 2022 6 65%10%2022 9 75%5 2022 2021.1 40,100 2021.3 25,100 2021.9 50,100 2021.10 50,100 2021.11 60,100 2022.1 50,100 275,600 2019-2022 2022 42.41%16.45 2022 2602 002612 2009 1210 8 6/7 2022/wind wind 2022 2 30 14 24 2016 2016 71.44%2022 39.58%2016 6.25%2022 36.25%8/%wind 002612 2009 1210 9 1 2000 LANCY FROM 25 LNCY,2022 9 LNCY 10 m.tsubomi 11 25-45 25-45 25-45 LANCY FROM 25/LNCY PINK 20-45 25-38 30-45 2016-2019 2021 16.92 2020 2022-12.51%-9.25%2022 15.35 32.09%97%+2019-2022 12.62%33.14%2022 577 SHOPPINGMALL 35 002612 2009 1210 10 12 13-/14-/wind wind 2 2014 40 0-4 10 Agabang ETTOI Putto Designskin Dear Baby,Ettoi 15 Ettoi 16 Agabang 002612 2009 1210 11 17 Agabang 0-4 1979 ETTOI 0-7 Putto 0-3 3-6 Designskin 0-4 2ya2yaO 0-6 Next Mom Agabang Gallery 8 2022 8.78 5.99 2.78 18 2018-2022/wind 3 2016 DMG 2017 3 2018 2021 2 2022 6 65%10%2022 9 75%“”“”“”30 4 23 2 1 002612 2009 1210 12 19 20 2016 0.86 2022 14.06 2020 2020 14.36%21 2018-2022/002612 2009 1210 13 2012 2020 2016 22 wind frost&sullivan 2017 1258 2021 1417 cagr=3.0%2021-2030 10.9%3602 2021-2030 1/3 2030 6382 2019-2030 cagr 14.5%cagr 2019 1439 2021 51.7%frost&sullivan 2000 2025 2279 2021-2025 cagr 31.9%12.4%2025 4108 2021-2025 cagr=17.2%1 2 3 4 002612 2009 1210 14 2021 23 1 2 1 2 3+2021 51.7%+原料商 产品/器械商 医美机构 消费者代理商/经销商医美垂直平台传统广告渠道本地生活服务平台新媒体平台 002612 2009 1210 15+24“”+2022 30 6 24 4 2 1 2021 2023 2018“”5A 2021 CCTV-2 002612 2009 1210 16 25/%26 2011 23 15 3 1 2 2 2020-21.55%9.90 2021+10.18%10.91 2022 6.20-7.85%2022 14.71%2.94 0.84 28.66%2018 2019 50%15-20%27/%wind 4 1 3 31 21/22 20/21 2022/23 0.9-30%-10%10%30%50%70%04812162018 2019 2020 2021 2022医思健康美学医疗业务 晶肤 美丽田园秀可儿 yoy-医思健康 yoy-晶肤 002612 2009 1210 17 28/%29 1991 2 1 6 11 18 VIP 32 VIP 30“5A”“”“”2019 23.5%30/%31 2015 2022“”“”“”8955 20 11 2022 1.95 2021 17.05%7.57%002612 2009 1210 18 32/%33+2021+2022“”34 002612 2009 1210 19 35 36 2020-2022 5.33 9.32 11.10 65.54%72.42%78.94%2022 4 2016 4 2022 23 37/%38/wind 002612 2009 1210 20 2020 2021 2019-2021 65%10-15%39/%40/%wind 2020 2022-117.13%-377.69%wind 2023 2“”3000 16 002612 2009 1210 21 41 42 43 2021 5 20,2023 3 22 002612 2009 1210 22 44 45 2023-2025 45.88/54.08/60.67 1.80/2.76/3.39 46 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 38.78 45.88 54.08 60.67 yoy 1.19%18.29%17.89%12.17%14.06 17.30 21.42 25.31 yoy 9.25%23.06%23.82%18.15%49.54%50.84%52.06%52.17%7.09 8.79 11.14 13.18 7.82 9.30 11.63 13.72 yoy-11.30%18.86%25.00%18.00%20.17%20.27%21.49%22.61%2.94 3.90 4.88 5.85 yoy-14.71%32.73%25.00%20.00%7.58%8.50%9.01%9.64%1.34 1.80 2.16 2.48 yoy-16.48%33.99%20.00%15.00%3.46%3.92%3.99%4.09%1.95 2.30 2.76 3.26 yoy-17.05%17.80%20.00%18.00%002612 2009 1210 23 5.03%5.01%5.10%5.37%15.35 18.42 21.74 23.91 yoy-9.25%20%18.00%10.00%39.58%40.15%40.19%39.41%62.94%63.00%61.00%61.00%9.66 11.60 13.26 14.58 8.78 9.66 10.43 10.95 yoy 7.55%10%8.00%5.00%22.63%21.05%19.28%18.05%60.52%61.00%58.00%55.00%5.31 5.89 6.05 6.02 PS A+2023 25XPE 40 2023 5.5XPS 95 2023 135 31/002612 2009 1210 24 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 431 316 617 1,085 3,878 4,588 5,408 6,067 0 0 1 0 1,648 1,959 2,363 2,688 191 402 419 433 17 18 27 30 31 53 58 65 1,645 1,835 2,055 2,245 1,211 1,418 1,667 1,895 331 321 379 425 0 0 0 0 116 151 178 200 168 386 409 405 91 95 81 76 2,032 2,575 3,171 3,883-7-7-7-7 319 319 319 319-31-31-31-31 902 902 902 902 0 0 0 0 672 680 729 746 51 51 51 51 17 39 23 30 4 4 4 4 389 361 339 317 50 227 345 422 2,779 2,791 2,802 2,822 5 5 4 5 5,078 5,092 5,114 5,136 12 12 12 12 7,110 7,667 8,285 9,019 43 220 337 415 849 1,040 1,230 1,420 8 33 50 63 0 6 9 13 35 187 287 352 219 261 316 362 19 7 11 13 0 0 0 0 16 180 276 339 633 749 883 990 NOPLAT 108 267 355 417 318 318 318 318 EPS()0.04 0.41 0.62 0.77 80 80 80 80 189 336 460 549 2,288 2,790 3,296 3,732 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 0 0 0 0 422 422 422 422 5.8%18.3%17.9%12.2%782 726 726 726 EBIT-47.1%136.1%32.9%17.5%1,204 1,148 1,148 1,148-91.4%1,017.8%53.5%23.0%3,492 3,938 4,444 4,880 2,878 3,058 3,334 3,673 57.5%57.3%56.3%55.7%740 671 507 466 0.9%4.1%5.3%5.8%3,618 3,729 3,841 4,139 ROE 0.6%5.9%8.3%9.2%7,110 7,667 8,285 9,019 ROIC 6.9%15.2%17.4%16.9%49.1%51.4%53.6%54.1%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 59.0%60.8%64.0%64.0%236 194 462 511 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 239 431 517 583 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5-178-208-249-228 104-202 9 11 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7-222 48 58 50 21 23 27 25 293 124 127 95 48 44 44 45-12-391-314-202 245 242 235 239-207-152-161-157()13 0 0 0 0.04 0.41 0.62 0.77 182-239-153-45 0.53 0.44 1.04 1.15-299 82 153 159 6.50 6.91 7.54 8.30 195 190 190 190-79-92-76-71 P/E 718 64 42 34 76 76 76 76 P/B 4 4 4 3-491-92-37-36 EV/EBITDA 55 29 24 21 002612 2009 1210 25 2016 2017 2017 2017 2020 2021 2021 2022 002612 2009 1210 26 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 002612 2009 1210 27(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
