深度报告-20230530-华创证券-轻工制造行业深度研究报告_PVC地板_出口正当时_内销尤可期_25页_2mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 05 30 PVC PVC 2020 697 PVC 180 25.8%2016+10.1pct PVC PVC SPC/WPC 1 LVT 2 WPC 2012 3 SPC 2015 LVT WPC 4 SPC/WPC 2017 59.8%2020 80.6%PVC PVC 1:2019 PVC 15.1 33.3%70%2 2019 5%/3%25%1 2019 61.2 2015-2019 CAGR=21.3%57.6%2 2018 7.7 2011-2018 CARG=15.5%28.5%3 2020 PVC 66.84 2015-2020 CAGR=20.6%22 50%SPC/WPC 2020-25 CAGR=13.2%1 LVT WPC SPC 2 SPC SPC SPC PVC 20-25 CAGR=24.7%3 WPC SPC WPC 20-25 CAGR=10.1%PVC 7.59%7.17%5.0%/3.3%/2.6%CR5=25%S0360521050002%()154 0.02()9,059.08 0.98()7,146.09 1.02%1M 6M 12M-1.1%-0.3%4.8%2.0%-3.1%7.3%AI 2023-05-16 2023-05-12 2022 2023 23 2023-05-05-12%-1%9%20%22/05 22/08 22/10 22/12 23/03 23/052022-05-292023-05-29 300 2009 1210 PVC PVC PVC WPC/SPC LVT 2009 1210 3.6 PVC.6 WPC/SPC.9 1.9 2 2020-25 CAGR 13.2%WPC/SPC.11.12.12.13.14.17 CR5=25%.17.18&.18.22 2009 1210 4 1.6 2 2020.6 3 2016-2020.6 4 PVC.7 5 PVC.7 6 PVC.8 7 PVC.9 8 PVC.9 9 2019.10 10 2019 PVC.10 11 2019 PVC.10 12 2019.11 13 PVC 2019.11 14 2016-2020 PVC.11 15 2016-2020 PVC.11 16 PVC 2025E.12 17 2015-2019 PVC.12 18 2007-2018.12 19 2011.13 20 2019.13 21 2014-2022.13 22 2018 PVC.13 23 2011-2018 PVC.14 24 2011 2018.14 25 PVC.14 26 2015 PVC.15 27 PVC 2022.15 28 2022 PVC.15 29 OEM/ODM/OBM.15 30 2010-2022.16 31.17 32 2019 PVC.17 33 PVC 2019.18 2009 1210 5 34.18 35 PVC.19 36.19 37 PVC.19 38 PVC.20 39 PVC.20 40 PVC.20 41 PVC.20 42 PVC.20 43 PVC/.20 44 PVC.21 45 PVC.21 46 PVC.21 47 PVC.22 48 PVC 2022.22 2009 1210 6 PVC PVC 2020 697 PVC 180 25.8%2016 15.7%10.1pct 1 PVC 2 2020 3 2016-2020 MarketWise MarketWise PVC 1 2 3 4 B1 5 20%PVC 26%25%5%11%3%4%6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PVC 2009 1210 7 4 PVC PVC PVC PVC 0.55mm 5 0.7mm 10 PVC PVC PVC B1 PVC PVC PVC B C PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC 5 PVC choice 2009 1210 8 SPC/WPC PVC LVT/WPC/SPC/MGO 1 LVT LVT PVC WPC SPC 2 WPC WPC 2012 3 SPC SPC 2015 PVC PVC SPC LVT WPC 4 MGO MGO LVT 6 PVC LVT 7080 WPC SPC WPC 2005 WPC 2012 LVT PVC SPC 2015 2018 LVT PVC MGO 90 LVT PVC 1 PVC know-how PVC 2009 1210 9 2 PVC 1 7 PVC PVC PVC PVC CE TUV Floor Score GREENGUARD PVC 1 PVC PVC PVC WPC/SPC 1 PVC PVC PVC PVC 8 PVC 30 PVC 70-80 PVC PVC 2009 1210 10 1 2019 PVC 15.1/2.1%/23.3%/11.7%/38.1%/3.2%/21.5%33.3%70%2 2019/PVC 2.8%/5.4%/26.5%/25.6%/3.0%/22.3%5%/3%25%9 2019 Tarkett Universal Registration Document 2020 10 2019 PVC 11 2019 PVC Tarkett Universal Registration Document 2020 Tarkett Universal Registration Document 2020 1063531924235112394311632984107621436726533165247943323235217757548325/PVC 2%23%12%38%/3%22%2.8%5.4%26.5%25.6%3.0%22.3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%/2009 1210 11 12 2019 13 PVC 2019 Tarkett Universal Registration Document 2020 Tarkett Universal Registration Document 2020 2 2020-25 CAGR 13.2%WPC/SPC 2020 PVC 180 2016-2020 CAGR=16.1%15.7%10.1pct 25.8%2017 SPC/WPC 2017 59.8%2020 80.6%14 2016-2020 PVC 15 2016-2020 PVC MarketWise MarketWise 2020-2025 CAGR=13.2%SPC/WPC 2020 SPC/WPC/LVT 7/5.5/5 1 LVT LVT WPC SPC 2 SPC 2020 SPC SPC PVC CAGR=24.7%3 WPC WPC WPC SPC WPC 2020 WPC CAGR=10.1%82%5%8%PVC 5%16%48%11%PVC 25%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0204060801001201401601802002016 2017 2018 2019 2020PVC YoY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020LVT SPC/WPC/MGO 2009 1210 12 16 PVC 2025E 2019 2020 2025 2020-2025CAGR SPC 5 33.30%7 40.00%40%21.1 60.30%193.6 24.69%WPC 5 33.30%5.5 31.40%10%8.9 25.40%117.8 10.10%LVT 5 33.30%5 28.60%0%5.0 14.30%23.0 0.00%15 100%17.5 100%17%35.0 100%334.4 13.20%MarketWise Tarkett 60 PVC 2012-2018 PVC 11.3%21.4%36.1%16.8%2015 28.3 2019 61.2 2015-2019 CAGR=21.3%17 2015-2019 PVC 18 2007-2018 Catalina Research Floor Covering Weekly PVC 80%PVC ENGINEERED FLOORS HOME DEPOT 2016-2020 PVC 20.6 48.2 59.9%74.9%2011-2019 PVC 19.0%23.1pct 42.1%28.3 34.4 41.2 51.8 61.2 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0102030405060702015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YoY10%21%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%PVC 2007 2012 2018 2009 1210 13 19 2011 20 2019 Statistics Canada US Census Bureau Statistics Canada US Census Bureau+PVC 2014-2021 43.7 76.7 CAGR 8.4%2010 371 2021 612 4.66%PVC 2018+57.6%21 2014-2022 22 2018 PVC Wind U.S.Department of Commerce,Catalina Research PVC PVC 2011 15.2%2018 28.5%PVC 2.8 7.7 2011-2018 CARG=15.5%19%20%50%1%10%42%16%35%1%6%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01002003004005006007008009002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:YoY 20.8%20.9%0.5%0.1%20.9%36.8%2009 1210 14 23 2011-2018 PVC 24 2011 2018 Eurostat Eurostat PVC PVC 80 PVC PVC 25 PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC DIY PVC 50%23 3 PVC 2015 2021 PVC 21.8 66.9 CAGR=20.6%22 50%22 PVC 2.8 3.4 3.8 4.6 6.5 7.0 7.9 7.7-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%01234567892011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YoY15%29%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%PVC 2011 2018 2009 1210 15 26 2015 PVC 27 PVC 2022 Wind 28 2022 PVC Wind OEM/ODM PVC OEM ODM OBM PVC OBM PVC OEM ODM“”OBM 29 OEM/ODM/OBM OEM ODM OBM 21.826.233.946.048.455.666.962.616.2-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01020304050607080 YoY 50%8%4%38%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0 YoY 2009 1210 16 1 90 1%2019 2019 14 1%1400 30 2010-2022 Wind 2 PVC PVC PVC PVC 3 PVC PVC PVC PVC 40455055606570024681012141618202010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:()2009 1210 17 31 Wind CR5=25%PVC CR5=25%2019 PVC 7.59%7.17%5.0%3.3%2.6%CR5=25%32 2019 PVC 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 8%7%5%3%3%74%2009 1210 18 33 PVC 2019 1995 PVC PVC PVC 80%7.59%1999 PVC PVC 80%7.17%1999 2020 3 23,PVC 3.27%2016 2020 9 30,PVC PVC LVT WPC SPC 20 2.55%2003 PVC PVC WPC SPC MGO LVT 4.97%PVC 2018 2.58%/4.52%/6.76%2021 1.59/-2.02/0.61pct 2020 34 Wind&2022 PVC PVC 2023 3 2023 1 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 1210 19 35 PVC 36 Wind Wind PVC 1 WPC+SPC 90%SPC 83%WPC+SPC 64%90%+70-80%42%2 2022 18.94/7.99/29.67/15.03 2.12/-0.36/3.79/1.31 11.2%/-4.5%/12.8%/6.6%3 2022 0.47/0.25/0.48 2.5%/3.1%/1.6%37 PVC SPC 78%42%18.94 2.12 22.00%11.20%2.50%LVT 8%WPC 13%19%93%7.99-0.36 3.20%-4.50%3.10%64%14%SPC 61%85%29.67 3.79 22.30%12.80%1.60%LVT 11%WPC 27%SPC 83%76%15.03 1.31-8.70%-17%Wind 2021 2022 4000600080001000012000140001600021/06 21/09 21/12 22/03 22/06 22/09 22/12 23/03():PVC():6.26.46.66.87.07.27.421/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04:2009 1210 20 38 PVC 39 PVC Wind Wind 40 PVC 41 PVC Wind Wind 42 PVC 43 PVC/Wind Wind 051015202530352018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.51 2 3 4 5 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 01000200030004000500060002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 01020304050607080902018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 21 44 PVC AB VCP LVT 2022 25 19 5 1 PE 2023 4 29 26 20 8 ABA SPC 2022 6 30 72 18 61 1 2 WPC SPC PVC LVT 2022 11 7 20 8 12 45 PVC 46 PVC Wind Wind PVC 2022 93.4/108.1/68.8 2021 2022 VERTEX 2022 11.0%/12.1%/6.8%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002018 2018 2020 2021 2022 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 22 47 PVC 48 PVC 2022 Wind Wind 4050607080901001101202019 2020 2021 2022-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2009 1210 23 2021 2022 2022 2009 1210 24 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 25(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%“”“”26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
