深度报告-20230210-平安证券-盛视科技-002990.SZ-智慧口岸行业龙头_2023年业绩或迎来强势反转_24页_3mb.pdf
2023 02 10(002990.SZ)2023 请 通 过 合 法 途径获 取本公 司研究 报告，如经由 未经许 可的渠 道获得 研究报 告，请 慎重 使用并 注意阅 读研究 报告尾 页的声 明内容。34.23/62.86%()258 A()65 B/H()88 A()22()8.17(%)27.2 S1060520050001 YIYONGJIAN S1060121070088 FUDANTING 1997 1 2016-2021 2.41 11.27 36.15%2018-2019 50%2020-2021 15%2 2020 46%-52%20%2021 15.91%2021 3 2021 11.47%1 2023 2024 2025 115.38 7 2 3 3 2022-2024 11.35 21.23 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()935 1,127 1,135 2,123 2,754 YOY(%)15.8 20.5 0.7 87.0 29.7()224 179 135 410 599 YOY(%)5.3-20.1-24.4 202.6 46.0(%)46.7 38.1 42.0 44.0 45.0(%)24.0 15.9 11.9 19.3 21.7 ROE(%)11.9 8.9 6.3 16.6 20.3 EPS(/)0.87 0.69 0.52 1.59 2.32 P/E()39.4 49.3 65.2 21.5 14.8 P/B()4.7 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.0 2/24 27.54 1.35 4.10 5.99 EPS 0.52 1.59 2.32 PE 65.2 21.5 14.8 2023 1 2022 2022 2 2022 3 4 5 6 3/24.6 1.1.6 1.2.7 1.3.8.9 2.1.9 2.2.10.12 3.1.12 3.2.15 3.3“”.19.20.21 4/24 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.7 5 2022.8 6.8 7.9 8 2016-2021.10 9 2019Q4-2022Q3.10 10 2017-2021.10 11 2016-2021.11 12 2016-2021.11 13 2016-2021.11 14 2016-2021.11 15 2016-2021.11 16 2021.11 17.12 18.12 19.13 20.13 21.13 22“”.14 23 2023 2 3.14 24.15 25 2020.15 26 2010-2021.15 27 2011-2021.15 28 2011-2021.16 29 2013-2021.16 30 2013-2021.16 31 2010-2022.16 32.17 33.18 34.18 35.18 36.19 5/24 37 2023 2023 2 1.19 38“”.20 39.20 40.20 6/24 1.1 AI+400 AI+1 7/24 2 3 AI AI/4 1.2 2022 1%62.86%5.65%4.87%8/24 2021 5 2022 1997 2000 2001 6 年龄 职位 履历 59 1997 46,2000 48 2001 41 2004 44 2007 1.3 1997-2009 1997 1999 9/24 2005 2006 2010-2020 2010 2013 2015 2016 2018 2017 2020 2021-2021 公司 AI AI 2022 7 2.1 2016-2021 2.41 11.27 36.15%2018 2019 51.84%59.17%2016 2020-2021 15%10/24 8 2016-2021 9 2019Q4-2022Q3 2017-2021 90%3.19 10.87 35.87%2019/58.19%/31.87%/8.94%2021 3980 3.53%10 2017-2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 318.93 481.03 799.28 880.62 1086.93 95.47%94.83%99.00%94.17%96.46%189.09 297.54 469.79 56.60%58.66%58.19%103.16 157.00 257.34 30.88%30.95%31.87%26.68 26.49 72.15 7.99%5.22%8.94%13.70 25.03 7.32 54.29 39.80 4.10%4.93%0.91%5.81%3.53%1.44 1.18 0.78 0.21 0.07 0.43%0.23%0.10%0.02%0.01%2.2 1 2020 46%46%-52%2021 38.11%2 2016-2020 0.47 2.24 36.77%2020 20%2021 1.79 15.91%2.413.345.078.079.3511.2738.72%51.84%59.17%15.82%20.50%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0246810122016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy2.961.542.841.973.011.783.462.703.322.613.281.631.47%15.74%21.87%37.35%10.63%46.11%-5.12%-39.63%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0.01.02.03.04.0 yoy 11/24 11 2016-2021 12 2016-2021 2021/6.59%/4.84%/11.47%1 21 0.7pct 2 2021 2167.46 3 2016 2627 2021 1.29 2021 2.65pct 4 2021 75%/11%/8%/5%2019-2021 333 678 751 13 2016-2021 14 2016-2021 15 2016-2021 16 2021 Wind 1.251.572.603.844.374.2951.91%46.87%51.35%47.57%46.69%38.11%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.01.02.03.04.05.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(0.470.711.422.132.241.7919.47%21.38%27.95%26.39%24.00%15.91%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.00.51.01.52.02.52016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 18.1329.4044.3055.5768.1974.297.53%8.80%8.73%6.88%7.29%6.59%0%2%4%6%8%10%010203040506070802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(21.6220.1822.8829.8033.1354.498.98%6.04%4.51%3.69%3.54%4.84%0%2%4%6%8%10%01020304050602016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 26.2728.5440.9864.3782.51129.2510.91%8.54%8.08%7.97%8.82%11.47%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0204060801001201402016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 技术75%销售11%生产8%行政5%财务1%12/24 3.1 2025 2018 4 11 4 13 30 2020 6 1 2025 17 2018 4 11 2018 4 13 30 2020 6 1 18 详解 实施后 13/24 2025 2035 2025 2025 2023 2024 2022 25 19 20 2023 2024 2025 2035 相 关 内容 1.17.18.2025 8 10 2021-2025 8 21 分类 具 体 内容 2021-2025 8 10 115.38 14/24(2021-2025)10 115.38 22 序号 类型 口 岸 名称 批 准 时间“十 四五”期 间匡算 投资 1 1990 年 12.92 2011 2 1957 17.1 2004 3 1990 2.5 4 1958 2.13 5 1984 18.63 6 2003 6.77 7 1994 3.43 8 2020 12.3 9/26.6 10/13 115.38 2021-2025 7 2023 2022 7 20 9715.78 22 7 25 1.47 22 8 1 3.53 6 2023 2 3 7.13/9 2023 23 2023 2 3 口岸 名称 项 目 名称 招 采 单位 第 一 中标候选 人 投 标 总报价 工期/交货期 2022/7/20 EPC 9715.78 210 2022/7/25 1.47 375 2022/8/1 3.53 375 2022/10/25-579.99 30 2022/12/9-1968.03 60 2022/12/9 3837.72 90 15/24 2022/12/12 368.36 90 2022/12/16 3758.66 60 2023/1/7-1116 90 7.13 3.2 313 4 2020 12 30 313 129 53 76 104 22 82 80 24 25 2020 1 2010-2019 3.8 6.7 6.5%2011-2019 2374.3 3623.5 26 2010-2021 27 2011-2021*31312910480050100150200250300350 3.84.14.34.54.95.25.766.36.71.3 1.3-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%024682010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 yoy2374.32442.5 2485.52952.53623.51409.401,0002,0003,0004,0002011 2013 2015 2017 2019 16/24*2020 2021 2 2021 248 2011 68 2013 3559 2019 8533 15.69%2013 154.5 2019 241.9 3 2022 6.31 2010 2 2021 29.8%28 2011-2021 29 2013-2021 30 2013-2021 31 2010-2022 13 9.5 55 2020 5 49 180 183193202210218229235 238 2412480501001502002503002011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 3559416052246145657174948533105320702,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002013 2015 2017 2019 2021 154.5168.4186.8193.2222.1242.7 241.9223.1266.70501001502002503002013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2.973.643.874.164.303.953.694.114.624.58 4.666.046.3122.5%6.2%7.5%3.4%-8.1%-6.8%11.4%12.5%-1.0%1.7%29.8%4.4%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%012345672010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 yoy 17/24 2021 32 2010 11 EDI 2014 12 2015 4 2015 6 2016 8 1 2 3 6 3 2016 11 2018 6-8 2018 6 14 30 2018 8 28 6 22 2019 2/2021 9 5G/18/24 33 2020 12()4.08 T1 34 35 2020 2021 1.3 2019 20%23 1 8 5G 19/24 36 37 2023 2023 2 1 1 2023-02-01-1116 2 2023-01-20-675 3 2023-01-19 T3-48.5 4 2023-01-16()106 5 2023-01-13 T3-48.5 6 2023-01-12-675 7 2023-01-12 T2 1408.6 8 2023-01-10 396.28 9 2023-01-09 438.59 10 2023-01-09 2022 271.93 11 2023-01-04 113.6 12 2023-01-04 251.4 13 2023-01-03 184.99 5734.39 3.3 2013 9 10 21 2015 3 21 20/24 38 事件/政策 相 关 内容 2013 9 10 21 2015 3 21 2022 11 2021 2022/5G 39 40 2022-2024 1 2022 22-24 0.00%90.00%30.00%2 22-24 20.00%20.00%20%3 22-24 2021 2022-2024 7.00%6.50%6.00%7.30%3.70%3.50%15.00%9.00%8.50%21/24 41 2019-2024E 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营收业务 拆分 假设（百万 元）799.28 880.62 1086.93 1086.93 2065.17 2684.72 YOY(%)66.16%10.18%23.43%0.00%90.00%30.00%7.32 54.29 39.80 47.77 57.32 68.78 YOY(%)-70.75%641.31%-26.67%20.00%20.00%20.00%0.78 0.21 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 YOY(%)-33.66%-73.57%-64.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%807.39 935.11 1126.81 1134.77 2122.56 2753.58 YOY(%)59.17%15.82%20.50%0.71%87.05%29.73%42 2019-2024E 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 7.97%8.82%11.47%15.00%9.00%8.50%6.88%7.29%6.59%7.00%6.50%6.00%3.69%3.54%4.84%7.30%3.70%3.50%2022-2024 11.35 21.23 27.54 1.35 4.10 5.99 EPS 0.52 1.59 2.32 PE 65.2 21.5 14.8 2023 1.2022 2022 2.2022 3.22/24 4.5.6.23/24 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2802 2801 3814 4726 1730 1791 1948 2320 731 615 1150 1492 14 15 29 38 22 19 35 46 302 352 636 810 5 8 16 20 228 209 186 165 18 18 18 18 93 80 67 53 35 29 23 17 82 82 78 76 3031 3010 3999 4891 930 809 1476 1892 0 0 0 0 427 375 677 862 503 435 800 1030 77 67 57 48 42 32 22 13 35 35 35 35 1006 876 1533 1940 0 0 0 0 257 258 258 258 1025 1071 1071 1071 743 852 1184 1669 2024 2134 2466 2951 3031 3010 3999 4891 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 141 66 239 477 179 135 410 599 7 23 23 21-11-4-5-7-32-28-1-13-78-57-189-125 76-3 1 1 3 28-0 12 6 0-0 0-17 0 0 0 14 28-0 12 4-31-82-116-1 0 0 0 42-10-10-9-37-21-73-107 148 62 156 372 iFinD 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1127 1135 2123 2754 697 658 1189 1514 5 6 11 14 74 79 138 165 54 83 79 96 129 170 191 234-11-4-5-7-2-2-11-14-48-54-102-132 26 21 18 20 0 0 0 0 32 28 1 13 0 0 0 0 186 136 427 624 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 186 135 427 623 6-0 17 25 179 135 410 599 0 0 0 0 179 135 410 599 EBITDA 182 154 445 638 EPS 0.69 0.52 1.59 2.32 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E(%)20.5 0.7 87.0 29.7(%)-27.6-26.9 215.0 46.0(%)-20.1-24.4 202.6 46.0(%)38.1 42.0 44.0 45.0(%)15.9 11.9 19.3 21.7 ROE(%)8.9 6.3 16.6 20.3 ROIC(%)41.4 29.2 82.9 78.7(%)33.2 29.1 38.3 39.7(%)-83.4-82.4-78.1-78.2 3.0 3.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.1 2.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.21 3.49 3.49 3.49()0.69 0.52 1.59 2.32()0.55 0.25 0.93 1.85()7.84 8.27 9.56 11.44 P/E 49.3 65.2 21.5 14.8 P/B 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.0 EV/EBITDA 40 47 16 11 :6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%“”2022 4008866338 5023 B 25 518033 1333 26 200120 021 33830395 9 16 100033
