2009 1210 2023 04 24 2021 2022 30%1 4 2012 2021 65%63%2 2022 31%45%36%26%31 0.3 2018-2021 1 11 2021 1.94/2 13 2021 25%1.52 1.10/3 7 2021 45%0.44 0.82/31 1 3 2018-2021 2015-2018 2 31 3 1 2022 2 3 A S0360522110001%()119 0.02()15,143.66 1.59()14,388.84 2.00%1M 6M 12M-2.4%-3.0%-11.5%-3.7%-10.7%-12.4%2023-04-20 2023-04-18 3 2023-04-14-15%-4%7%18%22/04 22/07 22/09 22/11 23/02 23/042022-04-252023-04-21 300 2009 1210 31 0.3 2018-2021 31 3 2018-2021 2015-2018 31 3 1.1 30 1 2022 2 3 A 2009 1210 3.5.5.6.8.10.10.12.13.13 2009 1210 4 1 18.5%65%.5 2 13.5%25%.5 3 3.4%63%.5 4 2.9%47%.5 5 0.3.6 6 2.6%.6 7 5.3%.6 8.7 9.7 10 7.8 11 2018-2021 2015-2018.9 12 2009-2021.10 13 3.11 14 11 5.11 15.12 2009 1210 5 31 2012 60%1 4 2011 1-2 2021 19%65%3.4%63%2 2022 31%45%36%26%1 18.5%65%2 13.5%25%Wind Wind 3 3.4%63%4 2.9%47%Wind Wind 050010001500200025003000350040000500100015002000250030003500400045002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022,050010001500200025003000210022002300240025002600270028002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022,01000200030004000500060007000800090001000041004150420042504300435044002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022,0500100015002000250030003500400023602380240024202440246024802010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022,2009 1210 6 31 0.3 2018-2021 5 0.3 Wind 6 2.6%7 5.3%Wind Wind-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 050010001500200025003000350034203440346034803500352035403560358036002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022,05001000150020002500244024602480250025202540256025802010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022,2009 1210 7 8 9 Wind Wind 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000020004000600080001000012000140002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022,020004000600080001000012000010002000300040005000600070002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022,2009 1210 8 2010-2021 9 7 1 9 26%2 15 60%3 7 14%6 2011 2017 10 7 Wind 3 2018-2021 2015-2018 1 2018-2021 4.3%2.7%2 2018-2021-6.1%-4.4%2021年常住人口（万人）2021年常住人占比2009-2021常住人口走势图 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022浙江 6540 5%3.0%3.2%2.3%2.1%1.7%1.8%1.6%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.6%1.5%1.1%0.6%海南 1020 1%1.2%0.6%2.4%2.2%1.1%1.7%1.0%1.3%1.6%1.0%1.3%1.7%0.8%0.7%西藏 366 0%3.5%1.3%2.7%1.9%0.6%2.5%1.5%3.0%2.6%1.4%2.0%1.4%0.0%新疆 2589 2%1.3%1.2%1.8%1.3%1.4%1.8%2.6%1.8%2.1%1.6%1.5%1.2%0.0%-0.1%广东 12684 9%6.1%3.1%3.0%2.6%2.1%1.9%1.6%2.0%2.0%1.7%1.1%1.1%0.5%-0.2%宁夏 725 1%1.2%1.3%2.4%1.7%1.1%1.8%0.9%1.6%1.4%0.7%1.0%0.6%0.6%福建 4187 3%1.7%0.7%2.5%1.5%1.1%1.5%1.0%0.8%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.6%0.0%广西 5037 4%0.8%-5.1%1.0%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.9%1.0%1.0%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.4%0.2%重庆 3212 2%0.7%0.9%2.0%1.1%1.2%1.1%0.9%1.3%1.1%0.6%0.8%0.7%0.1%0.0%青海 594 0%0.5%1.1%0.9%0.5%0.0%0.9%0.2%0.9%0.7%0.2%0.5%0.5%0.2%0.2%山东 10170 7%0.6%1.2%0.8%0.4%0.4%0.6%0.6%1.1%0.6%0.4%0.3%0.6%0.0%-0.1%贵州 3852 3%-6.7%-1.6%1.5%1.6%1.3%1.2%0.8%1.3%1.2%0.5%0.7%0.3%-0.2%0.1%江苏 8505 6%1.7%0.8%2.0%1.2%0.9%1.1%0.4%0.8%0.5%0.3%0.3%0.1%0.3%0.1%四川 8372 6%0.6%-1.7%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%安徽 6113 4%-0.1%-2.8%0.3%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%陕西 3954 3%-0.9%0.2%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.6%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.7%0.3%0.3%0.0%上海 2489 2%17.0%4.2%2.3%1.8%2.0%0.8%-0.4%0.4%0.0%0.4%0.2%0.3%0.0%-0.5%河北 7448 5%0.6%2.3%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.2%0.3%0.2%-0.2%-0.4%河南 9883 7%0.6%-0.9%0.6%0.8%0.4%0.8%0.6%0.8%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%-0.6%-0.1%江西 4517 3%0.7%0.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.2%北京 2189 2%3.5%11.8%3.1%2.7%2.3%2.2%0.8%0.3%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.2%湖南 6622 5%0.4%2.6%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%-0.3%-0.3%湖北 5830 4%0.2%0.1%0.6%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.6%0.6%0.3%0.2%0.2%-3.1%1.5%0.2%云南 4690 3%0.6%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%-0.7%0.1%山西 3480 2%0.5%4.3%-0.3%-0.4%-0.4%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%-0.2%-0.3%0.0%天津 1373 1%4.4%5.8%3.2%2.8%2.3%1.3%0.7%0.3%-2.3%-1.9%0.1%0.1%-1.0%-0.7%内蒙古 2400 2%0.6%0.6%-0.1%-0.2%-0.4%-0.2%-0.4%-0.2%-0.1%-0.5%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%0.0%甘肃 2490 2%-2.8%0.2%-0.3%-0.1%-0.5%-0.2%-0.3%-0.1%0.1%-0.3%-0.2%-0.3%-0.4%0.1%辽宁 4229 3%0.6%0.8%0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.5%-0.3%-0.3%-0.5%-0.3%-0.5%-0.6%-0.8%吉林 2375 2%0.2%0.3%-0.8%-1.0%-1.1%-1.0%-1.1%-1.8%-1.6%-1.7%-1.4%-2.0%-1.0%-1.1%黑龙江 3125 2%0.0%0.2%-1.3%-1.5%-1.6%-1.6%-2.2%-1.9%-1.8%-2.1%-2.2%-2.6%-1.5%-0.8%2009 1210 9 11 2018-2021 2015-2018 Wind-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%2018-2021 2015-2018 2009 1210 10 11 2021 1.94/13 2021 25%1.52 1.10/7 2021 45%0.44 0.82/3 2022 2009-2021 2021 1.27 2022 0.96 2017 12 2009-2021 Wind 3 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.402009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/2009 1210 11 13 3 Wind 1 11 2021 2021 1.94 1.71 1.70 1.66 2 13 2021 25%3 7 2021 45%5 14 11 5 Wind-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3 省份 人均销售面积趋势图 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 最大跌幅江苏 1.30 1.18 0.98 1.10 1.38 1.18 1.36 1.66 1.68 1.59 1.65 1.81 1.94 1.42安徽 0.68 0.70 0.77 0.81 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.40 1.51 1.65 1.51 1.56 1.71 1.22江西 0.51 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.71 0.68 0.77 1.04 1.29 1.37 1.43 1.49 1.70 1.48福建 0.74 0.68 0.70 0.84 1.19 1.03 1.01 1.21 1.43 1.50 1.55 1.58 1.66 1.44四川 0.74 0.79 0.81 0.80 0.90 0.87 0.93 1.12 1.31 1.46 1.55 1.58 1.64 1.23贵州 0.48 0.49 0.52 0.60 0.81 0.86 0.95 1.09 1.23 1.35 1.38 1.44 1.45 1.00山东 0.73 0.96 0.99 0.89 1.05 0.93 0.98 1.18 1.27 1.33 1.25 1.30 1.40 1.15新疆 0.64 0.70 0.77 0.63 0.87 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.63 0.57 0.67 0.76 0.93 0.59山西 0.29 0.33 0.36 0.42 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.59 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.77 0.92 0.65甘肃 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.39 0.48 0.53 0.57 0.67 0.62 0.64 0.68 0.79 0.89 0.59西藏 0.21 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.18 0.15 0.21 0.15 0.20 0.35 0.25 0.39 0.16重庆 1.39 1.47 1.52 1.50 1.58 1.66 1.73 1.99 2.12 2.05 1.90 1.91 1.93 1.38 9%浙江 1.02 0.86 0.62 0.69 0.83 0.78 0.99 1.40 1.53 1.53 1.45 1.57 1.52 1.03 3%宁夏 1.22 1.44 1.28 1.21 1.55 1.65 1.21 1.37 1.44 1.43 1.40 1.51 1.39 0.98 16%湖南 0.53 0.68 0.74 0.78 0.90 0.82 0.96 1.22 1.29 1.39 1.37 1.43 1.39 1.03 2%湖北 0.47 0.61 0.72 0.70 0.91 0.96 1.06 1.26 1.38 1.50 1.50 1.13 1.36 1.09 9%河南 0.46 0.58 0.66 0.62 0.76 0.81 0.88 1.15 1.35 1.41 1.44 1.43 1.34 1.13 6%广西 0.52 0.60 0.63 0.58 0.63 0.66 0.73 0.86 1.05 1.25 1.34 1.34 1.22 0.86 8%广东 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.70 0.86 0.80 0.98 1.20 1.29 1.15 1.10 1.18 1.10 0.83 15%陕西 0.56 0.69 0.81 0.72 0.80 0.80 0.77 0.84 0.99 1.04 1.11 1.13 1.08 0.84 4%云南 0.48 0.64 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.78 0.92 0.96 1.02 1.04 0.83 0.63 20%河北 0.41 0.64 0.81 0.71 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.90 0.87 0.71 0.71 0.81 0.83 0.62 8%吉林 0.71 0.87 0.90 0.92 0.84 0.61 0.58 0.76 0.76 0.85 0.88 0.77 0.78 0.43 15%青海 0.39 0.49 0.63 0.46 0.66 0.72 0.68 0.75 0.84 0.76 0.81 0.79 0.65 0.34 23%天津 1.22 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.29 1.12 1.23 1.92 1.07 0.90 1.07 0.95 1.06 0.72 45%海南 0.65 0.96 0.95 1.01 1.27 1.06 1.10 1.55 2.33 1.44 0.82 0.74 0.87 0.62 63%辽宁 1.23 1.55 1.72 2.02 2.13 1.33 0.91 0.86 0.97 0.92 0.87 0.89 0.82 0.52 62%内蒙古 1.04 1.24 1.42 1.03 1.12 1.01 0.97 1.04 0.85 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.78 0.58 45%上海 1.46 0.87 0.74 0.78 0.97 0.85 0.99 1.10 0.68 0.71 0.68 0.72 0.76 0.75 48%北京 1.20 0.81 0.69 0.91 0.88 0.66 0.71 0.76 0.40 0.32 0.43 0.44 0.51 0.48 58%黑龙江 0.53 0.72 0.92 1.04 0.93 0.70 0.58 0.62 0.68 0.59 0.53 0.48 0.44 0.30 58%人均销售面积（平米/人）2009 1210 12 1 4 2021 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 4 1.1 30 2 2021 1.94 41 3 1.3 0.8 15 Wind-7.5%-6.0%-4.5%-3.0%-1.5%0.0%1.5%3.0%4.5%6.0%0.00 0.40 0.80 1.20 1.60 2.002018-2021 2021/2009 1210 13 1 2022 2 3 A 2009 1210 14 4 2022 2 2022 2009 1210 15 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 16(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522