2023 年6 月1 日证券研 究报告 平 安 证 券 研究所 绿 色 能 源与 前瞻性产业研 究团队皮 秀 证 券 投资 咨 询资 格：S1060517070004 邮箱：2 2022-2025 CAGR 30.4%2025 1TWh 7000/2022/200%/2022 2/3 2022/+154.3%/+597.2%2022/+57.8%/+195.0%2022/+90.3%/115.7%/2022+75.7%/+88.5%2022/+50.0%/45.4%/2022/+65.3%/72.2%TOP2 50%1 2023 2 3 3 2022 GGII EVTank Mysteel 1656/3150 4309 755 650 177 390 5200 BMS 1.4 5200 6000 3C 150 4400 142 251/177/LISIF 375 PP/PE 2269/4 Wind 2023 5 31-LG 安纳达-MHP CONTENT 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 6 80%1.1 Cell Module Pack BMS 2021.4-2023.4 85.2%/83.3%/81.5%2021.4-2023.4 84%/82.1%/78.8%80%BMS 2021.4-2023.4 2021 4 2022 4 2023 4/kWh/kWh/kWh 660 85.2%875 83.3%725 81.5%775 1050 890525 84.0%800 82.1%650 78.8%625 975 8257 2022-2025 CAGR 30.4%1.2 2023-2025 1422.4/1754.6/2100.5 35.2%/23.3%/19.7%2023-2025 968.4/1248.7/1515.8GWh 41.7%/28.9%/21.4%EV-Volumes Marklines Clean Technica 2020-2025 324.4676.81,052.21,422.41,754.62,100.542.5%108.6%55.5%35.2%23.3%19.7%0%25%50%75%100%125%050010001500200025002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 158.2 371.0 683.2 968.4 1,248.7 1,515.8 26.4%134.5%84.2%41.7%28.9%21.4%0%30%60%90%120%150%020040060080010001200140016002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E(GWh)2020-2025 SNE Research EVTank 8 2025 1TWh1.2 2021 352.0+157.5%220GWh+176.4%2022 465.5GWh+111.6%68.1GWh 14.6%2023-2025 907.8/1119.2/1321.6 31.8%/23.3%/18.1%2022-2025 666.7/834.6/988.7GWh 43.2%/25.2%/18.5%2020-2025 136.7 352.0 688.7 907.8 1,119.2 1,321.6 13.4%157.5%95.7%31.8%23.3%18.1%0%50%100%150%200%0500100015002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 79.6 220.0 465.5 666.7 834.6 988.7 13.2%176.4%111.6%43.2%25.2%18.5%0%30%60%90%120%150%180%035070010502020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E GWh 2020-2025 9 2025 7000 1.2 2022 10 46.0%28.6%2023 16.3%/12.4%2024-2025 2025/0.671/Wh 0.790/Wh 2023-2025 5208.4/6178.9/7004.8 20.9%/18.6%/13.4%GGII,2020-2025 0.784 0.768 0.988 0.865 0.817 0.790 0.618 0.606 0.885 0.741 0.704 0.671 0.40.50.60.70.80.91.01.11.22020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E/Wh/Wh 571.8 1,500.1 4,308.8 5,208.4 6,178.9 7,004.8-22.1%162.4%187.2%20.9%18.6%13.4%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%020004000600080002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2020-2025,10 1.3 2022 93.2%2019-2022 CTP 600 2021 2023Q1 68.2%66.5%61.1%48.1%37.5%31.6%32.7%38.3%51.6%62.4%68.2%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.2%0.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1:,2018-2022 2019-2023Q1 82.5%90.0%80.7%85.6%93.2%4.5%6.7%13.3%6.6%4.5%13.0%3.3%6.0%7.8%2.3%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 11/1.4 1/3 2021-2023Q1 8.8%16.2%7.4pcts 4 2 2021-2023Q1 2.7%/3.9%/4.3%2023 Q1 2023Q1 1.8%CR4 2021 73.6%2023Q1 74.6%1.0pcts CR10 2021 90.3%2023Q1 95.6%SNE Research 2021 37.0%13.6%13.6%7.3%5.4%4.7%3.9%2.7%1.8%1.4%8.6%LG SK On SDI 32.5%20.2%12.1%8.8%5.6%4.4%2.7%2.2%0.9%0.8%9.7%LG SK On SDI 35.0%16.2%14.5%8.9%5.3%4.9%4.3%2.2%1.8%1.4%5.4%LG SK On SDI 2022 2023 Q1 12/1.5 2022/2365.9/184.8/183.2/144.0/126.9 2022 17.2%/16.7%/15.0%2019-2022 5.2%/13.7%/5.5%/10.3%2022 2020-2022-14.9%/0.9%/10.3%2019-2022:Wind 385.8 394.3 914.9 2365.943.2 62.8 85.4 184.8 14.1 25.0 60.8 183.2 100.1 144.0 8.5 4.3 29.3 126.9 02505007501,0001,2502019 2020 2021 2022 17.2%16.7%15.0%10.3%-20%0%20%40%2019 2020 2021 2022:Wind 13 2022/200%1.5 2022 242GWh+107.4%2365.9+158.60%120GWh 2022 183.2+201.3%/2022 23.12GWh+82.9%184.8+116.4%/WinGroup 5GWh 2022 18GWh+40%/2022 12.11GWh+246.0%126.9+333.1%/Wind GWh 40.36 44.45 116.71 2424.88 8.27 12.64 23.12 1.62 3.93 9.31 13.00 18.00 3.50 12.11 040801201602019 2020 2021 2022/Wh 0.960.890.780.980.880.760.680.800.870.640.650.60.70.80.91.02019 2020 2021 2022 CONTENT 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 15 2.1.1/NCM811 LiFSI PET:GGII/&/VC FEC PP/PE/16 2022 2/32.1.2 2022/2268.7/1655.9/755.4/650.0/390.4/176.5 66.6%2019-2022 40%2022 28.1%16.6pcts/2019-2022 EVTank GGII 43.5%41.7%37.1%38.5%5.6%5.9%11.5%28.1%19.0%21.3%16.9%12.8%12.9%14.3%16.6%11.0%12.4%11.2%13.0%6.6%6.5%5.6%4.9%3.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2019-2022 EVTank GGII 287.0341.2769.02268.737.2 48.0237.51655.9125.4173.9350.2755.485.1117.0344.8650.081.8 91.8268.5390.442.845.8102.5176.506001,2001,8002,4002019 2020 2021 2022 17 2.1.3 2022 49.3%2022 31.7%2022 24.0%2022 20.0%2022 15.3%2022 12.6%2019-2022 Wind/15.6%12.9%15.9%12.6%22.7%14.2%28.2%15.3%25.2%26.0%30.3%31.7%31.7%32.6%30.7%24.0%47.7%42.1%49.8%49.3%25.6%20.9%25.4%20.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%2019 2020 2021 2022 CONTENT 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 19 2.2.1 45%NCM&NCA LFP LMO NCM NCA NCMA LGES NCM NCA NCA 60%NCM333 NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 NCA mAh/g 148 170 278 278 278 278 279 mAh/g 100-120 130-150 150-170 160-180 170-190 180-210 200-220 Wh/kg 120-140 140-160 170-190 180-210 210-230 230-270 240-270 500-1000 2000 1500-2000 1500-2000 1500-2000 1500-2000 1500-2000 20 2022 2.2.2 EVTank 2022 194.7 78.0%2021 2022 58.7%17.7pcts 33.8%4.3pcts 32.4 40.753.8109.4194.725.6%32.2%103.3%78.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0551101652202018 2019 2020 2021 2022LFP NCM&NCA LCO LMO EVTank 2018-2022 2018-2022 18.2%20.1%25.3%41.0%58.7%44.8%46.7%43.9%38.1%33.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022LFP NCM&NCA LCO LMO EVTank 21 2.2.2 2022 4391.2 209.4%51.7%2022 37.7%EVTank 资 料来 源：EVTank，平 安证券 研究所603.7507.4605.11419.24391.2-16.0%19.3%134.5%209.4%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0100020003000400050002018 2019 2020 2021 2022LFP NCM&NCA LCO LMO 2018-2022 7.1%7.3%7.9%16.7%37.7%46.6%56.6%56.4%54.2%51.7%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022LFP NCM&NCA LCO LMO2018-2022 22 2.2.3 190Wh/kg 1000km 24 2022 59.9 NCM811 NCA 26.5 44.3%2021 7.1pcts NCM622 2021 7.8pcts 2%10.1%21.6%35.1%42.5%1.6%0.9%2.1%1.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022NCM333 NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 NCA 2018-2022 资 料来 源：Wind，平 安 证券 研 究所 11 0.65 0 2025 44 2024 10 2025 30 2024 23 2.2.4 2021-2023Q1 26.2%/29.0%/32.6%CR4 2021-2023Q1 CR4 62.3%/62.3%/64.5%2021-2023Q1 20.9%/15.9%/18.7%2023Q1 2.8pcts 2023Q1 2023Q1 Wind 2022 29.0%15.9%8.8%8.7%8.5%5.6%5.6%4.0%3.0%3.0%7.9%26.2%20.9%8.5%6.7%6.6%6.5%4.8%3.6%3.2%2.9%10.0%32.6%18.7%6.7%6.5%6.0%4.4%4.2%4.2%3.8%2.9%10.0%2021 2023Q1 2412.4%11.3%10.8%10.4%7.7%7.4%6.4%6.2%4.1%3.7%19.7%2.2.4 2021-2023Q1 12.4%/15.5%/22.6%2023 Q1 7.1pcts NCM811 CR4 2021 44.9%2023Q1 56.8%3.3-6.5 90%2021 15.5%13.8%11.0%10.3%9.4%8.1%7.6%5.6%3.6%3.3%11.8%22.6%11.7%11.6%10.9%9.2%7.9%6.1%4.8%4.8%2.5%7.9%2022 2023Q1 251.6 5.6 9.3 69.4 426.7 10.1 10.0 9.1 48.1 225.4 8.2 7.0 6.2 21.7 122.4 01503004502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2.2.5 Wind Wind 12.5%20.1%16.6%5%14%23%32%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 426.7/225.4/122.4 2020 2021 2022 26 2.2.5 2022 32.39+167.0%426.7+514.8%/2022 17.20+88.6%225.4+368.6%2022 9.22+130.5%122.4+464.1%/Wind 1.25 3.14 12.13 32.39 2.34 3.07 9.12 17.20 1.47 1.88 4.00 9.22 07142128352019 2020 2021 2022/13.272.06.010.014.02019 2020 2021 2022 2736.2 35.195.7272.547.6228.016.924.769.1190.623.817.068.0179.125.217.140.2136.524.310.454.8135.301002003002019 2020 2021 2022 2.2.5 SMM Wind 2022/272.5/228.0/190.6/179.1/136.5/135.3 6 8 2022/8.6%18.3%14.1%10.2%13.2%5%10%15%20%2019 2020 2021 2022 28 2.2.5 2022 8.9+71.2%272.5+184.7%2022 8.0+70.2%228.0()+379.0%LG 2022 6.1+40.9%190.6+175.8%SK On LGES SDI 2022 6.6+57.1%179.1+163.4%2022 4.6+70.4%136.5+239.6%ATL 2022 4.4+33.3%135.3+146.9%CATL ATL 2022 Wind 2.2 2.6 5.2 8.9 4.7 8.0 1.9 1.6 4.2 6.6 1.3 2.1 4.4 6.2 1.8 1.6 2.7 4.6 1.8 0.8 3.3 4.4 02468102019 2020 2021 2022/28.4027.0930.9929.4330.4891725332019 2020 2021 2022 CONTENT 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 302.3.1 1 0 TVTank 31 2022 2.3.2 2022 137.0+90.3%2022 755.4+115.7%2022 84%2021 15%2022 14.6 19.226.436.572.0137.031.5%37.3%38.4%97.3%90.3%0%25%50%75%100%125%0501001502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GGII GGII 2017-2022 69.6 95.6125.4173.9350.2755.437.4%31.2%38.7%101.3%115.7%0%50%100%150%02004006008002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017-2022 32 2.3.3 2021-2023Q1 25.0%/26.2%/26.9%2021-2023Q1 CR4 67.2%/61.7%/61.8%2021-2023Q1 14.9%15.0%/17.6%0/2.7%/3.3%2022 3 2022 26.9%17.6%9.2%8.1%7.8%7.7%5.9%3.3%3.2%1.6%8.6%26.2%15.0%10.6%9.9%9.7%9.2%5.7%3.2%2.7%1.4%6.4%25.0%14.9%14.8%12.5%9.7%8.6%5.8%1.5%1.3%0.5%5.4%2021 2023Q1 33 2.3.4 Wind 29.331.564.6146.325.4 25.241.480.630.536.351.376.57.0 7.518.948.33.55.018.942.0040801201602019 2020 2021 2022 Wind 20.51%22.13%25.89%18.03%43.60%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2019 2020 2021 2022 2022/146.3/80.6/76.5/48.3/42.0 2019-2022 40%2019-2022 39.1%/36.8%/31.4%/20.5%34/2022 2.3.4 Wind 7.5 16.6 33.0 4.7 5.9 10.1 18.3 4.6 6.3 9.7 14.0 1.8 2.4 5.9 11.4 1.1 1.9 6.5 10.7 0612182430362019 2020 2021 2022/4.434.415.484.233.922.53.54.55.56.57.52019 2020 2021 2022 2022 33.0+98.8%146.3+126.5%LGES SDI 2022 18.3+81.2%80.6+94.7%CATL LGES ATL SDI 2022 14.0+44.3%76.5+49.1%LG ATL SDI 1/2022 11.4+93.2%48.3+155.6%SK On 2022 10.7+64.6%42.0+122.2%CONTENT 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 36 2.4.1 3C 3C 3C 2C/0.2C 3C 3C 37 2022 2.4.2 2022 89.1+75.7%650.0+88.5%2022 68.7%16.0pcts 2022 12.4%3.3pcts 2022 0.6pcts 8.4%11.815.319.826.850.789.129.7%29.4%35.4%89.2%75.7%0%25%50%75%100%125%02550751002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3C EVTank EVTank 2017-2022 72.069.985.1117.0344.8650.0-2.9%21.7%37.5%194.7%88.5%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%02004006008002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017-2022 4.3%9.0%8.4%0%25%50%75%100%2020 2021 2022 EVTank GGII 68.7%12.4%18.9%38 2.4.3 2020 26.8%2022 35.9%2022 CR4 2020 61.3%2022 69.3%CR10 2020 81.0%2022 88.3%EVTank 2022 28.8%15.8%13.8%5.9%5.6%3.9%3.6%3.0%2.0%2.0%15.7%26.8%14.5%12.6%7.4%5.6%3.5%3.2%2.6%2.5%2.2%19.0%35.9%12.3%11.4%9.7%4.3%4.3%3.4%3.1%2.0%1.9%11.7%2021 2020 39 Wind 17.0 26.6 97.3 208.2 11.6 16.6 52.7 74.0 14.1 15.2 47.7 59.0 1.7 2.3 12.3 18.3 0551101652202019 2020 2021 2022 Wind 27.2%27.6%36.0%38.6%26.1%19.1%17.6%8%18%28%38%2019 2020 2021 2022 2022/208.2/74.0/59.0/18.3 2019-2022 27.2%/27.6%/36.0%/38.6%2022/26.1%/19.1%/17.6%2.4.440 2022 2.4.4 Wind 7.3 14.4 32.0 3.8 9.2 14.3 3.1 3.3 7.2 8.7 0.7 1.6 2.6 0612182430362019 2020 2021 2022 6.816.923.04.05.06.07.08.02019 2020 2021 2022 2022 32.0+122.2%208.2+114.0%LGES Tesla 2022 14.3+55.4%74.0+40.4%LG SKI 2022 8.7+20.8%59.0+23.7%LG 2022 2.6+62.5%18.0+48.8%/CONTENT 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 42 2.5.1(CCL)(PCB)CC L PCB,12-70um 6um EVTank 43 2022 50%2.5.2 2022 42.0+50.0%390.4+45.4%6um 2022 78%12pcts 6um 5 4.5 3.5 3 9.410.812.428.042.014.9%14.8%125.8%50.0%0%50%100%150%010203040502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GGII GGII,2018-2022 71.481.891.8268.5390.414.5%12.2%192.6%45.4%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%01002003004002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018-2022 45%66%78%0%25%50%75%100%2020 2021 20226um 6um 6um GGII 44 2.5.3 2022 688388.SH 600110.SH+4.1pcts 2022 200%2.7pcts 301150.SZ 301217.SZ CR4 2021 56.0%2022 49.9%2022 23.0%13.0%11.0%9.0%7.0%6.0%6.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%13.0%15.5%13.1%11.2%10.1%6.7%5.2%4.8%5.5%3.7%2.4%21.9%2021 GGII 45 Wind 14.3 10.8 25.2 44.7 18.1 18.9 40.9 42.9 4.1 6.6 13.0 21.2 5.9 5.4 13.1 14.4 010203040502019 2020 2021 2022 Wind 34.9%25.9%30.2%20.4%10%15%20%25%30%35%2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2022/44.7/21.2/14.4 18%-30%2019-2022 34.9%/25.9%/30.2%/20.4%2022+2.5.446/2.5.4 1.71 1.40 2.49 4.69 1.94 2.03 3.51 4.23 0.58 0.88 1.35 2.29 0.80 0.76 1.42 1.55 0.01.02.03.04.05.02019 2020 2021 2022/9.529.289.296.57.58.59.510.52019 2020 2021 2022 2022 4.69+88.4%44.7+77.4%ATL 2019-2022 2022 4.23 42.9+4.9%LG ATL SKI 2022 2.29+69.6%21.2+63.1%2022 1.55+9.2%14.4+9.9%CONTENT 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 482.6.1 PVDF 资 料来 源：赛 迪 顾问，陶瓷 涂覆的 电池隔 膜及其 制备方 法与流 程，平安证 券研究 所49 2022 65%2.6.2 2022 133.2+65.3%176.5+72.2%2022 78.7%+1.0pcts 2022 21.3%-1.0pcts 16.422.829.838.780.6133.239.0%30.7%29.9%108.3%65.3%0%25%50%75%100%125%035701051402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 EVTank GGII 2017-2022 49.7 46.142.845.8102.5176.5-7.2%-7.2%7.0%123.8%72.2%-50%0%50%100%150%0501001502002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017-2022 50 2.6.3 90%2022 38.1%2021 12.8%9.1%7.4%CR4 70%CR10 2020 87.2%2022 89.7%EVTank 39.6%15.1%9.3%6.6%6.3%4.8%3.2%3.1%1.9%1.8%8.3%31.5%18.1%12.7%6.0%5.6%5.6%3.0%2.3%1.4%1.0%12.8%38.1%12.8%9.1%7.4%7.4%4.2%3.7%2.7%2.3%2.0%10.3%2021 2022 2020 51 Wind 2021-2022 19.428.964.4110.06.08.818.428.63.4 5.8 11.3 18.7 1.6 2.24.25.403060901202019 2020 2021 2022 Wind;49.5%45.4%53.2%50.4%41.7%31.3%37.8%45.3%40.2%27.7%-55.0%-27.5%0.0%27.5%55.0%2019 2020 2021 2022 2022/110.0/28.6/18.7/5.4 TOP2 31%-53%50%2019-2022 49.5%/45.4%/53.2%/50.4%2019-2022 41.7%/31.3%/37.8%/45.3%TOP2 2.6.452 2.6.4 8.0 13.0 30.0 47.5 3.5 7.0 12.2 17.0 1.8 3.9 6.9 11.3 1.3 1.2 2.1 3.0 010203040502019 2020 2021 2022/2.311.681.651.761.01.52.02.52019 2020 2021 2022 2022 47.5+58.3%110.0+70.8%LGES 2022 2022 17.0+39.3%28.6+55.4%LGES Northvolt 2022 11.3+63.8%18.7+65.5%LG SKI 2022 3.0+42.9%5.4+28.6%CONTENT 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 543.1 553.2 2023 :6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2023