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20230216-东方证券-固定收益_专题报告_2023产业债掘金之港口行业信用剖析与投资展望_31页_1mb (1).pdf

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20230216-东方证券-固定收益_专题报告_2023产业债掘金之港口行业信用剖析与投资展望_31页_1mb (1).pdf

|1 2 3 4 1 30%40%2 3 2019 10%40%3 2019 EBITDA 3 2021 2023 2020 2016 8 2018 6 2021 1 3|2.1.1.1.1.2.1.3.1.4.2.2.1.2.2.2.3.3.3.1.3.2.3.3.4.4.1.4.2.4.3.4.4.|3.4 2008.5.6.7.8.9.10.11.12 2021.15 2021.16.17.18.19.20.21.22.23 2022.24 2021.25.26 2021.27 2021.28 2019-2021.29 2019.30 2019.31 2021.32 2019.33 EBITDA.34 3.|4 35 5 3%.36.37 2022 1%.38 2022 5%.39.40 2022 2%.41 2022 10%.42 2022 1%.43 2022 20%.44.45 2022.46.47 2018.48 2 AA.49 2 AA.50 2016.51 2016.52 2016.53.54 bp.|5 2023 2023 2 13 1200 2242 1 Wind 2023 1 31 0501001502002503003504002016/012016/042016/072016/102017/012017/042017/072017/102018/012018/042018/072018/112019/022019/052019/082019/112020/022020/052020/082020/112021/022021/052021/082021/112022/022022/052022/082022/11(bp)|6 2 Wind 2023 2 13 30 200 50 3 Wind 2023 1 31 2023 2 13 01000200030004000500060007000800090000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%()300bp()AAA 102 1.64 38 AAA 22 2.67 47 AAA 52 2.06 50 AAA 63 0.74 48 AAA 24 2.54 64 AAA 10 2.71 56 AAA 35 1.09 46 AAA 98 3.04 66 AAA 130 1.02 58 AAA 40 1.39 62 AAA 65 1.04 66 AAA 67 1.35 66 AA+41 1.18 103 AAA 43 1.63 66 AA+15 0.68 150 AAA 63 2.29 67 AAA 67 2.45 69 AAA 57 1.44 54 AAA 130 1.08 66 AAA 25 2.60 72 AAA 30 0.73 46 AA+10 0.27 89 AA+30 1.54 91 AA+134 0.91 126 AA+90 1.55 145 AA+51 1.22 106 AAA 196 1.16 165 AAA 184 1.54 166 AA+196 0.94 327 AA 10 0.19 484 C 80|7 1 2020 1.1 21 1 2000-2007 2001 20%2 200 2 2008-2014 2008 10%3 2015 2010 3%4 2008 5 Wind Wind 2007 5 7-40000-200000200004000060000()6080100120140160200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022|8 1 2 3 6 2006 9 2019 13.25%12.61 2020 2022 4.29%|9 7 2019-5.82%2022 3.06 2022 2007 2019 8 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%020000400006000080000100000120000140000()2019 2020 2021 2022 2019-2022|10 8 9 Wind Wind/10%10 11 1.2 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002015/1/312015/5/312015/9/302016/1/312016/5/312016/9/302017/1/312017/5/312017/9/302018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/30()0204060801001202015/1/312015/5/312015/9/302016/1/312016/5/312016/9/302017/1/312017/5/312017/9/302018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/30(TEU)-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0246810121416()2019 2020 2021 2019-2021-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0200040006000800010000120001400016000(TEU)2019 2020 2021 2019-2021|11 12 2021 10/40%30%2021 17.4%13 Wind 2021 1.3 30%50%0500010000150000%20%40%60%80%100%(TEU)72%21%64%32%33%36%14%42%39%32%48%13%|12 1.923.20%14 2021=/(+)*2 15 2021 Wind=/(+)*2 4 3.20-4.80 4 1.92-3.20 4 3.00-3.84 4 3.84-6.40 4 4.80-9.60 4 4.80-19.200.20.40.60.81|13 35 5 2021 1.02pct 2023 16 Wind 2021 2022 3 1 405 74 2022 60 2 300 2021 200 2016 2019 2021 10.75 3 122 23 4 92 37 0204060801001201401600100200300400500600700()()|14 17 Wind 144 18 Wind 19 Wind 1.4 2007 2009-2014 2015 2019 2021 1 262.43 105.37 1 120.00 0.08 202320262 99.91 72.42 2 90.00 0.05 202420273 79.30 70.54 3 75.83 50.30 201820224 47.10 29.50 4 71.82 0.70 202320265 37.83 7.22 5 60.00 39.01 201420251 26.40 2.94 20132025 1 28.22 12.24 2023.092 20.67 2.41 20212025 2 22.08 7.50 2023.063 19.61 7.30 20132024 318.45 13.67 2022.124 16.22 0.15 20212025 4 17.83 10.46 2023.95 13.77 0.15 20212025 515.76 3.05 2023.12|15 20 Wind 2022 2 2.1 30%40%30%21 Wind-10-50510150%10%20%30%40%50%(pct)2019 2020 2021 2021 2019|16 6 22 Wind 2022 2022 23 2022 Wind 2020 2020 35%2021 2021 3.12pct 27.25%2021/12/8 2021/12/1 2021/12/3 2022/2/9 2022/4/1|17 2.2 2021 7 2021 2%12.34%2022 9.47%24 2021 Wind 5 10%30%2022 2019 10 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0100200300400500600()|18 25 Wind 26 2021 2.3 2019-2022H12022H1 2019-2022H12022H1 102 26 136 23-8 71 5 13 1-1 54 3 95 3 0 45 2 25 17-5 44 2 25 3-1 44 0 21 2 5 43 12 25 3-4 39 19 24 12-14 36 8 42 52-10 35 7 45 14-3 34 8 100 43-6 32 6 6 23-5 30 2 70 8-3 28 1 10 2-4 23 1 17 1 0 18 1 22 8-8 15 4 7 4 0 15 1 45 1-1 10 0 3 1 0 5 1 8 5-4 2 0 4 0 0 2.15 2.15 100%4.33 4.33 100%1.77 1.77 100%2.20 2.20 100%1.61 1.57 98%1.99 1.99 100%2.39 2.03 85%1.16 1.16 100%9.56 8.11 85%0.85 0.85 100%5.90 1.18 20%4.53 4.53 100%1.09 1.09 100%1.25 1.25 100%2.54 2.54 100%1.07 1.07 100%2.20 2.20 100%/2.34/1.99 1.03 52%0.75 0.75/1.16 1.16 100%/4.14/0.85 0.85 100%6.12 6.12 100%0.81 0.76 94%5.97 5.97 100%4.53 4.53 100%4.00 4.00 100%1.25 1.25 100%碶 1.70 1.70 100%/2.34/6.19 6.19 100%/0.75/1.04 1.04 100%5.97 5.97 100%1.21 1.19 98%4.81 4.81 100%6.94 4.81 100%3.02 3.02 100%3.81 3.81 100%2.00 1.56 78%0.95 0.95 100%1.46 1.46 100%3.32 2.01 61%/2.34/1.67 1.67 100%0.75 0.75/1.30 1.30 100%/4.14/5.97 5.97/|19 1 2021 2 2021 10.75 6%7%6%3 27 2021 Wind 2021 2 2019 2020 2021 28 2019-2021 Wind 0581038.IB 343 41%-16%-3%-13%-3%0%28%52%45%37%0%0881085.IB 135 22%-14%-2%-11%-1%0%4%20%15%51%30%031390206.IB 120 22%-13%-2%-10%-1%0%5%13%11%56%31%0681112.IB 225 12%-11%-4%-7%0%0%1%7%5%47%65%1282468.IB 77 31%-11%-3%-8%-2%-6%7%19%14%40%23%137813.SH 329 23%-13%-3%-9%0%1%5%18%14%42%30%1081034.IB 231 32%-13%-2%-10%0%0%4%26%21%38%8%0781001.IB 319 24%-12%-3%-9%0%1%3%17%13%46%33%112082.SZ 153 41%-23%-10%-13%-3%-2%41%60%50%37%0%042180001.IB 182 27%-31%-20%-11%-6%1%3%-5%-8%61%0%0982077.IB 123 31%-11%-4%-7%0%-1%3%23%17%29%088009.IB 170 25%-28%-16%-12%-1%1%3%3%1%51%0%0781046.IB 150 28%-23%-13%-10%-1%0%3%7%5%41%0%012100296.IB 182 15%-12%-2%-9%0%0%1%6%5%48%39%012280878.IB 26 34%-29%-8%-21%-2%0%4%9%6%49%1%1282112.IB 36 32%-19%-3%-14%0%1%29%65%49%42%0%102281437.IB 650 7%-6%-2%-3%0%-1%1%2%2%66%86%041554056.IB 258 6%-3%-1%-2%0%0%0%4%3%60%84%0781206.IB 526 4%-3%-1%-1%0%-1%0%1%1%69%90%012281218.IB 660 10%-7%-3%-4%0%-1%2%4%3%61%64%041451024.IB 196 29%-9%-1%-7%0%-1%6%29%22%39%6%122121.SH 65 27%-11%-6%-5%0%0%1%16%13%49%0%0781207.IB 119 17%-14%-7%-7%-1%-1%1%7%3%75%30%0581065.IB 146 30%-16%-10%-6%-1%-7%1%8%3%69%0%1081396.IB 322 11%-8%-4%-4%0%0%1%3%2%70%45%112025.SZ 64 17%-11%-3%-6%0%0%3%11%8%58%36%1181038.IB 1005 9%-7%-4%-3%-1%0%0%2%1%75%35%0681135.IB 200 25%-22%-7%-15%0%-2%3%5%2%68%21%0781089.IB 147 12%-16%-9%-7%0%0%0%3%2%72%54%1081147.IB 29 29%-24%-18%-5%0%-1%2%5%4%64%33%05101520253035()2019 2020 2021|20 3 3.1 800 5 200 2019 10%29 2019 Wind 2022 3 2022 6 2022 9 2019 50%30 2019 2022 3 2022 6 2022 9-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%020040060080010001200()2019-25-20-15-10-5051015200%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%(pct)2019|21 51%40%68%30 31 2021 Wind=+3.2 3 0.10.5 2019 32 2019 Wind 2022 3 2022 6 2022 9 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%02004006008001000()2022.6 2022.6 9.37-11.85 2.54 0.44 2.03 0.46 6.82 5.08 2.55 0.46 1.93 0.57 2.35-3.04 1.38-0.07 1.37 0.04 2.23 0.84 1.59-0.23 1.52-0.23 1.10 0.29 1.32 0.04 1.24 0.03 0.93 0.24 1.11 0.21 0.99 0.24 0.85 0.24 1.69 0.15 1.26 0.26 0.70-1.17 1.42-0.63 1.00-0.31 0.67 0.20 1.11 0.11 0.90 0.07 0.65 0.40 1.11 0.17 0.85 0.10 0.54 0.07 0.83 0.14 0.82 0.14 0.54 0.15 1.02 0.35 0.75 0.19 0.51 0.14 0.87 0.19 0.65 0.15 0.46 0.38 1.23 0.69 0.84 0.59 0.43 0.04 0.82 0.03 0.63 0.04 0.32 0.08 1.24 0.52 0.92 0.40 0.29 0.01 0.89 0.14 0.78 0.18 0.24 0.04 1.45 0.18 1.05-0.07 0.21 0.07 0.52-0.07 0.46 0.05 0.18 0.01 0.84-0.13 0.75-0.16 0.06-0.04 0.43 0.15 0.41 0.16|22 2019 EBITDA 33 EBITDA Wind 3.3 3 5 6 10 34 3 Wind 2023 2 13 50%-20-15-10-50510024681012141618202021EBITDA 2019 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 10 5 1 15 10 5 5 26 20 5 10 10 10 10 5 10 10 19 5 190 10 5 5 7 10 25 12 10 17 5 14 5 3 8 13 3 2 10 3 9 3 8 187 30 15 10 39 0 55 10 15 174 3 13 26 3 9 4 5 5 23 5 6 10 10 10 10 142 30 10 20 20 30 30 140 10 10 10 15 11 5 5 8 5 7 10 12 10 117 30 2 50 20 102 3 3 5 5 5 2 6 10 5 5 10 5 8 3 8 3 86 8 25 15 20 5 73 15 10 10 20 7 8 70 15 8 15 15 5 58 20 10 20 8 58 10 37 10 57 10 10 10 12 10 52 4 4 10 2 2 4 1 6 6 3 6 4 52 5 26 10 10 51 6 12 5 12 9 44 21 10 10 41 10 20 10 40 30 30 5 10 5 5 5 30 5 5 8 3 5 26 10 15 25 18 18 7 3 5 15 10 10 6 4 10 10 10 7 7 6 6|23 4 4.1 2021 2022 35 5 3%36 Wind Wind 2022 1%5%2023 37 2022 1%38 2022 5%Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%05001000150020002500200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021()02004006008001000120001000020000300004000050000600007000080000200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022.1-11()()-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%051015202530354045()-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0(TEU)|24 39 Wind 2022 2%11 2022 10%44.96 40 2022 2%41 2022 10%Wind Wind 2021 5%2022 1%20%0500001000001500002000002500002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%10.010.210.410.610.811.011.211.411.611.82018 2019 2020 2021 2022()0%2%4%6%8%10%12%051015202530354045502018 2019 2020 2021 2022()|25 42 2022 1%43 2022 20%Wind Wind 2022 2023,4.2 2020 2020 12001300 2020 AAA 2016 80%10 80%70bp 20%70bp 20%135bp 2020 2021 262 44 45 2022 Wind Wind-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%4.24.44.64.85.05.25.45.62018 2019 2020 2021 2022()-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01000200030004000500060007000800090002018 2019 2020 2021 2022()020040060080010001200()AAA AA+AA-300-200-1000100200300400()|26 2 2018 46 47 2018 Wind Wind 2023 1 31 4.3 AA AA+2 2 AA 30bp 2016 8 2018 6 2021 1 3 3 2016 8 2018 6 2020 11 48 2 AA 49 2 AA Wind 2023 2 13 Wind 2023 2 13 0246810()01234567892010/012010/102011/082012/062013/042014/022014/122015/102016/072017/052018/032019/012019/112020/092021/072022/04(%)-500501001502000501001502002503002016/012016/052016/082016/122017/042017/082017/122018/032018/072018/112019/032019/062019/102020/022020/062020/092021/012021/052021/082021/122022/042022/082022/12(bp)(bp)2 AA-40-200204060800501001502002502016/012016/052016/082016/122017/042017/082017/122018/032018/072018/112019/032019/062019/102020/022020/062020/092021/012021/052021/082021/122022/042022/082022/12(bp)(bp)2 AA|27 2008 2017 10 2018 6 2018 11 2019 5 2019 12 2021 1 10.2 50 2016 Wind 2023 2 13 2020 10 2022 51 2016 Wind 2023 2 13 010020030040050060070080090010002016/012016/032016/042016/062016/072016/092016/112016/122017/022017/042017/052017/072017/092017/102017/122018/022018/032018/052018/062018/082018/102018/112019/012019/032019/042019/062019/082019/092019/112020/012020/022020/042020/062020/072020/092020/102020/122021/022021/032021/052021/072021/082021/102021/112022/012022/032022/042022/062022/082022/092022/112023/01(bp)0501001502002503003504004505002016/012016/032016/042016/062016/072016/092016/112016/122017/022017/042017/052017/072017/092017/102017/122018/022018/032018/052018/062018/082018/102018/112019/012019/032019/042019/062019/082019/092019/112020/012020/022020/042020/062020/072020/092020/102020/122021/022021/032021/052021/072021/082021/102021/112022/012022/032022/042022/062022/082022/092022/112023/01(bp)|28 2020 52 2016 Wind 2023 2 13 4.4 50bp 70bp 100bp 100bp 53 Wind 2023 2 13 0501001502002503003502016/012016/032016/042016/062016/072016/092016/112016/122017/022017/042017/052017/072017/092017/102017/122018/022018/032018/052018/062018/082018/102018/112019/012019/032019/042019/062019/082019/092019/112020/012020/022020/042020/062020/072020/092020/102020/122021/022021/032021/052021/072021/082021/102021/112022/012022/032022/042022/062022/082022/092022/112023/01(bp)2022Q3 2022Q3 102 1.64 35 30%3 9 14-9 63 2.29 61 92%17 30 29-17 22 2.67 45 37%4 6 17-3 67 2.45 67 69%30 22-4 52 2.06 49 49%11 14 21-8 57 1.44 49 37%9 18 21-14 63 0.74 46 12%0 7 14-11 130 1.08 67 84%19 22 33-8 24 2.54 63 34%12 20-8 25 2.60 64 73%19 23-13 10 2.71 52 31%-9 30 0.73 48 49%1 7 13-9 35 1.09 41 35%-1 10 13-17 10 0.27 98 3.04 63 71%27 14 22-12 30 1.54 86 14%1 33 39-22 130 1.02 54 35%8 14 21-20 134 0.91 133 52%35 56 70-20 40 1.39 54 48%-2 10 15-19 90 1.55 138 45%32 64 65-28 65 1.04 68 51%9 30 36-9 51 1.22 114 62%29 42 54-7 67 1.35 63 15%2 18 17-19 196 1.16 164 57%34 52 62-16 41 1.18 96 10%-10 42 44-23 184 1.54 167 87%-18 66 66-9 43 1.63 66 79%16 21 25-14 196 0.94 345 85%-58 64 101-17 15 0.68 176 81%122 120-9 10 0.19|29 54 bp Wind 2023 2 13/46 30 36 2 34 70 48 50 72 8 79 5 53 7 45 15 58 31 51 10 75 18 45 10 49 42 64 6 48 21 50 30 52 23 45 30 47 10 59 45 54 22 51 43 116 20 44 6 81 18 64 25 52 10 47 30 41 35 81 10 54 25 39 10 47 27 62 8 82 28 76 5 84 20 97 5 56 50 48 50 67 30 110 71 111 43 178 20 63 10 54 30 91 6 111 15 127 47 167 22 55 40 61 20 75 5 79 22 85 14 153 15 56 10 56 47 84 10 145 46 149 10 167 111 163 29 87 5 93 26 103 10 125 30 136 25 170 119 201 10 56 10 55 15 67 11 75 7 264 65 270 42 355 56 467 23 107 10 176 5 477 10|30 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%1%

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