20230426-国海证券-策略专题研究报告_大安全资产_时代的主线_35页_1mb.pdf
2023 04 26 S0350521080003 S0350121080050 Table_Title*2023-04-23 2013 TMT*2023-04-22*2023-04-16 TMT*2023-04-09*2023-03-30 2018 2019 2021 50 50 50 2018 50 2022 50-0.0803-0.02850.02330.07500.12680.178522/4 22/5 22/6 22/7 22/8 22/1022/1122/12 23/1 23/2 23/3 23/4 300 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.8 1.3.12 2.15 2.1“”.15 2.2.16 2.3“”.22 3.25 3.1 50.25 3.2 50.28 4.31 3 1.7 2 2018 GDP.7 3.10 4 2019 2021“.11 5 2022.13 6 2021 2022.13 7.16 8.16 9.18 10 X.19 11.20 12.21 13.22 14 50 50.26 15 50.27 16 50 PE.27 17 50.27 18 50.28 19 50 ROE.28 20 50 50.28 21 2018.30 22 3.30 23 2021 2027 GPU 33%.30 24 2019 2025 AI 56%.31 25 2022 50%.31 1 2018.6 2 2018.7 3 2018.8 4 2019.10 5.11 6“.14 7.14 8 2022.17 9 2022.18 10 2022.19 11 2022.20 12 2022.21 13.22 14.23 15.23 16.24 17.24 18.25 4 19 50.32 5 1 2016 1 8 2018“”1.1 2018 2017 2017 12“”2018 3700 2018 2018 2010 2017 2018 2018+2018 6 2018 2016 2017 2 1 2018 8 1 2018 1 22 4 3 2 14 109.95%2 27 48.64%-106.09%17.14%-80.97%3 9 25%10%3 22 500-600 3 23 4 2 7 128 4 4 1333 500 25%500 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4 100 2021 7 100 2021 9 2021 11 2021 12 2021 2022 2022 7 7/2022-10-16 2022-12-10 3 5 8 2022-12-13 2022-12-14 2022-12-19 15 2023-1-11 2023-1-13 2025 1500 30%2035 2023-2-13 2023 2 2.1 2022 2020 9%2021 2022 1867 2021 TMT TMT/16 7 2021 2022 2.2 8 UNCTAD 2021 17 5 2022 2028.08 2021 79%66%2022 17430.80 2021 78%58%55%8 2022 11455.18 584.9 10870.28 24744.41 1467.85 23276.56 7317.98 76.2 7241.78 1675.72 61.59 1614.13 9397.03 163.17 9233.86 16951.37 74.84 16876.53 30642 832.14 29809.86 7041.33 87.9 6953.43 900.89 291.31 609.58 6056.74 676.65 5380.09 26360.66 1596.16 24764.5 2928.9 81.98 2846.92 2493.61 56.31 2437.30 1794.24 395.10 1399.15 4135.27 106.31 4028.96 2157.10 126.45 2030.65 1365922.1 349032.27 1016889.83 673095.45 466878.78 206216.67 102329.44 26787.86 75541.58 624926.89 182745.69 442181.2 6289.45 4039.1 2250.35 27051.03 21577.8 5473.23 78284.46 53490.93 24793.53(LED)37611.14 23853.44 13757.7 3052.85 1827.4 1225.45 19365.38 10336.91 9028.47 18 9 Trademap 2021 5 2022 108.29 X 2022 62.16 6.54 5.67 2021 X 83%78%69%68%49%5 2022 103.63 96.94 2022 13.59 19.84 59.42 13.73 2021 73%9 2022 1844.04 8245.06-6401.01 5145.25 8014.47-2869.21 5640.89 4986.42 654.47 1493.09 90.19 1402.9 3681.16 2710.01 971.15 7163.04 947.15 6215.89 436.16 35.16 401 X 4956.12 4389.01 567.11 90.23 9.04 81.19 7755.39 1813.32 5942.07 1731.94 358.62 1373.32 4,409 674.07 3735 3,341 1982.39 1359 5,540 292.04 5248 2,014 30.03 1984 19 10 X Trademap 2021 5 2022 68.62 2022 14.32 2022 126.91 2021 86%5 2022 478.11 147.19 2021 58%61%10 2022 8979.18 2117.29 6861.89 905.4 538.04 367.36 256.04 70.12 185.92 191.39 19.38 172.01 512.27 407.19 105.08 3318.63 424.96 2893.67 1319.57 147.55 1172.02 118.83 31.97 86.86 70.92 37.15 33.77 7598.59 2403.77 5194.83 5065.04 388.18 4676.87 1865.54 273.36 1592.19 1229.88 14.52 1215.36 68.77 56.67 12.11 5770.10 3471.03 2299.07 9970.45 1120.01 8850.44 20450.22 4920.90 15529.31 11828.96 842.14 10986.81 12090.71 6316.55 5774.15 20 11247.61 6876.05 4371.55 1518.88 86.43 1432.45 1855.72 802.18 1053.54 5807.36 1646.99 4160.38 4621.17 2318.00 2303.17 6834.01 3276.27 3557.74 11 Trademap 2021 5 2022 444.53 15t 2022 129.08 2.33 2021 15t 57%2022 37.88 2021 62%11 2022 10.28 3.42 6.86 18.06 0.56 17.5 6.16 1.96 4.2 2t 14.85 0.89 13.96 15t 14748.82 1841.08 12907.74 1097.4 864.41 232.99 62.38 17.44 44.94 1917.32 282.68 1634.64 743.68 2.64 741.04 376.66 101.22 275.44 2044.02 1571.69 472.33 5713.51 1925.57 3787.94 21 12 Trademap 2021 2022 204.52 45.69 2021 61%66%2022 117.55 2021 58%157.56 9.29 2021 44%10%12 2022 946.77 429.58 517.19 438.7 192.24 246.46 2724.69 382.01 2342.68 13589.42 9281.87 4307.55 5268.41 699.85 4568.56 438.11 103.64 334.47 7431.77 3024.59 4407.18 26653.32 6201.62 20451.7 125.29 109.19 16.1 438.7 192.24 246.46 29629.03 17874.28 11754.75 39327.43 1712.68 37614.75 46580.22 186.7 46393.52 5132.42 1847.88 3284.54 21000.94 1191.3 19809.64 107391.3 21.61 107369.69 5562.36 265.68 5296.68 1051.09 122.27 928.82 20350.8 4594.93 15755.87 22 13 Trademap 2021 2.3“”0-1 50%2022 50%10%CMP 20%30%2020 50%PVD/CVD 20%5%2021 CPU/GPU 5%FPGA 2020 AP 2021 2020 20%13 20.00%1-5%CMP 10.00%1-5%8.00%1%7.00%Gauge 50%23 2.00%40.00%2.00%30.00%0.00%8 20-30%16.00%20-30%25.00%10%6 50%10%CMP 10%10%510%SOI 5.00%510%5%15%12 5%2020 2021 Q1 2022 14 40.00%10.00%30.00%CPU/GPU 5.00%MCU 25.00%5.00%24.00%5.00%20.00%4.00%20.00%3.00%20.00%1.00%AP 18.00%IGBT 25%FPGA 20%30.00%10.00%Wind FPGA MCU 2020 2021 2021 50%(EDA)(CAD)PLC 20%2020 2021 20%50%2021 20%IaaS 30%50%15 70.00%3-7%50.00%DRAM&NAND-flash 5.0%30.00%8-10%PLC 27.00%13-15%(CAD 20.00%40.00%(EDA)10.00%(IaaS)45.00%PLC 8.00%65.00%2020 2021 24 DSA MRI 2021 CT PET-CT MRI 20%DSA 10%50%20 16 DR 90.00%68.00%75.00%58.00%55.00%55.00%55.00%48.00%50.00%46.00%35.00%39.00%25.00%35.00%CT 20.00%32.00%MRI 13.00%30.00%PET-CT 12.00%30.00%9.00%30.00%5.70%27.00%5.00%20.00%DSA 3.00%20.00%IVD 50.00%13.00%PCOT 40.00%12.00%40.00%10.00%40.00%10.00%30.00%5.00%30.00%5.00%30.00%5.00%30.00%5.00%90.00%4.00%79.00%5.00%77.00%20.00%75.00%MedTrend Wind 2021 2021 20%5%50%20%2018 RV 50%17 22.22%0.42%8.57%0.24%5.56%0.00%25 4.42%10.43%3.85%82.00%3.80%65.00%3.74%17.00%1.60%6.00%1.59%70%X 1.49%50.00%1.32%35.00%1.19%32.80%0.99%RV 2030%GVCC 2018 2021 2021 50%POE 20%20 50%N 20%50%18 66 65.00%12.00%EVA 60.00%POE 0.00%46.89%61.00%37.00%50.00%30.00%4050%30.00%N 20.00%20.00%31.00%20.00%OLED OLED 33.50%2021 3 50%20%3 2018 50“”“50”3.1 50 50 50 2023 4 18 50 TMT50 50 50 26 50 TMT50 50 50 50 2023 4 18 50 64 50 TMT50 37 33 28 50 17 2019 50 ROE 2019 2021 50 50 2019 2021 50 50 TMT50 ROE 50 ROE 50 ROE 50 2019 2021 50 13%50 50 14 50 50 Wind 2023 4 18 27 15 50 Wind 2023 4 18 16 50 PE 17 50 Wind 2023 4 18 Wind wind 28 18 50 19 50 ROE Wind wind Wind wind 20 50 50 Wind 3.2 50 2018 50 2018 1 9 2019 1 2021 7 2022 3 11 2018 3 9 2018 3 1 9 6 A A 18.4%18.9%50 9.9%2018 3 1 9 6 139.6%63.7%29 2019 1 2021 7 5G IC 2019 1 2021 7 5G A A 72.4%300 180%62%172%110%50 304.2%5G IC 100%2022 3 10 2022 3 7 10 31 A 15.9%300 17.6%22%50 5.4%ChatGPT AI 1 30 3 ChatGPT 4 4 10 2022 10 7 3 31 23 2021 60 2.67 2035 60 4 30%2020 2020 2021 43.3%29.1%2-3 AI 30 21 2018 Wind 2023 4 17)22 3 Wind 23 2021 2027 GPU 33%31 24 2019 2025 AI 56%25 2022 50%4 1 2 3 4 32 5 6 7 50 50 19 50 50%2023E)2023E PE(TTM)PB(LF)002368.SZ IT 67.1 290.1 5.2 38.4 75.5 6.5 600536.SH IT 13.7 440.0 3.9 105.7 310.3 21.0 688041.SH 99.7 1,919.9 14.1 75.2 232.2 10.9 688047.SH 83.2 610.0 2.4 364.7-16.1 002049.SZ-13.4 962.6 36.0 37.0 36.9 10.9 002371.SZ 46.0 1,705.2 31.1 32.0 73.9 8.8 603690.SH 18.2 142.1 5.1 81.1 50.9 3.2 688012.SH 94.8 1,135.0 14.3 21.9 100.7 7.6 688037.SH 85.4 262.2 2.5 25.3 136.1 12.7 688072.SH-U 106.7 548.9 4.6 24.1 153.8 15.3 688120.SH 64.0 391.4 6.9 33.3 76.2 8.2 300661.SZ-2.9 576.5 11.8 23.4 59.9 18.3 300567.SZ 122.4 285.1 3.7 37.1 185.7 9.1 600206.SH 20.8 129.0 6.4 58.7 45.8 3.6 603290.SH-14.8 467.2 11.4 39.0 58.6 8.3 003026.SZ 5.6 50.5-122.6 6.9 003031.SZ 23.0 265.5 2.3 57.2 166.6 19.7 688385.SH-4.5 414.3 15.1 39.8 50.6 12.0 600893.SH 2.8 1,156.6 16.1 26.8 91.4 3.0 688152.SH 22.3 103.7 1.6 27.0 86.6 8.4 000977.SZ 85.7 611.5 27.2 30.5 28.1 3.6 603019.SH 96.7 701.0 20.0 29.6 42.1 3.8 688337.SH 1.7 119.5 1.8 89.2 130.3 4.7 600055.SH 25.4 170.9-103.8 3.8 002472.SZ-0.9 215.2 8.1 38.4 36.5 2.9 301269.SZ 41.0 670.0 1.8 32.6 393.3 15.1 688083.SH 16.1 184.7 1.8 2571.4-7.2 688111.SH 61.5 2,036.7 16.0 43.3 176.4 22.6 000859.SZ 6.8 50.4-22.2 1.8 600309.SH 5.0 3,081.0 205.9 26.9 20.5 3.8 603650.SH 33.2 237.0 4.6 52.6 82.1 8.2 300161.SZ 76.3 79.0 3.4 31.0-5.1 688305.SH 6.6 86.4 1.2 101.5 145.6 8.5 688308.SH-2.4 82.2 3.4 40.1 34.3 3.4 688622.SH 21.7 27.0 0.64 210.7-5.2 300760.SZ-0.9 3,813.2 97.4 21.7 40.2 12.6 33 688016.SH 0.8 135.0 4.8 35.9 38.4 8.0 688029.SH 3.0 156.7 4.6 39.4 48.4 5.0 688161.SH 15.5 237.4 8.1 49.5 44.3 5.0 688271.SH-8.9 1,297.6 22.5 37.5 81.3 7.6 688617.SH 13.7 233.1 4.7 31.2 65.0 13.2 688677.SH-6.2 92.2 2.4 33.6 50.5 7.6 002747.SZ 20.1 224.9 1.8 46.8 146.5 8.5 688017.SH 36.0 218.1 2.6 65.9 139.5 11.5 300633.SZ-2.4 235.7 4.9 31.5 61.9 8.4 002046.SZ 8.3 65.1 3.1 31.7 27.2 2.0 300124.SZ-2.6 1,728.3 54.1 26.5 42.1 9.1 688147.SH 113.0 224.6 1.5 148.3 403.7 12.3 688050.SH-13.0 210.5 3.5 48.7 91.0 11.3 688114.SH-16.0 382.2 6.0-70.2 19.2 4.1 Wind 2023 4 18 1 4 4 17 wind 11 5 2010-2014 2014-2021 5,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%R3/
