深度报告-20230613-华创证券-长高电新-002452.SZ-深度研究报告_摆脱历史包袱_GIS与EPC共驱成长_23页_1mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 06 13 002452 GIS EPC 9.5 6.72 2011 GIS 2015 2016 2022 12.2 19.6%0.58 76.9%3 9%24 14 3800 22 23 80%1.2.GIS 22 550kVGIS 3.C4&EPC 23-25 18.5/22.6/27.0 2.6/3.1/3.8 EPS 0.41/0.50/0.61 23 23x 9.5 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()1,223 1,849 2,260 2,704(%)-19.6%51.2%22.2%19.7%()58 257 311 380(%)-76.9%343.1%20.8%22.4%()0.09 0.41 0.50 0.61()75 17 14 11()2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 2023 6 9 S0360522080001()62,033.21()51,188.96()41.69()34.40(%)33.83()3.42 12/9.94/6.14(12)-17%7%32%57%22/06 22/08 22/11 23/01 23/03 23/062022-06-102023-06-09 300 002452 2009 1210 3 9%24 14 3800 22 23 C4 GIS 550kv 110kv 0.8 EPC EPC 23-25 18.5/22.6/27.0 2.6/3.1/3.8 EPS 0.41/0.50/0.61 23 23x 9.5 002452 2009 1210 3.5.5.6.7:.10.10 1.10 2 23.11.12 GIS.12.13.14&.15.15.16.18.18.18.19 002452 2009 1210 4 1.5 2.6 3.7 4 2023.7 5 2022.8 6.8 7.8 8.8 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.10 14 GDP.10 15“”.10 16.11 17.11 18.11 19.12 20.12 21.12 22 GIS.13 23.13 24.13 25.14 26.15 27.15 28.16 29.16 30.16 31 80MW.17 32.18 33 2023 6 9.19 002452 2009 1210 5 1998 2010 2011 GIS 2015 2016 2017 KEMA 2019 80MW 18 1 DS GIS(CB)002452 2009 1210 6 2 KV)/V 12-1100 GIS HGIS GIS 40.5126 40.5-550 12-550 C4-2023 13.59%5.00%4.71%2.32%002452 2009 1210 7 3 13.59%1941 9 1965 2006 2012 5 2012 5 5.00%1967 7 1988 7 2006 2019 10 4.71%1966 12 1987 7 2009-2015 2.32%1980 2 2003 2006 2012 5 2012 5 IFIND 18 6 9.66%IPO 4 2023 2022 91.03%30%002452 2009 1210 8 5 2022 6 IFIND IFIND 22 2022 12.2 19.6%2022 1 2021 1.80%4480.41 2 2022 7 8 IFIND IFIND 30%2022 31.29%2019-2021 8.2%12.8%12.4%2018 2022 2022 35.38%21 2022 6.7 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%0501001502002503002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy 002452 2009 1210 9 9 10 IFIND IFIND 11 12 IFIND IFIND 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A(100)01002003004005006007008009002015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 002452 2009 1210 10:1 2022 2022 8.6 10.4%1.2%4.4%13.8%2022 21 2022 13 14 GDP IFIND IFIND 6700 2.4 9%15 2020 2020 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0.0010,000.0020,000.0030,000.0040,000.0050,000.0060,000.0070,000.0080,000.0090,000.00100,000.00200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 YOY0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,000200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 YOY0500010000150002000025000“十三五”期间“十四五”期间（规划）002452 2009 1210 11 2 23 2022 8 500 2020 20 5,530 76.2%2022 7208 30.34%2022 16 17 IFIND IFIND 2023 24 14 3 3.4 3800 2022 10 3 10 600-800 2023 18-20%0%20%40%60%80%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000(YOY-20%0%20%40%60%80%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000 YOY05101520253035402021 2022 002452 2009 1210 12 2022 1-4 16%4 20%22 3.61 19 20 IFIND GIS GIS 2011 2019 2020 GIS 2.45 6.09 66.9%148.4%GIS 21 IFIND GIS 2017 220kv 2018 1.23 2022 550kvGIS,17%,16%,16%,15%,10%,10%,5%,4%,7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0501001502002503003504004505002018 2019 2020 2021 2022-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%(100)01002003004005006007002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 002452 2009 1210 13 22 GIS GIS 2011 2015 220kV GIS KEMA 2016 GIS IEC KEMA 2017 GIS126kV 252kV 252kVGIS 2022 GIS 550kVGIS 22 2.0 16%1.4 7.6%3.4 5.2%2021 1 2021-2023 22 3 22 8()22 12kV C4F7N 2000 C4 23 24 IFIND IFIND 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022营收 利润 净利率-5%0%5%10%15%20%(20)0204060801001201401601802018 2019 2020 2021 2022营收 利润 净利率 002452 2009 1210 14 2022 9.86 2023 5 3.83 110kv 22 0.81 220KV GIS LCC 300 80%25 2023 5 5 21008.37 2023 3 7 17361.29 2022 12 27 12362.29 2022 11 25 5885.01 10kV 2022 11 4 13275.5 2022 8 31 12264.19 2022 7 12 15719.92 2022 5 24 21357.32 2022 3 23 17700.61 22 23 5 002452 2009 1210 15&2015 80MWp(50MWp)40MWp 26 1 45MW EPC 2 48MW EPC 3 50MW 4 6.6MW 5 80MW 6 40MWp 7 40MWp 8 6.3MWp 9 16MWp 10 3MWp 11 50MWp 12 13 14 2016 2021+27 2022 1 25/2021 12 8/100MWp 2021 12 4/002452 2009 1210 16 18 22 2018 531 EPC EPC 18 1.67 59%2022 8,729.8 47.7%3,485.9 2021 1.11 0.91 0.19 0.23 28 IFIND 2016 3 100%16 2.45 2018 1.8 2.54 2022 0.19 0.23 2022 0.26 2023 29 30-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%-100.000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-300-200-10001002003004002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0501001502002503003502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 002452 2009 1210 17 2022 2022 0.51 2021 80MW 70%0.81 0.33 31 80MW 2019 7 80MW EPC 2020 5 70%30%69200 8650/2020 9 25 3.2MW 2020 12 2021 3 80MW 70%6.8 3780 002452 2009 1210 18 GIS GIS 3 23-25 16.7/20.2/24.2 35.0%/35.0%/35.0%23-25 EPC 23-25 1.5/2.0/2.6 13.0%/13.0%/13.0%EPC 23-25 18.5/22.6/27.0 33.2%/33.0%/32.9%32 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1521 1223 1849 2260 2704 yoy-19.6%51.2%22.2%19.7%1012 840 1236 1514 1814 33.5%31.3%33.2%33.0%32.9%1315 1113 1667 2024 2416 850 747 1083 1315 1571 35.4%32.9%35%35%35%167 82 153 206 258 135 76 133 179 224 18.9%8.4%13.0%13.0%13.0%39 27 30 30 30 27 18 20 20 20 30.6%35.2%35.0%35.0%35.0%23-25 18.5/22.6/27.0 2.6/3.2/3.9 EPS 0.41/0.50/0.61 23 PE 23.5x 23 23x 9.5 002452 2009 1210 19 33 2023 6 9 EPS PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 600312.SH 154.6 11.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 72.9 30.5 20.1 15.7 002028.SZ 360.0 46.7 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.2 29.5 22.3 17.7 14.4 603050.SH 35.0 15.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.9 21.8 17.8 12.6 8.1 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 41.4 23.5 16.8 12.7 002452.SZ 41.7 6.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 71.8 16.2 12.9 10.6 IFIND IFIND C4 002452 2009 1210 20 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 705 698 660 666 1,223 1,849 2,260 2,704 26 55 64 76 840 1,236 1,514 1,814 952 1,206 1,468 1,809 14 18 22 26 18 59 56 62 73 102 120 138 421 554 644 781 88 105 127 149 22 56 85 122 88 92 104 119 186 308 328 371-4-8 1 3 2,329 2,937 3,305 3,887-60-4-5-6 66 66 66 66-23-2-2-2 63 63 63 63-1 0 0 0 356 373 339 311-1 3 3 3 144 166 193 191 32 4 0 0 112 119 129 126 71 305 368 450 185 186 188 189 1 1 1 1 926 974 979 946 6 6 6 6 3,255 3,911 4,284 4,833 66 300 363 445 44 33 13 3 17 45 54 67 142 247 227 272 49 255 308 378 487 618 681 816-9-3-2-2 0 0 0 0 58 257 311 380 42 64 78 94 NOPLAT 46 248 309 380 35 35 35 35 EPS()0.09 0.41 0.50 0.61 3 3 3 3 67 135 163 198 820 1,135 1,201 1,421 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 126 224 279 293 0 0 0 0-19.6%51.2%22.2%19.7%206 206 206 206 EBIT-79.0%371.6%24.8%23.1%332 430 485 499-76.9%343.1%20.8%22.4%1,152 1,565 1,686 1,920 2,099 2,344 2,600 2,914 31.3%33.2%33.0%32.9%4 2-1-1 4.0%13.8%13.6%14.0%2,103 2,346 2,599 2,912 ROE 2.8%11.0%12.0%13.1%3,255 3,911 4,284 4,833 ROIC 3.2%12.3%13.7%15.0%35.4%40.0%39.3%39.7%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 18.0%19.9%19.3%17.4%227 9 39 84 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.7 88 299 365 434 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2-69-133-90-137 7-322-266-357 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6-27 237 44 180 273 210 213 218 228-71-14-36 202 161 154 149-197-102-59-17 166 142 142 141-129-100-59-19()-11 0 0 0 0.09 0.41 0.50 0.61-57-2 0 2 0.37 0.02 0.06 0.14-145 87-18-62 3.38 3.78 4.19 4.70-80 88 35 4-50-55-71-86 P/E 75 17 14 11 4 4 4 4 P/B 2 2 2 2-19 50 14 16 EV/EBITDA 43 13 11 9 002452 2009 1210 21/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 002452 2009 1210 22 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 002452 2009 1210 23 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
