深度报告-20230216-国盛证券-机械设备行业深度_寻找中国的_达芬奇_国产手术机器人迎来产业化元年_33页_2mb.pdf
|2023 02 16 Frost&Sullivan 2020 83.2 600 2005 2018&+1395+65%2020 RAS 0.5%13.3%2021-2022 RAS 2023 10 35 282 46 470 10 10 2023 1 2 2022 C X 2023 4 3 3 13.46%15.40%7.18%-300 S0680522070009 1 2022-11-15 2 2022-10-25 3 2022-08-04-32%-16%0%16%2022-02 2022-06 2022-10 2023-02 300 2023 02 16 P.2.4 1.1.4 1.2.11 1.3.14&.17 2.1.17 2.2.21 2023.25 3.1.25 3.2.28 3.3.29.32 1.4 2.5 3 2020.5 4.5 5 2020.6 6 2020.6 7 MP1000.7 8.7 9.7 10.8 11.8 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.10 16.10 17.10 18 MIS RAS.11 19.12 20.12 21.13 22.13 23.13 24 1.14 25 6.14 26.14 27 2018-2020.16 28 5.17 29.18 2023 02 16 P.3 30.18 31.18 32.19 33 2021.19 34+1395.19 35 2005 65%.20 36 X/Xi 8mm EndoWrist.20 37.21 38.21 39 RAS.22 40 RAS.22 41.23 42.24 43.25 44.26 45 2022 9.26 46 IPO.27 47.27 48.28 49.29 50.29 51 SR 1 0 0 0.30 52.31 53.31 2023 02 16 P.4 1.1 1985 PUMA560 2000 Intuitive Surgical Inc.FDA 2010 5G 1 F r os t&S u l l i v an 2020 83 600 2020 46 55.1%2020 18 21.4%2020 4 5.1%2015-2020 CAGR 22.6%CAGR 35.7%F r os t&S u l l i v an 2 020-2 02 5 C A G R 4 4.3%2023 02 16 P.5 2 3 2020 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan 2020 68.2%75%18.1%10%80%4 0102030405060708090全球 美国 欧盟 中国 2023 02 16 P.6 X CT 5 2020 6 2020 MIS 68.2%15.4%4.9%1.0%0.4%18.1%74.9%10.3%4.9%0.0%0.0%10.0%2023 02 16 P.7 7 MP1000 1%F r os t&S ul l i v a n 2020 12 31 189 RAS 0.5%3727 RAS 13.3%F r os t&S u l l i v an 2026 2000 2020 2020 3.18 2026 23.15 39.2%.8 9 42 58 67 75134189284431655100214442050050010001500200025002015 2017 2019 2021E 2023E 2025E 11.4 1826.8 32.6 38.947.487.5136.7216.1337.2481.1681.101002003004005006007008002015 2017 2019 2021E 2023E 2025E 2023 02 16 P.8 10 TKA 11 2023 02 16 P.9 F r os t&S ul l i v a n 2020 12 31 17 RAS 0.1%1060 7.6%F r os t&S ul l i v an 2026 700 3.32 8 12 13 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan 14 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan 2015 11.3 2020 14.3 8.1%2026 22.9 01002003004005006007008009002015 2017 2019 2021E 2023E 2025E01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900002015 2017 2019 2021E 2023E 2025E 2023 02 16 P.10 Frost&Sullivan 2015 211.3 2020 286.5 8.5%2026 467.3 2026 9456 2023 352.6%2026 0.01%MRI CT Frost&Sullivan 2015 5.7 2020 8.3 6.6%2026 12.1 2026 246501 2020 48.9%2026 9.5%15 Frost&Sullivan 16 17 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%0501001502002503002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%02468101214162015 2017 2019 2021E 2023E 2025E 0.000%0.001%0.002%0.003%0.004%0.005%0.006%0.007%0.008%0.009%0.010%0123456789102015 2017 2019 2021E 2023E 2025E 2023 02 16 P.11 1.2 MIS RAS MIS MIS RIS 18 MIS RAS MIS RAS/“”2023 02 16 P.12 4 6 19 The da Vinci system:technology and surgical analysis 20 Urologic Robotic Surgery RAS 2023 02 16 P.13 21 22 Robot-assisted pyeloplasty and laparoscopicpyeloplasty in children:A comparison of single-port-plus-one and multiportsurgery Robot-assisted pyeloplasty and laparoscopicpyeloplasty in children:A comparison of single-port-plus-one and multiportsurgery 23 Learning Curve of Robotic-Assisted Total Knee Arthroplasty for a High-Volume Surgeon 050100150200250 ml min 024681012 5863687378831 6 1 2023 02 16 P.14 24 1 25 6 Learning Curve of Robotic-Assisted Total Knee Arthroplasty for a High-Volume Surgeon Learning Curve of Robotic-Assisted Total Knee Arthroplasty for a High-Volume Surgeon 1.3 2018 1000 3000 26 2016 12 27 2017 1 25 2016 2017 5 26 2017 2018 2020 4 27 2017 12 010203040506049-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-110%010203040506049-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-110%2023 02 16 P.15 13 2018 2020 2017 12 13 2018 2020 2019 11 10 2021 3 11 2035 2021 12 28 2025 2018-2020 2018 2020 12768 281 12487 225+35.1%2023 02 16 P.16 27 2018-2020 行 政区划 省市 内 窥镜手术 机器人 配置规 划数量（台）配 额占比 华北 北京 12 5.3%天津 7 3.1%河北 9 4.0%山西 6 2.7%内蒙古 5 2.2%东北 辽宁 8 3.6%吉林 5 2.2%黑龙江 7 3.1%华东 上海 13 5.8%江苏 13 5.8%浙江 10 4.4%安徽 9 4.0%福建 8 3.6%江西 5 2.2%山东 13 5.8%中南 河南 9 4.0%湖北 6 2.7%湖南 8 3.6%广东 18 8.0%广西 7 3.1%海南 4 1.8%西南 重庆 5 2.2%四川 9 4.0%贵州 5 2.2%云南 4 1.8%西藏 1 0.4%西北 陕西 8 3.6%甘肃 3 1.3%青海 2 0.9%宁夏 2 0.9%新疆 3 1.3%新疆生产建设兵团 1 0.4%总计 225 100%2023 02 16 P.17&2.1 5 1990 10 2000 FDA 4 2005 286 28 5 3-5 3-5 2000 FDA S Si 2011 3 Xi 2014 2018 X Xi SP Xi X-100-500501001502002503003504004501996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 286 2023 02 16 P.18 29 da Vinci 1999-da Vinci S 2006-da Vinci Si 2009 2011 da Vinci Xi 2014 2018 da Vinci X 2017 da Vinci Xi da Vinci SP 2018 2021 1347 2020 43.91%2001-2021 CAGR 18%6730 2021 159.4 30 31 02004006008001000120014002001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 010002000300040005000600070002001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 02 16 P.19 32 33 2021+50 250 600 3500 80000 190000+2009+1395+73%65%34+1395 020406080100120140160180 4139,61%1199,18%1050,16%342,5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022+1395 2023 02 16 P.20 35 2005 65%X/Xi 8mm EndoWrist 10 12-14 36 X/Xi 8mm EndoWrist monopolar cautery instruments Monopolar curved scissors(Hot shears)10 Permanent cautery hook 10 Permanent cautery spatula 10 bipolar cautery instruments Maryland Maryland bipolar forceps 14 Fenestrated bipolar forceps 14 Curved bipolar dissector 14 Micro bipolar forceps 14 Long bipolar grasper 14 Force bipolar 12-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%65%2023 02 16 P.21 2.2 RAS Frost&Sullivan 2020 RAS 47,379 0.5%RAS 90 13.3%RAS 26.6 Frost&Sullivan 2020 56%44%25%75%37 38 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan RAS RAS RAS RAS 2021 4 6 28 80%2021 8 30 2021 10 23 8000 70%19.8%19.4%18.9%17.5%16.7%17.0%51.2%53.1%53.9%54.3%55.3%57.7%28.9%27.5%27.3%28.3%28.0%25.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6.5%6.5%7.2%7.0%4.8%6.0%42.4%48.3%68.6%74.2%34.4%38.2%51.1%45.2%24.2%18.8%60.8%55.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2023 02 16 P.22 39 RAS 80%2021.4.20 8000 70%2021.10.23 RAS 2022 9 23 40 RAS 3D 40%5000 2000 80%()300%2021-2022 RIO-2021-2022 3 ORTHBOT-300 Robio EX MAXIO V2 2023 02 16 P.23 41 Si 2011 Xi 2018 S 2021 10 2022 1 2022 6 MP1000 2022 12-MAKO RIO 2014 HURWA 2022 1 2022 4 ARTHROBOT 2022 4 2022 4-2016 MAZOR Renaissance 2019 MEDTECH ROSA One 2019 MAZOR Mazor X 2021 ORTHBOT 2021-300 2022 2 2022 8 Perfint Healthcare Robio EX 2014 Perfint Healthcare MAXIO V2-10 2021-2022 2023 2018-2020 2022-2032 35 282 46 470 10 10 1 Frost&Sullivan 2020 948 2021 2022 1042 2032 2465 2 RAS Frost&Sullivan 2020 RAS 0.5%2032 2.4%2020 RAS 13.3%2018-2020 299 240 2032 280 3 2000-3000 2021 2022 1%4 Frost&Sullivan 2023 02 16 P.24 2015 86%2020 75%2022 2023 60%42 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 1042 1147 1259 1381 1512 1651 1797 1949 2111 2282 2465 yoy 10%10%9.8%9.7%9.5%9.2%8.8%8.5%8.3%8.1%8.0%RAS 0.6%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%2.4%RAS 6 8 10 14 18 23 29 35 42 50 59 yoy 28%25%37%31%27%24%22%20%19%18%298 296 295 293 290 288 287 285 283 281 280 210 271 341 471 626 803 1002 1231 1492 1787 2113 51 61 70 130 154 177 199 230 261 295 326 2475 2450 2426 2401 2377 2354 2330 2307 2284 2261 2238 yoy-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%13 15 17 31 37 42 46 53 60 67 73/1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 10 13 16 22 29 37 46 56 68 80 95/14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 11 14 19 25 32 40 49 59 70 83 19 24 30 41 54 69 86 105 127 151 177/150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 3 4 5 7 9 12 15 18 22 27 32 35 43 52 80 101 123 148 177 209 244 282 75%74%73%72%70%68%66%64%62%61%60%46 58 72 111 144 181 224 276 336 400 470 yoy%26.3 23.0 54.3 29.7 26.0 23.6 23.4 21.9 18.9 17.5 Frost&Sullivan 2023 02 16 P.25 2023 3.1 2014 2015 43 2021-2022 Xi/Si Si 2011 2023 Si 2022 4 NMPA 2022 12 FDA CE 2023 02 16 P.26 44 R-ONE Mona Lisa 2023 45 2022 9 IPO 2023 02 16 P.27 50.75%46 IPO 2017 10 2021 6 14 2014 2015 2021 20 47 2017 10 14 2020 4 CPA CFA 20 2020 9 2017 10 2020 9 10 盤 茂企业管理 合伙企 业董事 等。2023 02 16 P.28 2020 12 29 2020 10 MBA 19 1999 2020 GE Healthcare Global MR 1.5T Segment 总经 理。2021 9 3.2/2022 C X 2023 4 3 48 C X 2022 2023 02 16 P.29 49 3.3 S R 100 0 2 022 6 1 00 S R 15 00/SR 2 000 50 2023 02 16 P.30 SR1000 SR100 SR1000 2022 6 8 SR1000 SR1000 100%SR1000 NASA-TLX SR1000 51 SR1000 SR1000 n=49 1 Si n=50 P SR1000 n=49 Si n=50 2 P 3 100%100%-100%100%-57.63 125.91 55.60 87.06 0.719 122.25 90.93 122.56 119.84 0.463 69.55 30.87 61.45 19.70 0.310 126.41 43.98 116.48 54.83 0.075 NASA-TLX 5 1 1 2 1 3 P 0.05 4 FAS PPS 5 SR1000“+”2023 02 16 P.31 1 2 3 52 53 2023 02 16 P.32 5 2023 02 16 P.33,6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
