深度报告-20230622-华创证券-浙数文化-600633.SH-深度研究报告_受益泛休闲游戏高增长23年主业可期_积极拥抱数字经济打开想象空间_27页_2mb.pdf
2009 1210 2023 06 22 600633 23 20.5 15.58 22 33%50%16%+AI 23+TOP5 IDC 1 IDC 2 AI AI 3+IDC AI AI 2023/24/25 8.10/9.20/10.94 65%/14%/19%24/21/18 PE 23 PE 2023 32 PE 259 20.5 IDC ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()5,186 5,340 5,778 6,368(%)69.3%3.0%8.2%10.2%()490 810 920 1,094(%)-5.2%65.4%13.6%18.9%()0.39 0.64 0.73 0.86()40 24 21 18()2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 2023 6 21 010-63214660 S0360521010001()126,573.05()126,573.05()197.20()197.20(%)17.40()7.55 12/17.30/6.03(12)-18%34%85%137%22/06 22/09 22/11 23/01 23/04 23/062022-06-222023-06-21 300 600633 2009 1210 23 1+IDC 2 AI GPT+IDC AI AI 2023/24/25 8.10/9.20/10.94 65%/14%/19%24/21/18 PE 23 PE 2023 32 PE 259 20.5 600633 2009 1210 3.6.6.7.8 23.9 1 23.9 2 23.11 IDC.12 IDC.12 AI.14.17 1.17 2.19.21.23 600633 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3.7 4%.8 5%.8 6%.8 7%.8 8(%).9 9(%).9 10%.9 11%.9 12.10 13.10 14 23 1-3 TOP50.10 15 23 4 TOP50.10 16.11 17.11 18.11 19.12 20.12 21.12 22.13 23%.14 24%.14 25.15 26.15 27.15 28.16 29.16 30“”.17 31.17 32.17 33%.19 600633 2009 1210 5 34 GDP.19 35%.19 36 2023.6.20 37.20 38.21 39.21 40.21 41.22 42.23 600633 2009 1210 6 1992 7 2011 9 29 1 22 2 22 33.24%49.79%22 33.24%22 49.79%22 15.83%IDC 22 1.05%1 2011 ST 2 2013 2016 2017 2018 2019 2023 1 2023 5 AI 1 600633 2009 1210 7 23Q1 47.64%2%2 3,().600633 2009 1210 8 21 2018-2022 2022 69.27%2023 Q1 9.24 11.46%21-22 22 49.79%4%5%2021 72.46%2022 61.39%2023Q1 32.38%22 6.17%23Q1+1.21 1.18 6%7%2021 18.02%2022 26.92%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1营业总收 入 yoy(%)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 2022在线游戏 运营 在线社交 业务信息服务 收入 广告及网 络推广其他0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022在线游戏 运营业 务 信息服务 收入0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1毛利率 净利率 600633 2009 1210 9 2018 2022 5 2023Q1 2.71 435.63%23Q1+1.21 1.18 23 8(%)9(%)2023Q1 16.73 10%11%23 1 23+AI 23 23Q1 15.6%1 23.6%23 3 3 0.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1销售费用 率 管理费用 率 研发费用 率-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%01234562018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1归母净利 润 yoy(%)05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1资产负债 率(%)-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0246810121416182018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1期末现金 余额 yoy(%)600633 2009 1210 10 5.9%4 4.0%4.4%12 13 4 12 1 2023 1-4 TOP50 2 2 1 2+3 14 23 1-3 TOP50 15 23 4 TOP50 3%-2.2%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-200 400 600 800 1,0002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 202304收入（左 轴，亿 元）环比(右轴，%）同比(右轴，%）-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%-50 100 150 200 250Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23收入（左 轴，亿 元）环 比（右轴，%）同 比（右轴，%）600633 2009 1210 11 16 17 2 23 1999 2004 8 2005 12 2013 32 18 1 100 PK 2/3 01020304050602021/6/15 2021/12/15 2022/6/15 2022/12/15 2023/6/15捕鱼大作战 咸鱼之王 蛋仔派对0102030405060702023/1/23 2023/2/23 2023/3/23 2023/4/23 2023/5/23途游斗地 主 欢乐斗地 主 JJ斗地主34%34%83%83%84%80%78%76%85%85%49%50%69%83%91%109%115%106%150%127%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%140.00%160.00%2018H1 2018H2 2019H1 2019H2 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022H2边锋营收 占公司 营收比 重 边锋净利 润占公 司净利 润比重 600633 2009 1210 12 19+1 TOP5 2 20 21 IDC IDC IDC 01020304050602021/6/15 2021/12/15 2022/6/15 2022/12/15 2023/6/15捕 鱼 大作战IOS 游 戏 畅销 排行榜 600633 2009 1210 13 22 1 10000 2500 22 6 7000+75%2 22 3.61 21 3.23 11.96%8692 21 8167 6.43%24:25000m2:6KW:46800KVA+:3000+:A T3+70792m 6KW 138000kVA 7000+A T3+600633 2009 1210 14 20000m 6KW 40000kVA 2500+A T3+IDC 2023 1 2 3 4,PUE AI IDC 23%24%AI 2023 1 18 1 2 G 0.382.362.023.233.61-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%012342018 2019 2020 2021 2022富春云营 业收入 yoy(%)-0.220.040.470.820.87-100%100%300%500%700%900%1100%-1012018 2019 2020 2021 2022富春云净 利润 yoy(%)600633 2009 1210 15 25 26 G+B 27“”600633 2009 1210 16 28 AI 1 AI AIGC 2 AI AI AI 5 25 AIGC“”AI AI 11 14 29 5 25 600633 2009 1210 17 1+2 30 31 5 25 5 25 1 2022 12 32 2019 10()2020 3 600633 2009 1210 18 2020 3 2020 4 2020 7 13 2021 1 20212023 2021 3 2035 2021 11 2022 1 2025 GDP 10%2022 6 2022 8 2022 10 2022 10 2023 2022 11 2025 2022 12 600633 2009 1210 19 2023 2 2522 2025 1 2022 50 10%18-22 CAGR 13%2 22 815 18-22 CAGR 41%2025 1749 22-25 CAGR 29%GDP 33%34 GDP wind 2021-2022 35%2021-2022 1749 2+2016 3 5 18 00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.1801020304050602005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02004006008001000120014001600180020002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy 600633 2009 1210 20 48.20%36 2023.6+37 1+N 1+N 1 N 600633 2009 1210 21 38 39 2022 270 2000+500+40 1+2 22 3+1 2 IDC 2023/24/25 8.10/9.20/10.94 600633 2009 1210 22 65%/14%/19%24/21/18 PE 1 2 23 PE 2023 32 PE 259 20.5 41 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 3.1 25.82 18.07 16.27 14.64 yoy 733%-30%-10%-10%14.4 20.9 28.0 18.2 17.2 24.1 29.0 34.8 yoy 45%34%-35%-5%40%20%20%2.2 4.9 6.7 7.7 8.2 9.7 10.9 12.6 yoy 128%36%15%6%18%13%15%1.2 0.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 yoy-53%173%7%6%1.6 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 yoy 18.16 27.45 35.11 30.59 51.82 53.40 57.78 63.68 yoy 51%28%-13%69%35%15%15%37%45%44%44%44%78%79%77%88%92%85%85%85%40%47%46%51%48%49%49%49%88%85%85%85%85%1%2%5%6%6%6%6%6%67%69%70%72%61%65%67%68%1.9 14.3 10.1 9.1 8.2 3.1 4.4 6.6 2.2 1.4 3.6 4.3 5.2 1.3 2.6 3.7 3.8 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 8.5 10.6 8.4 20.0 19.0 19.3 20.1 600633 2009 1210 23 42 YoY PE PEG 2022 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 27,749 541.9 721.8 859.4 33%19%38 32 1.16 1.69 73,744 2,954.4 3,368.3 3,863.9 14%15%22 19 1.56 1.30 36,200 1,377.2 1,604.5 1,922.1 17%20%23 19 1.37 0.95 37,654 1,460.9 1,641.3 1,916.7 12%17%23 20 1.86 1.17 17,688 348.6 683.7 835.1 96%22%26 21 0.27 0.96 60,188 1,152.5 1,327.7 1,523.3 15%15%45 40 2.98 2.68 14,805 736.4 1,029.6 1,321.8 40%28%14 11 0.36 0.39 27 23 wind 2023/6/21 wind 1.2.3.IDC IDC 4.600633 2009 1210 24 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,167 2,455 3,279 4,493 5,186 5,340 5,778 6,368 0 0 0 0 2,002 1,896 1,933 2,015 321 351 379 427 22 28 29 31 138 99 96 103 1,396 1,068 1,156 1,274 19 28 34 37 393 694 751 828 0 0 0 0 512 641 693 764 803 1,188 1,333 1,316-3 2 3 7 2,448 4,122 5,120 6,377-7-7-7-7 0 0 0 0-77-94-94-94 1,742 1,742 1,742 1,742-224 70 50 50 1,027 1,176 1,289 1,409 67 80 50 50 755 941 1,149 1,339 55 50 50 50 817 790 766 729 672 1,103 1,254 1,492 5,410 5,413 5,416 5,420 7 7 7 7 9,752 10,063 10,362 10,640 2 2 2 2 12,200 14,184 15,483 17,017 677 1,108 1,258 1,496 0 50 100 150 121 166 189 224 0 0 0 0 556 942 1,070 1,272 458 546 561 576 66 132 150 178 0 0 0 0 490 810 920 1,094 330 340 368 405 NOPLAT 554 943 1,073 1,278 98 98 60 60 EPS()0.39 0.64 0.73 0.86 45 45 45 45 463 1,219 1,302 1,428 1,394 2,298 2,435 2,664 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 441 739 1,039 1,330 0 0 0 0 69.3%3.0%8.2%10.2%225 226 226 226 EBIT-9.2%64.6%13.7%19.2%667 965 1,265 1,555-5.2%65.4%13.6%18.9%2,061 3,263 3,700 4,220 9,277 9,986 10,738 11,642 61.4%64.5%66.5%68.4%862 935 1,045 1,155 10.7%17.6%18.5%20.0%10,139 10,921 11,783 12,797 ROE 5.3%8.1%8.6%9.4%12,200 14,184 15,483 17,017 ROIC 20.8%26.7%23.9%22.7%16.9%23.0%23.9%24.8%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 7.0%9.7%12.0%13.7%1,030 1,652 1,191 1,532 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.4 793 1,136 1,279 1,495 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.4 8-10-5-4-123 103 69 39 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 177 88-23 16 19 23 23 23 174 335-129-13 67 95 103 102-133-699-607-511 4 4 6 6-487-500-503-489()124 0 0 0 0.39 0.64 0.73 0.86 231-199-104-22 0.81 1.31 0.94 1.21-608 335 239 194 7.33 7.89 8.48 9.20-358 348 350 341-151-215-245-291 P/E 40 24 21 18 2 2 2 2 P/B 2 2 2 2-100 200 133 142 EV/EBITDA 23 16 14 12 600633 2009 1210 25 2015-2016 2016-2019 2019-2020 TMT 2016/2017 2016 2016 2017 2017 2019 WIND 2019 WIND 2021 2021 2021 600633 2009 1210 26 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 600633 2009 1210 27 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
