20230914_民生证券_个护行业研究报告：润本股份驱蚊赛道国货龙头婴童护理业务未来可期_53页.pdf
*01*2023 9 14*&+2006 2022 2.72 3.90 1.46 19.54%80.03%11.78%31.82%45.59%17.10%/1 15 62.1 19 84.3 CAGR 7.9%2024 120.1 19-24 CAGR 7.3%16 3.9 19 9.0 24 21.7 12-21 CR560%2 08 54.2 19 258.5 CAGR 15.3%2020 27 490.7 22-27 CAGR 9.7%13-22 CR5 43.3%16.3%CR10 53.5%26.2%+1 2-+20-22 78.7%77.7%78.0%3 7 10 56 80%+1YWAZxOrMoNmNsMpMnQtMnMaQcMbRoMpPpNoNlOpPuNkPmNnR7NrQrNNZpNtNwMsRnQ*C O N T E N T S 02 03 01 04 052*01.3*&1 2006-2013 2006 2010 2 2013-2019 2013 2019 3 2019 2019 1.142006 年2010年2019年 pop 2006-2012 2013-2018 2019 2020年2013 年2015年*85.38%85.38%2023 7 7 26.7%52.45%6.23%85.38%1.65%1.25 1.38%JNRY VIII HK Holdings Limited 21.09%52.45%5.61%10.00%1.33%6.23%0.89%0.44%0.27%0.22%0.09%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%2023 7 7*1.36 1995 2005 2006 9 2013 4 2019 6 2013 12 2017 8 2017 8 2020 11 2020 11 1990 2005 2006 8 2017 1 2013 4 2019 6 2013 12 2020 11 2020 11 2015 2 2017 8 2019 3 2018 11 2020 11 2002 7 2006 6 2006 7 2012 2 2012 3 2015 8 2015 9 2016 5 2016 6 2017 4 2017 4 2021 5 2021 6 2022 3*2020 2021 2022 1.69 38.21%2.28 39.14%2.72 31.82%1.44 32.47%2.17 37.24%3.90 45.59%1.26 28.40%1.30 22.50%1.46 17.10%1.47 2020-2022 1 22 31.82%2 22 45.59%22 17.10%*1.58 1 22 60.32%2 22 14.42%3 22 3.31%4 22 21.96%0123456 2020 2021 2022 57%57%60%18%17%14%21%22%22%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 2020-2022 2020-2022*1.59 POP 22 2.79 19.41%46.55%22 1.12 30.58%18.73%20-22 141 0.46 1.57 21-22 3167.57%241.76%2020-2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 20293 23351 27883 65.09%67.38%68.32%2149 1055 855 63.05%62.20%63.94%141 4608 15749 56.23%73.30%71.83%POP 801 1234 1784 67.36%65.73%66.98%7206 8590 11217 54.43%52.47%54.33%1695 1738 2413 46.17%47.69%46.56%*1.510 20-22 226 270 248 22 20-22 500 3 3 7 21-22+133%20-22 500 52%62%75%21-22+10pct+13pct 2122572311110103370501001502002503002020 2021 2022 100 100-500 500 52%62%75%29%19%10%19%19%15%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 500 100-500 100 2020-2022 2020-2022*1.6 11 41%38%10%11%3.69 3 3.44 5 5G 0.90 3 1.00/9.03 9.03 1 41%3.69 2 38%3.44 3 10%0.9 5G 4 11%1*02.12*2.113*24 120 19-24CAGR 7.3%24 120 19-24 CAGR 7.3%1 2 15 62.1 19 84.3 CAGR 7.9%2024 120.1 19-24 CAGR 7.3%2.114 2015-2024E 62.1 67.3 73.6 79.0 84.3 90.7 97.3 104.3 111.9 120.1 8.4%9.3%7.4%6.7%7.5%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%0%2%4%6%8%10%0204060801001201402015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E()yoy(%,)19-24 CAGR 7.3%*CR5 60%CR5 60%2012-2021 CR5 60%21 16%16%13%2.115 2006 1886 50 1994 1982 16%16%13%8%7%4%3%2%31%1989 2021 21*16 3.9 19 9 16-19 CAGR 32.7%24 21.7 19-24 CAGR 19.3%2.1163.9 9.021.705101520252016 2019 2024E 2016-2024E*2.217*25 6554 22-25 CAGR 7.2%2.218 2015-2025E 25 6554 22-25 CAGR 7.2%15-22 3187.6 5318.1 CAGR 7.6%22-25 7.2%CAGR 25 6554.1 3187.6 3390.93739.74226.248505214.55680.25318.15791.66179.36554.16.4%10.3%13.0%14.8%7.5%8.9%-6.4%8.9%6.7%6.1%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%010002000300040005000600070002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy(%,)22-25 CAGR 7.2%15-22 CAGR 7.6%*22 CR5 14.5%22 CR5 14.5%CR5 CR10 18 11.7%/19.6%22 14.5%/21.6%22 4.2%/3.8%/2.7%17 0.3%/0.6%22 1.4%/1.3%2.21915.4%14.9%13.7%12.5%11.9%11.7%12.6%13.7%13.9%14.5%22.8%22.2%21.1%19.9%19.7%19.6%20.0%20.9%21.0%21.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CR5(%)CR10(%)2013-2022 CR5 CR10 2022 17 18 19 20 21 22 3.6%3.6%3.6%3.9%3.9%4.2%1.8%2.1%2.7%3.2%3.5%3.8%1.4%1.7%2.1%2.6%2.8%2.7%1.7%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.9%Olay 2.3%2.3%2.3%2.2%2.0%1.9%2.1%1.9%1.7%1.6%1.5%1.5%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.7%1.6%1.5%1.1%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.6%1.4%0.3%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.4%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.9%1.3%*2.2.120*25 423 22-27CAGR 9.7%08-27 CAGR 12.3%08-19 54.2 258.5 CAGR 15.3%2020 21 300 27 490.7 22-27 CAGR 9.7%21 2015-2021E 2.2.154.261.573.386.1100.6116.9136.4152.9170.7193.0223.1258.5282.2318.3308.7355.2 390.3423.5457.4490.713.47%19.18%17.45%16.79%16.29%16.66%12.06%11.66%13.05%15.59%15.90%9.14%12.79%-2.99%15.06%9.88%8.50%8.00%7.29%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01002003004005006002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E yoy(%,)22-27 CAGR 9.7%08-22 CAGR 13.2%*22 CR5 16.3%22 CR5 16.3%13-22 CR5 43.3%16.3%CR10 53.5%26.2%2020 17-19 9.2%7.8%6.6%2020 17 9.2%22 4.1%17 2.7%/0.7%/2.1%22 3.9%/2.8%/2.5%222.2.153.5%45.5%37.3%33.4%33.6%33.0%31.2%30.1%28.3%26.2%43.3%35.6%27.7%23.6%22.3%21.7%20.2%19.3%18.1%16.3%0%20%40%60%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CR5(%)CR10(%)2013-2022 CR5 CR10%2022 17 18 19 20 21 22 9.2%7.8%6.6%5.8%5.1%4.1%2.7%3.8%3.4%4.5%4.7%3.9%Aveeno-0.0%0.1%0.4%1.7%2.8%0.7%1.3%2.1%2.5%2.7%2.8%Pigeon 3.5%3.3%3.1%2.8%3.0%2.7%2.1%2.6%3.2%2.5%2.6%2.5%4.0%4.0%3.9%3.7%2.4%2.1%2.9%2.8%2.6%2.4%2.3%1.8%2.3%2.2%2.1%2.0%1.9%1.8%2.7%2.5%2.2%2.0%1.9%1.7%*90 90 2022 70%90 20-32 20-27/28-32 21%/49%90 2023 22 40%2023 2022 4-2023 3 232.2.1*2022 94%92%65%58%24 1/4-5 2=1571 2.2.2 0%100%100%*20 80 14-21 CAGR 19.5%14-21 CAGR 19.5%14-21 26.3 91.5 CAGR 19.5%1 2 25 2.2.226.328.333.743.357.169.480.391.57.6%19.1%28.5%31.9%21.5%15.7%13.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0204060801002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E()yoy(%,)2014-2021E 14-21 CAGR 19.5%*03.26*3.127*+IP 2020 IP 19-21 21 28 2019.92019.102021.4 2020.6 2020.92017.5 2021.12 2020.63.1*3.229+*SKU+3.230 20 21 22 23 2.0 SKU 1.0 3 X 2.0 3+0+20%7.3h7%5.7h9%4.8h*+3.331 2000/20-22 16.42%18.32%19.99%2022 20-22 2022 2023*05000100001500020000250003000035000 2020 2021 2022+3.332 2020-2022 2020-2022 1 C2M 2019-2022 537.95 1041.22 CAGR 24.62%1.48 3.00 CAGR 26.57%22 1.58 0100200300400500600700800900 2020 2021 2022*+2 30/7-11 KA WOWCOLOUR 3.333*2022 106 2020-2022 3.534 2020-2022 2020-2022 0%1%2%3%4%050010001500200025002020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 RUNBEN-4*3.535 7 22 7 1 2 3/4 5 7*10 3.536 8 10 2022 10*22 76%3.537 1 20-22 68.95%67.84%75.69%2 2022 2020-2022 010002000300040005000600070008000 69.0%67.8%75.7%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%2020 2021 2022*3.638 10.50 56 2022 80.56%*3.639 2020-2022 2020-2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%2020 2021 2022 2020-2021 95.24%95.87%22 3911.66 8321.22 1186.57 22 22 80.81%83.91%83.91%2093 2929 1132 2782 3441 922 3912 8321 1187 0100020003000400050006000700080009000 2020 2021 2022*04.40*32.47%38.21%39.14%31.82%37.24%45.59%22 47%8.56 2022+47.04%8.56 20-22 4.43 5.82 8.56 21-22 31.46%47.06%1 2 3 1 20-22 1.69 2.28 2.72 21-22 34.66%19.54%20-22 38.21%39.14%31.82%2 20-22 1.44 2.17 3.9 21-22 50.75%80.03%3 20-22 1.26 1.31 1.46 21-22 4.15%11.78%4.141 2020-2022 2020-2022 38.21%39.14%31.82%20.07%37.24%45.59%21.21%22.50%17.10%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 4.435.828.5631.46%47.06%0%20%40%60%05102020 2021 2022 yoy*22 62%22 61.5%20-22 58.38%/59.89%/61.53%1 2 3 4 5 4.24258.38%59.89%61.53%50%54%58%62%66%01000020000300004000050000600002020 2021 2022 2020-2022 2022 2020 2021 2022 39.24%60.76%59.95%58.73%57.12%80.33%19.67%76.25%76.01%75.21%90.98%9.02%63.55%66.46%69.70%78.73%21.27%58.38%59.89%61.53%*1 20-22 54.29%56.66%56.66%2 20-22 56.02%59.93%62.77%20 32.56%22 42.50%20 33.39%22 44.97%3 20-22 67.04%65.61%67.29%4.243 2020-2022 30%40%50%60%70%80%2020 2021 2022*22 27.09%20-22 0.95 1.34 2.32 21-22 41.33%72.5%21.48%23.09%27.09%21-22+1.61pct+4.00pct 95%1 20-22 0.77 1.08 1.87 17.42%18.54%21.90%2 20-22 0.14 0.22 0.37 3.07%3.80%4.34%4.344 2020-2022 2020-2022 81.08%80.26%80.84%14.27%16.44%16.01%0.95%0.80%0.71%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 21.48%23.09%27.09%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.00.51.01.52.02.52020 2021 2022*22 2.95%4.345 2020-2022 2020-2022 20-22 0.15 0.2 0.25 21-22 42.7%20.74%21 21 268.43 22 20-22 3.32%3.60%2.95%21-22+0.28pct-0.65pct 3.32%3.60%2.95%0%1%2%3%4%0.000.050.100.150.200.250.302020 2021 2022 50.23%46.82%50.43%14.39%14.02%16.84%0.50%12.81%3.54%13.26%12.36%7.65%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022*22 42.86%0.2 20-22 0.1 0.14 0.2 21-22 40%42.86%20-22 2.42%2.34%2.28%21-22-0.08pct-0.06pct 4.346 2020-2022 2020-2022 0%1%2%3%4%00.10.20.32020 2021 2022 58.43%59.60%63.91%27.43%20.22%16.59%3.15%2.18%5.66%7.52%14.60%10.98%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022*22 19%22 32.3%1.54 20-22 0.92 1.17 1.54 21-22 27.06%32.30%22 18.69%20-22 21.39%20.72%18.69%4.447 2020-2022 2020-2022 27.06%32.30%0%10%20%30%40%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.62020 2021 2022 yoy 21.39%20.72%18.69%17%18%19%20%21%22%2020 2021 2022*48 2020-2022 ROE 2020-2022 ROE ROE 2022 ROE+0.67pct 22.15%2020-2022 37.86%21.86%22.15%20-22 1.11 1.15 1.14 20-22 160.17%90.07%103.72%ROE 15%20%25%30%35%40%2020 2021 2022 ROE ROE2020 2021 2022/1.11 1.15 1.14/160.17%90.07%103.72%/21.39%20.72%18.69%ROE 37.86%21.48%22.15%4.5 ROE 2022 ROE+0.67pct 22.15%*05.49*1 2 2020-2022 72.75%70.77%69.14%3 0550*THANKS 8 1 5F 200120 28 A 18 100005 6001 32 05 518026 51 S0100521100009 13122831967 S0100522100001 15051878378 S0100123070030 17621712895*12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%5%5%5%-5%5%5%*52
