20230811_安信证券_商贸零售行业深度分析报告：性价比消费风起奥特莱斯焕生机_33页.pdf
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48.2018-2023Q1.24 49.2018-2023Q1.24 50.2015-2022.24 51.2020-2023Q1.24 52.2020-2023Q1%.25 53.2020-2023Q1.25 54.2014-2021.26 55.17.26 56.26 57.26 58.2018-2023Q1.27 59.2018-2023Q1.27 60.2015-2022.27 61.2020-2023Q1.27 62.2020-2023Q1%.28 63.2020-2023Q1.28/5 64.29 65.2018-2023Q1.29 66.2018-2023Q1.29 67.30 68.30 1.7 2.8 3.9 4 2021 10+.16 5 2022.18 6.23 7 9.25 8 16.28 9.29/6 1.+1.1.+OUTLETS 1 20 70 2 20 80 1 3 20 90 1996 300 4 2000 REITs Tanger 1.2023+60%24 5 70%35%43%36%30%6-8 1-3 3-7/7 1()Armani Bottega Veneta Burberry Dolce&Gabbana GUCCI MONCLER PRADA BALLY VERSACE Montblanc Max Mara BALENCIAGA ARMANI OUTLET FENDI ALEXANDER MCQUEEN BOTTEGA VENETA BVLGARI BALLY BURBERRY DOLCE&GABBANA GIVENCHY GUCCI LOEWE MAX MARA MONTBLANC MONCLER PRADA ROGER VIVIER SAINT LAURENT VALENTINO VERSACE Max Mara GUCCI Emporio Armani VALENTINO BURBERRY Bottega Veneta Salvatore Ferragamo GIVENCHY MIU MIU Max Mara BALLY CERRUTI 1881 JIMMY CHOO I.T MICHAEL KORS Kate Spade SW Dunhill Dsquared2 KENZO MOSCHINO TORY BURCH Braun Buffel Furla TODS Zegna Ralph Lauren Polo COACH DKNY DANIEL HECHTER BROOKS BROTHERS CERRUTI 1881 HUGO BOSS PORTS ELLASSAY Acne Studios COACH CALVIN KLEIN DKNY DANIEL HECHTER FURLA KATE SPADE LONGCHAMP MAJE MOSCHINO PINKO SANDRO SW TORY BURCH THEORY BROOKS BROTHERS HUGO BOSS PORTS PORTS 1961 Marisfrolg ISSEY MIYAKE MICHAEL KORS FURLA COACH I.T BROOKS BROTHERS DANIEL HECHTER CERRUTI 1881 HUGO BOSS G2000 COACH MICHAEL KORS FURLA Braun Buffel Zegna Calvin Klein Jeans Hugo Boss PORTS Kent&Curwen MARYLING TRANOI Marisfrolg JORYA EP FEIZI JOYRA SLY&MOUSSY JNBY FION LACOSTE FIVE PLUS LILY MO&Co MOUSSY MISS SIXTY POLO RALPH LAUREN TRENDIANO VICTORIA S SECRET ICICLE MO&Co JNBY MISS SIXTY EP LACOSTE DAZZLE TRENDIANO VERO MODA POLO broadcast MISS SIXTY SLY JNBY STELLALUNA MARYLING EP MOUSSY DAZZLE SELECTED NINE WEST Tata lesaunda NIKE Under Armour Y-3 Adidas Originals ASICS SKECHERS NEW BALANCE Vans HUSH PUPPIES CONVERSE COLUMBIA CROCS FILA HUSH PUPPIES LI NING NIKE NEW BALANCE SKECHERS THE NORTH FACE FILA HUSH PUPPIES ADIDAS CROCS JEEP COLUMBIA NEW BALANCE LINING NIKE PUMA THE NORTH FACE ANTA NIKE ADIDAS FILA COLUMBIA SKECHERS NEW BALANCE PUMA CONVERSE LI NING YOUNG CORCS BAPE Champion Dr.Martens GAP BOY LONDON Charles&Keith Timberland KENZO I.T OUTLET BOY LONDON GAP OUTLET HOLLISTER TOMMY HILFIGER UNDER ARMOUR UGG TOMMY HILFIGER GAP Timberland MLB Champion TOMMY HILFIGER BOY PaulFrank UGG LEV S STARBUCKS GODIVA STARBUCKS COSTA COFFEE DQ Bella Vita Restaurant Venchi luckin coffee STARBUCKS SUBWAY TODAY Ya Kun Coffee&Toast BMW LIFESTYLE Kidsland UME DYSON HUAWEI/ESTEE LAUDER INNISFREE LA PERLA SEPHORA SASA benefit Sasa 2.S/A/B 24 5/8 2/Adidas 221.4/439.0 5.1 221.4/439.0 5.1 599.0/1199.0 5 59.4/229.0 2.6 239.0/1599.0 1.5 119.0/1189.0 1 279.3/399.0 7 50.7/169.0 3 629.0/699.0 9 119.6/299.0 4 279.3/399.0 7 359.0/399.0 9 Coach 2268.0/6300.0(3.6)2970.0/4950.0 6 1980.0/6300.0 3.1 3250.0/6500.0 5 1680.0/5300.0 3.1 3450.0/6900.0 5 UGG 649.0/1299.0 5 699.0/999.0 7 399.0/999.0 4 779.0/1299.0 6 999.0/1199.0 8.3 1039.0/1299.0 8 Champion 412.0/589.0 7 276.0/789.0 3.5 275.0/789.0 3.5 199.0/489.0 4.1 394.0/789.0 5 131.0/269.0 4.9 274.0/548.0 5-547.0/1368.0 4 684.0/1368.0 5-509.0/728.0 7 MK 3500.0/7000.0 5 2900.0/5800.0 5-1299.0/6200.0 2.1 1500.0/6000.0 2.5-/9 1.2.VS VS 1 2 3 4 10%16-17%20%3 1 2 3 3./10 2.&2.1.2002-2005 2002 1-2 2006-2012 10 2013-2020 RDM 2021-20 2022 226 3 2071 2022 2100 4.2022 2.2.2020 16-24 23Q1 2020/11 5.6.16-24,Wind,Wind,7.8.Wind Puma Coach Adidas Nike 9.Wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0200040006000800010000120001400016000 yoy(%)051015202518-0118-0418-0718-1019-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0421-0721-1022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-04:16-24%:25-59%010203040506070%)02040608010012014018-0118-0418-0718-1019-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0421-0721-1022-0122-0422-0722-1023-012.02.53.03.54.04.5FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022Puma Coach Adidas Nike/12 2.3.BCG 12 6-12/68%10.12%-%11.12 vs 6-12 BCG 2023H1 BCG 2023H1 2020-2022 2022 8.0%23Q1 30.6%12.2020-2022 13.%2020 5%-3%30%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%68%26%20%19%18%16%8%1%0%0%-15%-21%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%/O2O/8.0%15.0%8.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%2020 2021 2022-100-80-60-40-20020402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1/13 14.%15.%2020 12%2020 20 80 90 1993 Tanger 15 16.1970-2022 GDP%17.1990-2022 GDP%Wind,Wind,(30)(20)(10)0102030402018 2019 2021 2022 2023Q1-30-20-10010202019 2020 2021 2022-4-202468101214197019731976197919821985198819911994199720002003200620092012201520182021-8-6-4-2024681019901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022/14 18.Wind,1 Tanger Tanger 2 Tanger 2020/2020 2021 2019 3 19.Wind,4 3 020406080100120-10-505101520253035402007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 Tanger%05101520253035404550-50-40-30-20-100102030%:()%/15 3.&3.1.10+20.10+2022-2023 2022 2022 16 16 15 14 9 RDM 7 77 34%2017-2021 10 2021 50 2021 10+28 550 21.2020-2022 2022 13 14169141678913141510121467731.87%35.38%34.07%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01020304050607080902020 2021 2022 RDM/16 22.10+23.2022 4 2021 10+50+40+RDM Asia 30+RDM Asia 20+10+MALL RDM Asia RDM Asia 1081 109 9020161332022123202410921051015202510+20+30+40+50+2017 2018 2019 2020 2021华东,39.6%西南,12.7%华中,11.9%华北,10.3%华南,9.1%西北,8.4%东北,8.1%/17 2022+3.2.2022 4 2023 24.2022 3 25.2022()()商业一线,17.60%商业准一线,20.60%商业二线,29.50%商业三线及以下,32.20%/18 5 2022 15 6 7.5 16 11 16 37 20 10 26.2013-2022 1 27.2023 1 3.3.+0510152025302013201420152016201720182019202020212022 商业一线,23.08%商业准一线,19.23%商业二线,7.69%商业三线,15.38%商业四线,11.54%商业五线,23.08%/19 28.%24 5 3.4.+3.4.1.+N/IP 2021/60.0%/34.9%/5.1%29.2021 30.2021 46.2%2022 2022 2021 68.2%31.8%2016 05101520253035 60.0%34.9%5.1%68.6%26.3%5.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%53.8%46.2%56.4%43.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%/20 A*(1+N)*DT ART=1=N=DT=31.32.33.2021/34.2021 24 5 24 5 35.36.2023 68.211.2 11.87.61.276.610.110.40.92.0020406080100%00.511.522.50500100015002000250030003500%/21 2 1-3 1 1863 2 4352 1.5 37.38.39.40.3.4.2.IP IP IP 2015 IP IP 22 4/22 41.IP 42.43.44.3.4.3.96.7%2023 2021 2022 3 500 10/23 45.46.6 SaaS SaaS+2022 2023 Q1 40%47.96.7%73.3%61.1%28.9%25.6%12.2%11.1%/APP PC/24 4.4.1.23H1 2004 2011 2014 2023 3.0-3.6-1.2 2.5-3.0-1.3 48.2018-2023Q1 49.2018-2023Q1 Q1 2006 2023H1 9 7 2 92.06 2015 6.6%2022 18.7%23Q1 3.73 2020 2.7%3.9%30.6%0.8%0.1%2019 136%2020 70%23Q1 77.3%2020 50.2015-2022 51.2020-2023Q1 2020 2020,52 53-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy%0%5%10%15%20%0204060801002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%0%1%2%3%4%5%0246810122020 2021 2022 2023Q1%/25 52.2020-2023Q1%53.2020-2023Q1 7 9 2006.4.28 113,480 2012.12.18 141,298/2013.6.29 117,333 2015.9.26 113,911 2016.12.24 53,008 2018.9.30 120,000 2019.3.29 78,995 2021.10.15 132,385 2022.7.30 50,172 2006 30-40 A CUCCI PRADA BURBERRY B C 17 2021 50 4500 17 77.35 76.7572.1777.300501002020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 2022 2023Q1/26 54.2014-2021 55.17 2012+63m 56.57.REITs 2022 100%115,185 REITs 2023 7 12 REITs 20 8 REITs+REITs 4.2.5+2 3.0 5+2 1955 67 2022-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%01020304050602014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy%/27 35 75 449.25 5+2 2023 4.9-5.4 29%-42%4.5-5.0 180%-212%58.2018-2023Q1 59.2018-2023Q1 23Q1 2023H1 12 16 7 3 2 1 118.55 63.2%36.8%2015 4.18%2022 26.39%23Q1 5.3 2020 9.1%2023Q1 15.8%30.6%-7.1%-2.4%1-4+93%2020 2022 70%23Q1 70.3%60.2015-2022 61.2020-2023Q1 2020 2020,62 63-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0501001502002503002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%02468101214162018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0204060801001201402015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%0%5%10%15%20%051015202020 2021 2022 2023Q1/28 62.2020-2023Q1%63.2020-2023Q1 8 16 2002 12 9.7 30 2004 12 3.2 15 2004 12 4.8 20 2009 7 4.4-2012 8 14.9-2013 12 8.8-2015 9 1.9 2016 10 5.6 15 2016 12 7.8-2016 12 9 20 2018 12 9.8-2019 9 6.9 20 2021 12 8.1 15 2021 11 10-2022 1 3.4 20 2022 7 10.25-2021 2022 1.0 2.0 3.0 2019 3.0 50%UP TOWN 23 12 20 600 6:4 34/25 20 69.24 69.70 64.40 70.32 0204060802020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 2023Q1/29 64.4.3.7-ElEVEn 2023Q1 3.7/-43.2%0.4/-34.5%2.4 27.5 65.2018-2023Q1 66.2018-2023Q1 9 2011.01.23 11.5 2015.09.30 8.6 2022.05.31 7.43 2011 1-5 2015 2015 5-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%010203040506070802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0123452018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy%/30 10 2022 70 402 67.68./31 5.10+N REITs 1.0 3.0 6.1 2 3/32 6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%A 6 300 B 6 300/33 19 33 518026 638 3 200080 2 15 100034
