20230718_国海证券_电力设备行业一带一路电力新基建系列专题之储能：亚非拉分布式储能刚需有望迎来快速增长元年_26页.pdf
()()S0350521120006 S 2023 07 18 2 3 2023 1*2023-05-15*2022-12-21 2022*2022-06-13*2022-05-18*2022-02-231ZDWxOtOnOqRoQnOnQqPqRbRcMaQpNpPsQsRkPpPoRkPmNxO6MrQsOxNmMqRvPoPvN3 2023/07/18 EPS PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E603556.SH 海兴电力 26.63 1.36 1.61 1.95 12.94 16.55 13.65 未评级605117.SH 德业股份 135.94 6.35 6.50 9.43 52.16 20.90 14.42 买入688345.SH 博力威 36.79 1.10 1.63 2.60 47.70 22.57 14.15 买入 Wind wind 4+126GW 170GW 2030 21.7 5 2030 306GWh 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 6 1.1 1.2 1.3 71+“+”“”81.1 IEA IEA 2020 2021 IEA 2010 2019 IEA IEA-Senelec-REGIDESO-EUCL-TANESCO-ZESCO-ESCOM-SONABEL-lkeja-EDS-ENDE-Kaduna-Eneo-JIRAMA-ECG-EDM-EDM-KPLC-Eskom-CIE-Umeme-EEU-NIGELEC GDP 91.1 World Bank 2015-2020 SAIDI 30-65 ALJAZEERA 2022“”6 2023 2 9 France 24 2020 EDL 23 2022 2022 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-64.28-44.02 30.53Kano-1812 1764 1421 742-18.92 2.58 2.09 4.48 4.03 3.72-89.60 SAIDI h 101.2 2016 2500 IFC 2016 2500 IFC 340 650 530 450GW 350GW 20%25%50%36%10%9%8%5%4%IFC 2016 IFC 2016 IFC MW 111.2 0.2-0.5/kWh IFC 0.2-0.5/kWh“+”IFC 10-100 IFC 2016 IFC 2016 IFC 121.2 Hitachi Energy BESS(MW/MWh)PV(MWp)M.$(h/yr)(L/yr)M.$/yr M.$/yr M.$/yr M.$/yr LCOE$/MWh IRR(%)(yr)-+236 44,500 0.62 0.044 0.21 0.87 203+BESS 1.125/0.25 0.55 165 43,600 0.62 0.043 0.01 0.67 177 35%2.7(%)-71-30%-900-2.0%00%-0.001-2.0-0.20-95%-0.20-23%-26-13%+PV 0.98 0.98 207 28,500 0.42 0.028 0.21 0.65 190 20%4.5(%)-29-12%-16,000-36%-0.2-32%-0.016-36%00%-0.22-25%-13-6%+BESS+PV 1.125/0.25 0.98 1.53 199 24,500 0.40 0.024 0.01 0.45 163 26%3.6(%)-37-16%-20,000-45%-0.22-35%-0.020-45%-0.20-95%-0.42-48%-40-20%Hitachi Energy+BESS+PV LCOE IRR 26%3.6 Auroville 131.3 Lazard ESMAP/ESMAP IEA 141.3 ESMAP ESMAP 2022 4800 21500 29400 95%99%1km 1,000/29.1 ESMAP 2018 LCOE 0.55/kWh 2021 0.38/kWh 22%2025 0.30/kWh 22%2030 0.20/kWh 40%38%0.30/kWh 39 24 0.20/kWh ESMAP 230kW 758kWh 91%-94%286kW 690kWh 2018 2021 CAPEX$1,160,000 847,000 1099 793 kWp 228 286 kWh 887 690 kWh 890 758 kWfirm 207 230$/kWfirm 5,604 3,659LCOE$/kWh 0.55 0.38 151.3 ESMAP ESMAP 22%80%2021 LCOE 0.38/kWh 0.23/kWh ESMAP 100 9 LCOE LCOE 16 2.1 2.2 172.1 IFC 1 2 0.5kW 1 2 2500 2000 500 IFC 2016 2000 75%500 20%90%2016 IFC 3-5kW 60kW 60-300kW 300kW 18 2.1 IFC 126GW 170GW 2016 400h 400h IFC 42GW 126GW 41GW 227GW 16TWh 53TWh 10TWh 53TWh 378h 421h 249h 231h 170GW IFC 100GW 10TWh 100h 314h 2016 IFC 2016 IFC 192.1 IFC IFC HS 85076000 2023 2 202.2 ESMAP SDG7 2030 21.7 5 ESMAP 2030 5 4.3 6000 2030 306GWh ESMAP 1304kW 255GW 40%3h 306GWh()(kW)GW(GWh)2021 21557 540 11.64 29353 1304 38.282030 217000 195443 1304 254.86 305.83 21 3.1 3.2 223.1 2022 2022 241,835.64 354.19%3kW-100kW 2023 1-5 23.8 655.2%1.9 138.2%90 46 Goal Zero DURACELL 233.2 IFC 2019 9 2016 2016 24,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%4 4 4 2 2022 25 R3/28F 518041 0755-83706353 C1 200023 021-61981300 168 25F 100044 010-88576597
